Just so happens that a lot of our mistakes made so far with this Virus has to do with the lack of knowledge the trump administration has.
If you see above...in 2018 he dismantled the pandemic team. Amongst many other things posted above. All FACTUAL information.
The facts can get lost here. This thread is to help with that.
If you see above...in 2018 he dismantled the pandemic team. Amongst many other things posted above. All FACTUAL information.
The facts can get lost here. This thread is to help with that.
He already quoted it earlier in this thread. It's from the OP article.
"But Trump already seems to be wavering. In recent days, he has signaled that he is prepared to backtrack on social-distancing policies in a bid to protect the economy. Pundits and business leaders have used similar rhetoric, arguing that high-risk people, such as the elderly, could be protected while lower-risk people are allowed to go back to work. Such thinking is seductive, but flawed. It overestimates our ability to assess a person’s risk, and to somehow wall off the ‘high-risk’ people from the rest of society. It underestimates how badly the virus can hit ‘low-risk’ groups, and how thoroughly hospitals will be overwhelmed if even just younger demographics are falling sick.
A recent analysis from the University of Pennsylvania estimated that even if social-distancing measures can reduce infection rates by 95 percent, 960,000 Americans will still need intensive care. There are only about 180,000 ventilators in the U.S. and, more pertinently, only enough respiratory therapists and critical-care staff to safely look after 100,000 ventilated patients. Abandoning social distancing would be foolish. Abandoning it now, when tests and protective equipment are still scarce, would be catastrophic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
Not political in the post or ever at all. And I agree that a random backtrack on social distancing would not be great. I posted this elsewhere here, but some of these numbers make me scratch my head.
Not saying this couldn't happen. However, I would love to know the math behind the 960K of Americans needing intensive care.
Let's assume that 1 in every 5 cases needs a ventilator. Not sure how close that is, but whatever. That means that there will be 4.8M cases in the US, or 1.5% of the population.
Italy is now at a rate 0.12% of cases/population. So, we would need 12 times worse than Italy current pace to have that happen. Again, it could happen, but it seems very high to me.
A different math equation, but also one that makes this number seem unlikely. We are now at 75K cases, with yesterday a peak of 13K new cases a day. To get to 4.8M cases for the country, we would need 4.8M less 75K more. If we did 13K a day every day, it would take 3,686 days to get there. That is 10 years.
A lot of educated people taking stabs on how bad this could be. I am sure a lot of educated people taking stabs on how bad this isn't. I think a good exercise is to vet these numbers out to see if they make sense before making them.
Not saying this couldn't happen. However, I would love to know the math behind the 960K of Americans needing intensive care.
Let's assume that 1 in every 5 cases needs a ventilator. Not sure how close that is, but whatever. That means that there will be 4.8M cases in the US, or 1.5% of the population.
Italy is now at a rate 0.12% of cases/population. So, we would need 12 times worse than Italy current pace to have that happen. Again, it could happen, but it seems very high to me.
A different math equation, but also one that makes this number seem unlikely. We are now at 75K cases, with yesterday a peak of 13K new cases a day. To get to 4.8M cases for the country, we would need 4.8M less 75K more. If we did 13K a day every day, it would take 3,686 days to get there. That is 10 years.
A lot of educated people taking stabs on how bad this could be. I am sure a lot of educated people taking stabs on how bad this isn't. I think a good exercise is to vet these numbers out to see if they make sense before making them.
Thank you sir. I am sure Hache just had some rats complaining to him so he had to address it in a sense. Understandable.
I think it is important to note there are a lot of people who aren’t reported as infected. I think the numbers represent the future and what we project based on everything. Not just the numbers now. He talks about in the article how late the US were on testing, identifying, and tracking. There are many studies being done on the number of people that are really infected. Based on the growth of the virus over time I think is how they get to that number.
I am not surprised by today's higher numbers. They will continue to spike upwards. Italy peaked at 29 days after first reported. That pace puts our peak day at April 4, which is a week from Saturday. Expect higher numbers day after day until then, and possibly after. Hopefully at that point, the numbers begin to level and then drop. Our death rate remains low at 1.44% of total cases. I hope that stays constant, or even drops as we go.
I still don't believe some of the higher estimates that people are using, as the data to me doesn't support it. However, as new numbers come in, that could change. There is also a bit of optimism in my thoughts, as seeing these gloom and doom estimates are difficult. I am in agreement with most here that we all need to do our part, and simply pray, as I think we all want the same outcome, no matter who we politically support.
I still don't believe some of the higher estimates that people are using, as the data to me doesn't support it. However, as new numbers come in, that could change. There is also a bit of optimism in my thoughts, as seeing these gloom and doom estimates are difficult. I am in agreement with most here that we all need to do our part, and simply pray, as I think we all want the same outcome, no matter who we politically support.
