How many points are needed for an edge in a NBA middle on a Spread?

[HacheMan]

But Noreaga, do you occasionaly jump on a middle when you HAPPEN to run across it, or do you sit at a computer or wherever all day WAITING for lines to move.............?? This is the key question........

 

[Noreaga+]

I bet a total the night before that i expect to move significantly.. then if it does as I expect I middle it.. but no, i dont sit and wait all day im not a grinder.. im a gambler

 

[HacheMan]

What I wanted to hear...........

 

[THE SHRINK]

I recommend having at least 1 1/2 points on Sides and 2 1/2 points on Totals before I consider middling...

And no more than ten cents juice on each bet...

THE SHRINK

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

Pick winners not middles. Always.

 

[SubZaero]

Pick winners not middles. Always.

My thoughts exactly. You can always have a shot of a middle or hedge at halftime if it's not going your way.

 

[Doug]

I'll do it with a half-point if the lines are right. That's actually a side, not a middle. Earlier I bet;

Det un 169 +109, and over 168.5 -110. That's 99:1 on it landing on 169. It's probably closer to 20:1 against hitting, IMO.

 

[Fishhead]

David Matthew's rule of thumb of 1.5 points is pretty good. That is for NBA -110's and you would want at least that. Certainly, some numbers are better than others and you might be able to figure certain game subsets better than others. But as a rule of thumb, that works well. You can then adjust from there based on the vig. 1.5 points for 20 cents total is roughly 6.7 cents per half point. So you might just want to simplify further and figure you'll pay 6 cents per half point. (i.e. -6.5+104 and +7-110 would qualify).

This cannot be stated in any more simple terms than D2bets just did with the above quote.

He is right on the money and in the longterm you will not lose money following this math.

 

[SportSavant]

HACHE.....

Isnt it ironic that D2 didnt even need a sample of 5 games!!!! (let alone 20 games)

The very game we were discussing winds up landing right on 2 & the middle is Hit.....

Denver pk.... Minny + 2.5

:105317756

 

[Fishhead]

Wonder if BIGBET made a nice score here?

I am guessing he did!

COOL!

 

[krackman]

So 1.5 point full cost middle are profitable. 2.0 point middles are very profitable. 3.0 point middles would make anyone a fast millionaire in any NBA season if the limits are good enough.

Great post!

Hache obviously you have been to a lot more funerals then weddings.

 

[ignorant]

Does the value of half a point change when betting halfs/quarters?

 

[D2bets]

Does the value of half a point change when betting halfs/quarters?

Yes, it definitely becomes more valuable when the "event" is shorter.

 

[HacheMan]

So 1.5 point full cost middle are profitable. 2.0 point middles are very profitable. 3.0 point middles would make anyone a fast millionaire in any NBA season if the limits are good enough.

Great post!

Hache obviously you have been to a lot more funerals then weddings.

Everyone on here knows I'm usually easy~going..........
Krack, you have no idea who you're talking to, so how can you judge me. I know exactly what I can do, and that's pick winners. There are some posters here that know what I am capable of wagering~wise. Anytime you feel froggy and want to roll it out pick for pick let me know.......