different books...different theories on moving off key numbers.....
old school shops wouldnt budge off a key number regardless of how onesided they got.....
now days shops that move off a key number usually add x-tra juice......
asking a offshore book how much money it takes to move a number....is like pulling teeth........doubt you will get many answers..
old school shops wouldnt budge off a key number regardless of how onesided they got.....
now days shops that move off a key number usually add x-tra juice......
asking a offshore book how much money it takes to move a number....is like pulling teeth........doubt you will get many answers..
I've noticed that smaller books only move their numbers when the bigger books move theirs.
The major books (like Pinnacle) move it on the basis of the ratio of the current bet to the total action received on the game so far, or so it seems. The more major the game and the later the bet is placed, the more money it takes to move the line.
Sometimes a $1000 bet by me moves the line by 5 cents (on hockey totals a few hours before game time), other times it moves it by 1 cent (on september baseball, unimportant game), other times not at all (late bet, major games)
The major books (like Pinnacle) move it on the basis of the ratio of the current bet to the total action received on the game so far, or so it seems. The more major the game and the later the bet is placed, the more money it takes to move the line.
Sometimes a $1000 bet by me moves the line by 5 cents (on hockey totals a few hours before game time), other times it moves it by 1 cent (on september baseball, unimportant game), other times not at all (late bet, major games)
Wait a sec here, are you saying that when the lines were 3, your books had 2.5 and 3.5? Well, I'll say this, your question should be if these books are solid or not. I doubt you are playing with a book that is good if they are offering you those numbers. Sounds to me like a bush league book, and are only looking for action and favoring a side they like so you can be forced to bet the other side of what they like. This place seems very shady Genesis. Is it safe to say that this is a book that is not too well known amongst us posters here? I am willing to lay odds on that. I would suggest you cash out today and get the hell out fast. I don't like the sound of this at all. NO book should be carrying a 2.5 when the line is 3 painted..
Sick gambler, The line was 3 all week for those games until right before gametime. I believe they got a flood of money on Buffalo and Seattle and decided to move the line. In other words, that book actually made money on those games.
I took Miami -2.5 last night. When other people late in the game were cursing a possible push, I had a 1/2 pt winner.
I took Miami -2.5 last night. When other people late in the game were cursing a possible push, I had a 1/2 pt winner.
In the old days, bookies would move off the number 3 a lot more regularly when enough money was bet on one team in order to generate action on the "other" side...
Nowadays, the best bookmakers abroad will NEVER EVER EVER move off the number "3"...
Rather, they will move their line to to "3" minus 15, "3" minus 20, "3" minus 25, "3" minus 30 (get the point?) to generate action on the other team...
A perfect example took place on last night's Miami-Buffalo Monday Night Football game where Miami was a 3 point favorite at one time.
However, so much money was bet on Buffalo that CASCADE for example, moved its line to BUFFALO PLUS "3" minus $1.25, rather than dropping the line to Miami minus 2 1/2...
And if you watched the game, you should be able to figure out why the best bookmakers would rather hang themselves than move off of the dreaded "3"...
THE SHRINK
Nowadays, the best bookmakers abroad will NEVER EVER EVER move off the number "3"...
Rather, they will move their line to to "3" minus 15, "3" minus 20, "3" minus 25, "3" minus 30 (get the point?) to generate action on the other team...
A perfect example took place on last night's Miami-Buffalo Monday Night Football game where Miami was a 3 point favorite at one time.
However, so much money was bet on Buffalo that CASCADE for example, moved its line to BUFFALO PLUS "3" minus $1.25, rather than dropping the line to Miami minus 2 1/2...
And if you watched the game, you should be able to figure out why the best bookmakers would rather hang themselves than move off of the dreaded "3"...
THE SHRINK
SHRINK...............gonna disagree with your statements, you say
1. in the old days bookies moved off the #3 a lot more regularly to generate action on the other side.....
2. nowadays books abroad never, never move off the 3
(you are correct that they will test the waters with 3-20
before moving off 3)
the number 3 was a key number back in the old days, just like today......getting middled back then is the same as getting middled today.......saying they moved off of 3 to generate action is silly, shops got RICH booking one-sided action on the number 3, move off of 3? sure its gonna generate action, but booking 20dimes at -3 and 10dimes +3' isnt a position you want to be in.........if the number falls 3......
go back to mnf philly/tampa.............you yourself bet philly...-2' flat.........lots of 2'-20, all kinds of different #'s on that game...every book offshore started with a 3's...
1. in the old days bookies moved off the #3 a lot more regularly to generate action on the other side.....
2. nowadays books abroad never, never move off the 3
(you are correct that they will test the waters with 3-20
before moving off 3)
the number 3 was a key number back in the old days, just like today......getting middled back then is the same as getting middled today.......saying they moved off of 3 to generate action is silly, shops got RICH booking one-sided action on the number 3, move off of 3? sure its gonna generate action, but booking 20dimes at -3 and 10dimes +3' isnt a position you want to be in.........if the number falls 3......
go back to mnf philly/tampa.............you yourself bet philly...-2' flat.........lots of 2'-20, all kinds of different #'s on that game...every book offshore started with a 3's...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by dimeplayersonly:
SHRINK...............gonna disagree with your statements, you say
the number 3 was a key number back in the old days, just like today......getting middled back then is the same as getting middled today..
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Sorry dimes, but you're wrong on this one. 3's were not as common back then in the NFL as they are today and that is ONLY for one reason sir.. The 2 point conversion helped bring more 3's to the game. Today, when it's 21-13 late, back then, there was NO chance for a 3.. Today, you're looking good for a 3 if the score is this. And there are many many more examples too, like 14-13 team is losing.. if they score at TD now, they will go for 2 and make it easier than back then for another 3..
The 2 pt conversion has really helped create more 3's..
SHRINK...............gonna disagree with your statements, you say
the number 3 was a key number back in the old days, just like today......getting middled back then is the same as getting middled today..
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Sorry dimes, but you're wrong on this one. 3's were not as common back then in the NFL as they are today and that is ONLY for one reason sir.. The 2 point conversion helped bring more 3's to the game. Today, when it's 21-13 late, back then, there was NO chance for a 3.. Today, you're looking good for a 3 if the score is this. And there are many many more examples too, like 14-13 team is losing.. if they score at TD now, they will go for 2 and make it easier than back then for another 3..
The 2 pt conversion has really helped create more 3's..
SICK GAMBLER...guys...........i didnt say anything about 3 being common back then, i said it was a KEY number......
i am going to assume your saying, games ending on 3 are more common today in the nfl than before the 2pt conversion......i will not argue that point with you......but it has nothing to do with what i said......
i am going to assume your saying, games ending on 3 are more common today in the nfl than before the 2pt conversion......i will not argue that point with you......but it has nothing to do with what i said......
