How much does line movement affect your wagers?

[bounceback]

I'd be lying if I'd say that line movement didn't sway my bets....

Not saying it's right or wrong....but it does come in to factor.

you?

 

[tatehill2000]

1%
As my systems have changed over the last 6 years, I've found my systems overcome both movements of lines so I just look for best line.. and I buy the hook Everytime..

 

[REDEYE]

everything affects my wagers...

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

1%
As my systems have changed over the last 6 years, I've found my systems overcome both movements of lines so I just look for best line.. and I buy the hook Everytime..

Explain why buying the hook helps you every time....I think you are throwing away a lot of cash....JMHO

 

[RenoChazz]

Explain why buying the hook helps you every time....I think you are throwing away a lot of cash....JMHO

+1 You're just paying more vig. It's the same with playing the runline in baseball, or puckline and regulation only in hockey. I never get why guys pay more vig for something that's correlated.

 

[tatehill2000]

Viejo,, I search for best line first.. if I'm on a -3 -4 -5 even number. I stay... but as I'm searching for best line if it's -3.5 -2.5 -4.5 I'm buying the hook..

So why u ask... I just find i get hooked once a week or so... frequently enough for me to pay the vig and catch a push

 

[vitterd]

Never understood those who buy a half point to avoid push....better off buying full point if you're worried about it but it's idiotic either way.

 

[RenoChazz]

And movement affects everyone. If you didn't beat the move you are either winning less or losing more .

 

[bounceback]

When I throw a big parlay in - say 6+ teams, I always buy the hook off a whole number just so that there are no pushes available on the card. So it's either win or lose...rather than 1 pushes and the parlay value cuts in half.

Anyone else do this?

 

[Bourn]

I buy off the hook 100% of the time. Ive been screwed enough by 1/2 point to last a lifetime. No thanks. I would say it saves me 50% of the time. Especially on b-ball totals.

 

[Bourn]

+1 You're just paying more vig. It's the same with playing the runline in baseball, or puckline and regulation only in hockey. I never get why guys pay more vig for something that's correlated.

Ive won a ton of PL's and RL's.

 

[bounceback]

I buy off the hook 100% of the time. Ive been screwed enough by 1/2 point to last a lifetime. No thanks. I would say it saves me 50% of the time. Especially on b-ball totals.

lol 50% of the time your bet comes within a half of point? :smoking:

 

[Bourn]

I agree line movement affects everyone who pays attention to it. Does a .50 move take me off a game? Not if I like it a lot.

 

[Bourn]

lol 50% of the time your bet comes within a half of point? :smoking:

Sure the hell feels like it!! Lol

 

[Bourn]

I'm convinced books fuck with people who pay attention to line movement. So many times it goes one way and the other side wins. It seems late line movement has been more profitable to follow. Idk just an observation.

 

[bounceback]

Sure the hell feels like it!! Lol

lol i feel u tho

 

[RenoChazz]

I'm convinced books fuck with people who pay attention to line movement. So many times it goes one way and the other side wins. It seems late line movement has been more profitable to follow. Idk just an observation.

The thing is it's only profitable long term if you beat it. If you chase steam you're probably betting into line that no longer has a long term edge.

 

[bounceback]

+1 You're just paying more vig. It's the same with playing the runline in baseball, or puckline and regulation only in hockey. I never get why guys pay more vig for something that's correlated.

Buying off a number and baseball runlines...How do you figure they are similar?

 

[Bourn]

The thing is it's only profitable long term if you beat it. If you chase steam you're probably betting into line that no longer has a long term edge.

I get what you mean about beating the line, but disagree on how you feel it's the be all end all. Obviously getting a line at +135 is much better than when it moves to +105 but if you're on the play that wins anyway, that's all that matters to me. Winning the play. Sure I could have had a bigger profit and that adds up, but winning plays you choose at a 55-60% clip is just as good.

Say Anaheim opens up at +120 and 2 hours later Anaheim is -120 when you see it. Are you saying you're not gonna take Ana -120 if you like it because you didn't beat the line?

 

[RenoChazz]

Buying off a number and baseball runlines...How do you figure they are similar?

If you play the moneyline you get reduced juice 10 cents. Runline's are usually 20 cents or higher on vig depending on how big the number, sometimes it's 30 cents. Same when buying numbers they'll juice it to adjust the odds, plus add more vigorish on top of it.