Marc Lawrence's PlayBook Midweek Alert Super Bowl XLIII
PITTSBURGH over Arizona by 10
“Free at last. Free at last. Thank God almighty, we are free at last.” The same
words uttered by the late, great Martin Luther King is also the theme-dream for
the Arizona Cardinals who earned a trip to the Super Bowl for the first time in
franchise history. In the process they have freed themselves from the stigma of
born losers. With just ONE winning season in the previous twenty-three years, the
Red Birds turned to former Super Bowl winner Kurt Warner early in the season
and he helped them shed the shackles that have bound this team for three decades.
Ironically, former Pittsburgh assistant head coach Ken Whisenhunt now leads his
team against his former employer and the coach, Mike Tomlin, he was spurned
for in this, the game for top-honors in the league. FYI: Whisenhunt beat Tomlin,
21-14, last year as a 6-point home dog in the only meeting between these two.
To set the record straight, the House of Cards are the first 9-7 team in NFL history
to reach the Super Bowl. The Cardinals won their last division title in 1975. They’ve
won two league championships – in 1925 and 1947. We’re talking a mighty long
time between winning hands here, folks. But that’s what happens when a team
catches fire. Warner’s main target, WR Larry Fitzgerald, is arguably the best
receiver in the game today. His companion, Anquan Boldin, makes them the best
wide receiver tandem in the league. Together with Warner, they form as serious
an offensive threat as any team in the loop.
Like the New York Giants last year, Big Red enters the Super Bowl off an upset
win, generally a good omen for teams competing in the biggest game of all as
they are 11-6-1 ATS in this role, including 5-0 ATS the last five and 5-1-1 ATS if
they are off back-to-back upset underdog victories. Toss in Whisenhunt’s 13-7
ATS mark in games off a win, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS when facing a greater
than .666 opponent, and suddenly there is a lot to like about these upstart Birds.
The bad news, however – and there is always bad news – is that you have to go
back to 1977 to find the last time the Cardinals managed to win 5 games in a row
as they are 0-6 SU and ATS in games off 4 straight wins. Meanwhile, Tomlin’s
Steelers are eerily similar to Pittsburgh teams of the past, getting the job done the
old fashioned way… with defense. The Steelers’ top ranked stop-unit is 92 YPG
superior to the Cardinals and is the main reason they are 14-4 ‘In The Stats’ this
season (Arizona is 12-7 ITS). And speaking of Tomlin, he’s 4-0 SU and ATS against
NFC competition that is off back-to-back wins.
Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger is a sterling 7-2 SU and ATS in his career during
the post-season, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Big
Ben is also 39-3 SU and 29-13 ATS in his NFL career as a favorite of 4 or more
points, including 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS if the opponent owns a win percentage of
.333 or more.
Going back to their Super Bowl XL win over Seattle in the 2005 season, Pittsburgh
has reeled off 7 consecutive covers in post-season play (6-1 SU), scoring 21 or
more points in each game. Not a good number if you’re a desert-lover considering
the Cardinals’ 18-54 ATS record as a dog in games in which they allow 21 or more
points this decade. Neither is the fact that AFC favorites of 6 or more points are
43-6 SU and 33-15-1 ATS versus greater than .400 NFC opposition this decade,
including 22-0 SU and 18-3-1 ATS when coming off a game against a division
rival. And just like that those impressive stats we spewed about Arizona have lost
their zest.
In closing, some SUPER BOWL FACTS to consider: the last thirteen Super Bowls
have seen the favorite go 9-4 SU and 4-7-2 ATS; the last 14 favorites to score 30
or less points are 2-12-1 ATS; teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU
and 21-2-1 ATS; teams who score 20 or less points are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS;
and finally, the last thirteen years the higher seeded team is 1-10-2 ATS!
A lot of numbers to ponder, for sure. The bottom line is this game pairs Super Bowl
winning quarterbacks, one whose team has a rock solid defense; the other whose
team is the 2nd best in the league scoring points. Like MLK, the Cardinals may
have a dream, but it’s the Steelers that will wear the ring.
PITTSBURGH over Arizona by 10
“Free at last. Free at last. Thank God almighty, we are free at last.” The same
words uttered by the late, great Martin Luther King is also the theme-dream for
the Arizona Cardinals who earned a trip to the Super Bowl for the first time in
franchise history. In the process they have freed themselves from the stigma of
born losers. With just ONE winning season in the previous twenty-three years, the
Red Birds turned to former Super Bowl winner Kurt Warner early in the season
and he helped them shed the shackles that have bound this team for three decades.
