how much is 1/2 run worth on a total?

[blueedwards]

if i can bet into baseball totals that are off by 1/2 or more, should i take it every time? i have been trying it with a local bookie and have been having mixed results.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Blue,off a half with the same juice?

 

[blueedwards]

yes

 

[JudgeWapner]

I'm not a numbers guy,but would guess a half a run would be worth around 25 cents.So I would take the free half run every time.

 

[blueedwards]

thats what i'm thinking too. i just need to play it every single time the rest of the year to see the benefits.

right now i am down a few hundred.

 

[RobFunk]

there have been a few threads on this in the last month heres one of them
http://forum.therx.com/eve/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=746097022&m=74610122&r=74610122#74610122

 

[blueedwards]

came into play tonight...had the yanks under 10.5 when it was 10 everywhere.

anyone else have thoughts here?

 

[lander]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by blue edwards:
came into play tonight...had the yanks under 10.5 when it was 10 everywhere.

anyone else have thoughts here? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'd middle it if the 9 was in play.

 

[blueedwards]

lander, thats your answer to everything

 

[lander]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by blue edwards:
lander, thats your answer to everything

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Blue,
That's not true.

I told Dante's and Ken's wives that I didn't want to be in the middle anymore.

 

[DarrylParsons]

The best way to know how much a half run is worth is to look at Pinnacle's offerings. They let you buy and sell half runs and their premium is typically one point. So if they are charging 16c on or off an 8 (which is typical) and offering 14c the other way, you can assume it's worth 15c.

The odd numbers are worth more than even numbers because games cannot end in a tie. Also the higher the number the less it's worth because of the relative difficulty of hitting it exactly.

 

[blueedwards]

so darryl, would you bang the weak line everytime or pick and choose?

 

[DarrylParsons]

Blue,

When my local gives a high volley I normally take it for the most I can without drawing too much suspicion. I want to keep those soft numbers coming for a long time. Then if I find myself with too much risk, I'll unload some on the other side on the best line I can find online.

I never do "pure" middles. If a middle exists I will always favor one side over the other and have net bet riding on the game.

With your local I would calculate first whether you have a middle or not, and if so, I would hit it no matter what. If not, then I'd just consider it as one of my options which I may or may not take, depending on which side I like.