At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey
Gunnevera was an impressive winner of yesterday’s $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), picking up a nice paycheck and 10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points.
I made the colt my second choice thinking his 5-2 morning line price might go south, but he paid a more than fair $7.80. My third choice Hot Sean completed a recommended exacta that paid a decent $42.00.
We also had the trifecta with 18-1 Dangerfield landing third, the $1 trifecta paying $274.40.
We struggled at the Big A with the profits coming at Del Mar where I had five winners on top, paying $6.00, $16.40, $2.60, $7.60 and $6.40.
The highlight was Big Hit winning the third race at $16.40 and completing a $95.80 exacta. The day ended well with Cecile’s Diamond paying $7.60 as my top pick and topping a recommended exacta that returned $35.20 and trifecta that paid a hefty $290.30 with 40-1 longshot Miss Napper Tandy landing third.
While it was a tough go at the Big A on Saturday, on the bright side we have a $101,393 Pick 6 carryover for today as the wager went unsolved for the third straight day.
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Del Mar.
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#3 Imasuperstar 5-2
#1 Dark as Midnight 8-1
#6 Morse Code 2-1
#4 Kabang 7-2
Analysis: Imasuperstar has run second in all three of his career starts, the last two over wet tracks. Last out he set the early fractions in the mud and was no match for the 8 3/4 length winner while 3 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. His best effort came in his debut over a fast track which he will get today. He is out of a Speightstown mare that has dropped one winner.
Dark as Midnight is back on dirt here after a fourth last out going seven furlongs on turf. Two and three back this guy ran into repeat winners. His best finish came on the inner track here in his debut back in Match in a runner up finish. Her is out of the stakes winner Pretty Imposing ($276,388).
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The New York Stallion Series (3:47 ET)
#6 Empire Dreams 5-2
#7 Loki's Vengeance 4-1
#4 West Hills Giant 5-1
#1 Bust Another 3-1
Analysis: Empire Dreams was off poorly when lunging at the break last out, stalked thee early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish last out in the state bred Empire Classic in the slop going nine furlongs. The gelding makes his third start off the bench and he can handle the cut back to seven furlongs. He was a close up third in a NY Stallion Series race at this distance last November after winning the Empire Classic.
Loki's Vengeance makes his first start since July where the five-year-old checked in fifth against optional claimers in the mud. He won at NY Stallion Series race here last November at this distance. He has landed in the exacta in 4 of 6 trips over the Big A main track. The Hushion barn is 19% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
DMR Race 8 The Cary Grant (3:59 PT)
#7 Gold Rush Dancer 3-1
#6 Acceptance 7-2
#2 Magic Mark 5-2
#9 Solid Wager 6-1
Analysis: Gold Rush Dancer cuts back from a nine furlong turf route where the colt tracked the early pace and weakened to finish ninth in the Twilight Derby (G2). Three back at this distance on the main track here he won the Real Good Deal in a sharp effort. He will appreciate the surface switch and the class drop. The barn is 15% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.
Acceptance was a game winner of the California Flag last out against restricted foes going 6 1/2 downhill on turf. The colt was winning on turf for the first time in his sixth try and has shown to be better on dirt, having won three of five. He looks primed for a top effort here in his third start off the layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 6,7 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,6,7,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R5: #8 Now in a Drive 12-1
R6: #1 Wilbernmoney 12-1
R9: #3 Moonlit Cove 12-1
R9: #5 Complicit 8-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
Gunnevera was an impressive winner of yesterday’s $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), picking up a nice paycheck and 10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points.
I made the colt my second choice thinking his 5-2 morning line price might go south, but he paid a more than fair $7.80. My third choice Hot Sean completed a recommended exacta that paid a decent $42.00.
We also had the trifecta with 18-1 Dangerfield landing third, the $1 trifecta paying $274.40.
We struggled at the Big A with the profits coming at Del Mar where I had five winners on top, paying $6.00, $16.40, $2.60, $7.60 and $6.40.