Ironically, former Pittsburgh assistant head coach Ken Whisenhunt now leads his
team against his former employer and the coach, Mike Tomlin, he was spurned
for in this, the game for top-honors in the league. FYI: Whisenhunt beat Tomlin,
21-14, last year as a 6-point home dog in the only meeting between these two.
To set the record straight, the House of Cards are the first 9-7 team in NFL history
to reach the Super Bowl. The Cardinals won their last division title in 1975. They’ve
won two league championships – in 1925 and 1947. We’re talking a mighty long
time between winning hands here, folks. But that’s what happens when a team
catches fire. Warner’s main target, WR Larry Fitzgerald, is arguably the best
receiver in the game today. His companion, Anquan Boldin, makes them the best
wide receiver tandem in the league. Together with Warner, they form as serious
an offensive threat as any team in the loop.
Like the New York Giants last year, Big Red enters the Super Bowl off an upset
win, generally a good omen for teams competing in the biggest game of all as
they are 11-6-1 ATS in this role, including 5-0 ATS the last five and 5-1-1 ATS if
they are off back-to-back upset underdog victories. Toss in Whisenhunt’s 13-7
ATS mark in games off a win, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS when facing a greater
than .666 opponent, and suddenly there is a lot to like about these upstart Birds.
The bad news, however – and there is always bad news – is that you have to go
back to 1977 to find the last time the Cardinals managed to win 5 games in a row
as they are 0-6 SU and ATS in games off 4 straight wins. Meanwhile, Tomlin’s
Steelers are eerily similar to Pittsburgh teams of the past, getting the job done the
old fashioned way… with defense. The Steelers’ top ranked stop-unit is 92 YPG
superior to the Cardinals and is the main reason they are 14-4 ‘In The Stats’ this
season (Arizona is 12-7 ITS). And speaking of Tomlin, he’s 4-0 SU and ATS against
NFC competition that is off back-to-back wins.
Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger is a sterling 7-2 SU and ATS in his career during
the post-season, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Big
Ben is also 39-3 SU and 29-13 ATS in his NFL career as a favorite of 4 or more
points, including 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS if the opponent owns a win percentage of
.333 or more.
Going back to their Super Bowl XL win over Seattle in the 2005 season, Pittsburgh
has reeled off 7 consecutive covers in post-season play (6-1 SU), scoring 21 or
more points in each game. Not a good number if you’re a desert-lover considering
the Cardinals’ 18-54 ATS record as a dog in games in which they allow 21 or more
points this decade. Neither is the fact that AFC favorites of 6 or more points are
43-6 SU and 33-15-1 ATS versus greater than .400 NFC opposition this decade,
including 22-0 SU and 18-3-1 ATS when coming off a game against a division
rival. And just like that those impressive stats we spewed about Arizona have lost
their zest.
In closing, some SUPER BOWL FACTS to consider: the last thirteen Super Bowls
have seen the favorite go 9-4 SU and 4-7-2 ATS; the last 14 favorites to score 30
or less points are 2-12-1 ATS; teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU
and 21-2-1 ATS; teams who score 20 or less points are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS;
and finally, the last thirteen years the higher seeded team is 1-10-2 ATS!
A lot of numbers to ponder, for sure. The bottom line is this game pairs Super Bowl
winning quarterbacks, one whose team has a rock solid defense; the other whose
team is the 2nd best in the league scoring points. Like MLK, the Cardinals may
have a dream, but it’s the Steelers that will wear the ring.
%^_
That is not true, the Cardinals were indeed a doggie in their last game against Philly and they were also a doggie at Carolina, however, Arizona closed as a 1 point home favorite against Atlanta and they were 7 point home favs against Seattle to close out the regular season...
...before playing Seattle the Cardinals played at New England and were installed as an 8 point doggie and lost by the final of 7-47 and they also lost their two previous games straight up as a doggies against both the Eagles and the Giants.
Thusly, Arizona is 2-0 straight up and ATS in their last TWO games as a doggie, however, they are 2-3 straight up and ATS in their last 5 as a doggie...
...overall for the season (including playoffs) the Cardinals are 3-6 straight up and 4-5 ATS as a doggie.
