How do you choose your games?

[fabfive]

Just wondering how you guys choose what you games you wager on? I mean every Saturday there is 20+ games, do you glance at the lines and see what catches your eye then from there do your research? That's what I have done in the past but would like some input on how you guys do it.

Thanks!

 

[mutceR]

I never look at the lines first, That can wreack havoc on what you plan to bet.

My methods vary a great deal from other posters.
I start handicapping college football when the Phill Steele publication comes out.
I look at the teams playing say for example Iowa/Iowa St on September 12

I compare QB, oline, running back and wide outs vs D-line, linebackers and corner backs
Then I do the same again, Where this has paid off 1 million times more than my expectations is in the totals area.

If the teams in question have all the offensive tools and there are mismatches on both teams at D-line, and corner backs I bang the over.

Iowa/Iowa St have played under the last 5 years.
This will not deter me from placing a nice size bet on the over.

back to your question.
After Iv handicapped week 2 and 3 of the Phill Steele annual
(I never cap week one nor do I play week one in college.)
I record all the media days and preview shows on ESPN,the MTN network,cbs sports and the rest of the media days I get thru the net.

This is crucial as some coaches are dumb enough to tell you what the actually will do during the season.
I take notes on everything that I deem important.

I also have various systems Iv gathered and saved over the years.

I look for what most people miss
A team that goes 2-10 ATS while being negative on the turnover margin is set to bounce back with a decent ATS season (MOST LIKELY)
that could mean 6-6 but if the team is 2-4 ATS at mid season Ill take a shot and play them, Ill choose my spots carefully, Were not talking about teams like North Texas here.

Same way a team that was 10-2 ATS will not (More than Likley) cover at that high rate again.

Perfect example last season for me was Skip Holtz ECU team, They have been a cover machine under Holtz, I knew it was time for a fall after week 4 I started going against this team and it went well for me.

there are so many aspects to handicapping, that it can get confusing, Hell you can even confuse yourself.

I dont look at lines until I am ready to bet, Since I mainly play totals I do not bet until the day of the game, WEATHER BEING MY MAIN REASONING.

anyway, Hope I didnt confuse you.
Ill be around this season to offer my insight.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

We start accumulating information the day after the season ends. This process lasts about 4 months, but the first three are the most important to us because we do research work for some of the mags that you may read.

We first take all of the numbers from each team in the previous season and feed them to the computer. This allows the computer to give us a good read in the following season when it comes to angles and trends, and which ones are still valid. We also evaluate the new HC's and assistants that are hired.

Player personnel is next. We look at every position on every team, trying for an honest evaluation. Our job, unlike many mags, is NOT to make readers hopeful if they have a so-so team. Our job is to evauate team personnel based on stature, speed, mobility, judgement, and history of injury.

Next comes the evaluation of freshman and juco transfers. Which ones will start? Which ones may play significant spot roles?

We then feed all of this into our computer and start churning out numbers. Once that is completed, we look at every single game, and put it all together. This generates a number for us, well before the lines come out at LVSC. It is our starting number, and we adjust the number as time goes on. Adjustments are made for player loss due to injury, arrest, suspension, or voluntary reasons. We look for signs that all is real well, or not well with teams in spring drills. Some coaches easily tip their hands.

After this, we add in what we think are the intangables. To be honest, this is more gut feeling than anything else, but if you do not have it, you will never be a winner in this game. We then get an updated number from our computer. We compare it to the number that the LVSC puts out, and we go from there.

 

[goblue12]

I just bet bad lines.

 

[fballplaya]

We start accumulating information the day after the season ends. This process lasts about 4 months, but the first three are the most important to us because we do research work for some of the mags that you may read.

We first take all of the numbers from each team in the previous season and feed them to the computer. This allows the computer to give us a good read in the following season when it comes to angles and trends, and which ones are still valid. We also evaluate the new HC's and assistants that are hired.

Player personnel is next. We look at every position on every team, trying for an honest evaluation. Our job, unlike many mags, is NOT to make readers hopeful if they have a so-so team. Our job is to evauate team personnel based on stature, speed, mobility, judgement, and history of injury.

Next comes the evaluation of freshman and juco transfers. Which ones will start? Which ones may play significant spot roles?

We then feed all of this into our computer and start churning out numbers. Once that is completed, we look at every single game, and put it all together. This generates a number for us, well before the lines come out at LVSC. It is our starting number, and we adjust the number as time goes on. Adjustments are made for player loss due to injury, arrest, suspension, or voluntary reasons. We look for signs that all is real well, or not well with teams in spring drills. Some coaches easily tip their hands.

After this, we add in what we think are the intangables. To be honest, this is more gut feeling than anything else, but if you do not have it, you will never be a winner in this game. We then get an updated number from our computer. We compare it to the number that the LVSC puts out, and we go from there.

Who is "we?"

What are you Rickey Henderson....lol

Rickey does what Rickey does.....lol

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I just bet bad lines.

A buddy of mine that does well handicapping simply finds a line that 90% of college football fans LOVE and simply goes the other way. He figures it's better to side with Vegas than any tool that think he knows everything about college football. Not just fading the public but one of those lines you think "what the fuk, why is that soooo low, no way they don't cover?"

 

[bellyputter]

We start accumulating information the day after the season ends. This process lasts about 4 months, but the first three are the most important to us because we do research work for some of the mags that you may read.

We first take all of the numbers from each team in the previous season and feed them to the computer. This allows the computer to give us a good read in the following season when it comes to angles and trends, and which ones are still valid. We also evaluate the new HC's and assistants that are hired.

Player personnel is next. We look at every position on every team, trying for an honest evaluation. Our job, unlike many mags, is NOT to make readers hopeful if they have a so-so team. Our job is to evauate team personnel based on stature, speed, mobility, judgement, and history of injury.

Next comes the evaluation of freshman and juco transfers. Which ones will start? Which ones may play significant spot roles?

We then feed all of this into our computer and start churning out numbers. Once that is completed, we look at every single game, and put it all together. This generates a number for us, well before the lines come out at LVSC. It is our starting number, and we adjust the number as time goes on. Adjustments are made for player loss due to injury, arrest, suspension, or voluntary reasons. We look for signs that all is real well, or not well with teams in spring drills. Some coaches easily tip their hands.

After this, we add in what we think are the intangables. To be honest, this is more gut feeling than anything else, but if you do not have it, you will never be a winner in this game. We then get an updated number from our computer. We compare it to the number that the LVSC puts out, and we go from there.

I take all these steps, plus this year I paid Dawoofdaddy, GoSooners, some of the West Coast posters, and a few others from the RX, to personally time all the 40 yd dashes of every D-1 football player. I also have every cell phone # of every ho that most of the top players tap on a frequent basis. After that, I begin to find whatever dirt I can on many of the big game officials. My(our) work is never done.

 

[sdf]

random number generator

 

[fivestarjake]

magic 8 ball does the trick