The highlight was Big Hit winning the third race at $16.40 and completing a $95.80 exacta. The day ended well with Cecile’s Diamond paying $7.60 as my top pick and topping a recommended exacta that returned $35.20 and trifecta that paid a hefty $290.30 with 40-1 longshot Miss Napper Tandy landing third.
While it was a tough go at the Big A on Saturday, on the bright side we have a $101,393 Pick 6 carryover for today as the wager went unsolved for the third straight day.
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Del Mar.
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#3 Imasuperstar 5-2
#1 Dark as Midnight 8-1
#6 Morse Code 2-1
#4 Kabang 7-2
Analysis: Imasuperstar has run second in all three of his career starts, the last two over wet tracks. Last out he set the early fractions in the mud and was no match for the 8 3/4 length winner while 3 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. His best effort came in his debut over a fast track which he will get today. He is out of a Speightstown mare that has dropped one winner.
Dark as Midnight is back on dirt here after a fourth last out going seven furlongs on turf. Two and three back this guy ran into repeat winners. His best finish came on the inner track here in his debut back in Match in a runner up finish. Her is out of the stakes winner Pretty Imposing ($276,388).
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The New York Stallion Series (3:47 ET)
#6 Empire Dreams 5-2
#7 Loki's Vengeance 4-1
#4 West Hills Giant 5-1
#1 Bust Another 3-1
Analysis: Empire Dreams was off poorly when lunging at the break last out, stalked thee early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish last out in the state bred Empire Classic in the slop going nine furlongs. The gelding makes his third start off the bench and he can handle the cut back to seven furlongs. He was a close up third in a NY Stallion Series race at this distance last November after winning the Empire Classic.
Loki's Vengeance makes his first start since July where the five-year-old checked in fifth against optional claimers in the mud. He won at NY Stallion Series race here last November at this distance. He has landed in the exacta in 4 of 6 trips over the Big A main track. The Hushion barn is 19% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
DMR Race 8 The Cary Grant (3:59 PT)
#7 Gold Rush Dancer 3-1
#6 Acceptance 7-2
#2 Magic Mark 5-2
#9 Solid Wager 6-1
Analysis: Gold Rush Dancer cuts back from a nine furlong turf route where the colt tracked the early pace and weakened to finish ninth in the Twilight Derby (G2). Three back at this distance on the main track here he won the Real Good Deal in a sharp effort. He will appreciate the surface switch and the class drop. The barn is 15% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.
Acceptance was a game winner of the California Flag last out against restricted foes going 6 1/2 downhill on turf. The colt was winning on turf for the first time in his sixth try and has shown to be better on dirt, having won three of five. He looks primed for a top effort here in his third start off the layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 6,7 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,6,7,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R5: #8 Now in a Drive 12-1
R6: #1 Wilbernmoney 12-1
R9: #3 Moonlit Cove 12-1
R9: #5 Complicit 8-1
Good luck today!
