Horse Racing 12-11-16

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At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

It looks like Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has another serious Kentucky Derby contender in Mastery, who trounced the field in yesterday’s $300,000 Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1).

The colt picked up 10 points toward entry into the Run for the Roses next spring and remained undefeated, showing he could handle two turns.

The colt sat just off the pace set by Bobby Abu Dhabi, took over the lead in upper stretch with longshot Irap making a late move to engage, but the colt drew off late to win by 7 ¼ lengths.

The colt, ridden by Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith, returned $2.40 as the heavy favorite.

The $425,000 Keeneland purchase broke his maiden at Santa Anita on Oct. 22 and then won the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3) on Nov. 19.

His early odds in Kentucky Derby future wagering is dropping. As of Saturday night, he has dropped to 8-1, now the second choice behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Classic Empire at 6-1.

Mastery is still listed at +1000 but that price may drop a point or two in the next day or so.

Baffert was winning the Los Alamitos Futurity for a record ninth time, and for the third year in a row. He won it last year with Mor Spirit and in 2015 with Dortmund.

The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points races are the Jerome (G2) at Aqueduct and the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita on Jan. 7.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $6,260 (12:35 ET)
#9 Gold Crescent 9-2
#2 Great Way Lady 3-1
#1 Like a Charm 8-1
#3 Starship Impulse 7-2

Analysis: Gold Crescent was off a beat slow last out and then lacked room forcing the jockey to check sharply, came with a seven-wide bid and was picking it up late in a fifth-place finish. This gal has shown some early zip and with a cleaner break should be forwardly placed against this group. She has a solid off track pedigree if the rains continue.

Great Way Lady exits the same race where she dueled for the early lead and did not have enough punch in the final furlong in a third-place finish, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot as the beaten favorite. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and Navarro is off to a hot start at the meeting.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,9 / 1,2,3,9
TRI: 2,9 / 1,2,3,9 / 1,2,3,5,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 The Bay Ridge (3:14 ET)
#7 First Service 4-1
#5 Super Surprise 2-1
#8 Jules N Rome 5-2
#3 Isabelle 6-1

Analysis: First Service took the field gate to wire to beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers last out, drawing away to win by 5 1/2 lengths for the Brown barn. The filly returns here for her stakes debut and she looks up to it. She has plenty of pedigree for her first trip around two turns. She is by Ghostzapper out of a Mineshaft mare. Brown is 30% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Super Surprise stretches back out to a route after making a mild late run to finish third last out in a NY Stallion Series race. The winner Highway Star came back to win the Go for wand 'Cap (G3) in her next outing here on Dec. 3. The Pletcher trainee won the state bred Fleet Indian two back at nine furlongs at the Spa and the stretch out here suits her.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 3,5,7,8
TRI: 5,7 / 3,5,7,8 / 3,5,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:32 ET)
#9 Love Thy Kitten 4-1
#10 Collections Choice 12-1
#2 Jaunt 7-2
#1 Storm the Hill 6-1

Analysis: Love Thy Kitten debuts for the Chad Brown barn that is 19% winners (with a +ROI) with fir time starters. The filly is by Kitten's Joy out of a Saint Ballado mare that has dropped four winners and three are stakes winners, top earner Tweet Kitten ($195,765). A solid string of works and she debuts with lasix. Looks like a good fit on turf or on dirt.

Collections Choice debuts for the Clement barn that is 16% winners (with a +ROI) with firsters. This gal is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track. She is by Bernardini out of the stakes winner Model ($497,536) who has dropped one winner, 1 for 4 Senor Casanova ($16,475) the maiden score coming in a turf route. Solid works on the morning tab at Payson.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 9,10 / 1,2,9,10
TRI: 9,10 / 1,2,9,10 / 1,2,5,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Like a Charm 8-1
R4: #1 Dreaming of Gold 20-1
R5: #11 Time to Shine 12-1
R6: #2 Starship Rocky 10-1
R7: #10 Collections Choice 12-1
R8: #7 All Over Me 12-1
R9: #7 Leverkusen 15-1
R10: #3 Ntrepidore 8-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$5200 - HORSES & GELDINGS -CLAIMING $6500-$8500.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 JET AIRLINER 9/5
# 5 PRINCE ADAM 7/1
# 4 BUCKSHOT AUSTIN 3/1

JET AIRLINER will have you running to the cashier's window here. This standardbred looks strong. Check out the 81 avg speed rating. He has really good class numbers, averaging 79. Should be considered for a bet in this contest. Many horse players will recognize the stellar speed fig in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this group of horses. PRINCE ADAM - The handicapping team knows that speed is the key in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice ultimate prize. Driver-trainer are no strangers to the winners circle and should have this gelding breaking away from the group of horses. BUCKSHOT AUSTIN - The handicapping group will always toss in a race horse from the 4 position here at Flamboro Downs, keep in mind for your exotics. This gelding getting the victory wouldn't be impossible, a chance.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 12:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 89 - Purse:$9000 - NW $4,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS PA PREFERENCE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 OHOKA TEXAS N 5/1
# 2 MY TEMUDJIN N 9/2
# 5 ALWAYS N THE MONEY 7/2

OHOKA TEXAS N sure does look ready to score. Should be considered for this one if only for the nice speed fig earned in the last outing. Don't count out this horse, especially with Morgan in the race bike. Hitting the board rate is terrific. Look for Hartline and this standardbred to dominate here. Very good in the money clip for the trainer/horse match. MY TEMUDJIN N - Could more than likely defeat this pack given the 88 speed fig achieved in his last race. ALWAYS N THE MONEY - Drawing the 5 position at this track has lead to a much higher than average win pct. Has nice TrackMaster Speed Ratings and most likely has to be considered for a wager in this race.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - SO - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 99

