2016 Breeders' Cup Preview
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 4th and Saturday, November 5th at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. Handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.
Day 1 - Friday, Nov. 4, 2016
Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time
Juvenile Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 5:25 p.m. ET
Dirt Mile $1,000,000 1 Mile 6:05 p.m. ET
Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 6:50 p.m. ET
Distaff $2,000,000 1 1/8 Miles 7:35 p.m. ET
Day 2 - Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016
Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time
Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles 3:05 p.m. ET
Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000 1 1/4 Miles 3:45 p.m. ET
Sprint $1,500,000 6 Furlongs 4:21 p.m. ET
Turf Sprint $1,000,000 6.5 Furlongs 5:05 p.m. ET
Juvenile $2,000,000 1 1/16 miles 5:43 p.m. ET
Turf $4,000,000 1 1/2 miles 6:22 p.m. ET
Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000 7 Furlongs 7:01 p.m. ET
Mile $2,000,000 1 mile 7:40 p.m. ET
Classic $6,000,000 1 1/4 miles 8:35 p.m. ET
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 4th and Saturday, November 5th at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. Handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.
Day 1 - Friday, Nov. 4, 2016
Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time
Juvenile Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 5:25 p.m. ET
Dirt Mile $1,000,000 1 Mile 6:05 p.m. ET
Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 6:50 p.m. ET
Distaff $2,000,000 1 1/8 Miles 7:35 p.m. ET
Day 2 - Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016
Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time
Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles 3:05 p.m. ET
Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000 1 1/4 Miles 3:45 p.m. ET
Sprint $1,500,000 6 Furlongs 4:21 p.m. ET
Turf Sprint $1,000,000 6.5 Furlongs 5:05 p.m. ET
Juvenile $2,000,000 1 1/16 miles 5:43 p.m. ET
Turf $4,000,000 1 1/2 miles 6:22 p.m. ET
Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000 7 Furlongs 7:01 p.m. ET
Mile $2,000,000 1 mile 7:40 p.m. ET
Classic $6,000,000 1 1/4 miles 8:35 p.m. ET
Breeders' Cup Facts and Figures
By Anthony Stabile
Historical Betting Notes
Favorites are 96 for 292 (33%) in the 32 year history of the event, while those that were odds on favorites (under even money) are 26 for 55 (47%). The 1990 Juvenile Fillies at Belmont produced the shortest price in Breeders’ Cup history when Meadow Star returned $2.40.
Only one of the 39 horses that have gone off at 100-1 or higher has hit the board. Arcangues came from the other side of the pond to win the 1993 Classic as the biggest longshot in Breeders’ Cup history, returning $269.20.
Inside Information posted the largest margin of victory in Breeders’ Cup history when she walloped her competition by 13 ½ lengths in the 1995 Distaff at Belmont. Eighteen horses have won by the shortest margin of victory, a nose, including Bayern the 2014 Classic.
Foreign based runners have had tremendous success in Breeders’ Cup events. They’ve won 57 races overall, including a remarkable 46 of the 106 (43%) run on the grass. They’ve won seven on conventional dirt and four synthetic track races.
Zenyatta, Beholder, Secret Circle and Stephanie’s Kitten are the only horses to ever win two different events. Goldikova is the only horse to ever win three Breeders’ Cup races.
Horses that have won multiple Breeders’ Cup races
Bayakoa – Distaff – 1989, 1990
Beholder – Juvenile Fillies - 2012, Distaff - 2013
Conduit – Turf – 2008, 2009
Da Hoss – Mile – 1996, 1998
Goldencents – Dirt Mile – 2013, 2014
Goldikova – Mile – 2008, 2009, 2010
Groupie Doll – F&M Sprint - 2012, 2013
High Chapparal – Turf – 2002, 2003 (dead heat w/Johar)
Lure – Mile – 1992, 1993
Midnight Lute – Sprint – 2007, 2008
Miesque – Mile – 1987, 1988
Mizdirection – Turf Sprint – 2012, 2013
Ouija Board – F&M Turf – 2004, 2006
Royal Delta – Distaff – 2011, 2012
Secret Circle – 2011 Juvenile Sprint/2013 Sprint
Stephanie’s Kitten – 2011 Juvenile Fillies, Turf , 2015 - F&M Turf
Tiznow – Classic – 2000, 2001
Wise Dan – Mile – 2012, 2013
Zenyatta – Distaff - 2008, Classic -2009
By Anthony Stabile
Historical Betting Notes
Favorites are 96 for 292 (33%) in the 32 year history of the event, while those that were odds on favorites (under even money) are 26 for 55 (47%). The 1990 Juvenile Fillies at Belmont produced the shortest price in Breeders’ Cup history when Meadow Star returned $2.40.
Only one of the 39 horses that have gone off at 100-1 or higher has hit the board. Arcangues came from the other side of the pond to win the 1993 Classic as the biggest longshot in Breeders’ Cup history, returning $269.20.
Inside Information posted the largest margin of victory in Breeders’ Cup history when she walloped her competition by 13 ½ lengths in the 1995 Distaff at Belmont. Eighteen horses have won by the shortest margin of victory, a nose, including Bayern the 2014 Classic.
Foreign based runners have had tremendous success in Breeders’ Cup events. They’ve won 57 races overall, including a remarkable 46 of the 106 (43%) run on the grass. They’ve won seven on conventional dirt and four synthetic track races.
Zenyatta, Beholder, Secret Circle and Stephanie’s Kitten are the only horses to ever win two different events. Goldikova is the only horse to ever win three Breeders’ Cup races.
Horses that have won multiple Breeders’ Cup races
Bayakoa – Distaff – 1989, 1990
Beholder – Juvenile Fillies - 2012, Distaff - 2013
Conduit – Turf – 2008, 2009
Da Hoss – Mile – 1996, 1998
Goldencents – Dirt Mile – 2013, 2014
Goldikova – Mile – 2008, 2009, 2010
Groupie Doll – F&M Sprint - 2012, 2013
High Chapparal – Turf – 2002, 2003 (dead heat w/Johar)
Lure – Mile – 1992, 1993
Midnight Lute – Sprint – 2007, 2008
Miesque – Mile – 1987, 1988
Mizdirection – Turf Sprint – 2012, 2013
Ouija Board – F&M Turf – 2004, 2006
Royal Delta – Distaff – 2011, 2012
Secret Circle – 2011 Juvenile Sprint/2013 Sprint
Stephanie’s Kitten – 2011 Juvenile Fillies, Turf , 2015 - F&M Turf
Tiznow – Classic – 2000, 2001
Wise Dan – Mile – 2012, 2013
Zenyatta – Distaff - 2008, Classic -2009
Breeder's Cup Classic horse-by-horse betting odds, preview and picks
By MONIQUE VÁG
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic race surely has “Horse of the Year” honors on the line. California Chrome looks to end this year undefeated and extend his historic lead on purse money earned. He’ll be up against quite a few familiar faces as well as some newcomers hoping to dethrone the king at Santa Anita Saturday.
Here’s a look at the field for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, according to gate:
1. Effinex (Jockey: Flavien Prat, odds 15-1): Loses his regular pilot Mike Smith to the likes of the flashy Arrogate. He’s well suited racing a mile and quarter and will likely attempt to work out a nice ground saving rail trip. He’s raced well on the East Coast, but makes the trip to California for only the second time in his career.
2. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 5-1): It’s almost impossible to overlook his dominant Metropolitan Handicap victory. Despite that eye-catching run, his last start was problematic to me. It seemed like he was ridden a little bit too confidently and certainly showed he was vulnerable. Racing at his best he certainly has a shot to pull off the minor upset but I haven’t seen him respond well enough to the whip in order to warrant my consideration for winning the Classic, but I do think he has the chops to place.
3. Keen Ice (Javier Castellano, 20-1): His last victory was the huge upset win over American Pharoah and Frosted in the 2015 edition of the Travers Stakes. He’s certainly been disappointing this year and hasn’t shown much of that closing kick he used that day to pull off the upset. His last start in early October was his first in almost seven months and he disappointed at a very short price. It would be a huge shock to see him competitive Saturday.
4. California Chrome (Victor Espinoza, EVEN): He’s shown the world a different kind of versatility this year by winning his last two while racing on the lead. I’m sure he’s excited to return home to California and Santa Anita - a track where he won his racing debut. He’s clearly the most accomplished, proven, and impressive of the bunch. The question becomes how short of a price at post time are you willing to take?
5. Win the Space (Gary Stevens, 30-1): He hasn’t won yet within the graded stakes ranks and the Classic doesn’t look to be any different. He looked overmatched in his last start, and two starts back he pulled up midway through and never finished the race. It is tough to make a case for this one, other than the fact that he has quite the racing experience over the Santa Anita surface.
6. Melatonin (Joe Talamo, 12-1): Exits a victory at a short price in the Santa Anita Gold Cup. He’s a perfect 4-4 over this surface and showed that he’s capable of competing against graded stakes horses. He’s been no worse than second since Joe Talamo took over the reins which adds to his appeal. He undoubtedly faces his toughest task to date against some of the nation’s best.
7. War Story (Scott Spieth, 30-1): Has been claimed six times over the past year and a bit, which usually isn’t a very good sign. He hasn’t had a steady jockey either, also never a good thing. Last time he raced against California Chrome was in the Pacific Classic where he went off at odds of 99-1. While he won’t be that price at post time, he’ll be the longest shot on the board and I’d be shocked if he finishes ahead of anyone.
8. Shaman Ghost (Jose Ortiz Jr., 20-1): Exits out of a big upset win in the Woodward stakes defeating Frosted. In that last start he tried Lasix for the first time which definitely could have proven to be a contributing factor. He certainly appreciates racing anything over a mile in distance, and I think he will attempt to work out a similar trip racing close just off the pace like he did over his last two victories.
9. Hoppertunity (John Velazquez, 15-1): Conveniently dodged the likes of Dortmund and California Chrome in his last showing and settled for a race against a much easier field in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He’s consistently shown up and given races a good effort, but he’s been second best to California Chrome a handful of times and I don’t think today is the day he turns the table.