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Post: 1:15 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6950 - $10,000 CLAIMING WITH ALLOWANCES FOR NON-WINNERS 6 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $30,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 6 DESERT SUNSET 3/1
# 5 P L JADE 5/2
# 9 PHILANDTHEQUEENS 8/1
The pick today is DESERT SUNSET. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 75. Should be considered for a bet in this contest. The handicapping team noted a substantial outing out of this harness racer last time. Looking for a duplicate of that to take the whole enchilada. When the trainer Rousse puts Coppola up for the drive good things happen. All you need to do is look at the 22 win percent. P L JADE - Have to make Aldrich the wager here if only for the last thirty days win clip. Big probability for the trip to the winner's circle. More than likely think these two have a good thing going. Dessureault sending the horse out means a really good chance to get the top prize. PHILANDTHEQUEENS - Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some outstanding TrackMaster SRs averaging around 76. Surely the class of the field with an average rating of 75. A nice choice.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Post: 1:15 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6950 - $10,000 CLAIMING WITH ALLOWANCES FOR NON-WINNERS 6 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $30,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 6 DESERT SUNSET 3/1
# 5 P L JADE 5/2
# 9 PHILANDTHEQUEENS 8/1
The pick today is DESERT SUNSET. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 75. Should be considered for a bet in this contest. The handicapping team noted a substantial outing out of this harness racer last time. Looking for a duplicate of that to take the whole enchilada. When the trainer Rousse puts Coppola up for the drive good things happen. All you need to do is look at the 22 win percent. P L JADE - Have to make Aldrich the wager here if only for the last thirty days win clip. Big probability for the trip to the winner's circle. More than likely think these two have a good thing going. Dessureault sending the horse out means a really good chance to get the top prize. PHILANDTHEQUEENS - Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some outstanding TrackMaster SRs averaging around 76. Surely the class of the field with an average rating of 75. A nice choice.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Post: 12:10 - 1 1/4 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$18800 - NON-WINNERS OF $10,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $60,000 IN 2016 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $20,000 AE. 3& 4 YEAR OLD NON-WINNERS OF $100,000 LIFETIME. NOS. 9,10 START FROM 2ND TIER #9 VEGLIANTINO & #10 DREAM ROCKER WILL START FROM THE 2ND TIER.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 2 SUMATRA 3/1
# 5 SOUL TRAIN 9/1
# 4 NORTHERN OBSESSION 6/1
SUMATRA is the most solid wager in this contest. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 90 speed rating. Has a strong shot for this one, if he can repeat his back racing class. The 2 position sports a better than expected win percent at Yonkers Raceway. SOUL TRAIN - Take a long look at making this horse your win wager based on well above average win percent alone. A nice class horse can't be glossed over. With an avg class figure of 89 all signs point to this one being the winner. NORTHERN OBSESSION - That 91 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the last competition puts this race horse in the mix in this contest. Driver-trainer are a potent duet when teaming up on a common fine animal. 12 percent ROI within the recent past.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Post: 12:10 - 1 1/4 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$18800 - NON-WINNERS OF $10,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $60,000 IN 2016 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $20,000 AE. 3& 4 YEAR OLD NON-WINNERS OF $100,000 LIFETIME. NOS. 9,10 START FROM 2ND TIER #9 VEGLIANTINO & #10 DREAM ROCKER WILL START FROM THE 2ND TIER.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 2 SUMATRA 3/1
# 5 SOUL TRAIN 9/1
# 4 NORTHERN OBSESSION 6/1
SUMATRA is the most solid wager in this contest. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 90 speed rating. Has a strong shot for this one, if he can repeat his back racing class. The 2 position sports a better than expected win percent at Yonkers Raceway. SOUL TRAIN - Take a long look at making this horse your win wager based on well above average win percent alone. A nice class horse can't be glossed over. With an avg class figure of 89 all signs point to this one being the winner. NORTHERN OBSESSION - That 91 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the last competition puts this race horse in the mix in this contest. Driver-trainer are a potent duet when teaming up on a common fine animal. 12 percent ROI within the recent past.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 93
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TRANSFERRED TO THE MAIN TRACK, AND IF IT HAS MORE THAN TEN ENTRANTS, THE DISTANCE WILL BE ONE MILE AND ONE-SIXTEENTH.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 7 JOHNNIE B 6/1
