At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey
There is only one horse that beat Triple Crown winner American Pharoah during his historic campaign last year and he will be in action at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
In case you forgot, Keen Ice pulled off the upset in last summer’s Travers Stakes (G1), upsetting American Pharoah by ¾ of a length at 16-1.
However, since that win the colt has run seven times without finding the winner’s circle. He was trained by Dale Romans last year but was moved to the Todd Pletcher barn after returning from Dubai where he was eighth in the Dubai World Cup (G1).
Off a six-month layoff, he ran third against second level optional claimers, but that did not deter his connections from running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) where he was third but no match for Arrogate and California Chrome.
On Saturday, he goes in the $100,000 Harlan’s Holiday (G3), a 1 1/16 mile test on the main track. If all goes well, Keen Ice will be pointed toward the first running $12 million Pegasus Cup Invitational (G1) on Jan. 28.
“He seems to be in sharp form. The mile and a sixteenth doesn’t seem like his ideal distance, but we want to get him something between now and the Pegasus,” Pletcher said. “We feel sharpening him up is better than waiting to run him on January 28.”
The race is one five stakes on Saturday’s card, three graded. The co-features are the $100,000 Rampart (G3) and $100,000 Sugar Swirl (G3), both for fillies and mares.
I will have my full card report for both Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct available for Saturday.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Clm $30,000B (12:35 ET)
#4 Ascot Girl 9-2
#5 Forever for Always 7-2
#7 Danish Princess 3-1
#3 Murray's Girl 6-1
Analysis: Ascot Girl tracked the early pace while saving ground and did not have enough punch left late in a fifth-place finish last out against $25,000 starter allowance foes at Laurel Park. The winner Marabea came back to win the Claiming Crown Tiara in her next outing on Dec. 3. She is back in for a tag here in a good spot facing non-winners of three or a race in five months.
Forever for Always stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out at this level. The winner Marmalade came back to beat Alw-1 company in her next start on Nov. 19. The mare comes in here in sharp form but does not win very often, just 2 for 30 in her career on turf.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7 / 2,3,4,5,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 7 Alw $50,000s (3:32 ET)
#3 Insum Money 7-2
#9 Gone Jak 6-1
#7 Barry Karafin Bets 3-1
#2 Promete 5-1
Analysis: Insum Money dueled for the early lead and drew off to break his maiden last out in his second career outing, catching slop in a race taken off the turf. The third-place finisher Epic Drama came out of that race to graduate next out for a $50,000 tag thanks to a DQ. Our top pick ran second in his debut at 9-2 behind repeat winner My Friend, who came back to beat $35,000 starter optional claimers in his next outing on Sept. 30. Nicks has picked up three wins at the meeting and is 16% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Gone Jak was a much the best maiden winner in his debut, drawing away late to win by six lengths at 10-1 for a $25,000 tag. The Castillo barn started off this meeting 0 for but won with 6 of his previous 15 starters this year. The colt has seven sibs that re winners including a stakes winner, top earner My Tee Time ($153,415).
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9 / 2,3,6,7,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R5: #9 War Bond 10-1
R6: #10 E Z’s Mistress 12-1
R8: #12 Colormeapegasus 15-1
R9: #10 Street Cash 12-1
R10: #11 Blame Mike 10-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
There is only one horse that beat Triple Crown winner American Pharoah during his historic campaign last year and he will be in action at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
In case you forgot, Keen Ice pulled off the upset in last summer’s Travers Stakes (G1), upsetting American Pharoah by ¾ of a length at 16-1.
However, since that win the colt has run seven times without finding the winner’s circle. He was trained by Dale Romans last year but was moved to the Todd Pletcher barn after returning from Dubai where he was eighth in the Dubai World Cup (G1).
Off a six-month layoff, he ran third against second level optional claimers, but that did not deter his connections from running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) where he was third but no match for Arrogate and California Chrome.
On Saturday, he goes in the $100,000 Harlan’s Holiday (G3), a 1 1/16 mile test on the main track. If all goes well, Keen Ice will be pointed toward the first running $12 million Pegasus Cup Invitational (G1) on Jan. 28.
“He seems to be in sharp form. The mile and a sixteenth doesn’t seem like his ideal distance, but we want to get him something between now and the Pegasus,” Pletcher said. “We feel sharpening him up is better than waiting to run him on January 28.”
The race is one five stakes on Saturday’s card, three graded. The co-features are the $100,000 Rampart (G3) and $100,000 Sugar Swirl (G3), both for fillies and mares.
