At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey
Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed on Sunday with “All Others” the betting favorite at 6-5 while Classic Empire was the shortest price among the 23 separate betting interests at 6-1.
Classic Empire won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his last outing and is sitting on top of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Points standings with 30.
Churchill Downs has four future betting pools for the Run for the Roses and with it being 2017 and all you would think they would spruce up the technology and offer more than 24 betting interests.
That makes it tough to catch a big price on horse outside of the 23 top betting interests since they are all pooled together under “All Others.”
The current favorite is Classic Empire, who is at 6-1, followed by Mastery at 9-1 and McCracken at 10-1.
There are odds on nearly 200 horses, which can lead to some big prices, with dozens of horses at odds of 200-1 or higher, and the price is locked in when you make the wager.
In the Churchill Downs pools, the odds are fixed when the pool closes on each Sunday. So, you can make a wager on Thursday and watch the odds go lower by Sunday.
The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race is the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 10.
Current Betting Odds for the 2017 Kentucky Derby:
Classic Empire 6-1
Mastery 9-1
McCraken 10-1
Beach Bum 15-1
Gunnevera 15-1
Irish War Cry 15-1
Uncontested 15-1
Fact Finding 20-1
Mo Town 20-1
No Dozing 20-1
Practical Joke 20-1
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#4 Carradine 2-1
#3 Control Group 8-5
#1 Silky Way / 1a Can You Diggit 7-2
#5 Horoscope 8-1
Analysis: Carradine was beaten just a nose in a game debut for a $40,000 tag and then last out on a race washed off the turf on a wet track he regressed slightly in a fourth-place finish. The runner up and third place finisher both came back to graduate in their next starts. He should handle a one turn mile and a wet track, out of a Maria's Mon mare that has dropped two winners. Rice is 25% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Control Group tracked the early pace and finished up well in a runner up finish last out, beaten 2 1/4 lengths for the top spot. The third-place finisher Heavy Meddle returned to graduate in his next outing on Nov. 26 against state maiden special weight foes. The Contessa trainee came back with a bullet work on Nov. 27. He is bred to handle a wet track, by Posse out of a Victory Gallop mare.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Alw $50,000s (3:14 ET)
#5 Storm Petrel 5-1
#6 Scarlet Goddess 8-1
#10 Wildcat Belle 4-1
#9 Sing for Beauty 5-1
Analysis: Storm Petrel tracked the early pace and drew off in the stretch to a sharp win against $25,000 non-winners of two in her first trip over the main track here. The switch back to dirt seems to have suited this gal and she is bred to handle a wet track, by Congrats out of a Storm Cat mare. She looks primed for a good effort here third off the bench for Pletcher.
Scarlet Goddess makes her first start since July where she was beaten just a nose on turf going a mile at the Spa against $40,000 non-winners of two. The winner Annie Rocks came back to beat $50,000 non-winners of three and then beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in her next two outings. The Gullo barn is 14% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 5,6,9,10
TRI: 5,6 / 5,6,9,10 / 2,5,6,9,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #5 Horoscope 8-1
R2: #5 Star of the Forest 12-1
R3: #2 Fullback Foye 8-1
R4: #1 Howlin Md Smith 10-1
R6: #6 Forest Boy 8-1
R7: #6 Scarlet Goddess 8-1
R8: #1 Tiz Shea D 12-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed on Sunday with “All Others” the betting favorite at 6-5 while Classic Empire was the shortest price among the 23 separate betting interests at 6-1.
Classic Empire won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his last outing and is sitting on top of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Points standings with 30.
Churchill Downs has four future betting pools for the Run for the Roses and with it being 2017 and all you would think they would spruce up the technology and offer more than 24 betting interests.
That makes it tough to catch a big price on horse outside of the 23 top betting interests since they are all pooled together under “All Others.”
The current favorite is Classic Empire, who is at 6-1, followed by Mastery at 9-1 and McCracken at 10-1.
There are odds on nearly 200 horses, which can lead to some big prices, with dozens of horses at odds of 200-1 or higher, and the price is locked in when you make the wager.
In the Churchill Downs pools, the odds are fixed when the pool closes on each Sunday. So, you can make a wager on Thursday and watch the odds go lower by Sunday.
