Just use Pinnacle - OK, sure, whatever you tell me blindly I'll do - I am looking for a real answer - I have always heard the Zogby polls is the most accurate but the Gallup poll strikes me as a legitimate poll too.
Read my answer again. I said sample size is one reason why polls differ. The day the poll was taken can cause differences. Zogby has always been a good source. My Pinnacle comment was meant more towards who will win the election...I personally would be watching how that line moves because that's money talking versus polling people like eek.
P.S. The different polls would have to be asking people of the same demographics for the margin of error to mean anything between polls.
Read my answer again. I said sample size is one reason why polls differ. The day the poll was taken can cause differences. Zogby has always been a good source. My Pinnacle comment was meant more towards who will win the election...I personally would be watching how that line moves because that's money talking versus polling people like eek.
P.S. The different polls would have to be asking people of the same demographics for the margin of error to mean anything between polls.
I read somewhere that there were three polls you can safely ignore because of horrible sampling techniques: Newsweek, LA Times, and NY Times. You need to look into the internals of the polls to see who they are sampling: registered voters/likely voters, percentage of Dem/Rep voters and so on. The Newsweek poll just released surveyed 1/2 the people before Kerry spoke, used only registered voters and sampled too high a percentage of Dem voters. Though the errors may have cancelled each other out, it is still a bad way to do it.
The Gallop Poll seems to be the outlier as well, so you can probably assume Kerry has a slight lead with little bounce rather than Bush getting the bounce from the Dem convention. It doesn't really matter though; using Pinnacle as the guide seems to me to be the best way to do it.
The Gallop Poll seems to be the outlier as well, so you can probably assume Kerry has a slight lead with little bounce rather than Bush getting the bounce from the Dem convention. It doesn't really matter though; using Pinnacle as the guide seems to me to be the best way to do it.
There is going to be much bouncing around. Why don't people get this. The country is so polarized and most people have made up their minds and maong those that have it's nearly a dead heat. Maybe 10-15% of voters haven't made up their and quite frankly, this is bad for Bush. He is the incumbent and there is nothing incredibly appealing about Kerry. As a result, those that are undecided are obviouly not enamored of Bush for one reason or another. So Kerry has a wide opening to step into. Will he? We'll see. But we shouldn't expect to see much of any real bounces, other than simple inefficiency in polling and margin for error type movements. I don't believe that either candidiate will lead by DD points at any time in any reputable reasonable poll.
And in addition to all this, the national polls are really rather irrelevant. There are maybe 3 counties in Ohio and 2 counties in Florida where the polling really matters. Call all those people and then you'll have a story.
And in addition to all this, the national polls are really rather irrelevant. There are maybe 3 counties in Ohio and 2 counties in Florida where the polling really matters. Call all those people and then you'll have a story.
I mentioned it in a previous post about the Newsweek poll and it was reiterated today on Fox news that Newsweek actually had Mondale ahead of Reagan before the election in 1984. Their methodology of polling is really suspect (calling just adults, with no idea of whether or not they are even registered to vote). They took a lot of heat in 84' for their polling results (Reagan won by 19 points and carried 49 states) looks like they just don't learn by their past mistakes!
