Horse Racing 12-26-16

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Post: 2:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$4250 - CLAIMING $6,500. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ALSO ELIGIBLE: RED MIST
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 3 GENESEE 2/1
# 4 K SLATER 5/1
# 2 DALI ON UP 6/1

GENESEE is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the handicapping team. Has competitive TrackMaster Speed Ratings and more than likely has to be thought of for a bet in this contest. This standardbred has shown us some prior ability, just look at the 85 average class stat. Should play well for this one. Recorded a 80 speed rating last out. A duplicate contest here should get the win in here. K SLATER - This entrant could get the victory here beginning from the Rideau Carleton 4 hole. Pace numbers fit the bias well here at Rideau Carleton, look for this one to get the win. DALI ON UP - With a tremendous driver, who has won at a respectable 20 percent rate this last month, this has to be one of the best picks. Nice shot in this race to get the victory with first time Lasix.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 4:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$14000 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $20,000 TO $25,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 LONEWOLF CURRIER 7/2
# 7 YORK SEELSTER 2/1
# 5 J JS DELIVERY 3/1

LONEWOLF CURRIER will have you running to the cashier's window for this one. Hands down the best hole at Woodbine is the 6. The win clip is excellent. Lining up in the 6 slot at Woodbine adds some hidden advantage as this hole has a better than expected ROI. YORK SEELSTER - Worth a close look here given the numbers in the TrackMaster speed fig department alone. Is a huge choice given the 92 speed rating from his most recent race. J JS DELIVERY - The panel of smart guys has McNair on its list of drivers who are blazing hot recently. Last 30 days win percent is stellar. The 89 average class statistic may give this gelding a distinct edge in the group.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 93

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 LA MAQUINA GRIS 8/1

# 8 DADDY'S PLACER 7/2

# 9 WHOLE LOTTA LUCK 6/1

My selection in this competition is LA MAQUINA GRIS especially at such a decent 8/1. He has very good class ratings, averaging 87, and has to be given a shot in this event. DADDY'S PLACER - Amoss has a sharp win percent with horses running in dirt route races. Some competitive figures have been posted by this trainer's entrants racing at this distance and surface. WHOLE LOTTA LUCK - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this animal a solid contender. Might see a different pony here with the blinkers change.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #8 - Post: 3:31pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $300,000 Class Rating: 118 Malibu S. (Grade 1)

Rating:

#5 JAZZY TIMES (ML=8/1)
#4 TEN BLESSINGS (ML=3/1)
#7 SHARP AZTECA (ML=3/1)
#10 HORSE GREEDY (ML=30/1)
#9 AWESOME BANNER (ML=8/1)


JAZZY TIMES - The morning line odds on this colt are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Bob Baffert. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This colt is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Baffert seems to have this colt primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is wonderful. TEN BLESSINGS - This jock/handler duo has been producing a high win percent, right around 30. Colt shipped to this track and won; now goes for two in a row. Recent speed figures show solid pattern of improvement. SHARP AZTECA - This one likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. That 121 fig this colt registered in his last affair tells me he's a big time player in today's event. HORSE GREEDY - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer duo. PP data show this horse with 3 improving speed figures. Theriot should be on a horse ready to win today. AWESOME BANNER - A colt like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. Looks like this thoroughbred really likes the distance. No reason to believe he cannot add another 'W' to the victory column in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MIND YOUR BISCUITS (ML=5/2), #8 MOR SPIRIT (ML=6/1),

MIND YOUR BISCUITS - This colt almost certainly won't be very close at the wire. MOR SPIRIT - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance races in order to wager on him. This horse recorded a speed figure in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TEN BLESSINGS - The TM Power Rating tells me that this race horse looks good versus the rest of this field. I'm betting.
*
*
STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 JAZZY TIMES to win at post-time odds of 9/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,10] Box [5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[4,5] with [4,5,7] with [4,5,7,9,10] with [4,5,7,9,10] Total Cost: $24
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 3:41pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $51,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#10 STREET HEAT (ML=8/1)
#7 MCMULLEN COUNTY (ML=6/1)
#5 WORD (ML=12/1)


