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ESPN.com: MLB Playoffs 2004</TD><TD align=right>
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Thursday, October 21, 2004
Oswalt gives Astros bullpen edge
<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>By Rob Neyer
ESPN Insider
In Wednesday's column, I wrote:
"The worst thing for the Astros? It might be a repeat of Game 2, when Munro kept the Astros just close enough to blow out the bullpen. If the Astros are ahead after six innings, Garner has to do everything he can to win. But if they're behind, even if it's by just a run or two, Garner has to proceed with one goal in mind: live to fight – or, more precisely, to relieve – another day."
That's not exactly what happened, as Munro can't be credited with doing anything at all. He got KO'd in the third, but the soft part of the bullpen was so good that Garner did wind up having to use the hard part of the bullpen;
Dan Wheeler pitched two innings and
Brad Lidge went three.
So is the bullpen toothless tonight, as I predicted it would be if the Astros lost a close game? Hardly.<OFFER>
<!--------------------------START PLAYER CARD------------------><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=right border=0 hspace="5" vspace="5"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=8>
[size=-2][/size]</TD><TD width=200 bgColor=#ecece4><!---------------------HEADSHOT TABLE STARTS HERE---------------------><TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2>
[size=-1]Brad Lidge[/size]
[size=-2]Relief Pitcher
Houston Astros[/size]</TD><TD width=65 rowSpan=2>
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[size=-2]Profile
[/size]</TD><TD width=68></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------HEADSHOT TABLE ENDS HERE---------------------></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width=8>
[size=-2][/size]</TD><TD width=200 bgColor=#ecece4><TABLE cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width=190 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top align=middle bgColor=#002175><TD colSpan=6>
<CENTER>2004 SEASON STATISTICS</CENTER></TD></TR><TR align=right bgColor=#bcbcb4><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]GM[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]W[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]L[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]Sv[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]K[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]ERA[/size]</TD></TR><TR align=right bgColor=#bcbcb4><TD>
[size=-2]80[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]6[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]5[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]29[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]157[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]1.90[/size]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=middle bgColor=#002175><TD colSpan=6>
<CENTER>2004 POSTSEASON STATISTICS</CENTER></TD></TR><TR align=right bgColor=#bcbcb4><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]GM[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]IP[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]PIT[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]Sv[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]K[/size]</TD><TD width="17%">
[size=-2]ERA[/size]</TD></TR><TR align=right bgColor=#bcbcb4><TD>
[size=-2]7[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]12.1[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]166[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]3[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]20[/size]</TD><TD>
[size=-2]0.73[/size]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------INLINE MINI-PLAYER CARD ENDS HERE--------------------->While racking up three more perfect innings, "Lights Out" Lidge threw only 32 pitches (25 of them were strikes), which means he'll be available tonight for at least one inning and possibly more. What's more,
Roy Oswalt is available if Clemens runs into middle-innings (or earlier) trouble, which means the Cardinals might well have to face Houston's three best pitchers, and
only Houston's three best pitchers.
Meanwhile, 1)
Jason Isringhausen threw 41 pitches while a) blowing a save and b) planting at least a small seed of doubt in the mind of Tony La Russa; and 2)
Jeff Suppan, La Russa's starter of choice, isn't as good as Clemens. Oh, and 3) La Russa's middle reliever or relievers of choice, whomever he or they might be, is/are not as good as Roy Oswalt.
And that is essentially the limit of my Game 7 "analysis." Sure, we could sit around and discuss the relative merits of
Tony Womack and
Hector Luna,
Mike Lamb and
Morgan Ensberg, all the live-long day. But how productive would that be, exactly? There are significant things we can say before a season, and there are moderately significant things we can say before a series. But before a single game? Maybe, but those sparse notes above represent my best shot. Once the umpire shouts "Play!" and points toward Suppan, anything can happen … and much of it will.
Whatever happens Thursday night in St. Louis – and no matter what happens in the World Series (notwithstanding a sweep) – this will be remembered as one of the best postseasons of the last 35 years. How do I know?
Let's start with the League Championship Series. To even be considered as the greatest set of LCS ever, both series have to go the distance, or very nearly so. And this isn't nearly as common as you might think. From 1969 through 1984, when they played best-of-five, only twice (in 1972 and '73) did both LCS go the distance. And from 1985 through 2004, when they played (and, as you've probably noticed, still play) best-of-seven, only twice (last year and this year) did both leagues go the distance. So for those of you who don't enjoy doing math in your head, that's only four times in 36 years.
Oddly, these things have come in pairs; only in 1985 and '86 did one LCS go six games and the other seven (and in both years each series was particularly dramatic, beyond just the number of games).
(Oh, and in case you're wondering why you've read nothing in this humble column about Division Series or whatever they're called this year, there's a simple reason for this: nobody cares. It's been 10 seasons now, and still the only Division Series that I remember, I mean
really remember, happened nine years ago. When the rest of the world takes them seriously, I'll start thinking about it.)
Here's something else that surprised me. Since 1969, in only two seasons – again, 1972 and '73 – did both League Championship Series
and the resulting World Series go the distance. In '85 and '86 the LCS totaled 13 games and the World Series went seven, and in 2003 both LCS went the distance and the World Series went six. So those are the five post-1968 candidates, with 2004 looking to muscle its way into the discussion.
Ask me again in a couple of weeks, and then I'll do the hard work, the game-by-game analysis that will result in specific and authoritative
rankings (don't you just love those authoritative rankings!) of the various postseasons. I could use some advice, though … do you think 2004 should get a hundred bonus points for what happened in Boston and New York this week? Or a million?
Senior writer Rob Neyer writes four columns per week during the baseball season