The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race is the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 10.
Current Betting Odds for the 2017 Kentucky Derby:
Classic Empire 6-1
Mastery 9-1
McCraken 10-1
Beach Bum 15-1
Gunnevera 15-1
Irish War Cry 15-1
Uncontested 15-1
Fact Finding 20-1
Mo Town 20-1
No Dozing 20-1
Practical Joke 20-1
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#4 Carradine 2-1
#3 Control Group 8-5
#1 Silky Way / 1a Can You Diggit 7-2
#5 Horoscope 8-1
Analysis: Carradine was beaten just a nose in a game debut for a $40,000 tag and then last out on a race washed off the turf on a wet track he regressed slightly in a fourth-place finish. The runner up and third place finisher both came back to graduate in their next starts. He should handle a one turn mile and a wet track, out of a Maria's Mon mare that has dropped two winners. Rice is 25% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Control Group tracked the early pace and finished up well in a runner up finish last out, beaten 2 1/4 lengths for the top spot. The third-place finisher Heavy Meddle returned to graduate in his next outing on Nov. 26 against state maiden special weight foes. The Contessa trainee came back with a bullet work on Nov. 27. He is bred to handle a wet track, by Posse out of a Victory Gallop mare.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Alw $50,000s (3:14 ET)
#5 Storm Petrel 5-1
#6 Scarlet Goddess 8-1
#10 Wildcat Belle 4-1
#9 Sing for Beauty 5-1
Analysis: Storm Petrel tracked the early pace and drew off in the stretch to a sharp win against $25,000 non-winners of two in her first trip over the main track here. The switch back to dirt seems to have suited this gal and she is bred to handle a wet track, by Congrats out of a Storm Cat mare. She looks primed for a good effort here third off the bench for Pletcher.
Scarlet Goddess makes her first start since July where she was beaten just a nose on turf going a mile at the Spa against $40,000 non-winners of two. The winner Annie Rocks came back to beat $50,000 non-winners of three and then beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in her next two outings. The Gullo barn is 14% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 5,6,9,10
TRI: 5,6 / 5,6,9,10 / 2,5,6,9,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #5 Horoscope 8-1
R2: #5 Star of the Forest 12-1
R3: #2 Fullback Foye 8-1
R4: #1 Howlin Md Smith 10-1
R6: #6 Forest Boy 8-1
R7: #6 Scarlet Goddess 8-1
R8: #1 Tiz Shea D 12-1
Good luck today!
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$11500 - NW $7,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW10500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 7 BADIX HANOVER 2/1
# 4 FIRE IN THE BELLY 10/1
# 3 FAN OF TERROR 3/1
After thorough analysis by the consortium, BADIX HANOVER comes out as the top selection. He has been competing strongly and the speed figs are among the most favorable in the group. The 94 average class statistic may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the bunch. Going to post admirably, earned a sharp TrackMaster speed fig in his most recent race (94). FIRE IN THE BELLY - The 4 hole is on fire here at Harrah's Philadelphia. More wins than the expected average. FAN OF TERROR - Has good TrackMaster Speed Ratings and very likely has to be thought of for a wager this time. Earned a 91 speed fig last out. A duplicate affair here should get the triumph in this race.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$11500 - NW $7,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW10500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 7 BADIX HANOVER 2/1
# 4 FIRE IN THE BELLY 10/1
# 3 FAN OF TERROR 3/1
After thorough analysis by the consortium, BADIX HANOVER comes out as the top selection. He has been competing strongly and the speed figs are among the most favorable in the group. The 94 average class statistic may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the bunch. Going to post admirably, earned a sharp TrackMaster speed fig in his most recent race (94). FIRE IN THE BELLY - The 4 hole is on fire here at Harrah's Philadelphia. More wins than the expected average. FAN OF TERROR - Has good TrackMaster Speed Ratings and very likely has to be thought of for a wager this time. Earned a 91 speed fig last out. A duplicate affair here should get the triumph in this race.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$6000 - THE `OVER THE HILL GANG` FOR 8-YEAR-OLDS AND UP - NON-WINNERS OF $30,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 1 ADENIUM 9/5
# 3 SOUTHWIND VOLTAGE 8/1
# 5 SING OUT 9/1
The pick here is ADENIUM. If performance in the most recent contest is any indicator, this race horse will have a very respectable shot for this race. High last race speed rating. Talk about a dynamic duo, Hennessey and Gilmour have some of the best driver-handler ratings at the track. The panel of smart guys has Hennessey on its list of drivers who are en fuego recently. Last 30 days win stat is excellent. SOUTHWIND VOLTAGE - Considered a solid wager based solely on his high triumph pct. He has very nice class statistics, averaging 83. Could be considered for a bet in this one. SING OUT - Starters win from this position at Pompano Park with better than average regularity, suggesting this magnificent bet.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$6000 - THE `OVER THE HILL GANG` FOR 8-YEAR-OLDS AND UP - NON-WINNERS OF $30,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 1 ADENIUM 9/5
