[h=1]How Vegas experts view PIT-CAR[/h][h=3]Line analysis, ATS picks from handicappers on Sunday night's game[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Jeff Gold[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
The Carolina Panthers were everyone's "regression to the mean" team this season. Coming off a 12-4 record last season, which included a 5-0 record in games decided by four points or fewer, their season O/U total in Vegas was eight. Now they're 2-0 (2-0 ATS) including a win without [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cam Newton[/FONT].
There were questions about the Panthers' receiving corps, especially after the departure of Steve Smith, but Greg Olsen is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league, with 148 yards through two games, and rookie Kelvin Benjamin has been excellent thus far. His 138 yards are second-best among rookies, only behind top-five pick Sammy Watkins.
On defense, Carolina has been stingy, allowing just 21 points. They will be without Greg Hardy, likely for the rest of the year, after he was placed on the NFL's exempt list.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a fortunate 1-1 (0-2 ATS). Since the first half of Week 1, they've been outscored 50-9, and don't look like a team ready to make the playoffs for the first time in three years, even in the weak AFC. One bright spot for the Steelers thus far has been the play of Le'Veon Bell, who leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 304.
Now let's turn to Las Vegas and get some insight from our wiseguy friends.
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers minus-3.5
Total: Opened 41.5; now 42
Jay Kornegay says: Carolina opened up a field goal favorite over the visiting Steelers this past Sunday. Shortly thereafter, Carolina jumped up to a "split line" minus-3.5 (even). Most of the market dropped the Panthers down to minus-3 (even) on Monday morning as some Pittsburgh money showed up at the betting windows. Carolina money started to get momentum midweek and drove the line back up to minus-3.5. Since then the bigger pops have been on Pittsburgh, and the line has settled at Carolina minus-3 (-120).
I think we'll see many different versions of minus-3 and minus-3.5 leading up to kickoff. There is no doubt the public will be supporting the Panthers, and the line will be a healthy minus-3.5 by kickoff. It wouldn't surprise me to see a couple of minus-4s show up late Sunday night.
The total opened at 41.5 and is currently holding at 42.
Sal Selvaggio says: I took plus-3.5 on Pittsburgh early in the week, and as long as you're getting three or more, you're getting value. My model only favors the Panthers by 1.5 points, and after seeing Tampa Bay get smoked on Thursday (the Panthers' week 1 opponent) that updated number is lower. Carolina is already plus-6 in the turnover margin, while the Steelers are minus-4. That's classic good luck versus bad luck. The Panthers will be without stud DE Hardy for the foreseeable future, and while the defense looked good in the first game without him, it's still a big loss. With a few extra days' rest for Pittsburgh, the spot looks really good for them to put in a big effort and come away with a win, or at the very least a cover.
ATS pick: Steelers
Wunderdog says: The Steelers fit a very strong situation for this game. Teams that are off a road loss and then are road underdogs in their next game are 191-126-4 ATS since 2004. On top of that, Pittsburgh has stepped up on the road against teams with a winning home record, going 6-2 ATS in their past eight.
ATS pick: Steelers
Dave Tuley says: Pittsburgh put in a clunker at Baltimore on Sept. 11 after mostly dominating Cleveland in the opener (though they allowed the backdoor cover). This should be a defensive battle, but I'll take Ben Roethlisberger to escape pressure and come up with the big play. If it comes down to a field goal, that's fine by me.
ATS pick: Steelers
Jeff Gold
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Jeff Gold[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
The Carolina Panthers were everyone's "regression to the mean" team this season. Coming off a 12-4 record last season, which included a 5-0 record in games decided by four points or fewer, their season O/U total in Vegas was eight. Now they're 2-0 (2-0 ATS) including a win without [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cam Newton[/FONT].
There were questions about the Panthers' receiving corps, especially after the departure of Steve Smith, but Greg Olsen is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league, with 148 yards through two games, and rookie Kelvin Benjamin has been excellent thus far. His 138 yards are second-best among rookies, only behind top-five pick Sammy Watkins.
On defense, Carolina has been stingy, allowing just 21 points. They will be without Greg Hardy, likely for the rest of the year, after he was placed on the NFL's exempt list.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a fortunate 1-1 (0-2 ATS). Since the first half of Week 1, they've been outscored 50-9, and don't look like a team ready to make the playoffs for the first time in three years, even in the weak AFC. One bright spot for the Steelers thus far has been the play of Le'Veon Bell, who leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 304.
Now let's turn to Las Vegas and get some insight from our wiseguy friends.
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers minus-3.5
Total: Opened 41.5; now 42
Jay Kornegay says: Carolina opened up a field goal favorite over the visiting Steelers this past Sunday. Shortly thereafter, Carolina jumped up to a "split line" minus-3.5 (even). Most of the market dropped the Panthers down to minus-3 (even) on Monday morning as some Pittsburgh money showed up at the betting windows. Carolina money started to get momentum midweek and drove the line back up to minus-3.5. Since then the bigger pops have been on Pittsburgh, and the line has settled at Carolina minus-3 (-120).
I think we'll see many different versions of minus-3 and minus-3.5 leading up to kickoff. There is no doubt the public will be supporting the Panthers, and the line will be a healthy minus-3.5 by kickoff. It wouldn't surprise me to see a couple of minus-4s show up late Sunday night.
The total opened at 41.5 and is currently holding at 42.
Sal Selvaggio says: I took plus-3.5 on Pittsburgh early in the week, and as long as you're getting three or more, you're getting value. My model only favors the Panthers by 1.5 points, and after seeing Tampa Bay get smoked on Thursday (the Panthers' week 1 opponent) that updated number is lower. Carolina is already plus-6 in the turnover margin, while the Steelers are minus-4. That's classic good luck versus bad luck. The Panthers will be without stud DE Hardy for the foreseeable future, and while the defense looked good in the first game without him, it's still a big loss. With a few extra days' rest for Pittsburgh, the spot looks really good for them to put in a big effort and come away with a win, or at the very least a cover.
ATS pick: Steelers
Wunderdog says: The Steelers fit a very strong situation for this game. Teams that are off a road loss and then are road underdogs in their next game are 191-126-4 ATS since 2004. On top of that, Pittsburgh has stepped up on the road against teams with a winning home record, going 6-2 ATS in their past eight.
ATS pick: Steelers
Dave Tuley says: Pittsburgh put in a clunker at Baltimore on Sept. 11 after mostly dominating Cleveland in the opener (though they allowed the backdoor cover). This should be a defensive battle, but I'll take Ben Roethlisberger to escape pressure and come up with the big play. If it comes down to a field goal, that's fine by me.
ATS pick: Steelers
Jeff Gold
