Handicapping horses is fun. It is also far more complex than handicapping sports, which is why those who start with horses and then turn to sports often do very well.
In my opinion, and I have written (and published!) a great number of articles on horses and handicapping, the game cannot, long-term, be beaten in any traditional manner (including watching replay tapes, trip 'capping etc).
Would even a great poker player stand any chance if the host cut every pot by 20%? That's what you are up against in horse racing.
Illicit shenanigans go on at every track in the land. A small owner is not usually privy to the big moves. (Trainers regard owners as a necessary evil, just one step above the fans. I have heard them express great contempt for the folks who pay the bills. One had a list of "100 Excuses" to supply to the owner as to why his horse lost the race.)
The average fan thinks that all races are "fixed." He thinks that it's like pro wrestling, where A wins this race, B wins that one, etc.
Nothing of the kind. But jockeys do "pull" favorites on occasion, usually because they have a heavy investment in the exacta and/or trifecta or perfecta on the better odds horses. The late (and to me, unlamented) Bill Shoemaker did this frequently.
One rider in Northern California some 15 years ago openly boasted of this; not publicly but to his buddies in the jockey's room. He was later found dead underneath a bridge. (Ya had it comin', Ron)
Trainers do administer illicit drugs to their equine charges, to get a leg up, so to speak. I'm not just talking about the leaky roof circuit - brand name guys, top dog trainers, do it. Everybody's doin' it . . . Which is why lovers of the sport think that US racing should emulate Europe, and bar ALL race-day medications (Lasix is notorious for masking more potent drugs.)
Riders do use buzzers - known on the backstretch as joints or machines. Again, not just at Leaky Roof Downs. At the major plants in the land. When you only hear of some poor downtrodden quarter horse rider getting nailed for a joint, it's just hypocrisy. The batteries are buzzin' at every major track . . . No, not every race. But maybe a few a week.
Want to see something amusing? Get yourself on the Hollypark or Santa Anita backstretch during the AM works. You'll see discarded joints all over the place. Some horses - known as "machine horses" -just won't work in the morning without the jolt. Kind of like some humans with their caffeine . . .
This isn't sour grapes. I've been posting my picks in the racing forum since June, when I have the time and inclination to go thru the entries at a bunch of tracks. I'm comfortably ahead --- so far. (As anyone can attest by checking my posts on that board..)And will post again on Breeders' Cup Day, Nov 4. I use two systems of my own making, a distillation of many, many published handicapping and system articles.
It's a great game. Badly flawed. It always was, and likely always will be.
Can you win? Without being a crooked trainer privy to every dirty trick in the book?
Yeah, I think so. Well, maybe so. By intelligent reading of the tote board. The bandits can't hide the money (tho of course some do bet with books.) It takes great patience and quick movement near post time. I mean, fukkin work! And a ton of stress. But I've done it sucessfully a lot of times at the track - difficult to do online. And it works better at some tracks than others.
Some 20 years ago I wrote an article for a skin mag delineating in detail how to do this, to read the tote as a gypsy seer reads tea leaves. (If anyone by chance has the article, please don't note my name. It is a pseudonym, but one I've used in the scribble biz for years. Would like to keep it private,ie off all discussion boards.)
I don't think the OP hates the game. Jeremiads like that come usually from someone stuck on the game. He has the right to the critique. Likely he's paid his dues.
Me too. Not as enthusiastic about in when I used to sneak into Aqueduct as a kid, but still find it - ah - interesting. (Tho I'll be watching football on Nov 4, and will switch channels only to see the actual races, not all the bullshit hype in betweeen.)