How much of a "bounce" will Obama get coming out of the DNC?

[JoeContrarian]

Traditionally, 10-15 points is the norm.

If Obama can't manage to distance himself from McCain and seal the presidential deal after a week of 24-7 non-stop MSM swooning, I'd say he's toast.

Back in the spring, when America was just getting to know The Messiah, I honestly expected him to be up at least 10 points going into both conventions. I guess more Americans are paying attention at this early stage than I believed.

Mile High Stadium will be the final opportunity for Obama to make his case to the American people using his precious pacifier (teleprompter). He needs a sizable cushion coming out of the convention because we already know he'll be a gaffe machine during the rest of campaign and during the debates.

Love him or hate him, "the speech" will be the most pivotal moment for the Obama camp during this campaign -- assuming he hasn't already blown it.

I wonder if the Chosen One will crack under all this pressure and lay a turd next Thursday.

:nohead:

 

[Dave007inVegas]

Everyone needs to pay attention to the sermon. I’m sure he will spell out all the things he wants to do but I doubt you’ll get a lot of how. Utopia here we come.

 

[BetIt]

Can anyone post the actual #'s of the past

People say 10-15 points but what they're missing is both of these guys are already in the mid 40s (anywhere from 44-47 depending on the poll). That isn't much wiggle room for a bounce.

I'd imagine in years past there were a much larger percentage of undecided voters...hence more room for a bounce.

With the wall to wall coverage and extended primary....looks like less and less undecided voters

 

[gtc08]

there's no such thing as a post convention bounce. only terminology that bots like joe c use on us that they get from cnn and the other outlets.

 

[BetIt]

Well I do call the "norm" being 10-15 bullshit

Cnn I think cited one election in the article I read (I could be wrong here)

anyway...sick of hearing about the f*cking horserace

It's utterly useless at this point anyways

I mean they usually get the "bounce" because of more coverage...people start to learn more about the person/party and pay more attention. With the extended primary....and both guys in mid 40s...I don't think there is much more room for a bounce

In fact, I'd imagine it stays in the 45-48 range up until early October.

 

[BetIt]

ha

maybe these idiots should research shit instead of just copy and paste their talking points

re: clinton's 15 point bounce

Clinton's 1992 gain was magnified by the fact that Ross Perot quit his third-party campaign just as the Democratic convention ended, a temporary retreat since he later returned to the race. And the Democrats had a full month to milk their convention benefits before Republicans held their meeting.

 

[BetIt]

Let's do some more research

2004- Kerrry lost one point
2000- Gore gained 8

THE NORM...........................10-15

 

[PatPatriot]

The speech will be in the top ten in the pop charts and last just as long.

We should start a list of "hooks' and buzz words and phrases that'll be used in his speech....I'll start
"hope and change"
"better future"
"...for the children"

 

[BetIt]

10-15 the norm...........

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080820Bounce1_kjmnbvc.gif

 

[BetIt]

It is unclear at this point whether 2004 marks the start of a trend away from post-convention bounces, or is a historical anomaly. One thing that distinguishes 2004 from earlier elections is that voters were already tuned in to the campaign well before the conventions took place and likely already had given some thought to how they would vote. Thus, the happenings of the conventions arguably would have had little effect on their preferences.

In earlier elections, the conventions may have been the first time that many voters began to pay attention to the presidential race, and thus their preferences were more subject to change. So far, 2008 looks more like 2004 than earlier elections in terms of pre-convention voter interest levels, and if the convention bounces of 1964 through 2000 were largely a product of low pre-convention levels of voter attention, then there may not be big surges in candidate support this year.

Typically, Gallup finds candidates gaining 5 points in the polls after their conventions, though it is far from a guarantee that the candidates will receive bounces of that size in 2008.

There are a number of factors that could lead to smaller-than-usual convention bounces this year, most notably the tightly compressed convention schedule, with the GOP Convention beginning just four days after the Democratic Convention ends. Also, it is rumored that McCain will announce his vice presidential running mate the day after the Democratic Convention ends, stealing away some of the political spotlight from Obama the day after he gives his presidential nomination acceptance speech. Lastly, the high level of early voter attention may also reduce the potential for significant shifts in voter preferences after the conventions.

 

[Snookslayer]

Everyone needs to pay attention to the sermon.

Funny you call it sermon, because Obama does sound like a fiery minister delivering fire and brimstone speaches. He'd probably be wise to tone it down a little for the convention.

 

[Snookslayer]

The speech will be in the top ten in the pop charts and last just as long.

We should start a list of "hooks' and buzz words and phrases that'll be used in his speech....I'll start
"hope and change"
"better future"
"...for the children"

We probably won't hear the words: "... inflate your tires."

 

[Risk44]

I hope it stays close so it motivates the Democrats to mobilize and Vote.. im sure that will happen.. its a liberal conspiracy to make it look close so all the dems vote..

 

[Dave007inVegas]

The speech will be in the top ten in the pop charts and last just as long.

We should start a list of "hooks' and buzz words and phrases that'll be used in his speech....I'll start
"hope and change"
"better future"
"...for the children"

Fuck! Why did it have to rain.

 

[Dave007inVegas]

Funny you call it sermon, because Obama does sound like a fiery minister delivering fire and brimstone speaches. He'd probably be wise to tone it down a little for the convention.

That's what 20 years of Jeremiah will do to you.