How important is Handicapping?

SportSavant · May 25, 2004

In a recent thread of 'Sharps vs Squares' it was commented by the general something to the effect that:

'handicapping was not all that important & that one could be succesful at sports handicapping without ever knowing the names of the players on the teams'.

I have often thought about this & am more of a 'value' hunter in terms of the odds than a pure 'handicapper' myself.

MY QUESTION:

Can one be succesful at sports wagering without knowing anything about sports but simply scalping, middling, bonus whoring, & betting into VALUE?

Fishhead · May 25, 2004

YES, WITHOUT QUESTION!!

TheGeneral+ · May 25, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by The General:
Handicapping, the term, is way overrated IMO. Its a numbers game to me. One can be successful at sports betting and never know the name of any player on any team.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

SportSavant · May 25, 2004

thank u general....I didnt know where to find the quote...

SportSavant · May 25, 2004

fish...what if we eliminated...bonus whoring, scalping & middling & simply left it to...betting into 'value' without HANDICAPPING...

could one be succesful at this?

SSI · May 25, 2004

Funny you should ask this last question,, ill let you know in 2 weeks or less, with some exact numbers.. Been backtesting some things for a couple days now and may have stumbled upon something about Value, thats right under peoples noses.. Im trying it with real money tonight for first time.. Savant ill update you when i get some real numbers under my belt and you dont even have to know the names on the backs of anyone's jersey to do this..

OMNIVOROUS FROG · May 25, 2004

With my OMNIVOROUS approach, I do it all. But I am a capper, first and foremost. That is what I do. Bear in mind I am very old school. Every position I take has some capping behind it. I respect numbers, enough to have my own. One of my oldest friends/runners just calls me handicapper. Has for 20+ years. I like that moniker much better than gambler...Best Wishes...OF

Fishhead · May 25, 2004

Saying one would have to know NOTHING may be going a tad to far.

I believe one has to have a fair understanding of the game somewhat.

Having said that however, I could explain how to beat the NFL to somebody that has never laid eyes on a football and pretty much guarantee them a profitable year in 9 out of 10 seasons.

TheGeneral+ · May 25, 2004

I like to think I am a sportsman. Me and Doc Holiday.

CoachLT · May 25, 2004

Froggie, may I call you Froggie, if not, I will not. I LOVE the term "Sports Investor." Bookmakers are known as "Sports Accountants" LT

OMNIVOROUS FROG · May 25, 2004

Coach you can call me anything except a deadbeat or a welch...OF

Kink not too good either...OF

NICKYTHEFISH · May 25, 2004

You need an understanding of the game to find value.

Also around here the word "value" is thrown around rather frequently and I think alot of people think because you have a two dollar dog they have found value.Which may or not be the case.Just because you are getting a big number on one side doesn't constitute value.When in fact often times and some may argue here but the value may be on the chalk.

DarrylParsons · May 25, 2004

SS,

I have given my opinion on this somewhere before but I think the top 5% of sports bettors are mainly handicappers (the best of these being ALSO value hunters), the next 10% or so are mainly value hunters, and the bottom 85% are mainly handicappers again.

In other words, value hunting will get you only so far, maybe even to a level where you can make a living at it, but the best of the best cap the games and do it well.

drunkguy · May 25, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by NICKYTHEFISH:
You need an understanding of the game to find value.

Also around here the word "value" is thrown around rather frequently and I think alot of people think because you have a two dollar dog they have found value.Which may or not be the case.Just because you are getting a big number on one side doesn't constitute value.When in fact often times and some may argue here but the value may be on the chalk.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

exactly. by definition, handicapping is evaluating the line to find value. The question of whether you can find value without handicapping is ridiculous.

Fezzik · May 25, 2004

Not so fast my friend!

I played Lakers 4/5 (-125 to win the NBA).

I simultaneously played Lakers +157 to not win the NBA.

Yes, the average 8 year old, and a gifted 6 year old could have done the same thing. However, the "handicappers" were too busy trying to find a baseball ML off by 10 cents to bother playing 10 dimes each way.

Those who chastise pure value bettors typically don't have a clue what it really means to play a truly strong game.

Can you say "yes" to Smarty in the Belmont -185, and "no" at post +285? Who cares that I have never even seen the horse before! My portfolio will still be better than any of the capping geeks that will spend hours and hours on the race.

SportSavant · May 25, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> exactly. by definition, handicapping is evaluating the line to find value. The question of whether you can find value without handicapping is ridiculous. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

i hear what you are saying, put perhaps the value presents itself in other ways...for example if every book has a spread at -8.0 & you find a shop at -9.5....

youhave perhaps found value in the dog...no?

barman · May 25, 2004

Sports investing for me has always been more profitable the more I focus on actuarial angles and less on 'player' angles, or personalities.

I think a major obstacle for many sports bettors is being distracted by individual players, interviews, personal fan favorites etc.

I've often thought that if we could remove the actual player names and just replace them with Team A Player 1, Team B Player 2, we would remove the myopic glasses that certain uniforms and personalities distract.

Or how many times have you heard someone say, "I'm thru betting on Team A, because they've screwed me the past four times I used them."

As if Team A will never win again.

Or "I never bet the Redskins, because I'm a Cowboy fan, and I hate the Redskins".

Capping is VERY important. But it's better done by depersonalizing the teams and players.

bigbet1234 · May 25, 2004

fish, dont take this wrong, but are you an exclusive bonus whore? from your previous post, you appear you could be.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
YES, WITHOUT QUESTION!!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

bigbet1234 · May 25, 2004

fish, i am all ears!!

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
Saying one would have to know NOTHING may be going a tad to far.

I believe one has to have a fair understanding of the game somewhat.

Having said that however, I could explain how to beat the NFL to somebody that has never laid eyes on a football and pretty much guarantee them a profitable year in 9 out of 10 seasons.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

postaldoug · May 26, 2004

Reply to Fezzik :

Isn't betting Smarty early, then going against Smarty late, a form of handicapping ?

You knew enough to say the line would move,Right ?

Doug