How do they set the lines with such accuracy?

[ShedClub]

I wonder how or with what formula/ equation the line setters use to determine the lines. It seems that 80% of the time the scores/outcomes of the games are very very close to the lines. How do they predict with such accuracy??

 

[boltgirl]

power ratings and rpi numbers which vary but the ncaa has one place it goes to get thier rpi ratings and those numbers differ in the line by a few pts. the oddmakers arent dumb they see the same numbers so if you saw acurrate power ratings theyd be right where the lines are.RG

 

[drunkguy]

keep track of the lines and the actual point differential in the game...

you'll find that the lines are further off than you think

 

[MrTanaka]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by drunkguy:
keep track of the lines and the actual point differential in the game...

you'll find that the lines are further off than you think<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I totally agree. You just tend to notice and remember the close ones more often.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

I agree with the others here. I don't know where you got 80% from, but that is way off. Most books try to put out the best # to limit risk. I prefer capping the game than the line in most cases.

Best Wishes
GP

 

[jwunderdog]

If it was anywhere near 80% teasers would be a gold mine instead of a death trap.

 

[superstar]

a line its good not because the outcome of the game its closer to the difference but because it split opinions making people betting on both sides

 

[jdodger]

An original opening line is a remarkably good predictor of actual outcome.

The line as actually moved by real $$ being bet is even better.

One of the best winning strategies is finding a book that is off the line as moved by action.