STREET HEAT - Has discovered a good spot in today's event. MCMULLEN COUNTY - My experienced judgement tells me to watch out for this animal in this affair WORD - Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the 1st attempt on December 3rd. Should be in touch with the horse even better in today's contest. The rider and trainer combination have a positive ROI when they team up. This colt is in fine condition, having run a good race on Dec 3rd, finishing first. Is ranked at the top in (EPS) earnings per start. A strong performance right here in this race will boost the lifetime earnings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A PHARAOH'S CITY (ML=5/2), #1 GIANT TRICK (ML=5/2), #3 BELIEVE IN LUCK (ML=9/2),

PHARAOH'S CITY - Could be tough for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list. GIANT TRICK - This chalk horse ran on Nov 12th and hasn't had a drill since. BELIEVE IN LUCK - This gelding notched a speed rating in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #10 STREET HEAT to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[5,7,10] with [5,7,10] with [3,5,7,8,10] with [3,5,7,8,10] Total Cost: $36
 
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Woodbine Harness: Monday 12/26 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,2,9,10/1,6,9/5,9,10/4,5/3,8,10 = $43.20

EARLY PICK 4: 4,5/3,8,10/4,5,8,9/2,3 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,6/3,4,10/3,5/5,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 61 - 238 / $367.30 BEST BETS: 9 - 23 / $30.30

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 22 / $28.80

Best Bet: YORK SEELSTER (11th)

Spot Play: DRAGON STRIKES (5th)


Race 1

(9) NOBETTERPLACETOBE raced out of his skin last week to take a new life's mark. He stands a good chance of clearing before the 1/4 here, too, which can lead to a repeat win. (10) PUSH BACK couldn't reach a very tough winner last week, but now he drops a level and he should be tough in his third start off the shelf. (2) JENKINS CREEK could trip out here stalking some battling leaders; using. (1) SIERRA MADRE is another who should be passing many of these late to take a share.

Race 2

(6) RESISTANCE FUTILE was too far back last time, but he did pace his own back 1/2 in 54 1/5. He is obviously sharp; all he needs is better positioning to get it done here. (1) UF BETTORS HANOVER should get a beneficial pace scenario here and he may beat a couple to the first turn which will improve his chances; using. (9) WOGGY ROCKS drops in class and he could get sent hard off the gate. He does his best work from on or near the lead. Toss him on Pick 5 tickets. (3) JAKE LOEWEN will be closing late again, but a smaller award is often his ceiling due to his racing style.

Race 3

(5) ODDS ON AMETHYST used a powerful third 1/4 brush to bottom the field out last week. The step up here isn't that great and he doesn't typically hold his form for very long, so the connections will be looking for a big chunk of this purse. (10) APRIL ROSE's chances seem dependent on whether she can clear immediately at the start. Allard has been heating up lately, so she is logical for Pick 5 tickets here. (9) CROWN CLASSIC keeps getting closer despite stepping up in class; using. (3) SECOND SISTER fits this class but she is more likely to take a slice than a win.

Race 4

(4) NEVER BEEN TOLD drops back into a class where he has dominated recently; top call. (5) INCOGNITO brings solid form and a good record north for this Woodbine debut and he looks like the main threat to the choice. (3) LIBRADO HANOVER was hung the mile but still hit the board at Flamboro. He can grab a share here in his third start since shipping north. (2) CUNDALINI always takes a smaller share racing from close range. Expect more of the same here.

Race 5

(8) DRAGON STRIKES was on too much cover last time in a race where the late pace was strong, yet he still managed to gain ground in the lane. He is razor-sharp and only needs a more contested pace, which is quite likely here in this stakes final. (3) BREAKTIME HANOVER is another closer that figures to benefit from an honest pace here. (10) AWESOMENESS is likely the best horse in this series, but, post 10 is no bargain here, obviously. (1) LYONS SANDS was a sharp winner last week in a leg where some of the entrants may have had differing motives. He is unlikely to get the same respect on the lead here.