10. Arrogate (Mike Smith, 5-2): Completely dominated the Travers Stakes setting a track record time opening up to a 13.5-length victory. He’s been very impressive since his first career start, breaking his maiden second time up and dominating Grade 1 company in his first attempt at a stakes race. He does have a lot working against him in the Breeder’s Cup Classic: the extreme outside post and facing multiple graded stakes winners. While I can’t take anything away from what he’s shown this year, I think he’s entered in just a little bit too tough against far more experienced and accomplished horses.
Picks: 1. California Chrome 2. Frosted 3. Melatonin
By MONIQUE VÁG
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic race surely has “Horse of the Year” honors on the line. California Chrome looks to end this year undefeated and extend his historic lead on purse money earned. He’ll be up against quite a few familiar faces as well as some newcomers hoping to dethrone the king at Santa Anita Saturday.
Here’s a look at the field for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, according to gate:
1. Effinex (Jockey: Flavien Prat, odds 15-1): Loses his regular pilot Mike Smith to the likes of the flashy Arrogate. He’s well suited racing a mile and quarter and will likely attempt to work out a nice ground saving rail trip. He’s raced well on the East Coast, but makes the trip to California for only the second time in his career.
2. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 5-1): It’s almost impossible to overlook his dominant Metropolitan Handicap victory. Despite that eye-catching run, his last start was problematic to me. It seemed like he was ridden a little bit too confidently and certainly showed he was vulnerable. Racing at his best he certainly has a shot to pull off the minor upset but I haven’t seen him respond well enough to the whip in order to warrant my consideration for winning the Classic, but I do think he has the chops to place.
3. Keen Ice (Javier Castellano, 20-1): His last victory was the huge upset win over American Pharoah and Frosted in the 2015 edition of the Travers Stakes. He’s certainly been disappointing this year and hasn’t shown much of that closing kick he used that day to pull off the upset. His last start in early October was his first in almost seven months and he disappointed at a very short price. It would be a huge shock to see him competitive Saturday.
4. California Chrome (Victor Espinoza, EVEN): He’s shown the world a different kind of versatility this year by winning his last two while racing on the lead. I’m sure he’s excited to return home to California and Santa Anita - a track where he won his racing debut. He’s clearly the most accomplished, proven, and impressive of the bunch. The question becomes how short of a price at post time are you willing to take?
5. Win the Space (Gary Stevens, 30-1): He hasn’t won yet within the graded stakes ranks and the Classic doesn’t look to be any different. He looked overmatched in his last start, and two starts back he pulled up midway through and never finished the race. It is tough to make a case for this one, other than the fact that he has quite the racing experience over the Santa Anita surface.
6. Melatonin (Joe Talamo, 12-1): Exits a victory at a short price in the Santa Anita Gold Cup. He’s a perfect 4-4 over this surface and showed that he’s capable of competing against graded stakes horses. He’s been no worse than second since Joe Talamo took over the reins which adds to his appeal. He undoubtedly faces his toughest task to date against some of the nation’s best.
7. War Story (Scott Spieth, 30-1): Has been claimed six times over the past year and a bit, which usually isn’t a very good sign. He hasn’t had a steady jockey either, also never a good thing. Last time he raced against California Chrome was in the Pacific Classic where he went off at odds of 99-1. While he won’t be that price at post time, he’ll be the longest shot on the board and I’d be shocked if he finishes ahead of anyone.
8. Shaman Ghost (Jose Ortiz Jr., 20-1): Exits out of a big upset win in the Woodward stakes defeating Frosted. In that last start he tried Lasix for the first time which definitely could have proven to be a contributing factor. He certainly appreciates racing anything over a mile in distance, and I think he will attempt to work out a similar trip racing close just off the pace like he did over his last two victories.
9. Hoppertunity (John Velazquez, 15-1): Conveniently dodged the likes of Dortmund and California Chrome in his last showing and settled for a race against a much easier field in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He’s consistently shown up and given races a good effort, but he’s been second best to California Chrome a handful of times and I don’t think today is the day he turns the table.
10. Arrogate (Mike Smith, 5-2): Completely dominated the Travers Stakes setting a track record time opening up to a 13.5-length victory. He’s been very impressive since his first career start, breaking his maiden second time up and dominating Grade 1 company in his first attempt at a stakes race. He does have a lot working against him in the Breeder’s Cup Classic: the extreme outside post and facing multiple graded stakes winners. While I can’t take anything away from what he’s shown this year, I think he’s entered in just a little bit too tough against far more experienced and accomplished horses.
Picks: 1. California Chrome 2. Frosted 3. Melatonin
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$16000 - NW $9,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 5 DIALAMARA 8/1
# 8 BELIEVE THIS BOB 8/1
# 7 VELOCITY DRIVEN 9/2
The consensus in this contest is that DIALAMARA is the one to beat and the big morning line could mean a big score. A very nice win figure has been recorded by interesting entrants beginning from the 5 hole. BELIEVE THIS BOB - Deserves a shot given the successful win percent he sports. He has been doing work sharply and the speed ratings are among the most competitive in the bunch. VELOCITY DRIVEN - Horoscope said take a chance today, this nice horse is as good as any to take a shot with.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$16000 - NW $9,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 5 DIALAMARA 8/1
# 8 BELIEVE THIS BOB 8/1
# 7 VELOCITY DRIVEN 9/2
The consensus in this contest is that DIALAMARA is the one to beat and the big morning line could mean a big score. A very nice win figure has been recorded by interesting entrants beginning from the 5 hole. BELIEVE THIS BOB - Deserves a shot given the successful win percent he sports. He has been doing work sharply and the speed ratings are among the most competitive in the bunch. VELOCITY DRIVEN - Horoscope said take a chance today, this nice horse is as good as any to take a shot with.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 96 - Purse:$22000 - NON-WINNERS OF $20,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 2 CLEAR VISION 9/5
# 1 MCARDLES LIGHTNING 2/1
# 4 ROCK ON MOE 5/1
CLEAR VISION will not be denied the victory in this one. Worth considering here looking at the ratings in the TrackMaster Speed Rating department alone. It's a bit risky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the best class figures of the group. Had one of the finest speed ratings of the field in his last competition. Must use in your bets. MCARDLES LIGHTNING - Could very well provide us a top prize based on competitive recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 99. Seems to have a good class edge based on the starters he has faced. ROCK ON MOE - That 92 TrackMaster speed fig clocked in the most recent affair puts this harness racer in the mix in this event. Plays on Daley's starters off a layoff show a better than average return on investment percentage.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 96 - Purse:$22000 - NON-WINNERS OF $20,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 2 CLEAR VISION 9/5
# 1 MCARDLES LIGHTNING 2/1
# 4 ROCK ON MOE 5/1
CLEAR VISION will not be denied the victory in this one. Worth considering here looking at the ratings in the TrackMaster Speed Rating department alone. It's a bit risky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the best class figures of the group. Had one of the finest speed ratings of the field in his last competition. Must use in your bets. MCARDLES LIGHTNING - Could very well provide us a top prize based on competitive recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 99. Seems to have a good class edge based on the starters he has faced. ROCK ON MOE - That 92 TrackMaster speed fig clocked in the most recent affair puts this harness racer in the mix in this event. Plays on Daley's starters off a layoff show a better than average return on investment percentage.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Stakes - 12.0f on the Turf. Purse: $4000000 Class Rating: 127
LONGINES BREEDERS' CUP TURF - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. ALL FILLIES AND MARES ALLOWED 3 LBS. $50,000 TO PRE-ENTER, $50,000 TO ENTER, WITH GUARANTEED $4MILLION PURSE INCLUDING TRAVEL AWARDS OF WHICH 55% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 17% TO SECOND,
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 12 HIGHLAND REEL (IRE) 3/1
# 10 FOUND (IRE) 3/1
# 2 DA BIG HOSS 20/1
HIGHLAND REEL (IRE) is my choice. This colt could improve on Lasix. With a competitive 130 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Displays solid speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of animals. FOUND (IRE) - Might wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. Ran a sharp last race. DA BIG HOSS - Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me favor this horse. Has been running quite well lately and should be close to the front end early on.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Stakes - 12.0f on the Turf. Purse: $4000000 Class Rating: 127
LONGINES BREEDERS' CUP TURF - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. ALL FILLIES AND MARES ALLOWED 3 LBS. $50,000 TO PRE-ENTER, $50,000 TO ENTER, WITH GUARANTEED $4MILLION PURSE INCLUDING TRAVEL AWARDS OF WHICH 55% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 17% TO SECOND,
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 12 HIGHLAND REEL (IRE) 3/1
# 10 FOUND (IRE) 3/1
# 2 DA BIG HOSS 20/1
HIGHLAND REEL (IRE) is my choice. This colt could improve on Lasix. With a competitive 130 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Displays solid speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of animals. FOUND (IRE) - Might wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. Ran a sharp last race. DA BIG HOSS - Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me favor this horse. Has been running quite well lately and should be close to the front end early on.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 71
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. MAIDENS ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, FOR EACH $250 TO $4,500 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 4 SLEWS LOVE 5/1
# 2 DRIVE AT NITE 9/5
# 3 SWEET STEPPIN 12/1
I've got to go with SLEWS LOVE. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group of horses in this race in his last affair. DRIVE AT NITE - Might best this group of horses here, showing decent figs of late. With a very good 81 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. SWEET STEPPIN - Salzman has this gelding racing well and is a competitive choice based on the respectable Equibase Speed Figures put up in sprint races lately.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 71
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. MAIDENS ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, FOR EACH $250 TO $4,500 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 4 SLEWS LOVE 5/1
# 2 DRIVE AT NITE 9/5
# 3 SWEET STEPPIN 12/1
I've got to go with SLEWS LOVE. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group of horses in this race in his last affair. DRIVE AT NITE - Might best this group of horses here, showing decent figs of late. With a very good 81 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. SWEET STEPPIN - Salzman has this gelding racing well and is a competitive choice based on the respectable Equibase Speed Figures put up in sprint races lately.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:28pm - Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 80
Rating:
#3 IMAGINETHATMOM (ML=4/1)
#5 SUNSHINE VALENTINO (ML=8/1)
IMAGINETHATMOM - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on October 25th. Should be in tune with the horse even better this time. SUNSHINE VALENTINO - Lots of positive 'vibes' joined to this thoroughbred and his connections.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LEWIS' ANNA (ML=8/5), #2 ASSEMBLY HALL (ML=5/2), #7 WILD COMMAND (ML=9/2),
LEWIS' ANNA - If you keep choosing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned most of the time. This entrant ran a run-of-the-mill rating in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will likely get beat in today's event running that figure. ASSEMBLY HALL - Finished third in his most recent race with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. WILD COMMAND - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Hard to play him on the top end.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 IMAGINETHATMOM to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:28pm - Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 80
Rating:
#3 IMAGINETHATMOM (ML=4/1)
#5 SUNSHINE VALENTINO (ML=8/1)
IMAGINETHATMOM - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on October 25th. Should be in tune with the horse even better this time. SUNSHINE VALENTINO - Lots of positive 'vibes' joined to this thoroughbred and his connections.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LEWIS' ANNA (ML=8/5), #2 ASSEMBLY HALL (ML=5/2), #7 WILD COMMAND (ML=9/2),
LEWIS' ANNA - If you keep choosing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned most of the time. This entrant ran a run-of-the-mill rating in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will likely get beat in today's event running that figure. ASSEMBLY HALL - Finished third in his most recent race with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. WILD COMMAND - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Hard to play him on the top end.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 IMAGINETHATMOM to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
California Chrome in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is the headliner but we have nine championship races on tap and tons of great betting opportunities.
The Breeders’ Cup races kicks off Saturday with the fourth race on the 12-race card at Santa Anita, a field of 12 going in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies (G1).
It’s an east-west showdown between Frizette (G1) winner Yellow Agate and Spinaway winner Sweet Loretta shipping in from New York to take on Chandelier (G1) winner Noted and Quoted and Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner Union Strike.
Toss in Dancing Rags, the winner of the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland, and we are going to get off to a rousing start.
The $1 million Filly & Mare Turf (G1) drew an international field of 13, with Lady Eli everyone’s favorite. The filly has overcome a bout with laminitis to make it back to the track and probably goes off as the betting favorite.
She faces a few tough Euro shippers in Queen’s Trust and Seventh Heaven, and don’t dismiss her stablemate Sea Calisi.
The $1.5 million Sprint will feature just seven with the scratches of Lord Nelson and Joking. The best of the east is A.P. Indian, who rides a four race winning streak. Masochistic and Defrong are going to be heard from and have the home field advantage.
The $1 million Turf Sprint is a wide open affair and usually goes to horses with experience going the 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill course. That could give the edge to Ambitious Brew, but he faces a talented group including a few Euros who have never won this race.
The early favorite for the Kentucky Derby will be produced in the $1 million Juvenile. There are some promising colts including Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Classic Empire and Frontrunner (G1) winner Klimt. If you are playing the Pick 6, go deep here.
The $4 million Turf goes through defending champion Found, who won this year’s Arc (G1). He stablemate Highland Reel looks legit as does Flintshire and possibly longshot Money Multiplier.
The $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint drew 13 led by Carina Mia who cuts back in distance after being unable to handle Songbird. She catches a solid group including defending champion Wavell Avenue.
Tepin is the defending champion in the Mile but after she was upset in the First Lady (G1) last out at Keenland, perhaps she can be beaten. The Euros include Alice Springs and Limato and they must catch the speedy Photo Call, who upset Tepin in the First Lady.
The $6 million Classic is going to be a great way to end the day. Can Frosted or Arrogate run back to their huge numbers they earned earlier this year?
California Chrome has looked so good this year, but at even money, we have to take a stab against him, don’t we?
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:20 ET)
#8 Proud Zip 3-1
#4 Sir Alfred 2-1
#2 Cause for Surprise 5-1
#1 Will Did It 4-1
Analysis: Proud Zip stumbled coming out of the gate, pressed the early pace and finished gamely to just miss by a neck last out at this level going six furlongs on turf. He broke his maiden on the main track at Belmont Park two back going a mile over a wet track. he should get a good tracking trip behind the speed here breaking from the outside and picks up Gallardo.
Sir Alfred prompted the early pace and came with a good five wide bid taking over and beating $50,000 non-winners of two last out at Keeneland in a sharp effort. the Pletcher trainee owns a slid pace profile throughout and finds a good spot here facing starter allowance foes as he came up short in three tries against Alw-1 company after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park back in April off a year layoff. He has now landed in the exacta in 7 of 9 career starts and is the logical one to beat here as the favorite.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 1,2,4,8
TRI: 4,8 / 1,2,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Tempted G3 (4:07 ET)
#6 Eloquent Riddle 6-1
#2 Sky Gesture 7-2
#1 Cursor 3-1
#4 Miss Sky Warrior 5-2
Analysis: Eloquent Riddle was a good looking maiden winner in her debut and while she did not earn a high speed figure she did it well and looks to have some upside. She was bumped coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace, angled down to the inside for running room in the stretch and finished up well. By Harlan's Holiday out of a Distorted Humor mare, her first foal to race, she should get better with more ground. Brown hits at a 31% clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
Sky Gesture went gate to wire to break her maiden in her debut and then stumbled coming out of the gate last out in the Frizette (G1), tracked the early pace and came up empty in the stretch in a fifth-place finish. She fits well here of she runs back to her maiden score. She is out of a stakes placed Grand Slam mare that has dropped two other winners, top earner stakes winner Noble and a Beauty ($183,500).
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 8 The BC Juvenile G1 (2:43 PT)
#5 Classic Empire 4-1
#7 Gormley 5-1
#10 Not This Time 7-2
#9 Practical Joke 6-1
Analysis: Classic Empire bounced back from wheeling and dumping the jock two back in the Hopeful (G1) but adding blinkers and looking very professional winning the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. The Mark Casse trainee tracked the early pace and drew off in the stretch to win by three lengths. The $475,000 Keeneland purchase is a half to fellow stakes winners Anytime Magic ($198,650). The colt looks as if he still has a ton of upside.
Gormley was able to jump out to a fairly easy lead and took the field gate to wire to win the Frontrunner (G1) last out, a race that has produced the last two winners of this race. The colt is trained by John Sherriffs of Zenyatta fame who brings along runners slower than most, but this colt was smart looking maiden winner at Del Mar in his debut. The colt is out of the stakes winner Race to Urge ($182,816).
Not This Time overcame hopping at the break to finish strongly and win the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his first go against winners. He broke his maiden two back at Ellis Park by 10 lengths. The runner up and third place finisher in that race came back to graduate in their next starts. He is out of the stakes winner Miss Macy Sue ($880,915) who has dropped two other stakes winners, top earner Liam's Map ($1.3 million) last year's Dirt Mile winner.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10
TRI: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10 / 1,5,7,9,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #4 Zigarch 8-1
R3: #1 True Bet 8-1
R5: #4 Kyanite 10-1
R7: #1 Midnight Notes 8-1
R9: #4 Saratoga Citizen 8-1
R9: #5 Party Mint Star 10-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
California Chrome in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is the headliner but we have nine championship races on tap and tons of great betting opportunities.
The Breeders’ Cup races kicks off Saturday with the fourth race on the 12-race card at Santa Anita, a field of 12 going in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies (G1).
It’s an east-west showdown between Frizette (G1) winner Yellow Agate and Spinaway winner Sweet Loretta shipping in from New York to take on Chandelier (G1) winner Noted and Quoted and Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner Union Strike.
Toss in Dancing Rags, the winner of the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland, and we are going to get off to a rousing start.
The $1 million Filly & Mare Turf (G1) drew an international field of 13, with Lady Eli everyone’s favorite. The filly has overcome a bout with laminitis to make it back to the track and probably goes off as the betting favorite.
She faces a few tough Euro shippers in Queen’s Trust and Seventh Heaven, and don’t dismiss her stablemate Sea Calisi.
The $1.5 million Sprint will feature just seven with the scratches of Lord Nelson and Joking. The best of the east is A.P. Indian, who rides a four race winning streak. Masochistic and Defrong are going to be heard from and have the home field advantage.
The $1 million Turf Sprint is a wide open affair and usually goes to horses with experience going the 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill course. That could give the edge to Ambitious Brew, but he faces a talented group including a few Euros who have never won this race.
The early favorite for the Kentucky Derby will be produced in the $1 million Juvenile. There are some promising colts including Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Classic Empire and Frontrunner (G1) winner Klimt. If you are playing the Pick 6, go deep here.
The $4 million Turf goes through defending champion Found, who won this year’s Arc (G1). He stablemate Highland Reel looks legit as does Flintshire and possibly longshot Money Multiplier.
The $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint drew 13 led by Carina Mia who cuts back in distance after being unable to handle Songbird. She catches a solid group including defending champion Wavell Avenue.
Tepin is the defending champion in the Mile but after she was upset in the First Lady (G1) last out at Keenland, perhaps she can be beaten. The Euros include Alice Springs and Limato and they must catch the speedy Photo Call, who upset Tepin in the First Lady.
The $6 million Classic is going to be a great way to end the day. Can Frosted or Arrogate run back to their huge numbers they earned earlier this year?
California Chrome has looked so good this year, but at even money, we have to take a stab against him, don’t we?
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:20 ET)
#8 Proud Zip 3-1
#4 Sir Alfred 2-1
#2 Cause for Surprise 5-1
#1 Will Did It 4-1
Analysis: Proud Zip stumbled coming out of the gate, pressed the early pace and finished gamely to just miss by a neck last out at this level going six furlongs on turf. He broke his maiden on the main track at Belmont Park two back going a mile over a wet track. he should get a good tracking trip behind the speed here breaking from the outside and picks up Gallardo.
Sir Alfred prompted the early pace and came with a good five wide bid taking over and beating $50,000 non-winners of two last out at Keeneland in a sharp effort. the Pletcher trainee owns a slid pace profile throughout and finds a good spot here facing starter allowance foes as he came up short in three tries against Alw-1 company after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park back in April off a year layoff. He has now landed in the exacta in 7 of 9 career starts and is the logical one to beat here as the favorite.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 1,2,4,8
TRI: 4,8 / 1,2,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Tempted G3 (4:07 ET)
#6 Eloquent Riddle 6-1
#2 Sky Gesture 7-2
#1 Cursor 3-1
#4 Miss Sky Warrior 5-2
Analysis: Eloquent Riddle was a good looking maiden winner in her debut and while she did not earn a high speed figure she did it well and looks to have some upside. She was bumped coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace, angled down to the inside for running room in the stretch and finished up well. By Harlan's Holiday out of a Distorted Humor mare, her first foal to race, she should get better with more ground. Brown hits at a 31% clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
Sky Gesture went gate to wire to break her maiden in her debut and then stumbled coming out of the gate last out in the Frizette (G1), tracked the early pace and came up empty in the stretch in a fifth-place finish. She fits well here of she runs back to her maiden score. She is out of a stakes placed Grand Slam mare that has dropped two other winners, top earner stakes winner Noble and a Beauty ($183,500).
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 8 The BC Juvenile G1 (2:43 PT)
#5 Classic Empire 4-1
#7 Gormley 5-1
#10 Not This Time 7-2
#9 Practical Joke 6-1
Analysis: Classic Empire bounced back from wheeling and dumping the jock two back in the Hopeful (G1) but adding blinkers and looking very professional winning the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. The Mark Casse trainee tracked the early pace and drew off in the stretch to win by three lengths. The $475,000 Keeneland purchase is a half to fellow stakes winners Anytime Magic ($198,650). The colt looks as if he still has a ton of upside.
Gormley was able to jump out to a fairly easy lead and took the field gate to wire to win the Frontrunner (G1) last out, a race that has produced the last two winners of this race. The colt is trained by John Sherriffs of Zenyatta fame who brings along runners slower than most, but this colt was smart looking maiden winner at Del Mar in his debut. The colt is out of the stakes winner Race to Urge ($182,816).
Not This Time overcame hopping at the break to finish strongly and win the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his first go against winners. He broke his maiden two back at Ellis Park by 10 lengths. The runner up and third place finisher in that race came back to graduate in their next starts. He is out of the stakes winner Miss Macy Sue ($880,915) who has dropped two other stakes winners, top earner Liam's Map ($1.3 million) last year's Dirt Mile winner.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10
TRI: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10 / 1,5,7,9,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #4 Zigarch 8-1
R3: #1 True Bet 8-1
R5: #4 Kyanite 10-1
R7: #1 Midnight Notes 8-1
R9: #4 Saratoga Citizen 8-1
R9: #5 Party Mint Star 10-1
Good luck today!
Mohawk: Saturday 11/5 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,9,10/2,4,8/3,5,6/2,8/1,2,9 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 2,8/1,2,9/1,4,8,10/3,4 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,8/2,3,5/2,5,7/8 = $27
MEET STATS: 459 - 1366 / $2396.00 BEST BETS: 72 - 125 / $225.60
SPOT PLAYS: 31 - 125 / $203.20
Best Bet: AVATARIST (11th)
Spot Play: BLAYDE HANOVER (8th)
Race 1
(9) LEAVING A LEGACY has been racing tough every week now goes for the top barn off the claim here. She will be hard to beat probably. (10) CHARMING HILL was a strong second to the choice last time and is a contender here vs. mostly suspect foes but post 10 could be an issue for her. (1) GIA DIAMOND moves inside several posts for her 2nd try at this class after showing some late interest; using. (2) BALINSKA HANOVER is worth a look dropping into claimers and adding Lasix here.
Race 2
(8) SMASH HIT stayed in last week and took a major shuffle. She gets her regular pilot back here and she should be charging late. (4) HILL OF A COLT blew up on a wet track last time and lost all hope. If he stays flat here, he should prove tough to catch. (2) MUSCLE AVE beat a decent group at London last time and has shown he can produce more speed; using. (3) MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL could hang around for a smaller share at a price.
Race 3
(6) EASY LOVER HANOVER may have to change his style with a lot of early speed signed on here, but, he stands a good chance of keeping his win streak going. (5) ALEXAS JACKPOT drops from the top class and is sure to be a threat from close range. (3) JINS SHARK took a new life's mark last time but has now missed more than a month due to a vet scratch; your call. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER is one of many that may be in search of the front early here which will likely relegate him to a minor award here.
Race 4
(2) ZINGERS LAUGH has really turned it up in his last two starts and Henry sticks here; slight nod. (8) ELECTRIC WESTERN drops and he has had sharper early speed recently which is a sign that a big effort may be coming. (9) PROVEN DESIRE had a nice comeback race and he is capable of showing speed here. (3) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL is an obvious threat on class alone here, but I'll try to beat him - likely at a short price - coming off a vet scratch.
Race 5
(2) RENEGADE MAGIC continues to race well and she should get put into action earlier from an inside post here; top call. (1) MANOFMANYIMAGES had good speed both early and late last time which is one of my favorite bet backs; using. (9) HONOR ABOVE ALL is in top shape and he can take a lot of air and keep coming. He's another that you must have on multi-race tickets. (4) MARQUIS VOLO will likely fill one of the lower exotics rungs here.
Race 6
(4) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ has been sharp on the lead in both of his last two starts. This is not a tough step up; slight nod. (1) HOUSE OF TERROR moves into Moreau's barn after drifting way out down the lane while winning his last start. If Moreau fixes that issue he could be faster here. (8) BELIEVE IN BOB faced much better down south and sharp improvement here would not be a surprise. (10) COOL ROCK will likely be far back again early, but with a tightener in and the class drop, he should be passing many of these late.
Race 7
(4) BATOUTAHILL continues to roll right along, winning 4 of her last 5. I'm sticking with her here. (3) SAFEKEEPING has a similar profile as the choice and this could come down to a mini-match race between these two in the final 1/4. (8) MIAMI MAGIC is a great one to use for 3rd in your tris, likely at a price, as always. (7) DOTTIE, with 9 slices in 20 starts, is another good one to use on the bottom.
Race 8
(1) BLAYDE HANOVER fell victim to the October 22nd speed-killing bias which could help bring a decent price here; top call. (3) ALL THE COOKIES flew home last time to win. He will be dangerous here from close range. (8) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT could improve sharply here after getting a clean line last time. Toss him in the Pick 4. (7) DREAMY FELLA will be passing horses late for a slice here.
Race 9
(2) YOURE MAJESTIC has been racing well from outer posts for several starts now she moves inside. That post relief could help get her over the top here. (3) LADY PING was closer last time which could be a tell that an even better result is imminent. (5) WANAKA made a big move last time when falling just short. She is another that can take this contentious dash. (9) RAMAS LAST SON raced better last time and he can take a share here, too.
Race 10
(5) MACH CODE set solid fractions on route to a sharp win last week. He can double up in his current sharp form. (2) ARSENIC was a good second to the choice and he has a chance to bridge the gap here if he can land in the pocket at the outset. (7) DARCEE N is one of the best closers in the race and he should be coming late for a share. (1) PRESCOTTS HOPE returns with an eye to a winter campaign and he will likely need this race, but, he could sneak into the exotics.
Race 11
(8) AVATARTIST drops several levels after getting two tighteners in and he will likely be on a speed mission here. (2) LEAFS AND WINGS finally gets a good post which gives him a chance to start better and start his move earlier. (3) MR IRRESISTIBLE is likely to try to sit a trip this time and he can stick around for a share. (1) ASLAN should go better here in his second start back while dropping in class; consider for exotics. (7) SHOCK N ROCK will be near the front early again and he should stick around to make the High-5 ticket, at a minimum.
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,9,10/2,4,8/3,5,6/2,8/1,2,9 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 2,8/1,2,9/1,4,8,10/3,4 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,8/2,3,5/2,5,7/8 = $27
MEET STATS: 459 - 1366 / $2396.00 BEST BETS: 72 - 125 / $225.60
SPOT PLAYS: 31 - 125 / $203.20
Best Bet: AVATARIST (11th)
Spot Play: BLAYDE HANOVER (8th)
Race 1
(9) LEAVING A LEGACY has been racing tough every week now goes for the top barn off the claim here. She will be hard to beat probably. (10) CHARMING HILL was a strong second to the choice last time and is a contender here vs. mostly suspect foes but post 10 could be an issue for her. (1) GIA DIAMOND moves inside several posts for her 2nd try at this class after showing some late interest; using. (2) BALINSKA HANOVER is worth a look dropping into claimers and adding Lasix here.
Race 2
(8) SMASH HIT stayed in last week and took a major shuffle. She gets her regular pilot back here and she should be charging late. (4) HILL OF A COLT blew up on a wet track last time and lost all hope. If he stays flat here, he should prove tough to catch. (2) MUSCLE AVE beat a decent group at London last time and has shown he can produce more speed; using. (3) MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL could hang around for a smaller share at a price.
Race 3
(6) EASY LOVER HANOVER may have to change his style with a lot of early speed signed on here, but, he stands a good chance of keeping his win streak going. (5) ALEXAS JACKPOT drops from the top class and is sure to be a threat from close range. (3) JINS SHARK took a new life's mark last time but has now missed more than a month due to a vet scratch; your call. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER is one of many that may be in search of the front early here which will likely relegate him to a minor award here.
Race 4
(2) ZINGERS LAUGH has really turned it up in his last two starts and Henry sticks here; slight nod. (8) ELECTRIC WESTERN drops and he has had sharper early speed recently which is a sign that a big effort may be coming. (9) PROVEN DESIRE had a nice comeback race and he is capable of showing speed here. (3) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL is an obvious threat on class alone here, but I'll try to beat him - likely at a short price - coming off a vet scratch.
Race 5
(2) RENEGADE MAGIC continues to race well and she should get put into action earlier from an inside post here; top call. (1) MANOFMANYIMAGES had good speed both early and late last time which is one of my favorite bet backs; using. (9) HONOR ABOVE ALL is in top shape and he can take a lot of air and keep coming. He's another that you must have on multi-race tickets. (4) MARQUIS VOLO will likely fill one of the lower exotics rungs here.
Race 6
(4) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ has been sharp on the lead in both of his last two starts. This is not a tough step up; slight nod. (1) HOUSE OF TERROR moves into Moreau's barn after drifting way out down the lane while winning his last start. If Moreau fixes that issue he could be faster here. (8) BELIEVE IN BOB faced much better down south and sharp improvement here would not be a surprise. (10) COOL ROCK will likely be far back again early, but with a tightener in and the class drop, he should be passing many of these late.
Race 7
(4) BATOUTAHILL continues to roll right along, winning 4 of her last 5. I'm sticking with her here. (3) SAFEKEEPING has a similar profile as the choice and this could come down to a mini-match race between these two in the final 1/4. (8) MIAMI MAGIC is a great one to use for 3rd in your tris, likely at a price, as always. (7) DOTTIE, with 9 slices in 20 starts, is another good one to use on the bottom.
Race 8
(1) BLAYDE HANOVER fell victim to the October 22nd speed-killing bias which could help bring a decent price here; top call. (3) ALL THE COOKIES flew home last time to win. He will be dangerous here from close range. (8) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT could improve sharply here after getting a clean line last time. Toss him in the Pick 4. (7) DREAMY FELLA will be passing horses late for a slice here.
Race 9
(2) YOURE MAJESTIC has been racing well from outer posts for several starts now she moves inside. That post relief could help get her over the top here. (3) LADY PING was closer last time which could be a tell that an even better result is imminent. (5) WANAKA made a big move last time when falling just short. She is another that can take this contentious dash. (9) RAMAS LAST SON raced better last time and he can take a share here, too.
Race 10
(5) MACH CODE set solid fractions on route to a sharp win last week. He can double up in his current sharp form. (2) ARSENIC was a good second to the choice and he has a chance to bridge the gap here if he can land in the pocket at the outset. (7) DARCEE N is one of the best closers in the race and he should be coming late for a share. (1) PRESCOTTS HOPE returns with an eye to a winter campaign and he will likely need this race, but, he could sneak into the exotics.
Race 11
(8) AVATARTIST drops several levels after getting two tighteners in and he will likely be on a speed mission here. (2) LEAFS AND WINGS finally gets a good post which gives him a chance to start better and start his move earlier. (3) MR IRRESISTIBLE is likely to try to sit a trip this time and he can stick around for a share. (1) ASLAN should go better here in his second start back while dropping in class; consider for exotics. (7) SHOCK N ROCK will be near the front early again and he should stick around to make the High-5 ticket, at a minimum.
Meadowlands: Saturday 11/5 Analysis
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 25 - 53 / $109.60 (+$3.60)
BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $4.80 (-3.20)
Best Bet: WALNER (2nd)
Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (5th)
Race 1
(5) FEARLESS LEADER N made a nice move from the back to pick up a win in his U.S. debut at Freehold. While this is a slight step up, none of tonight’s competition is particularly sharp. (3) CARD SHOCK has a string of outside posts on his PP lines. He finally gets a nice starting spot and will have no excuses. (1) STIMULUS PLAN only has four career wins but a good portion of them have come at The Meadowlands.
Race 2
The only thing (9) WALNER has to fear is Walner himself. If he doesn’t make a mistake, he wins. (1) NEW JERSEY VIKING showed what he can do with a strong mile in last week’s Kindergarten division. I’m all in on this exacta and hoping for $7-8. (3) INTERNATIONAL MONI & (2) SHAKE IT OFF LINDY are both formidable for trainer Frank Antonacci, but I like #1 better underneath.
Race 3
(9) HUNCHIE looks abysmal on paper but has been facing slightly better company. Veteran returns to the Meadowlands tonight where he has gone some of his better miles this year and adds Tetrick. I’m inclined to roll the dice at a price in a field where none of the horses look enticing. (5) EVERY INTENTION got the call from Gingras over three others. (6) OUR JERRY LEE N spent plenty of time on the rim through hot fractions last week but rallied OK in his previous start.
Race 4
(1) AIR STRIKE tried to go down the road but got nipped at the wire by (8) CHIP WALTHER. That was this colt’s first start in two months and some minor improvement seems very possible. The latter has been on a roll with three straight wins. He rates as the favorite but far from unbeatable. (7) MAC’S JACKPOT has held his own this year and finished a close third behind the top pair last time.
Race 5
(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND has 13 wins the last few years at The Meadowlands and took care of business in his last two appearances at this level. Don’t hold that slow qualifying time last week against him. The winds were brutal and the track was very slow. (3) ALEXIE MATTOSIE picked up his game last week and should offer some value with David Miller picking off. (2) FAN OF TERROR could show speed in this spot and have a decent chance at an exotic position at least. (6) INSPIRATION VIEW was a bit better in the stretch with Lasix added last time.
Race 6
(1) SUNSHINE DELIGHT comes off a really nice Breeders Crown effort where she showed early speed and grinded nicely on the rim first-over. (3) HILLARMBRO was solid all year until last week; should rebound. (9) OVERDRAFT VOLO has been racing well and shouldn’t be hurt by the addition of David Miller in the bike.
Race 7
(8) IN THE ARSENAL came up with a strong effort last week and might finally be ready to step up after a rather disappointing 4-year-old campaign. (5) BETTOR ROCK ON N ships in off a no-shot mile from post seven at Yonkers and shows a winning mile in 1:50 here this year. (7) SOHO LENNON A was facing some top competition at Yonkers and does add Gingras to the team.
Race 8
I’ve changed my mind five times in this Kindergarten Final but I know playing against the heavy favorite makes sense. Ultimately I’m landing on (4) NO CHASER, who was just a steady fourth last time versus many in here, but does show a 1:51 3/5 win on her record at the Red Mile. I can see her either sitting the pocket behind the favored (6) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE or perhaps picking up live cover from one of the inside horses. Someomensomewhere just won the Breeders Crown and deserves plenty of respect but I’m not necessarily convinced she is going to warrant the likely 3-5 off-time price. (1) CAVIART ALLY flew home last week which probably means an underlay price tonight. She also has just one win and five second in 11 career starts. (3) GURL BAND K has won three straight and must be considered.
Race 9
(9) SOUTHWIND INDY gets some serious class relief for a barn that has started the meet hot. (3) TRUE BLUE HALL wasn’t going anywhere from outside posts in his last two starts. He seems to be in a decent spot but has missed 21 days; mixed feelings. (8) SCREAMAN SEAMAN A raced OK in his first start for new trainer Nick Surick and does get to drop off that mile. (6) GUANTANAMO BAY has plenty of early speed and Gingras hops in the bike now.
Race 10
(4) CITY PIE almost wired the field as the favorite last time and should offer decent value with Zeron picking off to (5) ELWELL, who gets class relief as he ships in to The Meadowlands. (8) MATTAMERICAN was used last time and held well to lose by only a few lengths.
Race 11
(8) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP appears to be as fast as any in this race and is certainly eligible to improve with Tetrick jumping in the bike for new trainer Valeriya Medik. (3) EVER AGAIN now has two sub 1:52 wins in the bank in his last four starts; respect. (7) SPICEBOMB has proven to be a strong closer and was placed on the engine last time; got nailed.
Race 12
(1) UNCLE LILE A lacked a big kick versus a tough group in his stateside debut. He gets a new driver and faces weaker competition this time around. (3) MY SPIRIT SOARS hasn’t done a thing in 2016 but does show a 1:49 3/5 win last year. It might be worth seeing how Ashley’s Husband and Polak A (Race 7 at Yonkers Saturday) perform before playing this guy. (8) TWINCREEKS JESSE seems like a worthwhile horse to play underneath.
Race 13
(1) BIG JER makes his second start off the bench, drops down and faces an awful field; winner by default. (9) SHOW ME UP has been stuck in outside posts on the half-mile track at Saratoga. He draws poorly again but at least Tetrick joins the equation. (7) LEGENDS LUCK fits nicely here and should get a good piece of the exotics. If you are playing the Super or Jackpot Hi-5, I’d advise using ALL for fourth and/or fifth.
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 25 - 53 / $109.60 (+$3.60)
BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $4.80 (-3.20)
Best Bet: WALNER (2nd)
Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (5th)
Race 1
(5) FEARLESS LEADER N made a nice move from the back to pick up a win in his U.S. debut at Freehold. While this is a slight step up, none of tonight’s competition is particularly sharp. (3) CARD SHOCK has a string of outside posts on his PP lines. He finally gets a nice starting spot and will have no excuses. (1) STIMULUS PLAN only has four career wins but a good portion of them have come at The Meadowlands.
Race 2
The only thing (9) WALNER has to fear is Walner himself. If he doesn’t make a mistake, he wins. (1) NEW JERSEY VIKING showed what he can do with a strong mile in last week’s Kindergarten division. I’m all in on this exacta and hoping for $7-8. (3) INTERNATIONAL MONI & (2) SHAKE IT OFF LINDY are both formidable for trainer Frank Antonacci, but I like #1 better underneath.
Race 3
(9) HUNCHIE looks abysmal on paper but has been facing slightly better company. Veteran returns to the Meadowlands tonight where he has gone some of his better miles this year and adds Tetrick. I’m inclined to roll the dice at a price in a field where none of the horses look enticing. (5) EVERY INTENTION got the call from Gingras over three others. (6) OUR JERRY LEE N spent plenty of time on the rim through hot fractions last week but rallied OK in his previous start.
Race 4
(1) AIR STRIKE tried to go down the road but got nipped at the wire by (8) CHIP WALTHER. That was this colt’s first start in two months and some minor improvement seems very possible. The latter has been on a roll with three straight wins. He rates as the favorite but far from unbeatable. (7) MAC’S JACKPOT has held his own this year and finished a close third behind the top pair last time.
Race 5
(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND has 13 wins the last few years at The Meadowlands and took care of business in his last two appearances at this level. Don’t hold that slow qualifying time last week against him. The winds were brutal and the track was very slow. (3) ALEXIE MATTOSIE picked up his game last week and should offer some value with David Miller picking off. (2) FAN OF TERROR could show speed in this spot and have a decent chance at an exotic position at least. (6) INSPIRATION VIEW was a bit better in the stretch with Lasix added last time.
Race 6
(1) SUNSHINE DELIGHT comes off a really nice Breeders Crown effort where she showed early speed and grinded nicely on the rim first-over. (3) HILLARMBRO was solid all year until last week; should rebound. (9) OVERDRAFT VOLO has been racing well and shouldn’t be hurt by the addition of David Miller in the bike.
Race 7
(8) IN THE ARSENAL came up with a strong effort last week and might finally be ready to step up after a rather disappointing 4-year-old campaign. (5) BETTOR ROCK ON N ships in off a no-shot mile from post seven at Yonkers and shows a winning mile in 1:50 here this year. (7) SOHO LENNON A was facing some top competition at Yonkers and does add Gingras to the team.
Race 8
I’ve changed my mind five times in this Kindergarten Final but I know playing against the heavy favorite makes sense. Ultimately I’m landing on (4) NO CHASER, who was just a steady fourth last time versus many in here, but does show a 1:51 3/5 win on her record at the Red Mile. I can see her either sitting the pocket behind the favored (6) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE or perhaps picking up live cover from one of the inside horses. Someomensomewhere just won the Breeders Crown and deserves plenty of respect but I’m not necessarily convinced she is going to warrant the likely 3-5 off-time price. (1) CAVIART ALLY flew home last week which probably means an underlay price tonight. She also has just one win and five second in 11 career starts. (3) GURL BAND K has won three straight and must be considered.
Race 9
(9) SOUTHWIND INDY gets some serious class relief for a barn that has started the meet hot. (3) TRUE BLUE HALL wasn’t going anywhere from outside posts in his last two starts. He seems to be in a decent spot but has missed 21 days; mixed feelings. (8) SCREAMAN SEAMAN A raced OK in his first start for new trainer Nick Surick and does get to drop off that mile. (6) GUANTANAMO BAY has plenty of early speed and Gingras hops in the bike now.
Race 10
(4) CITY PIE almost wired the field as the favorite last time and should offer decent value with Zeron picking off to (5) ELWELL, who gets class relief as he ships in to The Meadowlands. (8) MATTAMERICAN was used last time and held well to lose by only a few lengths.
Race 11
(8) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP appears to be as fast as any in this race and is certainly eligible to improve with Tetrick jumping in the bike for new trainer Valeriya Medik. (3) EVER AGAIN now has two sub 1:52 wins in the bank in his last four starts; respect. (7) SPICEBOMB has proven to be a strong closer and was placed on the engine last time; got nailed.
Race 12
(1) UNCLE LILE A lacked a big kick versus a tough group in his stateside debut. He gets a new driver and faces weaker competition this time around. (3) MY SPIRIT SOARS hasn’t done a thing in 2016 but does show a 1:49 3/5 win last year. It might be worth seeing how Ashley’s Husband and Polak A (Race 7 at Yonkers Saturday) perform before playing this guy. (8) TWINCREEKS JESSE seems like a worthwhile horse to play underneath.
Race 13
(1) BIG JER makes his second start off the bench, drops down and faces an awful field; winner by default. (9) SHOW ME UP has been stuck in outside posts on the half-mile track at Saratoga. He draws poorly again but at least Tetrick joins the equation. (7) LEGENDS LUCK fits nicely here and should get a good piece of the exotics. If you are playing the Super or Jackpot Hi-5, I’d advise using ALL for fourth and/or fifth.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 82
Rating:
#5 LITLMISSMARTYPANTS (ML=6/1)
LITLMISSMARTYPANTS - Lets try to beat the low-odds horses with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. Maragh was aboard this filly last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. Another way to identify class is earnings per start. This animal has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the end.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SILENT AUCTION (ML=5/2), #2 CAVALLETTA (ML=3/1), #6 THIS IS THE WAY (ML=4/1),
SILENT AUCTION - This animal doesn't have a champion's mental state. Almost always finishes second or third. Have to put a question mark next to the recent speed rating since it was garnered on the soft turf. CAVALLETTA - 3/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when looking at the most recent efforts. This mare hasn't had any strong efforts in short distance events in the last 60 days. THIS IS THE WAY - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing talent on October 28th. Should be difficult for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 LITLMISSMARTYPANTS on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 82
Rating:
#5 LITLMISSMARTYPANTS (ML=6/1)
LITLMISSMARTYPANTS - Lets try to beat the low-odds horses with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. Maragh was aboard this filly last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. Another way to identify class is earnings per start. This animal has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the end.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SILENT AUCTION (ML=5/2), #2 CAVALLETTA (ML=3/1), #6 THIS IS THE WAY (ML=4/1),
SILENT AUCTION - This animal doesn't have a champion's mental state. Almost always finishes second or third. Have to put a question mark next to the recent speed rating since it was garnered on the soft turf. CAVALLETTA - 3/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when looking at the most recent efforts. This mare hasn't had any strong efforts in short distance events in the last 60 days. THIS IS THE WAY - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing talent on October 28th. Should be difficult for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 LITLMISSMARTYPANTS on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (1st) Cause for Surprise, 4-1
(9th) Verdant Pastures, 3-1
Charles Town (4th) Bird Humor, 10-1
(6th) Furrfield Miss, 9-2
Churchill Downs (4th) Finley'sluckycharm, 3-1
(10th) Dame Wicked, 5-1
Delta Downs (1st) Branded Saint, 6-1
(9th) Win Lion Win, 8-1
Finger Lakes (6th) Starofthemountain, 8-1
(7th) Watergate, 6-1
Golden Gate Fields (6th) Moscato Girl, 7-2
(8th) He's Pepper, 9-2
Gulfstream Park West (1st) Cat Tree, 6-1
(7th) Extreme Justice, 4-1
Hawthorne (8th) Briar Hill Baron, 7-2
(9th) Divine Delivery, 6-1
Laurel Park (3rd) A True Gentleman, 7-2
7th) So Royal, 5-1
Mahoning Valley (2nd) Unbridled Cat, 8-1
(7th) Afleet Tee, 8-1
Mountaineer (1st) Denali Holy Bull, 8-1
(2nd) Monba Number Five, 5-1
Parx Racing (3rd) Thump, 10-1
(8th) Oration, 6-1
Penn National (3rd) Alexandra's Mist, 5-1
(6th) Prospector Alley, 8-1
Remington Park (4th) Stanza, 6-1
(6th) One Last Knight, 3-1
Retama Park (1st) Megasize, 3-1
(8th) Get Loud, 8-1
Santa Anita (1st) Harbour Master, 6-1
(3rd) Wild at Heart, 10-1
Turf Paradise (5th) Yet Another Nate, 3-1
(7th) The Gold Monkey, 7-2
Woodbine (3rd) Autumn Song, 10-1
(5th) Beareagle, 3-1
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (1st) Cause for Surprise, 4-1
(9th) Verdant Pastures, 3-1
Charles Town (4th) Bird Humor, 10-1
(6th) Furrfield Miss, 9-2
Churchill Downs (4th) Finley'sluckycharm, 3-1
(10th) Dame Wicked, 5-1
Delta Downs (1st) Branded Saint, 6-1
(9th) Win Lion Win, 8-1
Finger Lakes (6th) Starofthemountain, 8-1
(7th) Watergate, 6-1
Golden Gate Fields (6th) Moscato Girl, 7-2
(8th) He's Pepper, 9-2
Gulfstream Park West (1st) Cat Tree, 6-1
(7th) Extreme Justice, 4-1
Hawthorne (8th) Briar Hill Baron, 7-2
(9th) Divine Delivery, 6-1
Laurel Park (3rd) A True Gentleman, 7-2
7th) So Royal, 5-1
Mahoning Valley (2nd) Unbridled Cat, 8-1
(7th) Afleet Tee, 8-1
Mountaineer (1st) Denali Holy Bull, 8-1
(2nd) Monba Number Five, 5-1
Parx Racing (3rd) Thump, 10-1
(8th) Oration, 6-1
Penn National (3rd) Alexandra's Mist, 5-1
(6th) Prospector Alley, 8-1
Remington Park (4th) Stanza, 6-1
(6th) One Last Knight, 3-1
Retama Park (1st) Megasize, 3-1
(8th) Get Loud, 8-1
Santa Anita (1st) Harbour Master, 6-1
(3rd) Wild at Heart, 10-1
Turf Paradise (5th) Yet Another Nate, 3-1
(7th) The Gold Monkey, 7-2
Woodbine (3rd) Autumn Song, 10-1
(5th) Beareagle, 3-1
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 4:07 PM EASTERN POST
The Tempted Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE
#1 CURSOR
#4 MISS SKY WARRIOR
#5 BERNED
#2 SKY GESTURE
For your information folks ... the Tempted Stakes is named for Mrs. Philip du Pont's runner who was voted top handicap mare in 1959. Bred by the Christiana Stables, Tempted won the Ladies Handicap at Aqueduct while carrying 128 pounds and establishing what was then a track and American record for 1 5/16 miles of 2:09. Here in the 41st running of "The Tempted," #1 CURSOR has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of her two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her last start. She's a daughter of
Quality Road whose progeny have hit the board in 47% of more than 1,200 combined lifetime starts to date. #4 MISS SKY WARRIOR, the morning line favorite, has produced "POWER RUNS" in both of her two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her respective maiden in her last start.
RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 4:07 PM EASTERN POST
The Tempted Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE
#1 CURSOR
#4 MISS SKY WARRIOR
#5 BERNED
#2 SKY GESTURE
For your information folks ... the Tempted Stakes is named for Mrs. Philip du Pont's runner who was voted top handicap mare in 1959. Bred by the Christiana Stables, Tempted won the Ladies Handicap at Aqueduct while carrying 128 pounds and establishing what was then a track and American record for 1 5/16 miles of 2:09. Here in the 41st running of "The Tempted," #1 CURSOR has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of her two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her last start. She's a daughter of
Quality Road whose progeny have hit the board in 47% of more than 1,200 combined lifetime starts to date. #4 MISS SKY WARRIOR, the morning line favorite, has produced "POWER RUNS" in both of her two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her respective maiden in her last start.
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Santa Anita Park
RACE #2 - SANTA ANITA PARK - 10:50 AM PACIFIC POST
The Golden State Juvenile Stakes
7.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE
#4 CALIFORNIA DIAMOND
#2 SIZZLIN SQUARE
#3 CALIFORNIA CLONE
#7 RINSE AND REPEAT
#4 CALIFORNIA DIAMOND takes a class drop (-4), is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this stakes field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his last five outings, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Kent Desormeaux and Trainer Peter Miller send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 62% of their entries saddled as a team to date, winning at an impressive 34% clip! #2 SIZZLIN SQUARE has hit the board in four of his last five "adventures," winning three times, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start.
RACE #2 - SANTA ANITA PARK - 10:50 AM PACIFIC POST
The Golden State Juvenile Stakes
7.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE
#4 CALIFORNIA DIAMOND
#2 SIZZLIN SQUARE
#3 CALIFORNIA CLONE
#7 RINSE AND REPEAT
#4 CALIFORNIA DIAMOND takes a class drop (-4), is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this stakes field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his last five outings, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Kent Desormeaux and Trainer Peter Miller send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 62% of their entries saddled as a team to date, winning at an impressive 34% clip! #2 SIZZLIN SQUARE has hit the board in four of his last five "adventures," winning three times, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start.
Meadowlands: Saturday 11/5 Analysis
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 25 - 53 / $109.60 (+$3.60)
BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $4.80 (-3.20)
Best Bet: WALNER (2nd)
Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (5th)
Race 1
(5) FEARLESS LEADER N made a nice move from the back to pick up a win in his U.S. debut at Freehold. While this is a slight step up, none of tonight’s competition is particularly sharp. (3) CARD SHOCK has a string of outside posts on his PP lines. He finally gets a nice starting spot and will have no excuses. (1) STIMULUS PLAN only has four career wins but a good portion of them have come at The Meadowlands.
Race 2
The only thing (9) WALNER has to fear is Walner himself. If he doesn’t make a mistake, he wins. (1) NEW JERSEY VIKING showed what he can do with a strong mile in last week’s Kindergarten division. I’m all in on this exacta and hoping for $7-8. (3) INTERNATIONAL MONI & (2) SHAKE IT OFF LINDY are both formidable for trainer Frank Antonacci, but I like #1 better underneath.
Race 3
(9) HUNCHIE looks abysmal on paper but has been facing slightly better company. Veteran returns to the Meadowlands tonight where he has gone some of his better miles this year and adds Tetrick. I’m inclined to roll the dice at a price in a field where none of the horses look enticing. (5) EVERY INTENTION got the call from Gingras over three others. (6) OUR JERRY LEE N spent plenty of time on the rim through hot fractions last week but rallied OK in his previous start.
Race 4
(1) AIR STRIKE tried to go down the road but got nipped at the wire by (8) CHIP WALTHER. That was this colt’s first start in two months and some minor improvement seems very possible. The latter has been on a roll with three straight wins. He rates as the favorite but far from unbeatable. (7) MAC’S JACKPOT has held his own this year and finished a close third behind the top pair last time.
Race 5
(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND has 13 wins the last few years at The Meadowlands and took care of business in his last two appearances at this level. Don’t hold that slow qualifying time last week against him. The winds were brutal and the track was very slow. (3) ALEXIE MATTOSIE picked up his game last week and should offer some value with David Miller picking off. (2) FAN OF TERROR could show speed in this spot and have a decent chance at an exotic position at least. (6) INSPIRATION VIEW was a bit better in the stretch with Lasix added last time.
Race 6
(1) SUNSHINE DELIGHT comes off a really nice Breeders Crown effort where she showed early speed and grinded nicely on the rim first-over. (3) HILLARMBRO was solid all year until last week; should rebound. (9) OVERDRAFT VOLO has been racing well and shouldn’t be hurt by the addition of David Miller in the bike.
Race 7
(8) IN THE ARSENAL came up with a strong effort last week and might finally be ready to step up after a rather disappointing 4-year-old campaign. (5) BETTOR ROCK ON N ships in off a no-shot mile from post seven at Yonkers and shows a winning mile in 1:50 here this year. (7) SOHO LENNON A was facing some top competition at Yonkers and does add Gingras to the team.
Race 8
I’ve changed my mind five times in this Kindergarten Final but I know playing against the heavy favorite makes sense. Ultimately I’m landing on (4) NO CHASER, who was just a steady fourth last time versus many in here, but does show a 1:51 3/5 win on her record at the Red Mile. I can see her either sitting the pocket behind the favored (6) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE or perhaps picking up live cover from one of the inside horses. Someomensomewhere just won the Breeders Crown and deserves plenty of respect but I’m not necessarily convinced she is going to warrant the likely 3-5 off-time price. (1) CAVIART ALLY flew home last week which probably means an underlay price tonight. She also has just one win and five second in 11 career starts. (3) GURL BAND K has won three straight and must be considered.
Race 9
(9) SOUTHWIND INDY gets some serious class relief for a barn that has started the meet hot. (3) TRUE BLUE HALL wasn’t going anywhere from outside posts in his last two starts. He seems to be in a decent spot but has missed 21 days; mixed feelings. (8) SCREAMAN SEAMAN A raced OK in his first start for new trainer Nick Surick and does get to drop off that mile. (6) GUANTANAMO BAY has plenty of early speed and Gingras hops in the bike now.
Race 10
(4) CITY PIE almost wired the field as the favorite last time and should offer decent value with Zeron picking off to (5) ELWELL, who gets class relief as he ships in to The Meadowlands. (8) MATTAMERICAN was used last time and held well to lose by only a few lengths.
Race 11
(8) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP appears to be as fast as any in this race and is certainly eligible to improve with Tetrick jumping in the bike for new trainer Valeriya Medik. (3) EVER AGAIN now has two sub 1:52 wins in the bank in his last four starts; respect. (7) SPICEBOMB has proven to be a strong closer and was placed on the engine last time; got nailed.
Race 12
(1) UNCLE LILE A lacked a big kick versus a tough group in his stateside debut. He gets a new driver and faces weaker competition this time around. (3) MY SPIRIT SOARS hasn’t done a thing in 2016 but does show a 1:49 3/5 win last year. It might be worth seeing how Ashley’s Husband and Polak A (Race 7 at Yonkers Saturday) perform before playing this guy. (8) TWINCREEKS JESSE seems like a worthwhile horse to play underneath.
Race 13
(1) BIG JER makes his second start off the bench, drops down and faces an awful field; winner by default. (9) SHOW ME UP has been stuck in outside posts on the half-mile track at Saratoga. He draws poorly again but at least Tetrick joins the equation. (7) LEGENDS LUCK fits nicely here and should get a good piece of the exotics. If you are playing the Super or Jackpot Hi-5, I’d advise using ALL for fourth and/or fifth.
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 25 - 53 / $109.60 (+$3.60)
BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $4.80 (-3.20)
Best Bet: WALNER (2nd)
Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (5th)
Race 1
(5) FEARLESS LEADER N made a nice move from the back to pick up a win in his U.S. debut at Freehold. While this is a slight step up, none of tonight’s competition is particularly sharp. (3) CARD SHOCK has a string of outside posts on his PP lines. He finally gets a nice starting spot and will have no excuses. (1) STIMULUS PLAN only has four career wins but a good portion of them have come at The Meadowlands.
Race 2
The only thing (9) WALNER has to fear is Walner himself. If he doesn’t make a mistake, he wins. (1) NEW JERSEY VIKING showed what he can do with a strong mile in last week’s Kindergarten division. I’m all in on this exacta and hoping for $7-8. (3) INTERNATIONAL MONI & (2) SHAKE IT OFF LINDY are both formidable for trainer Frank Antonacci, but I like #1 better underneath.
Race 3
(9) HUNCHIE looks abysmal on paper but has been facing slightly better company. Veteran returns to the Meadowlands tonight where he has gone some of his better miles this year and adds Tetrick. I’m inclined to roll the dice at a price in a field where none of the horses look enticing. (5) EVERY INTENTION got the call from Gingras over three others. (6) OUR JERRY LEE N spent plenty of time on the rim through hot fractions last week but rallied OK in his previous start.
Race 4
(1) AIR STRIKE tried to go down the road but got nipped at the wire by (8) CHIP WALTHER. That was this colt’s first start in two months and some minor improvement seems very possible. The latter has been on a roll with three straight wins. He rates as the favorite but far from unbeatable. (7) MAC’S JACKPOT has held his own this year and finished a close third behind the top pair last time.
Race 5
(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND has 13 wins the last few years at The Meadowlands and took care of business in his last two appearances at this level. Don’t hold that slow qualifying time last week against him. The winds were brutal and the track was very slow. (3) ALEXIE MATTOSIE picked up his game last week and should offer some value with David Miller picking off. (2) FAN OF TERROR could show speed in this spot and have a decent chance at an exotic position at least. (6) INSPIRATION VIEW was a bit better in the stretch with Lasix added last time.
Race 6
(1) SUNSHINE DELIGHT comes off a really nice Breeders Crown effort where she showed early speed and grinded nicely on the rim first-over. (3) HILLARMBRO was solid all year until last week; should rebound. (9) OVERDRAFT VOLO has been racing well and shouldn’t be hurt by the addition of David Miller in the bike.