I will have my full card report for both Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct available for Saturday.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Clm $30,000B (12:35 ET)
#4 Ascot Girl 9-2
#5 Forever for Always 7-2
#7 Danish Princess 3-1
#3 Murray's Girl 6-1
Analysis: Ascot Girl tracked the early pace while saving ground and did not have enough punch left late in a fifth-place finish last out against $25,000 starter allowance foes at Laurel Park. The winner Marabea came back to win the Claiming Crown Tiara in her next outing on Dec. 3. She is back in for a tag here in a good spot facing non-winners of three or a race in five months.
Forever for Always stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out at this level. The winner Marmalade came back to beat Alw-1 company in her next start on Nov. 19. The mare comes in here in sharp form but does not win very often, just 2 for 30 in her career on turf.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7 / 2,3,4,5,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 7 Alw $50,000s (3:32 ET)
#3 Insum Money 7-2
#9 Gone Jak 6-1
#7 Barry Karafin Bets 3-1
#2 Promete 5-1
Analysis: Insum Money dueled for the early lead and drew off to break his maiden last out in his second career outing, catching slop in a race taken off the turf. The third-place finisher Epic Drama came out of that race to graduate next out for a $50,000 tag thanks to a DQ. Our top pick ran second in his debut at 9-2 behind repeat winner My Friend, who came back to beat $35,000 starter optional claimers in his next outing on Sept. 30. Nicks has picked up three wins at the meeting and is 16% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Gone Jak was a much the best maiden winner in his debut, drawing away late to win by six lengths at 10-1 for a $25,000 tag. The Castillo barn started off this meeting 0 for but won with 6 of his previous 15 starters this year. The colt has seven sibs that re winners including a stakes winner, top earner My Tee Time ($153,415).
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9 / 2,3,6,7,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R5: #9 War Bond 10-1
R6: #10 E Z’s Mistress 12-1
R8: #12 Colormeapegasus 15-1
R9: #10 Street Cash 12-1
R10: #11 Blame Mike 10-1
Good luck today!
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$4400 - ALLIANCE SERIES - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $6500.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 5 PANTHEON SEELSTER 5/2
# 4 TWICE AS BRIGHT 2/1
# 3 MICRO FORCE 6/1
We've got a vibe PANTHEON SEELSTER is going to get the victory. This fine animal looks very good considering the high class ratings. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. The knowledge group noted a very compelling outing out of this contender last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to end up in the winner's circle. The 5 position sports an above average win percentage at Flamboro Downs. TWICE AS BRIGHT - This competition could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. Could most likely defeat this pack given the 70 TrackMaster SR earned in his last race. MICRO FORCE - Could provide us a victory based on good recent speed figs - earning an average of 73. Good for a win bet just off the terrific prior class numbers. Have to like this entrant.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$4400 - ALLIANCE SERIES - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $6500.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 5 PANTHEON SEELSTER 5/2
# 4 TWICE AS BRIGHT 2/1
# 3 MICRO FORCE 6/1
We've got a vibe PANTHEON SEELSTER is going to get the victory. This fine animal looks very good considering the high class ratings. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. The knowledge group noted a very compelling outing out of this contender last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to end up in the winner's circle. The 5 position sports an above average win percentage at Flamboro Downs. TWICE AS BRIGHT - This competition could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. Could most likely defeat this pack given the 70 TrackMaster SR earned in his last race. MICRO FORCE - Could provide us a victory based on good recent speed figs - earning an average of 73. Good for a win bet just off the terrific prior class numbers. Have to like this entrant.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Post: 6:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$6400 - COLTS & GELDINGS - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2 EXT PARI-MUTUEL RACE OR $20,000 LIFE SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 6 CINDY'S PARTY BOY 8/5
# 1 WELL LETS SEE 7/5
# 3 SPY IN THE CAMP 10/1
CINDY'S PARTY BOY has a really good shot to take this contest. Have a gut feel this one might steal in here. If performance in the last race is any indication, this harness racer will have a very very nice shot for this one. High last race speed figure. The consortium has Devaux on its list of drivers who are tough as nails recently. Last 30 days win percent is exemplary. WELL LETS SEE - Top notch win rate combined with recent formidable performances. We think he can handle this group. Recent stats for the driver - 21 percent win - make this gelding a clear choice in the group. SPY IN THE CAMP - With a good 66 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Post: 6:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$6400 - COLTS & GELDINGS - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2 EXT PARI-MUTUEL RACE OR $20,000 LIFE SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 6 CINDY'S PARTY BOY 8/5
# 1 WELL LETS SEE 7/5
# 3 SPY IN THE CAMP 10/1
CINDY'S PARTY BOY has a really good shot to take this contest. Have a gut feel this one might steal in here. If performance in the last race is any indication, this harness racer will have a very very nice shot for this one. High last race speed figure. The consortium has Devaux on its list of drivers who are tough as nails recently. Last 30 days win percent is exemplary. WELL LETS SEE - Top notch win rate combined with recent formidable performances. We think he can handle this group. Recent stats for the driver - 21 percent win - make this gelding a clear choice in the group. SPY IN THE CAMP - With a good 66 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 76
