<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SportSavant:
thanks for the quick reply...how much lower would I need to go in Vig to make it attractive...is there anywhere I can find literature on it....ie 'middling for dummies'
What about this one...it hit last night
...would you have taken it?
+6 -110 / -5 +103 (NCAAB FULL GAME...BYU game)...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Hells yes take that. That's 3.5 cents per half point. Generally think 6 cents per half point (e.g -6.5-102/+7-104). Maybe stretch up to 7 cents tops if you like the line but no more.
thanks for the quick reply...how much lower would I need to go in Vig to make it attractive...is there anywhere I can find literature on it....ie 'middling for dummies'
What about this one...it hit last night
+6 -110 / -5 +103 (NCAAB FULL GAME...BYU game)...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Hells yes take that. That's 3.5 cents per half point. Generally think 6 cents per half point (e.g -6.5-102/+7-104). Maybe stretch up to 7 cents tops if you like the line but no more.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SportSavant:
geez....I wish I hadnt dropped out of math in 9th grade...
guys Jazz would you mind terrible going though the math with me on a -1.5 -110 / + 2.5 -105 situation?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
That's 7.5 cents per half (15 cents for 2 halfs). A bit too costly. Make that -1.5-110/+2.5-102 and I'd tap it.
geez....I wish I hadnt dropped out of math in 9th grade...
guys Jazz would you mind terrible going though the math with me on a -1.5 -110 / + 2.5 -105 situation?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
That's 7.5 cents per half (15 cents for 2 halfs). A bit too costly. Make that -1.5-110/+2.5-102 and I'd tap it.
SS, well I was trying to simplify it but yes, some numbers are better than others. In the NBA, my favs in order would be 7,5,2,6,3,9,8,4. 2 to 9 is the best range but even the higher numbers up to 13 or so aren't bad. In college, again they're all pretty good but my favorite range is 7 to 10. I gush when I see 8 or 9. But even the numbers in the teen tend to hit pretty well. If you're nervous or have a limited bankroll and want to tighten up your requirements a little then by all means. Naturally the cheaper the better. But the prime calcualtion is cost per side. By way of example (though limits may change this some) I'd rather have -6-103/+7-103 than -5.5-110/+7.5-110, thoguh both are quite profitable
D2, JAZZ, you both are class acts...I love it when this forum pulls together to help each other...Thanks alot...Id like to keep this thread alive as we continue to share our successes & failures in this area... Ihave a funny feeling that Pinny has an Opinion on the Memphis game as they are one of the only shops that have 2.5 on the game (Except for skybook with the free 1/2 point...)
SS, gotta tell ya it's been a lot tougher of late to find stuff and I've cut back my looking. But if you're seeing the ones that you've mentioned then great. I take it some of those are from SIA. Go ahead and squeeze that turnip though I'd lay chalk that you won't last more than 6 more months there if you play it "right". Good luck.
for a -110/-105 situation that risks $110, you'd need to bet this:
-110 bet $1,600 to win $1,455
-105 bet $1,565 to win $1,490
If you don't win, you'll lose $110 either way, but when you win, you're now cashing about $2,945 per middle - in the examples used, you'd still be losing $10,670 on 97 losses but would now win $8,835 - still a losing expectation here. At -102, your middle profit escalates to about $3,708 per middle, or a profit in 3 wins of $11,124, now a positive expectation. So 12 points looks to be the positive number for a pure middle situation if the 3% win rate is correct, and anything less is of course more desirable.
-110 bet $1,600 to win $1,455
-105 bet $1,565 to win $1,490
If you don't win, you'll lose $110 either way, but when you win, you're now cashing about $2,945 per middle - in the examples used, you'd still be losing $10,670 on 97 losses but would now win $8,835 - still a losing expectation here. At -102, your middle profit escalates to about $3,708 per middle, or a profit in 3 wins of $11,124, now a positive expectation. So 12 points looks to be the positive number for a pure middle situation if the 3% win rate is correct, and anything less is of course more desirable.