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2015-2016 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 WHISKEY BIZ 7/2

# 1 BIG KICK 9/5

# 7 RIGHT SQUALL 3/1

WHISKEY BIZ is the most competitive wager in this race. Recently Faucheux has provided investors with a very good winning percentage with horses running in dirt route races. Faucheux has him trained strongly to break sharply out of the starting gate. Had one of the top speed figures of this group of horses in his last race. BIG KICK - I like the rider on this gelding - solid chance to win the contest. Must be given a chance based on the competitive speed figure posted in the last competition. RIGHT SQUALL - Earnings per start in dirt route races is strong for this pony. A solid 101 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group of horses
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Allowance - 550y on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 93

QUARTER HORSE 550Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 5 FIRE N DICE 8/1

# 3 BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS 3/1

# 12 WALKEN TO THE MOON 8/1

FIRE N DICE looks strong to best this group and could score at a price in here. Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last race. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS - Could best this group here, showing very good figures of late. With Valenzuela in the saddle guiding her, this filly ought to be able to break out sharply here. WALKEN TO THE MOON - Has posted sound Speed Figures in longer quarter horse races in the past. Has to be given a shot - I like the figures from the last contest.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#6 BIG BRANCH (ML=6/1)
#5 BORN IN BROOKLYN (ML=7/2)
#1 HEY WILLIE (ML=3/1)
#3 NO DELAY (ML=20/1)


BIG BRANCH - This jockey and trainer have a high win pct together. BORN IN BROOKLYN - Should do well in this field. Weight shift of -6 from November 2nd race at Finger Lakes. HEY WILLIE - That last morning drill tells me this gelding is set for a top race. NO DELAY - It looks like Carrow had to know this gelding on November 26th when riding him for the first time. Back aboard again today. This gelding is obviously on the improve with speed ratings of 51, 76, 78 last 3 out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 COLD FACTS (ML=5/2), #2 GREEK GOD (ML=4/1),

COLD FACTS - He showed not much at all in the last race. GREEK GOD - I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with oddsmaker's morning line of 4/1. Garnered a substandard speed rating in the last race in a $7,500 Claiming race on November 26th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #6 BIG BRANCH to win if you can get odds of 9/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #8 - Post: 4:12pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,100 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#5 DIXIE VISION (ML=8/1)
#7 MISS VEETO (ML=2/1)


DIXIE VISION - It looks like Lopez had to know this filly on Nov 26th when riding her for the initial time. Back aloft again today. Generally, I don't play a thoroughbred off workouts alone, but when I see a filly work at the same distance or longer than a race she's entered in, I become interested. Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should be aided by today's shorter trip. Was in a $3,500 Claiming race at Turf Paradise in the last race. That race had a class rating of 76 and she is moving down in this race. A certain solid contender. Expect better today as this filly gets Lasix for the second time. MISS VEETO - A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a strong contest is a good sign. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should compete well today. You have to like that last race speed rating, 71, which is the best recent race figure of this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GOT RYTHUM (ML=9/5), #8 TIZ MY CHERRIE (FR) (ML=9/2), #6 PLUS PERFECT (ML=5/1),

GOT RYTHUM - This mare recorded a speed figure in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. TIZ MY CHERRIE (FR) - This filly hasn't had any recent accomplishments in sprint affairs. I find it hard to bet on her in this contest. Hard to bet on at 9/2 odds after the most recent efforts. PLUS PERFECT - Didn't land in the money on October 29th at Turf Paradise. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #5 DIXIE VISION to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #7 - AQUEDUCT - 3:20 PM EASTERN POST

The Bay Ridge Stakes

8½ FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES

$100,000.00 PURSE

#5 SUPER SURPRISE
#6 KATHY'S HUMOR
#8 JULES N ROME
#1 LITERATA

For you folks who are unfamiliar with the "geography" of New York City, this race is named for Bay Ridge, a neighborhood in the southwest corner of the New York City borough of Brooklyn. It is bounded by Sunset Park on the north, Dyker Heights on the east, the Narrows and the Belt Parkway on the west, Fort Hamilton Army Base in the southwest corner, and the Verrazano Bridge on the south. Here in just the 3rd running of "The Ridge," #5 SUPER SURPRISE is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this stakes field racing at, or about, 8½ furlongs on the dirt, hitting the board in four straight, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back. #6 KATHY'S HUMOR, a 15-1 BOMB, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has produced a trio of "POWER RUNS" in her last four starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back, and makes that classic "turf-to-dirt" move this afternoon.
 
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Spot Plays

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (2nd) Tiz Twice, 5-1
(5th) Banner Bill, 3-1


Fair Grounds (4th) Bellarmine, 3-1
(5th) Daria’s Angel, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (8th) Broken Up, 3-1
(9th) Storm Fashion, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (1st) Like a Charm, 8-1
(10th) Sir Ray, 6-1


Laurel Park (6th) My Charming Clyde, 5-1
(9th) Balabusta, 7-2


Los Alamitos (3rd) Ebony Cat, 7-2
(6th) Sir Studleigh, 3-1


Parx Racing (8th) R Bling Shines, 5-1
(9th) Shenango Valley, 4-1


Remington Park (2nd) Prospero, 3-1
(8th) Torrent, 3-1


Turf Paradise (6th) Masterful Stride, 9-2
(7th) Impeccably, 9-2


Turfway Park (1st) Leeloo’s Journey, 6-1
(8th) Tiger Paw, 3-1
 

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