# 6 ULTRA FAME 6/1
# 10 JAYHAWKER 4/1
JOHNNIE B looks to be a respectable contender. He has garnered very strong numbers under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. Is a key contender - given the 92 speed figure from his most recent race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. ULTRA FAME - Shows reliable speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses in this race. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest. JAYHAWKER - I would give the nod to this gelding on the jock and handler numbers alone. With Cedillo aboard him, this gelding should be able to break out early in this race.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 93
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TRANSFERRED TO THE MAIN TRACK, AND IF IT HAS MORE THAN TEN ENTRANTS, THE DISTANCE WILL BE ONE MILE AND ONE-SIXTEENTH.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 7 JOHNNIE B 6/1
# 6 ULTRA FAME 6/1
# 10 JAYHAWKER 4/1
JOHNNIE B looks to be a respectable contender. He has garnered very strong numbers under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. Is a key contender - given the 92 speed figure from his most recent race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. ULTRA FAME - Shows reliable speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses in this race. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest. JAYHAWKER - I would give the nod to this gelding on the jock and handler numbers alone. With Cedillo aboard him, this gelding should be able to break out early in this race.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 87
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 5 MOVE OVER 8/1
# 10 MACHITO 5/1
# 4 RUNAWAY PEPPER 4/1
MOVE OVER is my choice and is a formidable value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Seems to have a quite good class edge based on the recent company kept. MACHITO - Could beat this group given the 83 speed figure recorded in his last outing. Have to assume this one will make a good showing following the quick major improvement. RUNAWAY PEPPER - Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been very good - 83 avg - of late. Should be carefully examined here if only for the very good speed rating recorded in the last contest.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 87
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 5 MOVE OVER 8/1
# 10 MACHITO 5/1
# 4 RUNAWAY PEPPER 4/1
MOVE OVER is my choice and is a formidable value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Seems to have a quite good class edge based on the recent company kept. MACHITO - Could beat this group given the 83 speed figure recorded in his last outing. Have to assume this one will make a good showing following the quick major improvement. RUNAWAY PEPPER - Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been very good - 83 avg - of late. Should be carefully examined here if only for the very good speed rating recorded in the last contest.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,600 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#8 RANCHO VIEJO (ML=9/2)
#9 DANCING LION (ML=4/1)
#6 RIGHTEOUS PLACE (ML=6/1)
RANCHO VIEJO - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. I really like sprinters that make a fast turnaround. This gelding is in fine condition, having run a good race on Nov 9th, finishing second. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the ability to make his presence felt. DANCING LION - This gelding is in fine physical condition. Ended up first on Oct 29th. This animal brings in a lot of money per start. Number one in this contest. RIGHTEOUS PLACE - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a strong outing last time out within the last thirty days. While the finish was disappointing, this beautiful animal made a good stretch move in the last race at Mountaineer Park. Expect better in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ZA WOODMAN (ML=7/5), #7 JO DANCER (ML=8/1),
ZA WOODMAN - This morning-line favorite hasn't raced or worked at the track in awhile. No works since last race. JO DANCER - Hard to back any animal with deteriorating speed ratings of 79/66/63. This horse notched a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #8 RANCHO VIEJO on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,600 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#8 RANCHO VIEJO (ML=9/2)
#9 DANCING LION (ML=4/1)
#6 RIGHTEOUS PLACE (ML=6/1)
RANCHO VIEJO - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. I really like sprinters that make a fast turnaround. This gelding is in fine condition, having run a good race on Nov 9th, finishing second. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the ability to make his presence felt. DANCING LION - This gelding is in fine physical condition. Ended up first on Oct 29th. This animal brings in a lot of money per start. Number one in this contest. RIGHTEOUS PLACE - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a strong outing last time out within the last thirty days. While the finish was disappointing, this beautiful animal made a good stretch move in the last race at Mountaineer Park. Expect better in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ZA WOODMAN (ML=7/5), #7 JO DANCER (ML=8/1),
ZA WOODMAN - This morning-line favorite hasn't raced or worked at the track in awhile. No works since last race. JO DANCER - Hard to back any animal with deteriorating speed ratings of 79/66/63. This horse notched a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #8 RANCHO VIEJO on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 75