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 117 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 4 JAMAICA BAY 9/2
# 2 PRIVATE SUNSHINE 2/1
# 5 AMOR INCONDICIONAL 3/1
I have to consider JAMAICA BAY here. The handler wheels this one back soon to race again. Her 71 average has this mare with among the most competitive speed figures for this race. Ran a sharp last race. PRIVATE SUNSHINE - Is a solid contender based on numbers recorded recently under today's conditions. Looks very good to be on the front end at the first call. AMOR INCONDICIONAL - Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved swiftly to the front end recently. With a solid 65 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 76
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 117 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 4 JAMAICA BAY 9/2
# 2 PRIVATE SUNSHINE 2/1
# 5 AMOR INCONDICIONAL 3/1
I have to consider JAMAICA BAY here. The handler wheels this one back soon to race again. Her 71 average has this mare with among the most competitive speed figures for this race. Ran a sharp last race. PRIVATE SUNSHINE - Is a solid contender based on numbers recorded recently under today's conditions. Looks very good to be on the front end at the first call. AMOR INCONDICIONAL - Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved swiftly to the front end recently. With a solid 65 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Allowance - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 89
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 7 LUVINMEISEASY 9/2
# 1 CAP TRICK 3/1
# 6 MOON GATE WARRIOR 5/2
LUVINMEISEASY has a very strong shot to take this race. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of decent win percentage - 22 percent - at this distance & surface. With a strong 89 Equibase speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. CAP TRICK - Has been running solidly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. He has very good class ratings, averaging 95, and has to be considered in this contest. MOON GATE WARRIOR - Shows sound speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. This jockey and handler team has produced some solid ROI numbers at this track.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Allowance - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 89
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 7 LUVINMEISEASY 9/2
# 1 CAP TRICK 3/1
# 6 MOON GATE WARRIOR 5/2
LUVINMEISEASY has a very strong shot to take this race. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of decent win percentage - 22 percent - at this distance & surface. With a strong 89 Equibase speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. CAP TRICK - Has been running solidly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. He has very good class ratings, averaging 95, and has to be considered in this contest. MOON GATE WARRIOR - Shows sound speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. This jockey and handler team has produced some solid ROI numbers at this track.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Gulfstream Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#1 WHO'S YOUR DRAMA (ML=5/2)
WHO'S YOUR DRAMA - This rider and handler are solid together. Win percent when teamed up is very hard to better. This animal has recorded the best recent turf speed fig at the distance and surface. Based on workouts, I look for this gelding to run a big race. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the form to make his presence felt. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. To me, that's a good indication he will be very competitive in this turf race. This gelding's recent Equibase speed figures have been as consistent as they get. No reason today will be any different, so I expect to see this thoroughbred in the winner's circle. This equine is at the top in earnings per race. He looks nice in today's affair.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 KITTEN FOR GRANNY (ML=3/1), #9 DAWN PATROL (ML=4/1),
KITTEN FOR GRANNY - Will be hard for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. DAWN PATROL - Hard to bet on at 4/1 odds after the most recent efforts.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WHO'S YOUR DRAMA - Second race back this horse had a speed number of 87 on the turf. Forget this gelding's last race, he is prime for a big race today.
*
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #1 WHO'S YOUR DRAMA to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [11,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
None
Gulfstream Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#1 WHO'S YOUR DRAMA (ML=5/2)
WHO'S YOUR DRAMA - This rider and handler are solid together. Win percent when teamed up is very hard to better. This animal has recorded the best recent turf speed fig at the distance and surface. Based on workouts, I look for this gelding to run a big race. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the form to make his presence felt. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. To me, that's a good indication he will be very competitive in this turf race. This gelding's recent Equibase speed figures have been as consistent as they get. No reason today will be any different, so I expect to see this thoroughbred in the winner's circle. This equine is at the top in earnings per race. He looks nice in today's affair.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 KITTEN FOR GRANNY (ML=3/1), #9 DAWN PATROL (ML=4/1),
KITTEN FOR GRANNY - Will be hard for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. DAWN PATROL - Hard to bet on at 4/1 odds after the most recent efforts.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WHO'S YOUR DRAMA - Second race back this horse had a speed number of 87 on the turf. Forget this gelding's last race, he is prime for a big race today.