# 3 SOUTHWIND VOLTAGE 8/1
# 5 SING OUT 9/1
The pick here is ADENIUM. If performance in the most recent contest is any indicator, this race horse will have a very respectable shot for this race. High last race speed rating. Talk about a dynamic duo, Hennessey and Gilmour have some of the best driver-handler ratings at the track. The panel of smart guys has Hennessey on its list of drivers who are en fuego recently. Last 30 days win stat is excellent. SOUTHWIND VOLTAGE - Considered a solid wager based solely on his high triumph pct. He has very nice class statistics, averaging 83. Could be considered for a bet in this one. SING OUT - Starters win from this position at Pompano Park with better than average regularity, suggesting this magnificent bet.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 65
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 1 TIZ BLESSED ONE 5/2
# 9 TOUGH TO THE BONE 7/2
# 8 SCOOT TOO 5/1
I favor TIZ BLESSED ONE here. Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. The Equibase Speed Figure of 63 from his last race looks decent in here. He has decent class ratings, averaging 67, and has to be carefully examined in this race. TOUGH TO THE BONE - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. He has garnered respectable numbers under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. SCOOT TOO - This pony has a wonderful win percentage in dirt sprints. Looks formidable to be up on the lead at the first call.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 65
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 1 TIZ BLESSED ONE 5/2
# 9 TOUGH TO THE BONE 7/2
# 8 SCOOT TOO 5/1
I favor TIZ BLESSED ONE here. Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. The Equibase Speed Figure of 63 from his last race looks decent in here. He has decent class ratings, averaging 67, and has to be carefully examined in this race. TOUGH TO THE BONE - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. He has garnered respectable numbers under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. SCOOT TOO - This pony has a wonderful win percentage in dirt sprints. Looks formidable to be up on the lead at the first call.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 74
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.; , 126 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 9 DSS SISSYS JET 5/1
# 4 ROGUE TO RICHES 6/1
# 2 TEE MATA 6/1
DSS SISSYS JET looks to be a solid contender. Maldonado will most likely be able to get this colt to break out quickly in here. He has a good opportunity in this competition as trainer, Touchet, has sharp win clip with horses going this distance. ROGUE TO RICHES - Vaunts sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. The tandem of Ramirez/Weeks has one of the most competitive ROI percentages in this field. TEE MATA - He has garnered very good numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this field. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 68 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this field.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 74
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.; , 126 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 9 DSS SISSYS JET 5/1
# 4 ROGUE TO RICHES 6/1
# 2 TEE MATA 6/1
DSS SISSYS JET looks to be a solid contender. Maldonado will most likely be able to get this colt to break out quickly in here. He has a good opportunity in this competition as trainer, Touchet, has sharp win clip with horses going this distance. ROGUE TO RICHES - Vaunts sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. The tandem of Ramirez/Weeks has one of the most competitive ROI percentages in this field. TEE MATA - He has garnered very good numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this field. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 68 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this field.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 3:14pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 88
Rating:
#10 WILDCAT BELLE (ML=4/1)
#5 STORM PETREL (ML=5/1)
#4 AVERY MAEVE (ML=10/1)
#9 SING FOR BEAUTY (ML=5/1)