Race 7
(8) IN THE ARSENAL came up with a strong effort last week and might finally be ready to step up after a rather disappointing 4-year-old campaign. (5) BETTOR ROCK ON N ships in off a no-shot mile from post seven at Yonkers and shows a winning mile in 1:50 here this year. (7) SOHO LENNON A was facing some top competition at Yonkers and does add Gingras to the team.
Race 8
I’ve changed my mind five times in this Kindergarten Final but I know playing against the heavy favorite makes sense. Ultimately I’m landing on (4) NO CHASER, who was just a steady fourth last time versus many in here, but does show a 1:51 3/5 win on her record at the Red Mile. I can see her either sitting the pocket behind the favored (6) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE or perhaps picking up live cover from one of the inside horses. Someomensomewhere just won the Breeders Crown and deserves plenty of respect but I’m not necessarily convinced she is going to warrant the likely 3-5 off-time price. (1) CAVIART ALLY flew home last week which probably means an underlay price tonight. She also has just one win and five second in 11 career starts. (3) GURL BAND K has won three straight and must be considered.
Race 9
(9) SOUTHWIND INDY gets some serious class relief for a barn that has started the meet hot. (3) TRUE BLUE HALL wasn’t going anywhere from outside posts in his last two starts. He seems to be in a decent spot but has missed 21 days; mixed feelings. (8) SCREAMAN SEAMAN A raced OK in his first start for new trainer Nick Surick and does get to drop off that mile. (6) GUANTANAMO BAY has plenty of early speed and Gingras hops in the bike now.
Race 10
(4) CITY PIE almost wired the field as the favorite last time and should offer decent value with Zeron picking off to (5) ELWELL, who gets class relief as he ships in to The Meadowlands. (8) MATTAMERICAN was used last time and held well to lose by only a few lengths.
Race 11
(8) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP appears to be as fast as any in this race and is certainly eligible to improve with Tetrick jumping in the bike for new trainer Valeriya Medik. (3) EVER AGAIN now has two sub 1:52 wins in the bank in his last four starts; respect. (7) SPICEBOMB has proven to be a strong closer and was placed on the engine last time; got nailed.
Race 12
(1) UNCLE LILE A lacked a big kick versus a tough group in his stateside debut. He gets a new driver and faces weaker competition this time around. (3) MY SPIRIT SOARS hasn’t done a thing in 2016 but does show a 1:49 3/5 win last year. It might be worth seeing how Ashley’s Husband and Polak A (Race 7 at Yonkers Saturday) perform before playing this guy. (8) TWINCREEKS JESSE seems like a worthwhile horse to play underneath.
Race 13
(1) BIG JER makes his second start off the bench, drops down and faces an awful field; winner by default. (9) SHOW ME UP has been stuck in outside posts on the half-mile track at Saratoga. He draws poorly again but at least Tetrick joins the equation. (7) LEGENDS LUCK fits nicely here and should get a good piece of the exotics. If you are playing the Super or Jackpot Hi-5, I’d advise using ALL for fourth and/or fifth.
Yonkers: Saturday 11/5 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 391 - 1122 / $2,133.90
BEST BETS: 51 - 91 / $169.10
Best Bet: FREESPIN N (1st)
Spot Play: KEYSTONE VELOCITY (8th)
Race 1
(1) FREESPIN N returns locally off a win out of town and the Bamond trainee has been competitive with better here; he will likely be controlling the action from this spot. (3) ROLAND N ROCK has the speed to be in play early and sit the garden trip. (4) NESH CRUISER ships in from Saratoga for sharp connections and he can be considered for a share at a price.
Race 2
(1) AVENTURE has raced well in all recent efforts, draws best and driver Ciuffetelli will try to take these coast to coast. (3) THE FRANCHISE fits well with these and has one of the more accomplished amateur drivers in the sulky. (2) LADYS BIG STORMONT has gone wire-to-wire in his last two amateur events and he'll be looking to protect close up early position.
Race 3
(3) GAELIC AND GARLIC hasn't won locally in some time but he appears overdue and faces nothing special in here. (1) ON THE PODIUM had little to offer last week in the added-distance event but the veteran went wire-to-wire versus cheaper in his two prior starts. (2) LAUDERDALE should be close up throughout and could threaten late with a ground-saving trip.
Race 4
(1) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT gets needed post relief in his local return for Allard and he was a winner when last at this level. (6) WING FLASH was solid in her local debut, her first start for the Julie Miller barn and Sears sticks with her despite facing better. (7) GEORGINA CORNER draws poorly but she does get Bartlett back in the bike.
Race 5
(1) PIERCEWAVE HANOVER should get the job done from this spot assuming he minds his manners. (3) XTATIC HANOVER has been razor-sharp for the Ruiz barn and was a solid second last week. (4) ZORGWIJK NOVA gets post relief in her second start after being reclaimed by Banca and Bartlett is back driving; big threat.
Race 6
(4) ROCK ON MOE has been ultra-consistent this season and just went over the $100K mark again; his early speed can set up a good trip for this veteran. (2) CLEAR VISION is still a solid high-conditioned horse from Burke who's been very sharp in his last few. (1) MCARDLES LIGHTNING stopped badly last out but clearly he's better than that; Bartlett drives tonight.
Race 7
(4) POLAK A qualified very nicely last week after that debacle the start prior; Russo trainee is a proven commodity at this level. (1) RAMPAGE JACKSON is the claim of the year, plucked for $12,500 and now a legit threat in the winners-over. His speed and the rail slot makes him a must-use. (3) AMERICANPRIMETIME was overmatched in the Breeders Crown last week; four back he tied the track record.
Race 8
(5) KEYSTONE VELOCITY has come up just shy in his last two; it's time for the recent high-priced Allard purchase to break through. (4) MACH IT SO picked up a check in last week’s Wiggle It/Miki showdown and clearly he's in with a big chance from this spot. (8) BIT OF A LEGEND N rated it kindly on the front end last week but now he's banished to the eight hole; how does he get involved?
Race 9
(7) WIND OF THE NORTH raced well in his two local starts but it appeared he could have had a touch more to offer; I'm giving him one more chance. (6) LUMINOSITY should be forwardly placed off the gate from this spot. (4) TORNADO TIM seems capable and will be a late threat with a live trip.
Race 10
(2) WINDS OF CHANGE gets needed class relief and the Takter trainee should take care of business in the finale. (5) CAVIART LUCA gets tested for class but has been razor-sharp since moving to the Burke barn. (1) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH beat one notch lesser and can threaten here with a stalking trip.
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 391 - 1122 / $2,133.90
BEST BETS: 51 - 91 / $169.10
Best Bet: FREESPIN N (1st)
Spot Play: KEYSTONE VELOCITY (8th)
Race 1
(1) FREESPIN N returns locally off a win out of town and the Bamond trainee has been competitive with better here; he will likely be controlling the action from this spot. (3) ROLAND N ROCK has the speed to be in play early and sit the garden trip. (4) NESH CRUISER ships in from Saratoga for sharp connections and he can be considered for a share at a price.
Race 2
(1) AVENTURE has raced well in all recent efforts, draws best and driver Ciuffetelli will try to take these coast to coast. (3) THE FRANCHISE fits well with these and has one of the more accomplished amateur drivers in the sulky. (2) LADYS BIG STORMONT has gone wire-to-wire in his last two amateur events and he'll be looking to protect close up early position.
Race 3
(3) GAELIC AND GARLIC hasn't won locally in some time but he appears overdue and faces nothing special in here. (1) ON THE PODIUM had little to offer last week in the added-distance event but the veteran went wire-to-wire versus cheaper in his two prior starts. (2) LAUDERDALE should be close up throughout and could threaten late with a ground-saving trip.
Race 4
(1) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT gets needed post relief in his local return for Allard and he was a winner when last at this level. (6) WING FLASH was solid in her local debut, her first start for the Julie Miller barn and Sears sticks with her despite facing better. (7) GEORGINA CORNER draws poorly but she does get Bartlett back in the bike.
Race 5
(1) PIERCEWAVE HANOVER should get the job done from this spot assuming he minds his manners. (3) XTATIC HANOVER has been razor-sharp for the Ruiz barn and was a solid second last week. (4) ZORGWIJK NOVA gets post relief in her second start after being reclaimed by Banca and Bartlett is back driving; big threat.
Race 6
(4) ROCK ON MOE has been ultra-consistent this season and just went over the $100K mark again; his early speed can set up a good trip for this veteran. (2) CLEAR VISION is still a solid high-conditioned horse from Burke who's been very sharp in his last few. (1) MCARDLES LIGHTNING stopped badly last out but clearly he's better than that; Bartlett drives tonight.
Race 7
(4) POLAK A qualified very nicely last week after that debacle the start prior; Russo trainee is a proven commodity at this level. (1) RAMPAGE JACKSON is the claim of the year, plucked for $12,500 and now a legit threat in the winners-over. His speed and the rail slot makes him a must-use. (3) AMERICANPRIMETIME was overmatched in the Breeders Crown last week; four back he tied the track record.
Race 8
(5) KEYSTONE VELOCITY has come up just shy in his last two; it's time for the recent high-priced Allard purchase to break through. (4) MACH IT SO picked up a check in last week’s Wiggle It/Miki showdown and clearly he's in with a big chance from this spot. (8) BIT OF A LEGEND N rated it kindly on the front end last week but now he's banished to the eight hole; how does he get involved?
Race 9
(7) WIND OF THE NORTH raced well in his two local starts but it appeared he could have had a touch more to offer; I'm giving him one more chance. (6) LUMINOSITY should be forwardly placed off the gate from this spot. (4) TORNADO TIM seems capable and will be a late threat with a live trip.
Race 10
(2) WINDS OF CHANGE gets needed class relief and the Takter trainee should take care of business in the finale. (5) CAVIART LUCA gets tested for class but has been razor-sharp since moving to the Burke barn. (1) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH beat one notch lesser and can threaten here with a stalking trip.
