Well..
at the start of the season everyone is on rest. No one is coming off a hot streak or a downer. No one has any preconceived ideas of whats going to happen. Books have no fukin clue usually because of all the new teams. They are cappin it by what the teams look like on paper because thats how the bettors are betting
There are some bets I'd take 100 times in a row even if I lost the first 10. You have the Blazers -5.5 to the Jazz. All new team with new PG. Returning one starter vs a playoff team with all the players having played together last yr. Zack Randolph is supposed to be the man and Utah starts a F at C. There are really no stats to look at as of yet. No trends. You just have team A that is supposed to place 6th in the west vs team B that is supposed to be in the draft. Game 1 everyone is hyped and athleticism is the big factor. Utah has nothign insdies and lil outside shooting. How can you not play that at anything under 6.5 points?
Then you have the warriors playing Dallas. Normally I wouldnt take a team on 2 games in 23 nights but the MAvs run so much its like playing two games so the talent over the warriors is a big factor even at -8. They are starting 4 new guys and the guys they didnt trade away are hurt or suspended.
at the start of the season everyone is on rest. No one is coming off a hot streak or a downer. No one has any preconceived ideas of whats going to happen. Books have no fukin clue usually because of all the new teams. They are cappin it by what the teams look like on paper because thats how the bettors are betting
There are some bets I'd take 100 times in a row even if I lost the first 10. You have the Blazers -5.5 to the Jazz. All new team with new PG. Returning one starter vs a playoff team with all the players having played together last yr. Zack Randolph is supposed to be the man and Utah starts a F at C. There are really no stats to look at as of yet. No trends. You just have team A that is supposed to place 6th in the west vs team B that is supposed to be in the draft. Game 1 everyone is hyped and athleticism is the big factor. Utah has nothign insdies and lil outside shooting. How can you not play that at anything under 6.5 points?
Then you have the warriors playing Dallas. Normally I wouldnt take a team on 2 games in 23 nights but the MAvs run so much its like playing two games so the talent over the warriors is a big factor even at -8. They are starting 4 new guys and the guys they didnt trade away are hurt or suspended.
General, FWIW:
One trend in opening games is the UNDER. In games in which both teams are opening their season, the Under is 96-63-1 since 1990; 9-3 last season. In non-division games when the home team is favored AND the Over/Under total is greater than 181, the record in that scenario is 46-19 Under (could apply to tonight's Phoenix at San Antonio game (if the total stays higher than 181) and will apply to the Dallas at Lakers game).
One trend in opening games is the UNDER. In games in which both teams are opening their season, the Under is 96-63-1 since 1990; 9-3 last season. In non-division games when the home team is favored AND the Over/Under total is greater than 181, the record in that scenario is 46-19 Under (could apply to tonight's Phoenix at San Antonio game (if the total stays higher than 181) and will apply to the Dallas at Lakers game).
general.
I was playing them in the beginning of the year before any real stats were out. The line started getting sharper and they lost to a terrible team I remember which was when I stopped following them specificly. Do you know what they were against the spread the first 15 games or so?
I was playing them in the beginning of the year before any real stats were out. The line started getting sharper and they lost to a terrible team I remember which was when I stopped following them specificly. Do you know what they were against the spread the first 15 games or so?
1) Read local media reports to find out injuries, whether new players are fitting in, etc.
2) Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Disregard old angles.
3) Play the same style you normally play. If you are a dog bettor, fave bettor, totals bettor, moneyline bettor, prop bettor, etc., play the same style you will play the entire season.
And with all due respect to what was posted earlier in this thread, be careful about those short road favorites. If it looks too good to be true...
2) Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Disregard old angles.
3) Play the same style you normally play. If you are a dog bettor, fave bettor, totals bettor, moneyline bettor, prop bettor, etc., play the same style you will play the entire season.
And with all due respect to what was posted earlier in this thread, be careful about those short road favorites. If it looks too good to be true...
hmmm
well if I had played the first 10 I would only be 6-4 by those records. I actually have it as playing the first 8 in which I would of lost. You dont have the spreads for those do ya there?
My point is that the first 5 games or so before any real road trips take their toll and teams dont have time to become the losing franchises they really are you can a fan can look and make a few wins.
Nick I know what your saying. I see some of those games to stay away from. I also try not tomake generalized rules which may keep me from a play with value. They make me 2nd guess but I that one is gonna slip through anyhow. Utah very well may win but Portland has some happy campers right now so hopefully they will make the most of a Utah matchup.
Dallas is not a team that I expect to get out to a slow start either.
well if I had played the first 10 I would only be 6-4 by those records. I actually have it as playing the first 8 in which I would of lost. You dont have the spreads for those do ya there?
My point is that the first 5 games or so before any real road trips take their toll and teams dont have time to become the losing franchises they really are you can a fan can look and make a few wins.
Nick I know what your saying. I see some of those games to stay away from. I also try not tomake generalized rules which may keep me from a play with value. They make me 2nd guess but I that one is gonna slip through anyhow. Utah very well may win but Portland has some happy campers right now so hopefully they will make the most of a Utah matchup.
Dallas is not a team that I expect to get out to a slow start either.