Race 6

(5) ITS HUW YOU KNOW powered his way to an impressive win last week and he could offer a good price here stepping up facing some class-droppers; slight nod. (4) MARQUIS VOLO is in top form and he has strung several top performances in a row together in the past; using. (8) FEARLESS MAN will take plenty of action on the class drop here and he will no doubt try to go coast-to-coast on the engine. (9) INTIMIDATE figures for a smaller share from this post.

Race 7

(3) WAZZUP WAZZUP raced much better last week in his third start back after missing a month. He fits well here and rates highly. (2) PRINCE CLYDE drops a few classes to the level where he last won which makes him a Pick 4 must-use. (4) FIRM IT UP has been part of some swift fractions in many races down south and he should be prominent here and land a share. (5) THREE OF CLUBS tripped out to beat easier, but he has also beaten better than these in the past.

Race 8

(6) DUNVEGAN DON has been finishing off his miles well and he faces easier here; top call. (5) FIVE BELOW looked much better last week, but he obviously benefitted from a soft opening 1/2. This should be tougher, but he still rates highly. (3) HONOR ABOVE ALL has been racing well despite getting some rough trips. He isn't out of this. (1) BATOUTAHILL is always closing late, but post one likely isn't ideal for here. A minor share is predicted here.

Race 9

(3) P L JASMINE looked like a different filly last week and she should get a great setup for her late charge here. McNair sticks, too; top call. (10) JIMBELINA has been great so far in this series, but she could get stung just enough here in the final to get her beat. (4) HOT SPOT HANOVER projects to get a good trip here and she is another to toss on Pick 4 tickets. (8) MISTY DE VIE will be closing late. She's a good one for the bottom of tris and supers.

Race 10

(3) REEL was a winner if he had a couple of more strides to work with last week. He rates highly here, but may need some luck if his driver elects to stay in again. (5) SIR GALAHAD continues to race well and he should get a good trip here leaving from the centre of the gate. (9) PERFECT VISTA was doomed going first-over after the leader stole a 29 2/5 second 1/4 last week. He fits here and Jamieson may find a live helmet to follow. (7) MACH ON THE BEACH couldn't catch a game leader last week, but he too continues to race well and should take at least a slice here.

Race 11

(7) YORK SEELSTER goes for Allard here off the claim and he looks tough again. Expect another win and another claim. (5) J JS DELIVERY steps back up off a win when claimed, but he could have some confidence now and he could also trip out behind the choice. (2) DALTON DID IT figures to share again off an inside following trip. (6) LONEWOLF CURRIER goes for Moreau off the claim but he will likely be overbet considering the bad habits he has been displaying on the track this winter.

Race 12

(4) ER ZACH ATTACK failed in a first-over bid vs a strong leader last week. He could trip out and take these in his third start following a month break. (10) AVATARTIST went too fast early last week. He could clear quickly again here and if he gets a breather, he will be tough to overhaul. (8) LEAFS AND WINGS should be passing many of these late and the track has been kinder to closers lately. (6) REAL KID seems likely for a slice in here. (1) LOVEDANCINWITHYOU can get a much better trip here. Check out his effort two back from the inside post.
 
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Spot Plays

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Fair Grounds (1st) Fire Lake, 4-1
(2nd) Red Hot Cherry, 8-1


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Opsec, 3-1
(7th) He’s a Pepper, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Kid’s Kid, 7-2
(9th) Papa Zulu, 8-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Lee’s Luck, 7-2
(8th) Northern Honour, 6-1


Laurel (5th) Chickaletta, 4-1
(6th) Curtis, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (5th) Shock Leader, 3-1
(9th) Crimson Comic, 8-1


Parx Racing (1st) Mi Gal Fren, 9-2
(8th) Sister Patricia, 5-1


Santa Anita (3rd) So Conflated, 5-1
(9th) Frank Conversation, 4-1


Turf Paradise (1st) Change of Luck, 4-1
(5th) Hayaku Josan, 5-1
 

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