Rating:
#2 FORGED SIGNATURE (ML=8/1)
#3 PARADE FLOAT (ML=5/1)
#7 ILLUSION'S RULE (ML=6/1)
FORGED SIGNATURE - This gelding should give a good account of himself in today's race. PARADE FLOAT - You'll be making money right and left by turning your cash onto this rider/conditioner combination. This animal didn't run well on the mud in his last start at Indiana Downs. You probably should throw out that showing. ILLUSION'S RULE - This rider and trainer have a lucrative ROI when they team up. Faced tougher last time out at Churchill Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of probable winners in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SCISSORS AND TAPE (ML=9/5), #9 STORY ONTHE STREET (ML=5/1), #6 MICHAEL (ML=6/1),
SCISSORS AND TAPE - The Equibase speed figures continue to drop, 85/77/59. Not a healthy indication. Finished eleventh in his most recent race with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. STORY ONTHE STREET - Ran well to finish first on October 28th, but hasn't had nary a single morning drill since then. He only beat a maiden claiming field in the last clash. Have to pass on this thoroughbred versus winners for now. MICHAEL - This gelding finished off the board on September 29th and wasn't close to victory last out either.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 FORGED SIGNATURE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 75
Rating:
#2 FORGED SIGNATURE (ML=8/1)
#3 PARADE FLOAT (ML=5/1)
#7 ILLUSION'S RULE (ML=6/1)
FORGED SIGNATURE - This gelding should give a good account of himself in today's race. PARADE FLOAT - You'll be making money right and left by turning your cash onto this rider/conditioner combination. This animal didn't run well on the mud in his last start at Indiana Downs. You probably should throw out that showing. ILLUSION'S RULE - This rider and trainer have a lucrative ROI when they team up. Faced tougher last time out at Churchill Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of probable winners in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SCISSORS AND TAPE (ML=9/5), #9 STORY ONTHE STREET (ML=5/1), #6 MICHAEL (ML=6/1),
SCISSORS AND TAPE - The Equibase speed figures continue to drop, 85/77/59. Not a healthy indication. Finished eleventh in his most recent race with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. STORY ONTHE STREET - Ran well to finish first on October 28th, but hasn't had nary a single morning drill since then. He only beat a maiden claiming field in the last clash. Have to pass on this thoroughbred versus winners for now. MICHAEL - This gelding finished off the board on September 29th and wasn't close to victory last out either.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 FORGED SIGNATURE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST
New York Stallion Stakes - Thunder Rumble Division
#6 EMPIRE DREAMS
#7 LOKI'S VENGEANCE
#1 BUST ANOTHER
#2 CLOUD CONTROL
The New York Stallion Series was created by the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. The Thunder Rumble is named for the colt who in 1992 became the first New York-bred to win the Travers. He was described as a "sensation at Saratoga" for his wins in the Jim Dandy, Travers, and Saratoga Cup Handicap. Here in the 10th running of The Rumble ... #6 EMPIRE DREAMS takes a class drop (-9), is the overall speed leader, and has hit the board in each of his last five outings, with four of those "board hit efforts," including wins in both his 3rd and 5th races back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." #7 LOKI'S VENGEANCE, a 4-1 shot, has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, hitting the board in four, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.
RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST
New York Stallion Stakes - Thunder Rumble Division
#6 EMPIRE DREAMS
#7 LOKI'S VENGEANCE
#1 BUST ANOTHER
#2 CLOUD CONTROL
The New York Stallion Series was created by the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. The Thunder Rumble is named for the colt who in 1992 became the first New York-bred to win the Travers. He was described as a "sensation at Saratoga" for his wins in the Jim Dandy, Travers, and Saratoga Cup Handicap. Here in the 10th running of The Rumble ... #6 EMPIRE DREAMS takes a class drop (-9), is the overall speed leader, and has hit the board in each of his last five outings, with four of those "board hit efforts," including wins in both his 3rd and 5th races back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." #7 LOKI'S VENGEANCE, a 4-1 shot, has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, hitting the board in four, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.
Yonkers: Sunday 11/20 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 410 - 1182 / $2,223.50
BEST BETS: 54 - 96 / $177.40
Best Bet: ITS A GOOD THING (8th)
Spot Play: SIM BROWN (5th)
Race 1
(7) HEMI SEELSTER dominated last week and looked like he could have gone around five more times; Milici trainee will be moving early and gets the call to topple the mighty (8) BEE A MAGICIAN. The latter has come back from injury strong and should be very fresh this late in the season with only six starts on the year. (10) DOT DOT DOT DASH gets Kakaley back in the bike and could be a closing threat at a price.
