Hotty Toddy's Week 3

[HottyToddy]

Overall: 12-7 63% +28.7 units
Week 1: 9-5
Week 2: 3-2 (Oregon State can go to hell)

There was no big plays but I feel I was on the right side of every bet this week... I don't know what happened to Oregon St. It was 38-7 heading to the 4th and somehow gave up 23 unanswered... I wish they would have gotten beat but Hey thats gambling. I've won and lost worst but losses seem to hang around longer... I hope I can stay the course this next week.... Hope you all are having a profitable weekend....

Making calls on week 3 just for fun:
- Tenessee covers 1st half against OU and OU covers overall line
- Umass has a chance to beat vandy
- Iowa/ iowa st game goes under
- Rutgers beats Penn State

 

[HottyToddy]

Umass +18 4 units- Folks Vanderbilt hasn't scored but 3 points on offense this year and it came from Ole Miss turning it over at the 3... Vandy then lost 6 yards and kicked the field goal. They have been just as atrocious on defense. Ole Miss could of hung 70 on Vandy. We didnt punt once and played 4 QBs. Our 2nd and 3rd string Qb took over with 9 minutes left in the third. I know Umass isn't a powerhouse but for a team like Vandy to be laying 18 is ridiculous. Could be upgraded later in the week.

 

[HottyToddy]

Mississippi State -15.5- 7 units- Local knowledge play. This Defense is suppose to be very good. Well they got embarrassed Saturday... I've a buddy on the staff in Starkville and he said it was as heated as he has ever seen Mullen. Called a early morning meeting with all the staff. I've said the defense should be excellent but UAB hung 5- 50 yard pass plays on them. My coaching friend said it was about to get real in practice this week and he expects USA to get their best shot. If that's the case MState will win big... My prediction 42-17. May upgrade to 10 units later.

 

[HottyToddy]

-Lean on Arkansas. If they get to +4.5 I will pull the trigger on the Hogs pretty heavy. Will be playing them moneyline in all likelihood.

-Lean on Duke. Believe they are primed to blowout Kansas.

- Lean on Georgia

- lean on A&M most likely will pull trigger soon on the Aggies for 5 units..

 

[HottyToddy]

Central Michigam +220 1 unit- I think they win outright.. Waiting on right line to attack

 

[msmith2179]

HT, did you happen to get any updates from your buddy on how practices went in Starkville this week? If so did he comment on how the kids responded? Thank you for the information.

Good Luck

 

[HottyToddy]

HT, did you happen to get any updates from your buddy on how practices went in Starkville this week? If so did he comment on how the kids responded? Thank you for the information.

Good Luck

yes I've heard this week has been way more business like and serious. USA will be pumped to play but I think state rolls... It's dropped to 14 but could see late rush on MState. I'm going to pop it again if it keeps dropping... Good luck to you this week.

 

[msmith2179]

Right on, thank you and Good Luck!

 

[indiana]

H/T............BOL with all your action this week end..............indy

 

[HottyToddy]

Thanks Indy! You to buddy!

MSmith good luck to you!

 

[HottyToddy]

Central Michigan +7 -130 for 6 units

 

[HottyToddy]

Miss State -12 -115 for 9 units

I misread the line movements fellas and I apologize for that... I've good ins at OM and MState and sometimes I get to excited and jump the gun.. On Miss State this will be two seperate bets. If I miss both of them it will be 2 losses. I will always be honest and never cheat my numbers.. This is basically used as a tracker for me. Most of my local knowledge usually allows me to be on the correct side but there is no such thing as a lock... South Alabama has been very confident about this game. They have given MState a bunch of bulletin board material. Talk radio has been predicting the upset... Most of the time when the line drops this much it would scare me off the favorite.

MState returned 38 of there 2 deep. There from 7 on D is legit.. Big, fast, athletic. The secondary is much better than they showed. South Alabama is a run oriented offense. They ran it 50 times for just 186 against Kent State, passed for 15-25 for 161. This is the first SEC team to come to USA in 46 years. They will be extremely high and ready to play. That can go two ways early... They will either play well and be in the game for a while or State takes control early and they quit and get blown out. State has been balanced yards wise. 1,100 total offense in 2 games. 600 yards passing and 500 yards rushing. Yes against 2 nobodies but the offense will come in on a roll and have a ton of confidence. I also know they've had a great/tough week of practice. The "Psycho" defense was embarrassed last week. I look for them to be one hungry, pissed off bunch.

Bottomline: if MState is who I think they are (8-9 win team), they will come in on a mission Saturday. My numbers have them a 24 point favorite. That accompanied with the week they've had I believe they dominate. 38-10, 42-17 type of game. Again there are no locks and this game could easily go the other way. If they don't cover I will be right back in here eating crow next week and making week 4 picks. I never like to be over extended with 16 units on one game but when the numbers and my eyes are on the same page I will put it out there. Scared money doesn't make money. Good luck to all of you this weekend. Hope you guys win all your games unless you have South Alabama

 

[HottyToddy]

Also I want to clarify something. The contacts I have with certain teams have no clue I'm betting. They are just pretty good friends I've met over the years. I talk to them once or twice a week and we chat it up about everything. I was going into coaching myself at one time but got an opportunity in sales that I couldn't turn down. I'm now a business owner and a salesman. Most want me to get back in coaching. I know this is useless information but man I love coaching to no end. Absolutely love it!

ps- I feel MState will get hit with a late rush. Could see it back to -14.5 by game time... That's just a gut feeling.

 

[HottyToddy]

UL Lafeyette- +28 for 6 units

i believe this is an over reaction to last week. UL Lafeyette was a14 point home favorite against la tech last weekend and got smoked. Hudspeth is a localMississippi boy and can flat out coach. Rumors were if Mullen didnt win his final 2 games last year he was out. I know many alumni that wants HUD to be the guy at State. Good coaches get there teams ready to play especially after an embarrassing loss. Yes they play in the sunbelt but they can cause trouble on offense. They are wide open. ULL offense vs OM defense will be a fun watch. ULL returns 18 starters off of a 9 win team. They have good athletes and a bunch of depth. We will get there best shot tomorrow. I truly believe if they won last week the line would of been -18-21... So were getting a 7-10 point advantage.

Bottom Line: Ole Miss will win but not in blow out form. By my line Ole Miss should be -20 and I believe that will be right on in the end.
38-21, 42-24 type of game..

 

[HottyToddy]

Here's the entire card: Huge weekend and could determine how the year shakes out.

Umass +18- 4 units
Umass +575- 1/2 unit- Vandy is awful and it could happen. Just a shot in the dark with that much + money vs a terrible team.
Miss State -15.5- 7 units
Miss State -12- 9units
Cental Michigan +7- 6 units
Central Michigan +220- 1 unit
UL Lafeyette +28- 6 units
Arkansas +2- 3 units

Final Card with 36.5 units at risk. It's a make it or break it weekend boys. May add some 1st half plays later but nothing huge. Again good luck to all.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Best of luck HT.............

 

[HottyToddy]

Thank you WS... Is Gurley going to run wild tomorrow?

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Thank you WS... Is Gurley going to run wild tomorrow?

They've had some tough trips there lately so it won't be easy...........Best trip there was in 2006 when they won 18-0......That said, last two times they went to Colombia they have lost, including the behind the woodshed 35-7 beatdown a few years ago....2002 Georgia won by 6, 2004 they won by 4, 2008 they won by 7 so hopefully it is more like one of those games at least.....Best of luck.

 

[HottyToddy]

No halftime lines... That is the final card

 

[MattyMatt]

Good luck, HT! Let's have a huge Saturday. ENJOY...