*
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #1 WHO'S YOUR DRAMA to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [11,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
None
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Turfway Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#4 CASTLEFINN (ML=4/1)
CASTLEFINN - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Prentice rode this animal for the initial time last race out and comes right back in today's race. This gelding's last speed rating is lofty enough to win here, I'll play him right back this time.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DEMARLBORO (ML=8/5), #6 GUILTY STREAK (ML=2/1), #2 TOM'S MY FRIEND (ML=8/1),
DEMARLBORO - Tough to play any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the shot. This runner ran a mediocre speed fig last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat today running that fig. GUILTY STREAK - Hasn't been coming close at all recently.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CASTLEFINN - I'm making a wager on this one today. An easier spot is going to make a big difference. Will be competitive today.
**
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 CASTLEFINN is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Turfway Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#4 CASTLEFINN (ML=4/1)
CASTLEFINN - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Prentice rode this animal for the initial time last race out and comes right back in today's race. This gelding's last speed rating is lofty enough to win here, I'll play him right back this time.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DEMARLBORO (ML=8/5), #6 GUILTY STREAK (ML=2/1), #2 TOM'S MY FRIEND (ML=8/1),
DEMARLBORO - Tough to play any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the shot. This runner ran a mediocre speed fig last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat today running that fig. GUILTY STREAK - Hasn't been coming close at all recently.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CASTLEFINN - I'm making a wager on this one today. An easier spot is going to make a big difference. Will be competitive today.
**
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 CASTLEFINN is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:20 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $16,000.00 CLAIMING $31,000.00 PURSE
#3 JUST GOT OUT
#2 MADDIZASKAR
#1 NATALIE VICTORIA
#5 MY JIMMY CHEW GIRL
#3 JUST GOT OUT, the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, takes a class drop (-4), and has hit the board in four of her last five outings, with three of those "board hit efforts," also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." Jockey Jose Oritz and Trainer Linda Rice send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 57% of more than 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MADDIZASKAR, a 4-1 shot, takes a class drop (-5), is the overall pace profile leader in this field, and has hit the board in three of her last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back.
RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:20 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $16,000.00 CLAIMING $31,000.00 PURSE
#3 JUST GOT OUT
#2 MADDIZASKAR
#1 NATALIE VICTORIA
#5 MY JIMMY CHEW GIRL
#3 JUST GOT OUT, the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, takes a class drop (-4), and has hit the board in four of her last five outings, with three of those "board hit efforts," also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." Jockey Jose Oritz and Trainer Linda Rice send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 57% of more than 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MADDIZASKAR, a 4-1 shot, takes a class drop (-5), is the overall pace profile leader in this field, and has hit the board in three of her last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back.
Woodbine Harness: Thursday 12/15 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 50 - 197 / $276.20
BEST BETS: 8 - 19 / $25.80 SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 19 / $19.10
PICK 5: 2,7,9/1,3,7/1,5,10/3,8/4,6,10 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,8/4,6,10/1,4,6/6,7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 6,7/ALL/10/2 = $20
Best Bet: HUGHGEETTHECREDIT (10th)
Spot Play: ONE LAST BONO (9th)
Race 1
(9) CLOUSEAU HAN0VER took a major shuffle last week but he did have some late pace to offer. Maybe he has found a good spot here. (7) FREDDY BEAR is worth a look as he attracts Filion off a powerful debut win out of town. (2) SWELLENDAM finished quickly last week and he is in with a decent chance here. (1) AMAZING PERCH goes first time off the claim after missing time. He is likely to grab a smaller slice here.
Race 2
(7) WITHAHEARTTOMACH had some trot to offer late in the mile after getting shuffled last time. She looks as good as any in a wide-open trot to kick things off. (3) GROUPIE DOLL qualified okay and she seems to do her best work for Filion; using. (1) ARCHERY moves off the 10-hole which could result in a bit easier trip here. (6) SUNRISE AVENUE is turning into a bit of a money-burner. I'll play against her again.
Race 3
(10) IMSPORTY goes for the highest tag here off a powerful life's best win last week and not even the 10-hole should stop him here. (5) OCAPTAIN MYCAPTAIN couldn't stay with the winner last week, but he could improve in his second start over the track and is the likeliest winner if the choice falters. (1) TOP DESIRE raced well against a huge chalk at Flamboro after breaking early. He isn't without a shot here. (9) MACH POWER comes up tagged for the first time off a bad line; your call.
Race 4
(8) LIKEAVIRGIN steps up off a game uncovered win at Flamboro. He has beaten better in the past. Expect early aggression here. (3) CHOSEN HOMBRE should wake up in this spot as this is a big class drop. (5) PYLATER moves into conditioned claimers which should produce a better result. (1) EVERY DAY also exits a tougher race which makes him a contender.