Race 2
(6) SWISHNFLICK was driver MacDonald's choice of four in here and they teamed up to win at this level and this distance three back. (2) BINGO QUEEN closed strongly once shaking free and just missed last week; mare is always a threat when she minds her manners. (10) ZORGWIJK NOVA looks for three straight but she'll have to work a bit harder moving to the lead from the second tier.
Race 3
(2) SUMATRA raced well to secure second after leaving for a seat from the outside post last week; from the inside draw he should be in line for a perfect trip today. (3) BENTLEY SPUR has been on quite a roll but arguably faces tougher here despite racing for less money. (5) SOUL TRAIN has shown renewed vigor recently; threat.
Race 4
(4) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT trotted evenly for a board spot versus better last out and a silimar effort would make him tough in here. (5) LO RAIL CROSSING was a sharp winner off the Banca claim and Bartlett sticks with him. (6) WENDY'S GIRL has raced well in her last two for Burke, including last week's runner-up effort at a big price.
Race 5
(4) SIM BROWN goes second start for new connections and raced decently last week; he picks up leading driver Bartlett today. (3) MOVEMENT was reclaimed by Laterza and picked up another win last week; trotter is razor-sharp and can clearly take another. (1) YOZHIK is lightly raced but has flashed ability on occasion.
Race 6
(5) WELL CONNECTED KID ships in and debuts for Milici while luring Bartlett off three other horses; trotter has raced well here in the past. (2) DREAMSTEELER closed strongly inside last week to win and can certainly repeat. (1) EMPIRE EARL makes his fourth U.S. start and may have more to offer.
Race 7
(3) JOSIE'S JOY ships from the midwest for the Lorentzon barn and that angle has worked in the past. (1) KLM EXPRESS has a lot of mileage on him but he's still competitive. (4) MASSIVE TALENT has raced reasonably well for board spots in his last three.
Race 8
(2) ITS A GOOD THING is back at the basement claiming level where he was an open-lengths winner two back. (8) ADDWATER goes for another new barn and he's been sharp in all recent; only problem here is the post. (5) ETHAN HANOVER is making his third start off the layoff and he's got some back class.
Race 9
(1) INVICTUS HANOVER takes a drop in class despite racing well with better and he looms large from the best post. (4) GRIN FOR MONEY jogged in two starts since shipping from Canada and joining the Milici barn. (3) HIGH JOLTAGE has been racing well but Dube opted off.
Race 10
(3) SPINARAMA has back class and I like the switch to Bartlett. (1) LAUXMONT CAPRI returns from upstate and he's raced well here in the past. (8) BEST SAID is stuck with the worst post but he's got solid early speed which could get him into play.
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 410 - 1182 / $2,223.50
BEST BETS: 54 - 96 / $177.40
Best Bet: ITS A GOOD THING (8th)
Spot Play: SIM BROWN (5th)
Race 1
(7) HEMI SEELSTER dominated last week and looked like he could have gone around five more times; Milici trainee will be moving early and gets the call to topple the mighty (8) BEE A MAGICIAN. The latter has come back from injury strong and should be very fresh this late in the season with only six starts on the year. (10) DOT DOT DOT DASH gets Kakaley back in the bike and could be a closing threat at a price.
Race 2
(6) SWISHNFLICK was driver MacDonald's choice of four in here and they teamed up to win at this level and this distance three back. (2) BINGO QUEEN closed strongly once shaking free and just missed last week; mare is always a threat when she minds her manners. (10) ZORGWIJK NOVA looks for three straight but she'll have to work a bit harder moving to the lead from the second tier.
Race 3
(2) SUMATRA raced well to secure second after leaving for a seat from the outside post last week; from the inside draw he should be in line for a perfect trip today. (3) BENTLEY SPUR has been on quite a roll but arguably faces tougher here despite racing for less money. (5) SOUL TRAIN has shown renewed vigor recently; threat.
