Horse Racing 12-6-16

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

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Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$15000 - FILLIES/MARES 5 YEAR OLDS & UNDER WINNERS OVER $60,000 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 3 TERROR AT NIGHT 7/2
# 4 ARTS JEM 7/2
# 2 GIRLOFYOURDREAMS 10/1

TERROR AT NIGHT has a very nice shot to take this race. Many harness players know speed is is key. This standardbred has credentials with a 90 avg stat. Quite possibly the class of the group of horses with an average rating of 86. A nice choice. Could best this group of animals, just look at the speed rating - 86 - from her most recent affair. ARTS JEM - Don't count out this solid standardbred, especially with King as the trainer. In the money percentage is strong. Could very well provide us a win based on good recent speed figs - earning an avg of 87. GIRLOFYOURDREAMS - With one of the finest drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this mare out of the contest. A formidable class horse can't be missed. With an average class rating of 86 all signs point here for the winner.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 3:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$4200 - $7500 CLAIMING/ALLOWANCES B ALDRICH JR 6 OVER 4 J DEVAUX 7 OVER 1
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 SEMALU EXPRESS 6/1
# 4 MUSCLE BEACHBOY 7/2
# 6 GIDDYALLYOUGOT 5/2

SEMALU EXPRESS is the strongest bet in this outing. May provide us a ultimate prize based on really strong recent TrackMaster SRs - earning an avg of 82. Seems to have a very good class edge based on the competitors he has raced against. The group noted a huge outing out of this race horse last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to dominate. MUSCLE BEACHBOY - Could be considered this time if only for the very nice TrackMaster SR recorded in the most recent race. Looks like a strong choice in this field of horses and his above average winning percentage says he has the desire to end up in the winner's circle today. GIDDYALLYOUGOT - Can't pass over based on speed figs which have been exemplary (84 avg) lately. Is a very compelling win contender given the 83 speed rating from his most recent affair.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8700 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 8 AMELIA BAY 7/2

# 2 PERFECT QUESTION 9/2

# 1 WARREN'S CRACKER 4/1

I favor AMELIA BAY here. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of quite good win percentage - 23 percent - at this distance & surface. This filly has posted some nice finish positions in her last few efforts. Recorded a quite good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. PERFECT QUESTION - Is worth careful consideration and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figs (67 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Ran a strong last race. WARREN'S CRACKER - Has posted strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of solid win percentage - 21 percent - at this distance & surface.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $51000 Class Rating: 91

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 DISCO ROSE 4/1

# 4 MACROECONOMICS 5/1

# 7 BRAZILIAN SYMPHONY 9/2

My selection here is DISCO ROSE. Has to be considered in this event if only for the formidable speed rating posted in the last contest. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 91, has one of the best class advantages in this group. Has very good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet for this race. MACROECONOMICS - Has performed well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 68 avg Equibase Speed Fig. Over time, this handler has a competitive ROI at this distance/surface. BRAZILIAN SYMPHONY - Garnered a respectable speed figure last time out. Has performed well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 70 avg Equibase Speed Figure.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#8 REAL NICE (ML=3/1)


REAL NICE - Diodoro has a very great win pct in grass sprints. This filly should be conditioned properly and ready to go. Ramgeet and Diodoro perform well when they unite. Tough to beat a win pct of 32. Ranked at the very top in EPS (earnings per start). Another sign that this horse has the class to win. The handler is switching this pony to the grass for a reason. Let's take a shot on this fine animal. This filly is in nice physical condition. Ended up second on November 6th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FORESTSTONE (ML=2/1), #9 LADY PILOT (ML=9/2), #3 MARITALPRESRVATION (ML=5/1),

FORESTSTONE - I find it hard to wager on any entrant in a short distance race at 2/1 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last couple of months. LADY PILOT - The Brain tells me to stay away from horses in short distance affairs that haven't hit the board in short distance races recently. MARITALPRESRVATION - No picnic to wager on any pony in a sprint clash if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - REAL NICE - Watch out for this thoroughbred. My data would suggest that she will sit off the pace for most of the race, then with a slight urging from Ramgeet, will take the lead coming home.
*
*
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STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #8 REAL NICE to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:10pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#3 ALUMNI (ML=7/2)
#2 GOLDEN COUNTY (ML=8/1)


ALUMNI - Utilizing this rider/handler combination is a smart choice. To play a horse off drills, you have to know when to tell if a horse is fit. The fact that this gelding worked recently at longer distance is a positive angle. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a solid outing is a good sign. GOLDEN COUNTY - Could be a potential overlay in this event at odds of 8/1. Finished fifth in last race at Zia Park but was close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CHASING THE HEAT (ML=2/1), #1 PRAKSIS (ML=5/2), #4 EDGE FORWARD (ML=6/1),

CHASING THE HEAT - This morning-line choice ran on Oct 17th and hasn't had a work after that. PRAKSIS - Last ran on November 13th at Zia Park, finishing fifth. Not likely to improve off of that try in today's race. Not likely that the speed fig he notched on Nov 13th will be enough in this clash. EDGE FORWARD - Can't bet on this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 4 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance event of late. Hard to bet on a runner that lays up for a long time then doesn't end up on the board off the very long layoff.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 ALUMNI is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip
 
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Yonkers: Tuesday 12/6 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 290 - 1221 / $1,869.60

BEST BETS: 32 - 114 / $151.10

Best Bet: MATZA MAN (10th)

Spot Play: FIJI (5th)


Race 1

(7) NIPPY W HANOVER is clearly better than his recent outing and this mare should get back into the winning groove. (1) JOKES JET has fine speed and she could take them all the way; maybe. (6) ARABELLA J closed strongly to lose glory by a neck; watch out.

Race 2

(2) BEST TURBO was sharp in victory last time out and now this trotting filly moves inside; gets the call for the repeat. (5) IM LOOKING AT YOU showed good early trot last time around and could have a say in the outcome. (4) GIDS PASSION moves back to a flat mile and could make some noise against these.

Race 3

(6) CREDEVIE was a very game second at Philly in his last trip to the post and now he moves back to Yonkers and the gelding does have good speed; threat at his best. (4) MANHATTAN AS has wheeled off two straight victories; dangerous again. (1) WANNA MAKE MONEY retains the fence and rallied for the placing in his latest; not out of this.

Race 4

(5) FRATERNITY should be the speed of the speed and this gelding has every right to make today a winning one down the road. (2) MUSTANG MACH N was sent down the road but ran out of gas to get nailed by (1) ANNUITY. The latter was set down in the pocket en route for his second straight score; beware again.

Race 5

(1) FIJI is back to a mile where he has done his best running; can take this at his best. (7) BLOWNOUTOFTHEWATER seems to be a better spot for this trotter to contend with these; possible. (2) DIAL A CHICK could land a share of the purse.

Race 6

(4) GLOBAL REVOLUTION had dead aim on the leaders at the 3/4 pole and drew away in the stretch for the victory last out; repeat effort is not out of the question. (6) SOUTHWIND VENUS She has scored in her last two tires and must be considered in the exotic slots. (2) WHAT A PEACH made a tough break at the start in his last trip, but has hit the board 10 of 20 starts this year; watch out.

Race 7

(5) BETTORSLUCKYSTREAK fits well in this event and if he gets the favorable trip, the rest will have to settle for minor awards. (2) PEMBROKE WILDCAT gets post relief and that should help his cause; possible. (4) ROOSTER RABBIT moves down the ladder in hope that he can return to the winner's circle; possible.

Race 8

(2) MAINLAND KEY N Very sharp gelding in his last three starts and should get back to his winning ways against this group. (3) NATURAL LEDA raced evenly for fourth money last out; could be right in the mix. (1) SIGN TO INVERELL A put in a mild rally for the show spot last out and now draws the rail; not out of this.

Race 9

(3) YO CHEYENNE ROCKY showed signs of life in his last try and he catches a weak group; worth a closer look. (7) PASS THEM BY N was on the lead most of the way but was nailed for win honors in his most recent outing; main danger. (1) BEACHY DREAM should fare much better from the fence and good to see Bartlett at the controls.

Race 10

(5) MATZA MAN was third best at the marathon distance last out and now this trotter moves back to his preferred distance; the pick. (6) MADMAN HALL is knocking at the door based on his last three seconds in a row; threat. (3) OMAHA SET HUT moves to the 3-hole and fits well in here; don't overlook.

Race 11

(3) V I P BAYAMA raced evenly last time out and this pacing gelding has tactical speed. Has every right to pick them up and lay them down. (1) UPFRONT COUNTRYBOY was late on the scene to nail down the place spot recently; main danger. (4) FRANCOHARRINGTON N was sent down the road but was caught at the wire for win honors recently.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Mahoning Valley (1st) Artavia, 7-2
(4th) Perfect Question, 9-2


Parx Racing (3rd) North Ocean, 7-2
(9th) Kodiak Syd, 5-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Guyfromtheskyfive, 9-2
(8th) Car Creek, 8-1
 

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