Race 5
(6) NEWBIE qualified sharply against some classier foes. He should be ready to fire off the bench. (10) KEYSTONE KEEN obliterated a weaker field at Flamboro, but if he can clear before the turn here, he could be gone again. (4) NEXT THING SMOKEN has taken action at the windows in both Woodbine starts and now he drops to the bottom class; using. (1) LEVY TAYLORE can close for a smaller share here.
Race 6
(1) WAVE CRASHER - a winner in only his third start - takes on a few chronic losers here. He looks as good as any in a tough race to figure. (4) IN FOR ALONG HAUL can improve in his second start if he can start quicker. (6) GIULIANA comes off a win vs. cheaper, but there are no world beaters in here. (7) IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U - a 24-time loser - figures to take a slice again.
Race 7
(7) FRONTIER SEELSTER has paced 27-flat third quarters in each of his last two starts. He is razor-sharp and just needs a trip. (6) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED finished well last week and he should improve coming back in 7 days this time. (9) FANCOURT steps up of an easy maiden win but he isn't likely to get the same soft 1/2 in here. (3) SHARKY SHARK just missed in this class two back then got a rough trip last time. He should be closer leaving from a better post.
Race 8
(9) ALACRITY drops back to the class where he races best; slight nod. (3) CRACKER ZACK could take these down the road if he stays trotting, but that part is hard to predict with him. (2) CHIEVOUS COLE raced well in this class first off the claim; using. (6) FEDERAL has improving form and he isn't out of this.
Race 9
(10) ONE LAST BONO goes for hot connections here off the claim and McNair will no doubt be rolling her early. (8) TIGRA SEELSTER should be heard from here also making her first start off a claim. (7) HONOR ROLL should be competitive while in for a tag. (5) KAYLAS DREAM ships in for a cold barn. I wouldn't take a short price on this one.
Race 10
(2) HUGHGETTHECREDIT paced a huge winning mile last week in this class. He is hard to go past here. (6) MR MATCH ON BEACH steps up off a nice score, but his only hope in here might be to try to land in the choice's pocket at the start. (10) BLUE FOX should improve in his second start over this track, but post probably dooms him to a smaller share. (5) MAX IS BACK can pass horses late, also for a smaller share. (8) CEDAR DUNES makes his first start in a new barn and he could crash the exotics at a price.
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 50 - 197 / $276.20
BEST BETS: 8 - 19 / $25.80 SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 19 / $19.10
PICK 5: 2,7,9/1,3,7/1,5,10/3,8/4,6,10 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,8/4,6,10/1,4,6/6,7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 6,7/ALL/10/2 = $20
Best Bet: HUGHGEETTHECREDIT (10th)
Spot Play: ONE LAST BONO (9th)
Race 1
(9) CLOUSEAU HAN0VER took a major shuffle last week but he did have some late pace to offer. Maybe he has found a good spot here. (7) FREDDY BEAR is worth a look as he attracts Filion off a powerful debut win out of town. (2) SWELLENDAM finished quickly last week and he is in with a decent chance here. (1) AMAZING PERCH goes first time off the claim after missing time. He is likely to grab a smaller slice here.
Race 2
(7) WITHAHEARTTOMACH had some trot to offer late in the mile after getting shuffled last time. She looks as good as any in a wide-open trot to kick things off. (3) GROUPIE DOLL qualified okay and she seems to do her best work for Filion; using. (1) ARCHERY moves off the 10-hole which could result in a bit easier trip here. (6) SUNRISE AVENUE is turning into a bit of a money-burner. I'll play against her again.
Race 3
(10) IMSPORTY goes for the highest tag here off a powerful life's best win last week and not even the 10-hole should stop him here. (5) OCAPTAIN MYCAPTAIN couldn't stay with the winner last week, but he could improve in his second start over the track and is the likeliest winner if the choice falters. (1) TOP DESIRE raced well against a huge chalk at Flamboro after breaking early. He isn't without a shot here. (9) MACH POWER comes up tagged for the first time off a bad line; your call.
Race 4
(8) LIKEAVIRGIN steps up off a game uncovered win at Flamboro. He has beaten better in the past. Expect early aggression here. (3) CHOSEN HOMBRE should wake up in this spot as this is a big class drop. (5) PYLATER moves into conditioned claimers which should produce a better result. (1) EVERY DAY also exits a tougher race which makes him a contender.
Race 5
(6) NEWBIE qualified sharply against some classier foes. He should be ready to fire off the bench. (10) KEYSTONE KEEN obliterated a weaker field at Flamboro, but if he can clear before the turn here, he could be gone again. (4) NEXT THING SMOKEN has taken action at the windows in both Woodbine starts and now he drops to the bottom class; using. (1) LEVY TAYLORE can close for a smaller share here.
