wow, i never knew a gambling quiz would ever consist of only 2 questions. What's with the 2 questions only? So basically, these 2 questions is what's going to decide if a gambler is sharp or not. I think there's more than that in distinguishing whether a guy is sharp or not. Usually a quiz consists of anywhere from 10 to 100 questions, not 2 questions...
I thought it would be difficult.
Any decent player knew those questions.
Pinnacle often makes me laugh with some of their half time lines.
Say a team is winning by 5 they will offer +5.5 when everyone else is +4.5 so they get a lot of dumb action.
People keep betting +5.5 -120 at pinnacle when they can buy +4.5 -110
You would be amazed how many so called smart people do that.
Any decent player knew those questions.
Pinnacle often makes me laugh with some of their half time lines.
Say a team is winning by 5 they will offer +5.5 when everyone else is +4.5 so they get a lot of dumb action.
People keep betting +5.5 -120 at pinnacle when they can buy +4.5 -110
You would be amazed how many so called smart people do that.
Fezzik states that in Answer 1 that each half point is worth around eight cents. I believe that number is based upon a large number of years for all teams combined. He also states that "No basketball game could ever be projected to ‘land’ on one or two often enough to justify paying an extra 33 cents in vigorish just to play a game plus two rather than ‘pick’."
I do believe however that it is possible to adjust the 8 cents per half point up or down based upon the 2 teams playing using the recent history of each team. Using years of data for all teams is not accurate if a team's recent performance is significantly different.
I do believe however that it is possible to adjust the 8 cents per half point up or down based upon the 2 teams playing using the recent history of each team. Using years of data for all teams is not accurate if a team's recent performance is significantly different.
If there is interest, I will put together a longer test.
I know there were only two questions, but I picked questions that I felt would be sufficient to identify the strongest players. I imagine most who took it won't get both questions right.
As for the "8 cents per 1/2 point". Lurker is right that the first 8 cents is worth less than 8 cents. However each progressive extra 1/2 point you capture gets worth more. I simplified the answer and just used 8 cents for all (close enough to get an approximate answer).
I know there were only two questions, but I picked questions that I felt would be sufficient to identify the strongest players. I imagine most who took it won't get both questions right.
As for the "8 cents per 1/2 point". Lurker is right that the first 8 cents is worth less than 8 cents. However each progressive extra 1/2 point you capture gets worth more. I simplified the answer and just used 8 cents for all (close enough to get an approximate answer).
There is a lot more to being sharp than being able to discuss the value of half points. Simply knowing how to handicap a game goes a long way. Understanding money management, having - reliable sources of information, winning betting stradegies, and most of all discipline, are all part of being a sharp bettor. Instinct is another important but elusive talent that is required by sharp players. Winning in the long run while difficult, is not necessarily impossible, it just requires a lot of hard work.
wil.
wil.
Don't even get me started with money management issues!
Many "experts" feel proper money managment is to bet small and to bet about the same on all games.
The optimal money managment method: Bet proportional to your advantage, gets whacked by many texts as authors made ridiculous statements like "Kelly proportional betting does not work in sports".
Don't blame poor Kelly. Rather, blame the guys who have no clue how to estimate their chance of winning an individual bet!
Many "experts" feel proper money managment is to bet small and to bet about the same on all games.
The optimal money managment method: Bet proportional to your advantage, gets whacked by many texts as authors made ridiculous statements like "Kelly proportional betting does not work in sports".
Don't blame poor Kelly. Rather, blame the guys who have no clue how to estimate their chance of winning an individual bet!
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by lurkerforages:
Give me any NBA team at +7.5 when pinnacle is +6.
No capping there.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
________
I'll tell you what, I will even take +7 when pinnacle is +6 and I will be able to retire on an island with 2 maids and a servant.
Give me any NBA team at +7.5 when pinnacle is +6.
No capping there.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
________
I'll tell you what, I will even take +7 when pinnacle is +6 and I will be able to retire on an island with 2 maids and a servant.
it's a good test because alot of people here will come out looking sharp (deep down they must know they aren't. but still they bet
)
i agree with wilheim. takes so much more, patience, not pushing it being the key.
one thing that helps to keep my turnover down is the amount of smoking i do, u may like to try it if u r betting too much.. point being: go slow. the more you bet the more you lose your edge.
now i just surf around for my picks, and bet the ones that come on tv.
cheers.
i agree with wilheim. takes so much more, patience, not pushing it being the key.
one thing that helps to keep my turnover down is the amount of smoking i do, u may like to try it if u r betting too much.. point being: go slow. the more you bet the more you lose your edge.
now i just surf around for my picks, and bet the ones that come on tv.
cheers.
