I noticed Bookmaker leaves a game up right till the last second
Ive actually been able to find out which team wins the toss and receives the ball and still be able to get a bet down on the 1st half line .
I just came up with this thought process the other day so I have not done much research .
But the few times that I have tried this I notice there is no line change once the coin is flipped and you find out which team receives the ball first .
So this means that who receives the ball first is not calculated in the line.
So my thinking is there is enough value to blindly bet on the team who receives the 1st half kickoff if you can make the bet before the book closes action on the 1st half bet.
Bookmaker is very generous with this .
They will leave the line up right till the moment that the kicker is jogging up to kick tbt ball off.
There is no question that there is value on the team receiving the ball first on a 1st half bet.
Its an extra possession.
This won't work for a game bet because both teams receive an opening half kickoff the same amount.
And it don't work for 2nd half bets because the team receiving the 2nd half kickoff is already calculated into the line.
But for 1st half bets this could be a huge blind bet winner.
You have to be actually watching the game.
But put it on the game at the very beginning .
Once you find out who is receiving the ball make a quick first half bet on that team.
No doubt in my mind you can make significant money doing this blindly .
Ive actually been able to find out which team wins the toss and receives the ball and still be able to get a bet down on the 1st half line .
I just came up with this thought process the other day so I have not done much research .
But the few times that I have tried this I notice there is no line change once the coin is flipped and you find out which team receives the ball first .
So this means that who receives the ball first is not calculated in the line.
So my thinking is there is enough value to blindly bet on the team who receives the 1st half kickoff if you can make the bet before the book closes action on the 1st half bet.
Bookmaker is very generous with this .
They will leave the line up right till the moment that the kicker is jogging up to kick tbt ball off.
There is no question that there is value on the team receiving the ball first on a 1st half bet.
Its an extra possession.
This won't work for a game bet because both teams receive an opening half kickoff the same amount.
And it don't work for 2nd half bets because the team receiving the 2nd half kickoff is already calculated into the line.
But for 1st half bets this could be a huge blind bet winner.
You have to be actually watching the game.
But put it on the game at the very beginning .
Once you find out who is receiving the ball make a quick first half bet on that team.
No doubt in my mind you can make significant money doing this blindly .
It don't have to be worth a couple of points. Even if it's just a half point it would be huge .
half a point in a first half line worth almost as much as a full point on a game line.
I would say you could blindly win money doing this in the NFL.
I was responding to HC about the 2pts. That's too much.
Again someone would need to backtest the data.
You get about 12 possessions per game on average, so 6 per half. How many more possessions per half does the team that wins the toss get? My guess is the number is something like .3 to .4 possessions more on average.
If you score about 2pts per possession (league avg in NFL, but not all possessions are created = obviously) then it would be worth .8pts per half.
But I'm not really sure.
I have never checked .
Never even thought about that.
I would have to pick and choose which one I would want to bet.
Probably would not have enough time to make both bets.
We talking about a window of less then 60 seconds .
No question it would be a monsterous advantage on that bet.
Just look at the odds on that bet for a baseball game when it's already predetermined which team bats first .
It's really only an extra possession if there is an odd number of possessions in the half. Cleary it is an advantage though. For simplicity sake, if you assume it will on average give you .5 more possessions in the first half then I would think just multiplying .5 by the average points scored on an nfl/college possession would give you a ball park figure of the average worth.
Yeah but it's not just that. It's the opportunity to score first and get a great middle opp.
If the dog is getting the ball in a low total game...if they score and go up 3-0 or 7-0 you are in a great spot to either let it ride or middle the first half live line, depending on what kind of window you get, how long the drive took, and other factors. Even if they don't score there is now less time for the favorite to cover, maybe they pin the opponent deep, etc.
IDK, it seems to me like it is worth more than the extra possession point expectation, if leveraged correctly.
I might limit it to dogs in a certain range who are getting the ball first, and always take that dog on the 1h moneyline.
If they score, arb out on the fave (who will now be + money live on the 1h moneyline, assuming it was not a huge dog, which is why you limit it to a certain range).
Guaranteed arb if your team scores on the opening possession, and increased chance to win even if they don't due to time being off the clock. Either way huge advantage.
Essentially what you're doing is betting on which team will score first in a roundabout kind of way by using live wagering, with the knowledge of who gets the ball first.
I might have to deposit there just for this and give it a shot. I'm highly confident you could develop an algorithm that would make this pretty much automatically profitable with zero thought required.
If they score, arb out on the fave (who will now be + money live on the 1h moneyline, assuming it was not a huge dog, which is why you limit it to a certain range).
Guaranteed arb if your team scores on the opening possession, and increased chance to win even if they don't due to time being off the clock. Either way huge advantage.
Essentially what you're doing is betting on which team will score first in a roundabout kind of way by using live wagering, with the knowledge of who gets the ball first.
I might have to deposit there just for this and give it a shot. I'm highly confident you could develop an algorithm that would make this pretty much automatically profitable with zero thought required.