Race 6
(1) WAVE CRASHER - a winner in only his third start - takes on a few chronic losers here. He looks as good as any in a tough race to figure. (4) IN FOR ALONG HAUL can improve in his second start if he can start quicker. (6) GIULIANA comes off a win vs. cheaper, but there are no world beaters in here. (7) IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U - a 24-time loser - figures to take a slice again.
Race 7
(7) FRONTIER SEELSTER has paced 27-flat third quarters in each of his last two starts. He is razor-sharp and just needs a trip. (6) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED finished well last week and he should improve coming back in 7 days this time. (9) FANCOURT steps up of an easy maiden win but he isn't likely to get the same soft 1/2 in here. (3) SHARKY SHARK just missed in this class two back then got a rough trip last time. He should be closer leaving from a better post.
Race 8
(9) ALACRITY drops back to the class where he races best; slight nod. (3) CRACKER ZACK could take these down the road if he stays trotting, but that part is hard to predict with him. (2) CHIEVOUS COLE raced well in this class first off the claim; using. (6) FEDERAL has improving form and he isn't out of this.
Race 9
(10) ONE LAST BONO goes for hot connections here off the claim and McNair will no doubt be rolling her early. (8) TIGRA SEELSTER should be heard from here also making her first start off a claim. (7) HONOR ROLL should be competitive while in for a tag. (5) KAYLAS DREAM ships in for a cold barn. I wouldn't take a short price on this one.
Race 10
(2) HUGHGETTHECREDIT paced a huge winning mile last week in this class. He is hard to go past here. (6) MR MATCH ON BEACH steps up off a nice score, but his only hope in here might be to try to land in the choice's pocket at the start. (10) BLUE FOX should improve in his second start over this track, but post probably dooms him to a smaller share. (5) MAX IS BACK can pass horses late, also for a smaller share. (8) CEDAR DUNES makes his first start in a new barn and he could crash the exotics at a price.
Meadowlands: Thursday 12/15 Analysis
By Derick Giwner
DRF
MEET STATS: 59 - 185 / $292.80 (-$77.20)
BEST BETS: 6 - 15 / $15.80 (-$14.20)
Best Bet: GOLDEN SON (4th)
Spot Play: WAITING ON A WOMAN (6th)
Race 1
(9) HILL I AM adds Lasix and drops down this week while facing a rather weak field. (5) BRANDOS MUSCLE MAN closed for third with Brett Miler in the bike two starts back and draws better this week. (3) FASHION ZOOMALOT took a shot and held her ground in her first start for new trainer Chris Marino. Four-year-old can build on that effort. (10) BELL A CHICK seems likely to be along for a nice share if he minds his manners.
Race 2
I’m not convinced whether (4) GAMBLER SPRINGS at 12 years old is fast enough to beat this field, but the weather is expected to be nippy, which should bring them all closer together. You have to at least respect any horse Bob Krivelin drives in the amateur ranks. (2) DREAM ROCKER scored as soon as I jumped ship last week; obvious player. (6) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN was a solid winner two starts back and barn and driver have been doing well.
Race 3
I’m really not thrilled with any of these ladies so I’m going to stick with (6) LET HER ROCK because I won’t forgive myself if she switches to off the pace tactics and wins. (8) MOJARRA HANOVER has made her way to the basement condition here and instantly becomes a dangerous commodity. (1) UP YOUR GAME comes back from vacation with Lasix added off a decent qualifier.
Race 4
(3) GOLDEN SON drifted a bit in his qualifier last Saturday but still was an easy winner. Son of Majestic Son adds John Campbell and should be tough if he behaves. (5) CHICAGO DE VIE missed his first two years of racing but has made up for it with three consecutive wins to begin his career; clear threat. (2) PERFECT ROAD has been racing well and finished just behind the #5 last time. (4) SHOEMAKER HANOVER tends to hit the board more often than not.
Race 5
I’m somewhat torn between (5) ELM GROVE INARUSH & (4) KELLI RACHELLE who are both dropping in class. Ultimately I’m leaning to the former because she comes off a pretty sharp mile despite facing traffic and having to wait until mid-stretch for clearance. (7) SHE’S HEAVENLY also drops in class. She has some dangerous early speed.
Race 6
(3) WAITING ON A WOMAN was completely backed out of the race last Friday when the leader stopped. He would have finished much better with clearance in what was a very quick mile of 1:52 3/5. It is also worth nothing that he picked up a win at this level three starts back. (10) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE ships in off a solid mile and knows how to win here. He could be a decent value play from post 10. (7) PROMISE DELIVERED rallied nicely off the bench in his first start for this barn. (2) JACKS TO OPEN is off a lifetime best mile.
