How long until the next great depression?

[kayaman+]

Assuming dumbya does win how long will it be before we have the next great depression considering the following factors?

1948 was the height of the baby boom.

1974 was the smallest birth rate year in U.S. history.

A voting war will result between young and old over Social Security benefits once the boomers start to retire.

dumbya has incurred and all time record deficit, shows no strong indications he'll cut spending and will cut taxes to the rich every chance he gets.

I say 10-15 years.
What do you guys think?

 

[cussin'it]

5-7 years

 

[JudgeWapner]

Put it this way,I keep a portion of my assets in cash.

 

[eek.]

Too old to worry anymore. (40-50)

But Judge is right.

1. Have nice chunk of wealth in a big boring established bank.
(In the UK the Royal Bank)
2. Have chunk of wealth in land and buildings.
(You control the liquidation)
3. Remember that Pension schemes etc can suddenly have 25% exit fees imposed on them by the providers.

Bottom line.

Have a good chunk of your wealth locked into the same kind of places as the BIG people.
That means that the Government can't *** you over without doing it to their mates too.

 

[DarrylParsons]

I think 10-15 years is about right. The simple demographic fact that the major contributors to the economy will quickly become the main siphoners is enough to do the trick in such a highly leveraged economy.

The best investment to prepare for this is precious metals IMO. If you have them in your posession they are yours period, unlike real estate where you need the whole goverment apparatus to claim or change ownership.

Also, buldings last one or two lifetimes and need constant maintenance whereas gold and silver will outlast humanity with no maintenance -- how's that for long term!? And land...is that really ours anyway? Think about it philosophically...our dogs think the land belongs to them...can we prove them wrong!?

And banks!? Eek! (the emotional outburst, not the poster) They lend out most of their money and so deposits have no physical backing. When the house of cards falls, they will be at the bottom of the pile and your deposits will be all but a sweet memory.

Cash will get taken care of by rapid inflation -- definitely don't want too much of that. Remember, if you wait until inflation actually happens it will be too late because the prices of commodities will have already shot up.

 

[eek.]

I reckon that you, like the rest of the libertarian fantasists, want anarchy.


The bottom line that makes me sigh and shake my head at you guys.

Not a single Libertarian in the history of the universe has created a thumb sized country to support your fantasies.

Not one.
Not even almost.
Not one flipping nutsack thats big enough to make it happen

You slag off Castro.
But he gave it a shot.
He tried. He's there. He exists. He has survived.

But not a single Libertarian supremacist, in the history of the world, has created a Libertarian vision.

A bunch of intellectual middle class tossers.

Meanwhile.
Civilisation forges ahead.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Eek,

I didn't mean to hit a nerve there, bro. My comments apply to what I think will happen and not to what I WANT to happen.

It's true we've had government apparatus for a very long time, so long in fact that one might well assume it will always be there. But I see a gradual weakening of it plus economic problems ahead plus nasty nuclear threats plus nasty Al Qaeda threats, all adding up to major doo. Even the staunchest liberals agree that those threats are there and very realistic.

Utopia a la Phaedrus is nice and I would welcome it, but I am too realistic to believe in it in any serious way. World War III on the other hand is reality unfortunately. The question is when and not if.

 

[eek.]

I stand corrected sir.

 

[WildBill]

According to Harry S. Dent in a well thought out book, the next depression will be driven by demographics and begin somewhere around 2010 and end around 2022. Until then he expects a surprising bull market and another bubble. Good book to read, even if you don't believe it all.

 

[bblight]

Your prediction might not be that far off of the mark:

The European economy will crash under it's own burden long before the US economy gets to that point. Add in the coming competition wqith China and India over finite resources such as oil and the resultant high energy costs, along with the lack of alternative energy sources (thanks Green Peace), and you have the makings for a nice, long lasting economic downturn.

The US economy will survive because taxes have been cut and the extra money saved has been poured back into the economy.

The government can go Keynesian after the economy tanks.

Those of us that have lived within our means should survive as we listen to the cries of the people that have spent everything they've earned.

I'll be retired by then - mortgage paid off and no bills worth worrying about.

 

[mr73551]

I do not believe America will ever be in another depression.