WILDCAT BELLE - I think the shorter distance will help this filly stay the distance. The rider/handler tandem of Carmouche and Gargan has a strong ROI together. I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a strong race within the last 30 days. Already competed against today's M/L choice on Nov 4th at Aqueduct and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again right here in this race. STORM PETREL - Shipped in on November 10th to take the money here. Take right back again. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a sharp contest last time around the track within the last month or so. Filly is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a nice effort today. AVERY MAEVE - You'll be making money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this rider/handler combination. That 88 fig this filly recorded in her last event tells me she's a key player this time. This horse wins a lot of dough per race. I believe she will add to that bankroll right here. Came home fast in the last race at Belmont Park. That type of move bodes well for her chances in this race. SING FOR BEAUTY - Baker gets a break on this horse carrying 10 pounds less than last out. This should help in today's race. All systems look good for this filly. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. Recent speed ratings show solid pattern of improvement.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BAGEMA (ML=3/1), #8 SAME KINDA CRAZY (ML=8/1), #6 SCARLET GODDESS (ML=8/1),
BAGEMA - The fourth place result in the last race was not the greatest. SAME KINDA CRAZY - Tough to put your dough on this early speedster. Too much speed in the race. SCARLET GODDESS - No success for this questionable contender in a short distance event over the last two months tells me that this filly is in a formidable spot
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #10 WILDCAT BELLE on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 3:14pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 88
Rating:
#10 WILDCAT BELLE (ML=4/1)
#5 STORM PETREL (ML=5/1)
#4 AVERY MAEVE (ML=10/1)
#9 SING FOR BEAUTY (ML=5/1)
WILDCAT BELLE - I think the shorter distance will help this filly stay the distance. The rider/handler tandem of Carmouche and Gargan has a strong ROI together. I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a strong race within the last 30 days. Already competed against today's M/L choice on Nov 4th at Aqueduct and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again right here in this race. STORM PETREL - Shipped in on November 10th to take the money here. Take right back again. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a sharp contest last time around the track within the last month or so. Filly is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a nice effort today. AVERY MAEVE - You'll be making money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this rider/handler combination. That 88 fig this filly recorded in her last event tells me she's a key player this time. This horse wins a lot of dough per race. I believe she will add to that bankroll right here. Came home fast in the last race at Belmont Park. That type of move bodes well for her chances in this race. SING FOR BEAUTY - Baker gets a break on this horse carrying 10 pounds less than last out. This should help in today's race. All systems look good for this filly. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. Recent speed ratings show solid pattern of improvement.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BAGEMA (ML=3/1), #8 SAME KINDA CRAZY (ML=8/1), #6 SCARLET GODDESS (ML=8/1),
BAGEMA - The fourth place result in the last race was not the greatest. SAME KINDA CRAZY - Tough to put your dough on this early speedster. Too much speed in the race. SCARLET GODDESS - No success for this questionable contender in a short distance event over the last two months tells me that this filly is in a formidable spot
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #10 WILDCAT BELLE on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 68
Rating:
#5 SAGE MASTER (ML=8/1)
#7 TALLAWAH (ML=7/2)
#6 BROOK'S BAY B (ML=5/2)
#3 SUCCESSFUL PLAN (ML=8/1)
SAGE MASTER - The rider and handler combination have a beneficial ROI when they combine forces. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Mountaineer Park. TALLAWAH - Using this jock/conditioner combination is a good decision. The 59 most recent race speed rating looks mighty good on paper. BROOK'S BAY B - When this jock and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Cruz and Inirio have been wonderful together. Jock hops right back aloft after getting to know the magnificent animal by riding in the last race. That's always a good indicator. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a nice race last race out within the last month. SUCCESSFUL PLAN - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on November 23rd. Should be in touch with the equine even better in this race. The outside draw didn't help this horse's chances last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Today's inside post should be just fine.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 PURE TRUST (ML=4/1), #2 GIVEEMDAHEATER (ML=6/1), #1 EYE TO THRILL (ML=8/1),
PURE TRUST - This runner didn't go to the front end and didn't make up ground in the homestretch last time he ran. GIVEEMDAHEATER - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. EYE TO THRILL - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit of late.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #5 SAGE MASTER to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 68