Well, Sports, I don't share any longer on forums when I've hit these things - Pancho was correct, the more specific you get in terms of books and actual middles, the harder it is to find them. If you are fortunate enough to be at SIA, then D2 is of course correct, but from what I've read Netteller is the only way to go with them if you expect speedy payouts - but I haven't been there for over a year so I really haven't kept up with them. Past that, happy hunting, but D2 is correct and I said it elsewhere in this topic - it's a lot tougher.
thanks for the tips guys...I always try my best not to mention book names when it comes to 'opiniated' lines as I dont want to ruin a good thing...Your right when saying we should keep the team names aswell as the bookie names out of our discussions here. I also have a local who is open from 6pm to 7pm...he gets his lines @ 5.45pm & doesnt change them till closing at 7pm...so sometimes I get some shots that way....
they are definately harder to find, I agree with you there...unless you are willing to go with tiny shops...
they are definately harder to find, I agree with you there...unless you are willing to go with tiny shops...
Middling is idiotic reason number two.
By consistently betting on the weak number too, you are resigning the fact that you cannot hit one teeny fraction of a percent above the underlying parity of the odds.
A bettor that invests in the one half of middles that hits at exactly the undelying expectation for the entire middle will tie the middler in aggregate returns.
All it takes is a teeny weeny % above that parity number or 50% in the NFL or NBA for the guy taking one side to earn more than the idiot.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I'd like to keep this thread alive as we continue to share our successes & failures in this area<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Middling by nature is failure, failure to discern which bet has a higher expectation when you are in essence given a free roll
By consistently betting on the weak number too, you are resigning the fact that you cannot hit one teeny fraction of a percent above the underlying parity of the odds.
A bettor that invests in the one half of middles that hits at exactly the undelying expectation for the entire middle will tie the middler in aggregate returns.
All it takes is a teeny weeny % above that parity number or 50% in the NFL or NBA for the guy taking one side to earn more than the idiot.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I'd like to keep this thread alive as we continue to share our successes & failures in this area<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Middling by nature is failure, failure to discern which bet has a higher expectation when you are in essence given a free roll
sodium let me ask you this...les just say that you did admit that you coudnt handicap games worth shit or spot a weak # to save your life...
would you then at least agree that middling is good hobby for someone who enjoys sports wagering with a decent chance for profit if done with the discipline descibed above?
would you then at least agree that middling is good hobby for someone who enjoys sports wagering with a decent chance for profit if done with the discipline descibed above?
Dance all you like, SPV, you are simply unwilling to concede anything even when shown that the return on hitting 6% of middles is over 500% greater than a 55% straight bettor. So I fail to see what the point is in continuing this discussion. Think whatever you like - you simply appear totally unwilling to concede a single point, so if you're that hard-headed about admitting anything in a discussion, it's fruitless and idiotic on my part to continue to post reasoned arguments when you simply ignore them.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> +6 -110 / -5 +103 (NCAAB FULL GAME...BYU game)... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
soduium, this is the example I presented above...which would have been the 'value' as you describe? Ill be damned If I could figure that out myself...however without much risk I won the middle...
also in a discussion it is important to give & take...i challenge you...let us know if there is at least anything above that makes sense to you...to mock in the fashion that you do does not give your side of the argument credibility nor are you bringing much respect to yourself...something as simple as choice of words 'idiotic' would completely change the tone of what is IMHO an extremely interesting thread...
soduium, this is the example I presented above...which would have been the 'value' as you describe? Ill be damned If I could figure that out myself...however without much risk I won the middle...
also in a discussion it is important to give & take...i challenge you...let us know if there is at least anything above that makes sense to you...to mock in the fashion that you do does not give your side of the argument credibility nor are you bringing much respect to yourself...something as simple as choice of words 'idiotic' would completely change the tone of what is IMHO an extremely interesting thread...
