How many one run outcome games per day are there?

[Someonebutnotme]

Meaning either home or away team winning by a margin of one daily. Just curious about that.

 

[Someonebutnotme]

4/5/4 (3)
4/6/4 (3)
4/7/4 (6)
4/8/4 (3)
4/9/4 (4)
4/10/4 (3)
4/11/4 (4)
4/12/4 (1)
All one run games.

 

[Someonebutnotme]

27 so far in just the first 8 days of Baseball. That's pretty amazing I think. But that's baseball for you.

 

[barman]

One run games occur between 25 and 30% of all games, from season to season.

 

[Someonebutnotme]

Thanks for the info. barman.

 

[jwunderdog]

If you ar analizing run lines. Favorites I believe historically win 60% of the 1 run games. Or another way to look at it is 18% of the time the runline comes into play. Please realize these # maybe off because they are coming off the top of my head, but I believe when I did this analysis last year those were the #s.

 

[Someonebutnotme]

All one run games-meaning one team winning by a margin of one only.

 

[Someonebutnotme]

4/13/4 (1)
Nine straight days of baseball where there has been at least one game with a winning margin of one.

 

[jwunderdog]

Considering that more then one out of every 4 games will typically be decided by 1 run. The 18% I posted is 18% of all baseball games the favorite wins by exactly one run.

 

[Someonebutnotme]

If this was true how many will there be today?

 

[Someonebutnotme]

15 games today and 1 out of 4 means 3or4 will end up a 1 run game today?

 

[Someonebutnotme]

None thus far today. Maybe some will come later on today?

 

[Someonebutnotme]

That's one thus far for today. Royals @ White Sox.

 

[MrTanaka]

"How many per day" doesn't mean much. There could be 1 or 0 today and 8 tomorrow.
Eventually it will work out to around the average.

 

[Someonebutnotme]

The fact is there has been at least one one run game the last 10 days.

 

[MrTanaka]

But what does that mean?

 

[ATX]

as with anything else you must pick your spots

it means that what happened today, two days ago, or twenty years ago does not predict what will happen tomorrow

often when a dog moneyline is off it is magnified in the alternate runline

sometimes the only value is in the dog winning by two, the SU is not far enough off

recognizing team tendencies, the teams that often display behavior outside bookmakers' prediction curves and beyond the casual bettor's grasp is another place to glance

it's not work unless you think it is

 

[Someonebutnotme]

4/14/4 (2)-1 run margins. Let's see what happens today?

 

[Someonebutnotme]

Once again a 1 run margin. Royals @ White Sox
That's one thus far for today.

 

[jwunderdog]

not sure why you are interested in this? Based on the 30% # , ther is less then a 2% chance that out of 13 games none will be with in 1 run.