Rating:
#5 SAGE MASTER (ML=8/1)
#7 TALLAWAH (ML=7/2)
#6 BROOK'S BAY B (ML=5/2)
#3 SUCCESSFUL PLAN (ML=8/1)
SAGE MASTER - The rider and handler combination have a beneficial ROI when they combine forces. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Mountaineer Park. TALLAWAH - Using this jock/conditioner combination is a good decision. The 59 most recent race speed rating looks mighty good on paper. BROOK'S BAY B - When this jock and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Cruz and Inirio have been wonderful together. Jock hops right back aloft after getting to know the magnificent animal by riding in the last race. That's always a good indicator. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a nice race last race out within the last month. SUCCESSFUL PLAN - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on November 23rd. Should be in touch with the equine even better in this race. The outside draw didn't help this horse's chances last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Today's inside post should be just fine.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 PURE TRUST (ML=4/1), #2 GIVEEMDAHEATER (ML=6/1), #1 EYE TO THRILL (ML=8/1),
PURE TRUST - This runner didn't go to the front end and didn't make up ground in the homestretch last time he ran. GIVEEMDAHEATER - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. EYE TO THRILL - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit of late.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #5 SAGE MASTER to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #6 - AQUEDUCT - 2:47 PM EASTERN POST
7.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE
#5 FRAZIL
#8 ONECATS CHANCE
#4 CASTAWAY
#6 FOREST BOY
#5 FRAZIL has won 10 times in his career to date in dirt sprints, takes a class drop (-9), is the pace profile leader in this field, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five outings, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+10) in his 2nd race back. Jockey Javier Castellano was in his irons for that win, back in September at Belmont park, and is here at Aqueduct today for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #8 ONECATS CHANCE, the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in three of his respective last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 5th race back.
RACE #6 - AQUEDUCT - 2:47 PM EASTERN POST
7.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE
#5 FRAZIL
#8 ONECATS CHANCE
#4 CASTAWAY
#6 FOREST BOY
#5 FRAZIL has won 10 times in his career to date in dirt sprints, takes a class drop (-9), is the pace profile leader in this field, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five outings, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+10) in his 2nd race back. Jockey Javier Castellano was in his irons for that win, back in September at Belmont park, and is here at Aqueduct today for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #8 ONECATS CHANCE, the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in three of his respective last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 5th race back.
Northfield: Wednesday 11/30 Analysis + Pick Four Ticket
By Jeremey Day
DRF
Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:
1,5/ 4 / 1,2,9 / 1,2,4,5,6 = $30
Best Bet: KARLEE SUE (9th)
Spot Play: TIMESAWASTEING (5th)
Race 1
(1) CIRO takes a significant drop in class with the best post. (3) HARD ROCK TRIXIE mare only has one win on the year but could pick up the pieces in the right scenario. (2) MASTER WHEELS is 0 for 43 on the year; use underneath.
Race 2
In a really weak field, (4) ATTACKATOOFORU is one of few who has been competitive against better on the year. (2) KISS MY YANKEE pacing mare has just been racing evenly; command a price. (1) BIG BEN'S CUTIE has some positives adding second-time lasix.
Race 3
(5) DEFENDING CHAMP lightly raced trotter is one of few in the race with some upside. (7) HOLYHOLYGUACAMOLIE is probably the fastest trotter in the race but gets sent out for a provisional pilot with an outside post. (8) ECHO'S ANNIE has a shot to beat this bunch but needs to find a way into the race.
Race 4
(3) ROMPAWAY ELVIS will offer a better price this time out. The 7-year-old should be closer turning for home. (5) SEDUCE A STRANGER drops in class against much weaker. (4) BALLAGIO HANOVER heavy morning line favorite has not shown his best in quite some time; use caution.
Race 5
(5) TIMESAWASTEING gelding makes his 2016 debut with only one lifetime start. The qualfier last week was sharp. (3) TKRS IMSEXYNINOIT has some room to improve off the qualifier as well. (1) METRO'S TWIST gets the best post in an inconsistent field.
Race 6
(5) HEZA RUBE six-year-old is the fastest trotter in the race by far when on his game. (9) ACTION-EAR-TO-EAR picks up the top driver with a better starting post. (4) HELLO CARLO twelve-year-old isn't as fast as he once was but has been competitive at this level.
