Value in a line? Here's a generic example. Let's say you and your brother race mountain bikes and over the last 5 years you beat him 2/3rds of the time. If today he wakes up and says I will bet you even money ($100 to $100) I beat you than there is "value" in betting on Dante. You won't win every time as he wins 1/3 of the time but in the long run it is a money maker to bet on you at that price. It is fair to say there is positive expectation for you to make a bet. The reason is if you could race him over and over again each time taking even money and the results staying the same there is plenty of value in that line. If he says I need odds since you are better than me, I will put up $100 and you put up $200 than the value of betting on you has disappeared. Value can mean lots of things actually but finding the better team and betting on them does not constitute value. In fact usually it is just the opposite when the prices are figured in.
PS - stay tuned to SQUARE TALK for more discussion on this.
PS - stay tuned to SQUARE TALK for more discussion on this.
Never pick the worse line.
Betting is such that you can have accounts in several books and shop for the best line. If there are two lines that are slightly different the sharp player will never play the worse one. If you intend to do this professionally or at least seriously having DonBest is necesary.
Don't chase moves.
If you are watching the screen and aline moves don't bet it automatically. We call those movers or steam players. 90% of them are suckers that lose over the long run.
Never buy points.
If you buy points you bring your necessary winning percentage to break even on straight bets from 55% to 60%. You need to hit 61% of your picks before you make a cent if you buy points. The ½ usually doesn't even make a difference. Shop around until you find the line you like.
Never hook up.
If you like a line bet it. If you like two lines bet them. Separately. If you start playing parlays, teasers, etc. you will only lose. There is a reason those are offered, the suckers love them.
Play injuries.
A star player is out? Play against that team, especially in Basketball where the individuals make a greater difference. Obvious but you'd be amazed at how many chumps out there don't even do that.
Bet early and don't be greedy.
If you placed your bet early you are following your opinion on wether the handicappers were wrong. Remember, humans handicap the games and set the line, not all-knowing beings. When you bet you are saying "I think they were wrong in this direction". If a lot of people think the same as you then the line will move in your direction. If the move is big enough bet the other side. DON'T BE GREEDY and hit your bet again. If you play a middle that is wide enough (1½ points at least, hopefully more) you will have risked $10 (the juice on a $100 bet) to win $200. All you need is to hit one out of 20 middles to break even. This works particularly well in college football and basketball, those lines move a lot. Having accounts in CRIS and/or OLYMPIC is useful for this because they are among the first to post the lines. NFL is particularly bad for this as the lines don't move that much.
Follow your streak.
Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. If you are hitting bet more (within reason, obvioulsy), if you are losing bet less. the one thing you must remember is to never bet to get out of the hole. Let me repeat that: NEVER BET TO GET OUT OF A HOLE!. If you had loses for the week just take them. Don't send good money chasing bad.
Betting is such that you can have accounts in several books and shop for the best line. If there are two lines that are slightly different the sharp player will never play the worse one. If you intend to do this professionally or at least seriously having DonBest is necesary.
Don't chase moves.
If you are watching the screen and aline moves don't bet it automatically. We call those movers or steam players. 90% of them are suckers that lose over the long run.
Never buy points.
If you buy points you bring your necessary winning percentage to break even on straight bets from 55% to 60%. You need to hit 61% of your picks before you make a cent if you buy points. The ½ usually doesn't even make a difference. Shop around until you find the line you like.
Never hook up.
If you like a line bet it. If you like two lines bet them. Separately. If you start playing parlays, teasers, etc. you will only lose. There is a reason those are offered, the suckers love them.
Play injuries.
A star player is out? Play against that team, especially in Basketball where the individuals make a greater difference. Obvious but you'd be amazed at how many chumps out there don't even do that.
Bet early and don't be greedy.
If you placed your bet early you are following your opinion on wether the handicappers were wrong. Remember, humans handicap the games and set the line, not all-knowing beings. When you bet you are saying "I think they were wrong in this direction". If a lot of people think the same as you then the line will move in your direction. If the move is big enough bet the other side. DON'T BE GREEDY and hit your bet again. If you play a middle that is wide enough (1½ points at least, hopefully more) you will have risked $10 (the juice on a $100 bet) to win $200. All you need is to hit one out of 20 middles to break even. This works particularly well in college football and basketball, those lines move a lot. Having accounts in CRIS and/or OLYMPIC is useful for this because they are among the first to post the lines. NFL is particularly bad for this as the lines don't move that much.
Follow your streak.
Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. If you are hitting bet more (within reason, obvioulsy), if you are losing bet less. the one thing you must remember is to never bet to get out of the hole. Let me repeat that: NEVER BET TO GET OUT OF A HOLE!. If you had loses for the week just take them. Don't send good money chasing bad.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Follow your streak.
Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
People win in streaks because the human element is involved in sports gambling. Unlike craps where the odds are always the same humans feel different every day. We are affected by emotional and psychological events. When you get hot ride the streak. If you are cold cut down on your bets.
Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
People win in streaks because the human element is involved in sports gambling. Unlike craps where the odds are always the same humans feel different every day. We are affected by emotional and psychological events. When you get hot ride the streak. If you are cold cut down on your bets.