Race 7
(1) BLUSH HANOVER rallied nicely a week ago and has actually been in form for a few weeks now; Brett Miller’s choice. (7) CAVIART SHELLY has the early speed to make some noise if Campbell elects to fire off the wings of the gate. (3) BULLVILLE MAGGIE has been climbing the ladder and keeping her form nicely. (6) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT failed as the favorite last time but still merits respect.
Race 8
(5) STITCH IN TIME hasn’t shown much in over a month with a quick look but did show more stretch life last time out. Slight class drop this week could make a difference. (10) WORLD CUP has been failing on the lead. Maybe post 10 will force new tactics. (4) ONDA DI MARE is off a sharp score and has the early speed to play a major role. (2) SHEER FLEX & (7) P L ICABOD are both coming off open length victories.
Race 9
(1) INTOVIEW drops back down to the class where she won three starts back. This field came up tougher but she outdrew her competition. (7) SHEEZA SHARK N was better last time and remains very dangerous if she can work out a live trip. (8) RIGHT STUFF sprinted home nicely but was too far back to menace a week ago; needs a smooth trip. (9) TRUTH AND LIBERTY is an interesting shipper from Saratoga. When last seen here she was facing better foes.
Race 10
(2) BIG EXPENSE raced okay from an outside post last time and gets the slight nod for the top driver on the card. (3) WALLTOCOUSINS is back at The Meadowlands while up in class after a win in his last trip here. (8) MIDFIELD MAGIC sees his claiming price drop in half tonight. That alone should make him competitive. (6) ULSTER hung around reasonably well on the lead last time; using underneath only.
Race 11
(7) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT kept his act together with hobbles added and maybe he can show even more now. Let’s give him the weak call in a close-knit race. (4) WINWOOD SCOUT has a serious chance of making the front and might just get lucky. (2) TAC’S DELIGHT blew up at the start and lost all chance a week ago; can rebound. (6) SWEET JUSTICE failed to fire last time but I’m not giving up hope yet. (10) EXQUISITE GLIDE qualified back nicely. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Alagna trainee was ready to fire off the bench.
Race 12
(2) HOT PATOOTIE comes off a confidence building win and faces a blank field; narrow call. (4) WOMAN OF TERROR ships in with form on her side and she has succeeded here in the past. (8) ROCKERS ALLEY won her last week and there is no reason she can’t do it again. (10) ST LADS MORGAN has form but a difficult post to overcome.
By Derick Giwner
DRF
MEET STATS: 59 - 185 / $292.80 (-$77.20)
BEST BETS: 6 - 15 / $15.80 (-$14.20)
Best Bet: GOLDEN SON (4th)
Spot Play: WAITING ON A WOMAN (6th)
Race 1
(9) HILL I AM adds Lasix and drops down this week while facing a rather weak field. (5) BRANDOS MUSCLE MAN closed for third with Brett Miler in the bike two starts back and draws better this week. (3) FASHION ZOOMALOT took a shot and held her ground in her first start for new trainer Chris Marino. Four-year-old can build on that effort. (10) BELL A CHICK seems likely to be along for a nice share if he minds his manners.
Race 2
I’m not convinced whether (4) GAMBLER SPRINGS at 12 years old is fast enough to beat this field, but the weather is expected to be nippy, which should bring them all closer together. You have to at least respect any horse Bob Krivelin drives in the amateur ranks. (2) DREAM ROCKER scored as soon as I jumped ship last week; obvious player. (6) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN was a solid winner two starts back and barn and driver have been doing well.
Race 3
I’m really not thrilled with any of these ladies so I’m going to stick with (6) LET HER ROCK because I won’t forgive myself if she switches to off the pace tactics and wins. (8) MOJARRA HANOVER has made her way to the basement condition here and instantly becomes a dangerous commodity. (1) UP YOUR GAME comes back from vacation with Lasix added off a decent qualifier.
Race 4
(3) GOLDEN SON drifted a bit in his qualifier last Saturday but still was an easy winner. Son of Majestic Son adds John Campbell and should be tough if he behaves. (5) CHICAGO DE VIE missed his first two years of racing but has made up for it with three consecutive wins to begin his career; clear threat. (2) PERFECT ROAD has been racing well and finished just behind the #5 last time. (4) SHOEMAKER HANOVER tends to hit the board more often than not.
Race 5
I’m somewhat torn between (5) ELM GROVE INARUSH & (4) KELLI RACHELLE who are both dropping in class. Ultimately I’m leaning to the former because she comes off a pretty sharp mile despite facing traffic and having to wait until mid-stretch for clearance. (7) SHE’S HEAVENLY also drops in class. She has some dangerous early speed.