Race 7
(3) ADIOS AMIGOS has been pacing faster than most of the field; short price. (6) WESTERN DIAL showed some nice potential early before going the wrong way. (2) YONDERCOMESAPONDER lightly raced 2-year-old has room to improve against a weak bunch.
Race 8
(5) JUMP THE SHARK dominated a weaker bunch last week and could be overlooked bumping up. (1) DIVULGE picks up the top driver with the best post against slightly weaker. (8) BOLD DECISION is probably best used underneath but if the pacer gets any kind of setup he can threaten.
Race 9
(4) KARLEE SUE hasn't raced her best in her last few but is do for a bounce-back effort against significantly weaker. (5) WEDNESDAYS WHIM finally gets post relief with a top driver; threat. (2) KATIE AND J rarely wins; command a price.
Race 10
In a really soft bunch, (9) D GS SUAVEMENTE might offer the best price off the contenders. (2) BIG BOSSMAN had no excuse last week quitting badly. (1) DOWN N DIRTY should have also had more getting picked off late by a suspect opponent.
Race 11
(6) SOUTHERN CAROL takes a big drop in class and looks to offer a big price. (1) SWAN LEADER raced excellent in the qualifier but could need a start off a layoff. (2) ONEEYEDMOMMA nice-looking filly has been facing better and could surprise with a smooth trip.
Race 12
(1) LOVE YOU BAD gelding is very inconsistent from week to week. A good effort puts him in the mix. (4) MOVECLOSERAGAIN owns a win and a second recently at this level. (5) HEARTLAND DESIRE was dreadful last start at this level. The pacer might have the off track as an excuse last week.
Race 13
(3) BETTOR'S DESTINY picks up a good driver change against a field full of question marks. (1) PROMISED THE MOON probably should have had a little more to offer last week but was sharp the start prior. (9) LYNARD bumps up in class off an easy win; command a price.
Race 14
(3) TASHIA has been racing better than her lines indicate. (2) D C UPRISING is just now back in racing shape off a long layoff. The pacing mare has room to improve. (5) CATCHAJOLT has just been racing evenly; needs more.
Race 15
(6) SHADOW ME THEMONEY was the driver's choice in a weak field. (5) NOAH'S SHARK has been competitive against better on the year; threat. (3) AWESTREOS benefits from the top driver but rarely wins
By Jeremey Day
DRF
Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:
1,5/ 4 / 1,2,9 / 1,2,4,5,6 = $30
Best Bet: KARLEE SUE (9th)
Spot Play: TIMESAWASTEING (5th)
Race 1
(1) CIRO takes a significant drop in class with the best post. (3) HARD ROCK TRIXIE mare only has one win on the year but could pick up the pieces in the right scenario. (2) MASTER WHEELS is 0 for 43 on the year; use underneath.
Race 2
In a really weak field, (4) ATTACKATOOFORU is one of few who has been competitive against better on the year. (2) KISS MY YANKEE pacing mare has just been racing evenly; command a price. (1) BIG BEN'S CUTIE has some positives adding second-time lasix.
Race 3
(5) DEFENDING CHAMP lightly raced trotter is one of few in the race with some upside. (7) HOLYHOLYGUACAMOLIE is probably the fastest trotter in the race but gets sent out for a provisional pilot with an outside post. (8) ECHO'S ANNIE has a shot to beat this bunch but needs to find a way into the race.
Race 4
(3) ROMPAWAY ELVIS will offer a better price this time out. The 7-year-old should be closer turning for home. (5) SEDUCE A STRANGER drops in class against much weaker. (4) BALLAGIO HANOVER heavy morning line favorite has not shown his best in quite some time; use caution.
Race 5
(5) TIMESAWASTEING gelding makes his 2016 debut with only one lifetime start. The qualfier last week was sharp. (3) TKRS IMSEXYNINOIT has some room to improve off the qualifier as well. (1) METRO'S TWIST gets the best post in an inconsistent field.
Race 6
(5) HEZA RUBE six-year-old is the fastest trotter in the race by far when on his game. (9) ACTION-EAR-TO-EAR picks up the top driver with a better starting post. (4) HELLO CARLO twelve-year-old isn't as fast as he once was but has been competitive at this level.