Race 4
(4) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT trotted evenly for a board spot versus better last out and a silimar effort would make him tough in here. (5) LO RAIL CROSSING was a sharp winner off the Banca claim and Bartlett sticks with him. (6) WENDY'S GIRL has raced well in her last two for Burke, including last week's runner-up effort at a big price.
Race 5
(4) SIM BROWN goes second start for new connections and raced decently last week; he picks up leading driver Bartlett today. (3) MOVEMENT was reclaimed by Laterza and picked up another win last week; trotter is razor-sharp and can clearly take another. (1) YOZHIK is lightly raced but has flashed ability on occasion.
Race 6
(5) WELL CONNECTED KID ships in and debuts for Milici while luring Bartlett off three other horses; trotter has raced well here in the past. (2) DREAMSTEELER closed strongly inside last week to win and can certainly repeat. (1) EMPIRE EARL makes his fourth U.S. start and may have more to offer.
Race 7
(3) JOSIE'S JOY ships from the midwest for the Lorentzon barn and that angle has worked in the past. (1) KLM EXPRESS has a lot of mileage on him but he's still competitive. (4) MASSIVE TALENT has raced reasonably well for board spots in his last three.
Race 8
(2) ITS A GOOD THING is back at the basement claiming level where he was an open-lengths winner two back. (8) ADDWATER goes for another new barn and he's been sharp in all recent; only problem here is the post. (5) ETHAN HANOVER is making his third start off the layoff and he's got some back class.
Race 9
(1) INVICTUS HANOVER takes a drop in class despite racing well with better and he looms large from the best post. (4) GRIN FOR MONEY jogged in two starts since shipping from Canada and joining the Milici barn. (3) HIGH JOLTAGE has been racing well but Dube opted off.
Race 10
(3) SPINARAMA has back class and I like the switch to Bartlett. (1) LAUXMONT CAPRI returns from upstate and he's raced well here in the past. (8) BEST SAID is stuck with the worst post but he's got solid early speed which could get him into play.
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (3rd) Caledonian, 5-1
(9th) Divine Miss Grey, 4-1
Churchill Downs (1st) Ultra Arumba, 7-2
(9th) Modify, 6-1
Del Mar (1st) Queenofhercastle, 4-1
(7th) Bolitar, 6-1
Fair Grounds (1st) Run Away Ralph, 9-2
(6th) Ukuru, 6-1
Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Pretty Emma, 4-1
(9th) Ultra Fame, 6-1
Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Joey Six Pick, 3-1
(10th) Caddy Cat, 7-2
Laurel (3rd) Finito, 5-1
(9th) Faze the Nation, 9-2
Mountaineer (4th) Amanda Marie, 5-1
(9th) Chance of Reign, 7-2
Parx Racing (1st) Far Out West, 7-2
(9th) Cinco Zippy, 7-2
Turf Paradise (6th) Bear Famous Trip, 6-1
(7th) Rallydownthealley, 7-2
Woodbine (4th) Leading Wild, 10-1
(9th) Unseen Angels, 3-1
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (3rd) Caledonian, 5-1
(9th) Divine Miss Grey, 4-1
Churchill Downs (1st) Ultra Arumba, 7-2
(9th) Modify, 6-1
Del Mar (1st) Queenofhercastle, 4-1
(7th) Bolitar, 6-1
Fair Grounds (1st) Run Away Ralph, 9-2
(6th) Ukuru, 6-1
Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Pretty Emma, 4-1
(9th) Ultra Fame, 6-1
Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Joey Six Pick, 3-1
(10th) Caddy Cat, 7-2
Laurel (3rd) Finito, 5-1
(9th) Faze the Nation, 9-2
Mountaineer (4th) Amanda Marie, 5-1
(9th) Chance of Reign, 7-2
Parx Racing (1st) Far Out West, 7-2
(9th) Cinco Zippy, 7-2
Turf Paradise (6th) Bear Famous Trip, 6-1
(7th) Rallydownthealley, 7-2
Woodbine (4th) Leading Wild, 10-1
(9th) Unseen Angels, 3-1
