Houston Texans Odds to win the Superbowl

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Published by Dan The Man on Inspin.com

The Houston Texans has been one the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. In the off-season the hired former Cowboys head coach, Wade Philips, and the results on the defensive side of the ball have made all the difference.

They are ranked # 1 in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 269.7. They have won four straight games, including last weekend's 37-9 blowout win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they lead the AFC South with a 7-3 overall record.

However, there are some dark clouds on the horizon. Quarterback, Matt Schaub, suffered a Lisfranc injury (A type of foot fracture) during a quarterback sneak coming out of the end zone late in the second quarter Sunday. Schaub has thrown for 2,479 yards with 15 Touch Downs and 6 interceptions for a QB passer rating of 96.8. He will be replaced for the remainder of the year by 2004 Heisman Trophy winner, Matt Leinart.

How will the Schaub injury affect the future odds on the Texans to win the 2012 Superbowl? For an answer we went to Wagerweb.com head oddsmaker, Dave Johnson, who works week in and week out grinding the stats and remaining schedules to generate future odds to win the Superbowl. Here is what he had to say:

"The Texans have hit a terrible bump in the road. To acclimate a new quarterback this close to the postseason will be very tough. Teams normally like to head into post-season on a roll and that may not be possible with the current situation. Matt Leinart has never thrown a pass in a Texan's uniform but he has been learning their system for two years. Regardless, it will be an adjustment. The defense under Wade Philips has improved and is currently ranked #1 in yards/game in the entire National Football League. That will be big for them as they try to remain competitive. The future odds on the Texans would have been +500 this week but as a result of the injury we will post them at +1200 in order to encourage some Houston money before Leinart plays his first game."

Let’s take a look at the line history on this prop bet to determine an answer:

February 7th
Texans +3000 or 30/1 - Opening Line

September 7th
Texans +2000 or 20/1 - Line drops after 3-1 preseason (solid preseason performance)

September 14th
Texans +1000 or 10/1 - Line drops after 34-7 WIN vs. Colts (impressive showing vs. unimpressive Colts)

September 21st
Texans +750 or 7.5/1 - Line drops after 23-13 WIN vs. Dolphins (two in a row has bettors talking)

September 28th
Texans +1000 or 10/1 - Line rises after 40-33 LOSS vs. Saints (tough but competitive loss)

October 5th
Texans +800 or 8/1 - Line drops after 17-10 WIN vs. Steelers (defense looks for real this season)

October 12th
Texans +1200 or 12/1 - Line rises after 25-20 LOSS vs. Raiders (Al Davis memorial game)

October 19th
Texans +2000 or 20/1 - Line rises after ugly 29-14 LOSS vs. Ravens (wake-up call?)

October 26th

Texans +1600 or 16/1 - Line drops after 41-7 WIN vs. Titans (division rival beat-down)

November 2nd
Texans +1500 or 15/1 - Line drops after 24-14 WIN vs. Jaguars (2nd divisional win in 2 weeks)

November 9th
Texans +1000 or 10/1 - Line drops after 30-12 WIN vs. Browns (3rd drop after 3rd win. betting value on this future market is drying up fast)

November 16th: What will be the odds this Wednesday?

You would assume with the huge 37-9 win this past week over the Buccaneers that the odds on this future market would drop for the fourth straight week. I would handicap the odds to be released at +500 or 5/1. However, the Texans lost their starting quarterback for the year.

Will the loss of Schaub be a huge factor in determining this week's odds? We will know soon enough.

 

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