Race 7
(3) ADIOS AMIGOS has been pacing faster than most of the field; short price. (6) WESTERN DIAL showed some nice potential early before going the wrong way. (2) YONDERCOMESAPONDER lightly raced 2-year-old has room to improve against a weak bunch.
Race 8
(5) JUMP THE SHARK dominated a weaker bunch last week and could be overlooked bumping up. (1) DIVULGE picks up the top driver with the best post against slightly weaker. (8) BOLD DECISION is probably best used underneath but if the pacer gets any kind of setup he can threaten.
Race 9
(4) KARLEE SUE hasn't raced her best in her last few but is do for a bounce-back effort against significantly weaker. (5) WEDNESDAYS WHIM finally gets post relief with a top driver; threat. (2) KATIE AND J rarely wins; command a price.
Race 10
In a really soft bunch, (9) D GS SUAVEMENTE might offer the best price off the contenders. (2) BIG BOSSMAN had no excuse last week quitting badly. (1) DOWN N DIRTY should have also had more getting picked off late by a suspect opponent.
Race 11
(6) SOUTHERN CAROL takes a big drop in class and looks to offer a big price. (1) SWAN LEADER raced excellent in the qualifier but could need a start off a layoff. (2) ONEEYEDMOMMA nice-looking filly has been facing better and could surprise with a smooth trip.
Race 12
(1) LOVE YOU BAD gelding is very inconsistent from week to week. A good effort puts him in the mix. (4) MOVECLOSERAGAIN owns a win and a second recently at this level. (5) HEARTLAND DESIRE was dreadful last start at this level. The pacer might have the off track as an excuse last week.
Race 13
(3) BETTOR'S DESTINY picks up a good driver change against a field full of question marks. (1) PROMISED THE MOON probably should have had a little more to offer last week but was sharp the start prior. (9) LYNARD bumps up in class off an easy win; command a price.
Race 14
(3) TASHIA has been racing better than her lines indicate. (2) D C UPRISING is just now back in racing shape off a long layoff. The pacing mare has room to improve. (5) CATCHAJOLT has just been racing evenly; needs more.
Race 15
(6) SHADOW ME THEMONEY was the driver's choice in a weak field. (5) NOAH'S SHARK has been competitive against better on the year; threat. (3) AWESTREOS benefits from the top driver but rarely wins
SPOT PLAYS
For Wednesday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (2nd) Megan's Muse, 5-1
(6th) Castaway, 5-1
Charles Town (3rd) Nomorestorms, 7-2
(8th) Work Wife, 6-1
Delta Downs (1st) Home Park, 6-1
(5th) Forerun, 5-1
Finger Lakes (3rd) Cryptic Comet, 6-1
(6th) Steph Got Even, 5-1
Mahoning Valley (5th) Smokem's Charm, 7-2
(7th) Rainy Daze, 8-1
Penn National (2nd) Dukin' With Dale, 9-2
(5th) Vanidosa, 7-2
Remington Park (7th) He Knows Better, 4-1
(8th) Scat Means Go, 3-1
Tampa Bay Downs (1st) Triple Serious, 3-1
(6th) Slapjack, 5-1
Turfway Park (4th) Siyawe, 6-1
(6th) My Harlequin Man, 4-1
Woodbine (2nd) Dan the Man, 6-1
(6th) Ellan Vannin, 6-1
For Wednesday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (2nd) Megan's Muse, 5-1
(6th) Castaway, 5-1
Charles Town (3rd) Nomorestorms, 7-2
(8th) Work Wife, 6-1
Delta Downs (1st) Home Park, 6-1
(5th) Forerun, 5-1
Finger Lakes (3rd) Cryptic Comet, 6-1
(6th) Steph Got Even, 5-1
Mahoning Valley (5th) Smokem's Charm, 7-2
(7th) Rainy Daze, 8-1
Penn National (2nd) Dukin' With Dale, 9-2
(5th) Vanidosa, 7-2
Remington Park (7th) He Knows Better, 4-1
(8th) Scat Means Go, 3-1
Tampa Bay Downs (1st) Triple Serious, 3-1
(6th) Slapjack, 5-1
Turfway Park (4th) Siyawe, 6-1
(6th) My Harlequin Man, 4-1
Woodbine (2nd) Dan the Man, 6-1
(6th) Ellan Vannin, 6-1