Race 6
(3) WAITING ON A WOMAN was completely backed out of the race last Friday when the leader stopped. He would have finished much better with clearance in what was a very quick mile of 1:52 3/5. It is also worth nothing that he picked up a win at this level three starts back. (10) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE ships in off a solid mile and knows how to win here. He could be a decent value play from post 10. (7) PROMISE DELIVERED rallied nicely off the bench in his first start for this barn. (2) JACKS TO OPEN is off a lifetime best mile.
Race 7
(1) BLUSH HANOVER rallied nicely a week ago and has actually been in form for a few weeks now; Brett Miller’s choice. (7) CAVIART SHELLY has the early speed to make some noise if Campbell elects to fire off the wings of the gate. (3) BULLVILLE MAGGIE has been climbing the ladder and keeping her form nicely. (6) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT failed as the favorite last time but still merits respect.
Race 8
(5) STITCH IN TIME hasn’t shown much in over a month with a quick look but did show more stretch life last time out. Slight class drop this week could make a difference. (10) WORLD CUP has been failing on the lead. Maybe post 10 will force new tactics. (4) ONDA DI MARE is off a sharp score and has the early speed to play a major role. (2) SHEER FLEX & (7) P L ICABOD are both coming off open length victories.
Race 9
(1) INTOVIEW drops back down to the class where she won three starts back. This field came up tougher but she outdrew her competition. (7) SHEEZA SHARK N was better last time and remains very dangerous if she can work out a live trip. (8) RIGHT STUFF sprinted home nicely but was too far back to menace a week ago; needs a smooth trip. (9) TRUTH AND LIBERTY is an interesting shipper from Saratoga. When last seen here she was facing better foes.
Race 10
(2) BIG EXPENSE raced okay from an outside post last time and gets the slight nod for the top driver on the card. (3) WALLTOCOUSINS is back at The Meadowlands while up in class after a win in his last trip here. (8) MIDFIELD MAGIC sees his claiming price drop in half tonight. That alone should make him competitive. (6) ULSTER hung around reasonably well on the lead last time; using underneath only.
Race 11
(7) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT kept his act together with hobbles added and maybe he can show even more now. Let’s give him the weak call in a close-knit race. (4) WINWOOD SCOUT has a serious chance of making the front and might just get lucky. (2) TAC’S DELIGHT blew up at the start and lost all chance a week ago; can rebound. (6) SWEET JUSTICE failed to fire last time but I’m not giving up hope yet. (10) EXQUISITE GLIDE qualified back nicely. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Alagna trainee was ready to fire off the bench.
Race 12
(2) HOT PATOOTIE comes off a confidence building win and faces a blank field; narrow call. (4) WOMAN OF TERROR ships in with form on her side and she has succeeded here in the past. (8) ROCKERS ALLEY won her last week and there is no reason she can’t do it again. (10) ST LADS MORGAN has form but a difficult post to overcome.
Spot Plays
For Thursday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (1st) Mr. Euro, 3-1
(4th) Celtic Serenade, 3-1
Charles Town (2nd) Great Red Dragon, 3-1
(8th) Kearney Square, 6-1
Delta Downs (6th) Avalanche Girl, 5-1
(8th) Brighton Lane, 7-2
Fair Grounds (3rd) Scitech, 8-1
(7th) Archangel Rose, 7-2
Gulfstream Park (5th) Hines, 4-1
(9th) Bon Heir, 10-1
Los Alamitos (1st) Tribella, 4-1
(4th) Tough Emblem, 3-1
Penn National (5th) Consorts Ring, 7-2
(7th) Ariel’s Vision, 4-1
Turfway Park (3rd) Eastern Mischief, 10-1
(7th) Sunset Sands, 7-2
For Thursday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (1st) Mr. Euro, 3-1
(4th) Celtic Serenade, 3-1
Charles Town (2nd) Great Red Dragon, 3-1
(8th) Kearney Square, 6-1
Delta Downs (6th) Avalanche Girl, 5-1
(8th) Brighton Lane, 7-2
Fair Grounds (3rd) Scitech, 8-1
(7th) Archangel Rose, 7-2
Gulfstream Park (5th) Hines, 4-1
(9th) Bon Heir, 10-1
Los Alamitos (1st) Tribella, 4-1
(4th) Tough Emblem, 3-1
Penn National (5th) Consorts Ring, 7-2
(7th) Ariel’s Vision, 4-1
Turfway Park (3rd) Eastern Mischief, 10-1
(7th) Sunset Sands, 7-2