SuperWimp:
Good post. I particularly agree about betting a team with reported injuries in hoops. One man out (let's say Iverson for the 6ers) and the line will be out of orbit. If you can anticipate the report; that means if through research you can find about the injury report before it's official, you'll be betting pure value. I would disagree with one of your points though:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Follow your streak.
Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. If you are hitting bet more (within reason, obvioulsy), if you are losing bet less. the one thing you must remember is to never bet to get out of the hole. Let me repeat that: NEVER BET TO GET OUT OF A HOLE!. If you had loses for the week just take them. Don't send good money chasing bad. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have heard this before from people I respect a lot. And it might seem to work for them. But if you're giving a piece of advise, the best advise you can give is:
Bet FLAT. Having the discipline to do so, will decrease your exposure in the long run. It will eventually allow you to dettach from highly emotional moments, and make a good bet. It creates consistency.
Bet flat. Bet straight. Bet value.
Just my .02
Good post. I particularly agree about betting a team with reported injuries in hoops. One man out (let's say Iverson for the 6ers) and the line will be out of orbit. If you can anticipate the report; that means if through research you can find about the injury report before it's official, you'll be betting pure value. I would disagree with one of your points though:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Follow your streak.
Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. If you are hitting bet more (within reason, obvioulsy), if you are losing bet less. the one thing you must remember is to never bet to get out of the hole. Let me repeat that: NEVER BET TO GET OUT OF A HOLE!. If you had loses for the week just take them. Don't send good money chasing bad. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have heard this before from people I respect a lot. And it might seem to work for them. But if you're giving a piece of advise, the best advise you can give is:
Bet FLAT. Having the discipline to do so, will decrease your exposure in the long run. It will eventually allow you to dettach from highly emotional moments, and make a good bet. It creates consistency.
Bet flat. Bet straight. Bet value.
Just my .02
Hey Walk.
I agree that being flat can work for a lot of people because it instills gambling discipline that may otherwise not be there. If there were no junkies then there would be no business. Following your streak has worked very well for long-time players. Hard to do, especially deciding when you are on a streak and when you are just fluking a few.
Since my post I have thought of one other piece of advice for new gamblers:
Set a limit.
How much are you hoping to win? How much money would be "Enough". Everybody knows a smart person walks away while ahead, but you have to know how much you consider "ahead". A hundred? A thousand? Ten thousand? Reach this and then walk away. If you continue to bet without end odds are you WILL lose. Over 4 billion dollars in transactions a year say that the house wins in the long run. That's a mighty powerfull argument.
Likewise, set a LOSING limit. How much can you lose before it is enough? $10 000, $1000, $100? How much can you afford to lose? Same as with your win limit, once you reach then just walk away, hopefully learn a lesson. To do this you must keep track of your history of success betting. Not just a week, but lifetime. Most bookies live off of the short term memory of their players.
"How much did you loose?"
"Just a couple hundred of bucks, not much."
If you look at the lifetime figure of this player he could be down $20,000 over the past five years a "couple hundred" at a time.
Think about it... most players lose consitently, but still they have limits on how much they can bet per week. Is this because bookies are worried about losing too much money? Winning too much!?! What about the guys with a $500 cap? A bookie can't afford to loose $500? The reason the limits are there is to restrict how much a player can lose in a short period of time.
If I owe you $1000 then I have a problem. If I owe you $100,000 then YOU have a problem. Search me, I don't have it, won't have it and can't think of a way of gettin it.
Be smart, the house has the odds of winning. You can walk away with money if you do the right things, but you must learn to walk away.
I agree that being flat can work for a lot of people because it instills gambling discipline that may otherwise not be there. If there were no junkies then there would be no business. Following your streak has worked very well for long-time players. Hard to do, especially deciding when you are on a streak and when you are just fluking a few.
Since my post I have thought of one other piece of advice for new gamblers:
Set a limit.
How much are you hoping to win? How much money would be "Enough". Everybody knows a smart person walks away while ahead, but you have to know how much you consider "ahead". A hundred? A thousand? Ten thousand? Reach this and then walk away. If you continue to bet without end odds are you WILL lose. Over 4 billion dollars in transactions a year say that the house wins in the long run. That's a mighty powerfull argument.
Likewise, set a LOSING limit. How much can you lose before it is enough? $10 000, $1000, $100? How much can you afford to lose? Same as with your win limit, once you reach then just walk away, hopefully learn a lesson. To do this you must keep track of your history of success betting. Not just a week, but lifetime. Most bookies live off of the short term memory of their players.
"How much did you loose?"
"Just a couple hundred of bucks, not much."
If you look at the lifetime figure of this player he could be down $20,000 over the past five years a "couple hundred" at a time.
Think about it... most players lose consitently, but still they have limits on how much they can bet per week. Is this because bookies are worried about losing too much money? Winning too much!?! What about the guys with a $500 cap? A bookie can't afford to loose $500? The reason the limits are there is to restrict how much a player can lose in a short period of time.
If I owe you $1000 then I have a problem. If I owe you $100,000 then YOU have a problem. Search me, I don't have it, won't have it and can't think of a way of gettin it.
Be smart, the house has the odds of winning. You can walk away with money if you do the right things, but you must learn to walk away.
It must be the ginseng im drinking for energy or the pistaccho nuts Im eating right now...not sure what but Imapostinglikecrazy
