I just posted a thread on this stat.
Belichick is 5-0 as a head coach when using a first time starter. Dates back to 93 and the most recent one was 2 weeks ago.
Todd Philcox- W vs Raiders
Eric Zeier- W vs Bengals
Tom Brady- W vs Colts
Matt Cassel- W vs Jets
Jimmy Garoppolo- W vs Cardinals
I don't know how the fuck he does it. And every trend breaks eventually. But I think this stat is compelling.
Belichick is 5-0 as a head coach when using a first time starter. Dates back to 93 and the most recent one was 2 weeks ago.
Todd Philcox- W vs Raiders
Eric Zeier- W vs Bengals
Tom Brady- W vs Colts
Matt Cassel- W vs Jets
Jimmy Garoppolo- W vs Cardinals
I don't know how the fuck he does it. And every trend breaks eventually. But I think this stat is compelling.
I think this stat only holds so much weight because of other competing factors that have to go along with it. For example, this stat doesn't account for another player with as high of an impact as Gronk being out in addition to a rookie start, which he is. One less huge threat on the field taken away for the rookie to throw to (imo their biggest threat). Also, doesn't account for the teams they played or the defenses they were up against (Texans have a very good defense this year). Maybe all 5 of those rookies beat very good teams but I doubt it (I haven't checked yet). It's interesting sure, and it obviously shows how good Belichick is, I don't think anyone is doubting that. Question is how relevant is it compared to most other things. Again, interesting sure, but I'm not sold on it being as relevant as other big factors in this game. Also have to factor in that this is third string, not a rookie playing a back-up role.
I'm expecting a good game, I don't see a ton of value in a side given all the unknowns such as rookie QB, second year Osweiler and how he's going to play on the road with a new team, etc. Line seems perfect at a pick-em give or take a point. I could see the game going either way.
I'm going with under 40.5 here. Best of luck to both sides, grab a beer and have enjoy the game.
Also to clarify the above comment. I'm aware Gronk was out and Garapollo still had a good game, I was just saying that the other 4 games probably didn't have a player of that magnitude out when factoring in that stat. I'm not downplaying it at all, I think it's amazing what Belichick can do, but again I see Gronks injury + Texans defense (esp. compared to the cardinals) making that stat less useful than if it was against a worse defense/rookie having a big threat with Gronk in. Rookies traditionally don't play well against good defenses, not saying it can't happen because it can, but that it's unlikely. I'm expecting a close and low scoring game, it's the NFL so you just never know what's going to happen. Bets on either side really make a lot of sense to me so I think I'm just going to stay away from the side. Really excited to see which team shows up.