Take care and be well
Dirtydog
:smoker2:
%^_
Actually...NO, it doesn't sound better because straight up and ATS trends are NOT based on what the number opened up at, they are based on the closing numbers which relegates your argument null and void.
hno:Pittsburgh and Arizona DID NOT PLAY each other in 2006, below are the stats from their last three meetings and as you can see Arizona is NOT 2-0 straight up and ATS versus Pittsburgh.
hno:<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Group_Header><TD class=Group_Header colSpan=6>HEAD TO HEAD DETAIL
</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="8%">DATE</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">DAY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">AWAY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PTS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">HOME</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PTS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">T/G</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">HOMELINE</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">ATS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">RY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TO</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">RY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TO</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="8%">09/30/2007</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">Sun</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">PIT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">14</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">ARI</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">21</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">G</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">5½/42½</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">ARI/U</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">77</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">205</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">282</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">2</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">86</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">215</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">301</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">2</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="8%">11/09/2003</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">Sun</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">ARI</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">15</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">PIT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">28</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">G</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="10%">-7/40½</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="10%">PIT/O</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">96</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">283</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">379</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">1</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">87</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">159</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">246</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">1</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="8%">11/30/1997</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">Sun</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">PIT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">26</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">ARI</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">20</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">G</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">5½/40</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">PIT/O</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">177</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">165</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">342</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">0</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">48</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">243</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">291</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:smoker2:
%^_
Actually...NO, it doesn't sound better because straight up and ATS trends are NOT based on what the number opened up at, they are based on the closing numbers which relegates your argument null and void.
Pittsburgh and Arizona DID NOT PLAY each other in 2006, below are the stats from their last three meetings and as you can see Arizona is NOT 2-0 straight up and ATS versus Pittsburgh.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Group_Header><TD class=Group_Header colSpan=6>HEAD TO HEAD DETAIL
</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="8%">DATE</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">DAY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">AWAY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PTS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">HOME</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PTS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">T/G</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">HOMELINE</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">ATS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">RY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TO</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">RY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">PY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TY</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="5%">TO</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="8%">09/30/2007</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">Sun</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">PIT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">14</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">ARI</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">21</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">G</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">5½/42½</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">ARI/U</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">77</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">205</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">282</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">2</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">86</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">215</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">301</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">2</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="8%">11/09/2003</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">Sun</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">ARI</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">15</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">PIT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">28</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">G</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="10%">-7/40½</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="10%">PIT/O</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">96</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">283</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">379</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">1</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">87</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">159</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">246</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2 width="5%">1</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="8%">11/30/1997</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">Sun</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">PIT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">26</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">ARI</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">20</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">G</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">5½/40</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="10%">PIT/O</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">177</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">165</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">342</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">0</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">48</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">243</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">291</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1 width="5%">0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:smoker2:
hno:hno:hno: Maybe not in Reg. Season, But they DID Play them in 2006Game Results
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=5>Recent Meetings</TD><TD class=dataheadc colSpan=3>Pittsburgh</TD><TD class=dataheadc colSpan=3>Arizona</TD></TR><TR class=datahl2><TD class=datahl2b>Date</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Away/Home</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Line</TD><TD class=datahl2b>O/U</TD><TD class=datahl2 width="1%"></TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tot</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Rus</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Pas</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tot</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Rus</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Pas</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/30/07</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT 14 - ARI 21</TD><TD class=datacell>ARI 5.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 42.5</TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>282</TD><TD class=datacell>77</TD><TD class=datacell>205</TD><TD class=datacell>301</TD><TD class=datacell>86</TD><TD class=datacell>215</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/12/06</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT 13 - ARI 21</TD><TD class=datacell>ARI -4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 35.5</TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>246</TD><TD class=datacell>72</TD><TD class=datacell>174</TD><TD class=datacell>227</TD><TD class=datacell>57</TD><TD class=datacell>170</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/09/03</TD><TD class=datacell>ARI 15 - PIT 28</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT -7</TD><TD class=datacell>O 40.5</TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>246</TD><TD class=datacell>87</TD><TD class=datacell>159</TD><TD class=datacell>379</TD><TD class=datacell>96</TD><TD class=datacell>283</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/30/97</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT 26 - ARI 20 x</TD><TD class=datacell>Push 6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>O 40</TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>342</TD><TD class=datacell>177</TD><TD class=datacell>165</TD><TD class=datacell>291</TD><TD class=datacell>48</TD><TD class=datacell>243</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>10/30/94</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT 17 - ARI 20</TD><TD class=datacell>ARI -2</TD><TD class=datacell>O 34</TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>10/09/88</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT 14 - ARI 31</TD><TD class=datacell>ARI -6</TD><TD class=datacell>O 43.5</TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>10/20/85</TD><TD class=datacell>ARI 10 - PIT 23</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT -4</TD><TD class=datacell>U 45</TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:grandmais:grandmais:grandmais:grandmais:grandmais:grandmais
Oh my goodness...let me get this straight, now you are factoring in NFL Pre-season meetings between two teams from opposite conferences into your handicap of a Super Bowl game???
I must admit, you've got me speachless as any NOVICE handicapper just starting out would know better than to do that...
hno:
