Horse Racing 11-19-16

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a really good Saturday afternoon of playing the ponies on tap, with the feature being the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The Jackpot is the anchor leg of an all stakes Pick 4 at Delta Downs with a $200,000 guarantee (which surely will go over, so tracks just stop it with the stupid “guarantees” which basically mean nothing of value to us).

What is of value is the fact that the takeout for the Pick 4 is just 12%, which I believe is the lowest takeout for a Pick 4 wager in the U.S., making it a great value wager. Toss in the fact we have four competitive fields, and it should pay very well.

I included all four legs of the Pick 4 in my Best Plays Report which also includes my strongest plays from Aqueduct and Del Mar.

The Pick 4 sequence starts with the fourth race, which is the $250,000 Delta Mile that drew a field of seven. Great Minds is the 5-2 morning line favorite but Rise Up (4-1) looms a danger to take the field gate to wire.

The $75,000 Sam’s Town drew a dozen going seven furlongs. The truth or Else looks like a legit favorite and is 9-5 on the morning line.

The $400,000 Delta Downs Princess (G3) drew a competitive field of 10 juvenile fillies that will go one mile. This is a very tricky race and one where I may end up going deep on my Pick 4 ticket.

The Delta Jackpot is not an easy puzzle to solver either. As you can see below I landed on Our Stormin Norman, who earned a solid number breaking his maiden and with just two dirt starts under his belt looks as if he still has some upside.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#2 Guick 5-1
#7 Sicilia Mike 7-5
#3 Disavow 4-1
#9 Nutzforboltz 8-1

Analysis: Guick tracked the early pace while down along a deep rail and faded to finish ninth in his debut, sent off at 9-2 in a field of 12. He figures to move forward with race under his belt and this is not a real tough looking group of state breds he runs into here. The Englehart barn is 15% winners with second out maidens. Decent value if he goes off near his 5-1 morning line. He is out of a Gold Token mare that has dropped one other foal to race, no winners to date.

Sicilia Mike was a good second at 25-1 in his debut and showed that was no fluke with another good effort in a runner up finish last out at 5-2. His last pair of speed figs are tops in here and he is the obvious one to beat but his price is going to be on the short side. By Girolamo out of a Tiznow mare, her first foal to race.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 2,7 / 2,3,7,9 / 2,3,5,7,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Arie Schiller (3:47 ET)
#8 Night Prowler 6-1
#1 Jay Gatsby 5-2
#5 Blacktype 5-1
#10 Heart to Heart 3-1

Analysis: Night Prowler looks primed for a top effort here in his third start off the layoff for the Chad Brown barn. Last year this guy won the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland and missed in the Penn Mile (G3) in a photo. He was a good looking winner last out against optional claimers in his second start off the bench, earning a career top speed fig. He should get a good tracking trip from mid pack behind what could be a sharp early pace. The 6-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Jay Gatsby tracked the early pace and finished gamely for the runner up spot last out in the Knickerbocker (G3) at nine furlongs, beaten a half-length by Heart to Heart. The Jerkens trainee was beaten in photos two and three back at 1 1/16 miles and the cut back here to a mile should suit him.

Blacktype was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and came with a mild late rally to finish third in the Knickerbocker. He won the Commonwealth Turf Cup (G2) two back at a mile at Laurel Park and has earned four straight triple digit Beyers. His best puts him in the mix and he may end up getting overlooked on the tote.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,5,8,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,5,8,10 / 1,2,5,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Delta Downs:

DED Race 7 The Delta Downs Jackpot G3 (4:45 CT)
#4 Our Stormin Norman 8-1
#6 Gunnevera 5-2
#8 Hot Sean 7-2
#10 Tip Tap Tapizar 10-1

Analysis: Our Stormin Norman took the field gate to wire to break his maiden last out at Keeneland in his fifth career start. Just one runner has come out of that race to run back, fifth place finisher Creative Courage ran second beaten a neck at Churchill Downs in his next outing. The colt showed some promise with a runner up finish in his debut on dirt at Churchill Downs, but then his trainer Mark Casse tried him on turf in his next three starts, a third at the Spa his best finish. The switch back to dirt has suited him and the $250,000 purchase is bred to be pretty good on dirt. He is by Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame out of the stakes winner Stroll By ($42,340) who was a dirt sprinter. The colt owns the top last out speed fig and gets a class test here he may be up to.

Gunnevera is the lone graded stakes winner in the field, taking the Saratoga Special (G2) in August. The colt returned in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland for his first go around two turns, was off last and was not much of a threat in a fifth-place finish, beaten 6 ¾ lengths for the top spot. The winner Classic Empire came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his next outing at Santa Anita. He reunites with Castellano who was aboard for his win two back. He is the logical one to beat but his price may end up on the light side.

Hot Sean ships in for the west coast for the Bob Baffert barn. The colt broke his maiden in his second career start at 6 ½ furlongs and he beat Alw-1 foes last out of the stretch out to a mile. The early fractions in his win last out where slow but the rack was playing slow that day. The colt was a $550,000 Keeneland purchase and a half to a couple of stakes winners, top earner Itsaknockout ($398,010).

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,6,8,10
TRI: 4,6 / 4,6,8,10 / 2,4,5,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 8 OClm $100,000C (4:00 PT)
#8 Wanstead Gardens 5-1
#9 Perfectly Majestic 5-1
#7 Itsinthepost 3-1
#5 Atomic Rule 4-1

Analysis: Wanstead Gardens stalked the early pace and could not make up any ground late in a seventh-place finish in the John Henry (G3), beaten three lengths for the top spot. He has won 3 of 7 over the turf here including beating optional claimers here three back at nine furlongs. He gets some class relief and looks like a good fit in this spot and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Perfectly Majestic made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out in the restricted Lure at Santa Anita last out going a mile. The gelding has won twice over the turf here but is not proven at nine furlongs. He runs consistent numbers over his last five starts including a neck loss at Kentucky Downs three back in the restricted Old Friend at 1 mile and 70 yards. He should get some pace to run at and it sure looks as if he has been finishing up well enough he should be able to handle the extra ground at this level.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 5,7,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 5,7,8,9 / 2,5,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #9 Nutzforboltz 8-1
R2: #6 It’s a Given 8-1
R3: #5 T Loves a Fight 8-1
R4: #3 Cause of the Royal 10-1
R5: #6 La Cat Warrior 12-1
R7: #5 true Timber 8-1
R9: #1 Puppy Manners 8-1
R9: #9 Regulus 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a really good Saturday afternoon of playing the ponies on tap, with the feature being the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The Jackpot is the anchor leg of an all stakes Pick 4 at Delta Downs with a $200,000 guarantee (which surely will go over, so tracks just stop it with the stupid “guarantees” which basically mean nothing of value to us).

What is of value is the fact that the takeout for the Pick 4 is just 12%, which I believe is the lowest takeout for a Pick 4 wager in the U.S., making it a great value wager. Toss in the fact we have four competitive fields, and it should pay very well.

I included all four legs of the Pick 4 in my Best Plays Report which also includes my strongest plays from Aqueduct and Del Mar.

The Pick 4 sequence starts with the fourth race, which is the $250,000 Delta Mile that drew a field of seven. Great Minds is the 5-2 morning line favorite but Rise Up (4-1) looms a danger to take the field gate to wire.

The $75,000 Sam’s Town drew a dozen going seven furlongs. The truth or Else looks like a legit favorite and is 9-5 on the morning line.

The $400,000 Delta Downs Princess (G3) drew a competitive field of 10 juvenile fillies that will go one mile. This is a very tricky race and one where I may end up going deep on my Pick 4 ticket.

The Delta Jackpot is not an easy puzzle to solver either. As you can see below I landed on Our Stormin Norman, who earned a solid number breaking his maiden and with just two dirt starts under his belt looks as if he still has some upside.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#2 Guick 5-1
#7 Sicilia Mike 7-5
#3 Disavow 4-1
#9 Nutzforboltz 8-1

Analysis: Guick tracked the early pace while down along a deep rail and faded to finish ninth in his debut, sent off at 9-2 in a field of 12. He figures to move forward with race under his belt and this is not a real tough looking group of state breds he runs into here. The Englehart barn is 15% winners with second out maidens. Decent value if he goes off near his 5-1 morning line. He is out of a Gold Token mare that has dropped one other foal to race, no winners to date.

Sicilia Mike was a good second at 25-1 in his debut and showed that was no fluke with another good effort in a runner up finish last out at 5-2. His last pair of speed figs are tops in here and he is the obvious one to beat but his price is going to be on the short side. By Girolamo out of a Tiznow mare, her first foal to race.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 2,7 / 2,3,7,9 / 2,3,5,7,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Arie Schiller (3:47 ET)
#8 Night Prowler 6-1
#1 Jay Gatsby 5-2
#5 Blacktype 5-1
#10 Heart to Heart 3-1

Analysis: Night Prowler looks primed for a top effort here in his third start off the layoff for the Chad Brown barn. Last year this guy won the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland and missed in the Penn Mile (G3) in a photo. He was a good looking winner last out against optional claimers in his second start off the bench, earning a career top speed fig. He should get a good tracking trip from mid pack behind what could be a sharp early pace. The 6-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Jay Gatsby tracked the early pace and finished gamely for the runner up spot last out in the Knickerbocker (G3) at nine furlongs, beaten a half-length by Heart to Heart. The Jerkens trainee was beaten in photos two and three back at 1 1/16 miles and the cut back here to a mile should suit him.

Blacktype was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and came with a mild late rally to finish third in the Knickerbocker. He won the Commonwealth Turf Cup (G2) two back at a mile at Laurel Park and has earned four straight triple digit Beyers. His best puts him in the mix and he may end up getting overlooked on the tote.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,5,8,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,5,8,10 / 1,2,5,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Delta Downs:

DED Race 7 The Delta Downs Jackpot G3 (4:45 CT)
#4 Our Stormin Norman 8-1
#6 Gunnevera 5-2
#8 Hot Sean 7-2
#10 Tip Tap Tapizar 10-1

Analysis: Our Stormin Norman took the field gate to wire to break his maiden last out at Keeneland in his fifth career start. Just one runner has come out of that race to run back, fifth place finisher Creative Courage ran second beaten a neck at Churchill Downs in his next outing. The colt showed some promise with a runner up finish in his debut on dirt at Churchill Downs, but then his trainer Mark Casse tried him on turf in his next three starts, a third at the Spa his best finish. The switch back to dirt has suited him and the $250,000 purchase is bred to be pretty good on dirt. He is by Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame out of the stakes winner Stroll By ($42,340) who was a dirt sprinter. The colt owns the top last out speed fig and gets a class test here he may be up to.

Gunnevera is the lone graded stakes winner in the field, taking the Saratoga Special (G2) in August. The colt returned in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland for his first go around two turns, was off last and was not much of a threat in a fifth-place finish, beaten 6 ¾ lengths for the top spot. The winner Classic Empire came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his next outing at Santa Anita. He reunites with Castellano who was aboard for his win two back. He is the logical one to beat but his price may end up on the light side.

Hot Sean ships in for the west coast for the Bob Baffert barn. The colt broke his maiden in his second career start at 6 ½ furlongs and he beat Alw-1 foes last out of the stretch out to a mile. The early fractions in his win last out where slow but the rack was playing slow that day. The colt was a $550,000 Keeneland purchase and a half to a couple of stakes winners, top earner Itsaknockout ($398,010).

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,6,8,10
TRI: 4,6 / 4,6,8,10 / 2,4,5,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 8 OClm $100,000C (4:00 PT)
#8 Wanstead Gardens 5-1
#9 Perfectly Majestic 5-1
#7 Itsinthepost 3-1
#5 Atomic Rule 4-1

Analysis: Wanstead Gardens stalked the early pace and could not make up any ground late in a seventh-place finish in the John Henry (G3), beaten three lengths for the top spot. He has won 3 of 7 over the turf here including beating optional claimers here three back at nine furlongs. He gets some class relief and looks like a good fit in this spot and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Perfectly Majestic made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out in the restricted Lure at Santa Anita last out going a mile. The gelding has won twice over the turf here but is not proven at nine furlongs. He runs consistent numbers over his last five starts including a neck loss at Kentucky Downs three back in the restricted Old Friend at 1 mile and 70 yards. He should get some pace to run at and it sure looks as if he has been finishing up well enough he should be able to handle the extra ground at this level.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 5,7,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 5,7,8,9 / 2,5,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #9 Nutzforboltz 8-1
R2: #6 It’s a Given 8-1
R3: #5 T Loves a Fight 8-1
R4: #3 Cause of the Royal 10-1
R5: #6 La Cat Warrior 12-1
R7: #5 true Timber 8-1
R9: #1 Puppy Manners 8-1
R9: #9 Regulus 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Post: 6:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$10000 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS $8000 IN LAST 5 STARTS. AE: CLAIMING $15,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 JAKARDEZ 8/1
# 2 IDA SOFIA 6/1
# 3 DREAM BALL 6/5

JAKARDEZ is the strongest bet in this outing and could score at a price in here. Could definitely take this group given the 86 speed rating earned in her last affair. IDA SOFIA - Worth thinking about here based on the ratings in the speed rating department alone. Comes into this affair with very good TrackMaster class stats as compared to the group - take a good look. DREAM BALL - Sometimes you just have to go with good feelings, lean toward this one's chances. That 83 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent contest puts this solid standardbred in the mix in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6020 Class Rating: 38

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 118 LBS. ALLOWED 1 LBS. ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 GLORIA DE ALABANZA 15/1

# 5 GRAN ISABELLA 8/5

# 3 ENCAPUCHADO 3/1

GLORIA DE ALABANZA is my selection and is a strong value bet given the line at 15/1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $250000 Class Rating: 111

FRANK J. DE FRANCIS MEMORIAL DASH S. - GRADE 3 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY FREE SUBSCRIPTION. $1250 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. $1250 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $250,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO SIXTH. WEIGHTS: THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 122 LBS., OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $150,000 TWICE IN 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS.;


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 STALLWALKIN' DUDE 5/2

# 8 X Y JET 9/5

# 4 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY 6/1

STALLWALKIN' DUDE has a very good shot to take this race. Has been consistently racing well as of late. Has solid Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. Is a solid contender based on numbers earned lately under today's conditions. X Y JET - Has to be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a major improvement for this gelding. WEEKEND HIDEAWAY - Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figs of this group of horses in his last race. Has to be considered a definite contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 12 - Post: 11:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$14000 - NW $6,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 CHAMPAGNE PHIL 4/1
# 8 BIGTOWN HERO 3/1
# 4 SPINFINITI 10/1

Feel pretty confident putting money down on CHAMPAGNE PHIL. The knowledge group knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice win. With a really good 88 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Post 6 has been winning at a much better than average percentage, suggesting nice probability of success in this race. BIGTOWN HERO - A really strong class horse can't be overlooked. With an average class rating of 91 all signs say it's go time. Looks like a strong selection in this group of horses and his successful winning percentage says he has the determination to score in this one. SPINFINITI - This fine animal may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST

The Artie Schiller Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#10 HEART TO HEART
#1 JAY GATSBY
#14 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY
#5 BLACKTYPE

This race honors the racing career of Artie Schiller, a turf specialist, who was purchased and raced by William Entenmann of Timber Bay Farm and his daughter Denise Walsh, and was named after Entenmann's childhood friend. He was conditioned for racing by Jimmy Jerkens. At age two the colt won two of his five starts then at age three won five of eight outings including the Jamaica Handicap in which he set a new Belmont Park course record for nine furlongs. At Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie, Texas, he was sent off as the betting favorite for the 2004 Breeders' Cup Mile but finished twelfth in the fourteen-horse field.
Racing at age four, Artie Schiller had his best earnings year and most important career win. After winning the 2005 Maker's Mark Mile Stakes and the Bernard Baruch Handicap, he was sent to Belmont Park where under jockey Garrett Gomez he won the Breeders' Cup Mile, defeating runnerup Leroidesanimaux by nearly two lengths. At age five, he made three starts without a win but earned a second in the 2006 Maker's Mark Mile Stakes and a third in the Dixie Stakes. Here in just the 2nd running of "The Schiller" ... #10 HEART TO HEART has won more than half of his 13 starts to date, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in four, including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Irad Ortiz has been in his irons on just one previous occasion, posting a win, en route to a +345% return on investment in the process, and is back today here in Ozone Park for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #1 JAY GATSBY qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#8 AREED (ML=7/2)
#3 OTIS MY MAN (ML=15/1)


AREED - The way this race sets up this gelding will be in perfect position when they enter the stretch. This gelding is certainly on the improve with speed figures of 66, 79, 86 last 3 out. OTIS MY MAN - This horse should be rumbling down the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JIFQUICK (ML=5/2), #6 MAGNUM FORCE (ML=7/2), #5 GENERAL ELECTION (ML=5/1),

JIFQUICK - This gelding hasn't had any recent success in short distance affairs. Difficult to bet on him in this event. MAGNUM FORCE - You always figure that this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he falters most of the time. Will be tough for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. GENERAL ELECTION - Tough to wager on any questionable contender in a sprint race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple of months.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 AREED to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 39 - 101 / $167.00 (-$35.00)

BEST BETS: 5 - 8 / $11.80 (-$4.20)

Best Bet: PIER HO TEMPTATION (9th)

Spot Play: BORN TO FIGHT (3rd)


Race 1

(3) SANTIAGO STYLE gets written into this Non-winners of 2 race on the merits of having won seven races for purses under $2,600. It will be interesting to see how he handles the stretch out to the mile track. (4) COOL BREEZE DE VIE has been on a solid run at Monticello and should fit with this group. (1) TALENT SOUP comes off a win at Pocono in decent time for a barn that seems to be heating up slightly.

Race 2

(5) DOUBLE A CASH HALL ships in from Hoosier where he was facing some strong company including Rose Run Parker, who rolled the dice in the Open ranks on the east coast earlier in the year. This seems like a winnable spot. (2) WAITING ON A WOMAN tired on the lead last time but showed more form than in previous weeks. He could be ready to turn things around. (6) ROCK CASHEL is very consistent but I’d need a double-digit price to back him on the win end in this group.

Race 3

(4) BORN TO FIGHT was poised to pounce in the pocket last time at Pocono when he ran up on the leader and made a break. This is far from a strong bunch and he should be sitting close to the front. (8) SHEER FLEX gets class relief and has won at The Meadowlands in the past; dangerous. (1) WILD SMILE was facing tougher at Yonkers and does get sent out by Daley this week.

Race 4

(1) GAMBLER’S TALE never got involved last week but turned in a solid effort in one of these preliminary Dash for the G Notes events two starts back. In a field without a standout, he can take charge. (6) BULLVILLE KYLE showed some late life last time and does own a 1:51 win here this year. (8) CARD SHOCK doesn’t show up every week but is more than capable of beating this field if he feels like it. (3) BROADIES SONG drops in claiming price tonight.

Race 5

(6) THE BRUISER finds a field lacking early speed and on the class drop this week, he might be a good option to steal this race. Barn has started the meet hot with a 6-2-2-1 record. (2) WILD SHOT HANOVER is another with the potential to get aggressive early in the mile. (4) IYQ YQR closed well last time out and could be rounding into form.

Race 6

(7) LET’S FOAL AROUND has reached the basement condition at The Meadowlands and only needs to bring a decent effort to take care of business. (2) RANCOUSY is another who is in cheap; main danger. (3) KONA KID was cruising along on the engine when he broke last time; contender but others may be faster.

Race 7

(1) MOONLIGHTER has raced well for new trainer Andrew Harris if you ignore his last race when he had no shot from post seven. From the inside post, driver Joe Bongiorno should have plenty of options. (2) BETTING EXCHANGE was a solid second two starts back in this class. (10) JACKSRLUCKYTOO is the fastest horse in the race but you have to be careful considering the bad draw and long layoff.

Race 8

(6) CLASSIC AMERICAN N has been a bit flat at Yonkers for trainer Nick Surick. The switch to The Meadowlands could make a big difference. (7) ELITE AWARDS gets post and class relief but hasn’t won in 28 starts this year. (5) LAST DRAGON is certainly fast enough but horses from this barn tend to need a start coming off the bench.

Race 9

(4) PIER HO TEMPTATION took a bit of a break and raced very well at Vernon last time. Four-year-old has some go in his tank and seems like a great fit here. (3) GUANTANAMO BAY has great tactical speed and should be in good position. (6) EVER AGAIN is a sharp horses taking a shot versus older foes; mixed feelings. (7) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL is certainly sharp and could be a factor if they mix it up on the engine.

Race 10

(1) TOTALLY DREAMY is in another field without much early speed. Coming off a win, I expect a more aggressive steer this week. (7) AMPED UP moves into a new barn and can easily fly off the gate and take them a long way. (8) STIMULUS PLAN is off the claim and instantly eligible to improve.

Race 11

(3) MISTER TRUTH drops ever so slightly off a solid second-place finish last Saturday. I’ll give him the slight edge over (2) WINDSONG GORGEOUS, who rolled down the road versus an abbreviated field last week after setting very soft fractions. (5) SAVAGE SEELSTER should be along for an exotics share but I’ll stick to just the top pair as winners. (1) THAT’S MY OPINION roared home last time and is sure to be overbet now. He is too unreliable to bet as anything other than a longshot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 410 - 1182 / $2,223.50

BEST BETS: 54 - 96 / $177.40

Best Bet: SONOFA SIZZLE (3rd)

Spot Play: ALTA JEROME N (9th)


Race 1

(5) JUSTICE MY WAY really hasn't put in a bad effort in some time and Stratton sticks with him; he seems perfectly capable from this spot with any sort of live trip. (4) IDEAL FASHION finished with good pace and that's three good efforts since returning locally. (7) BETTOR REASON N could have shown more last week but he drops back to the level of his last win.

Race 2

(1) SPORTS BETTOR has raced well enough recently to suggest that he can sit a stalking trip and have enough to go by late. (5) SHADIOS will be heading to the front as usual and will have to be caught. (4) CHOCOLATE CRACKERS has Bartlett driving again for Milici and could make things interesting with early involvement.

Race 3

(1) SONOFA SIZZLE debuts for Milici upon shipping in, picks up Bartlett and draws best in this mixed bag of pacers. (4) BIG SURF jogged upon arrival from The Maritimes and he could have more to offer. (2) PASS THEM BY N has underacheived this year but he draws well again and should stick around for a share.

Race 4

(7) BIG N BAD was facing better when last seen locally and he's reunited with Bartlett; down the road. (3) KEYSTONE HONOR fits with these and he can grind and land a good share. (5) MARTY MONKHOUSER A has been sneaky-good in most recent and he can land a share at a price.

Race 5

(1) DALHOUSIE DAVE was aggressively handled and paid the price last week; he drops, draws best and deserves another chance. (2) HUGH HEFNER N raced well from off the pace last out at a price; he could leave enough to protect position and sit the garden trip. (3) OH JONNY B GOOD N was very game uncovered last out wearing down the odds-on favorite.

Race 6

(2) MACHS BEACH BOY has had a very disappointing season but he's shown some flashes of his former brilliance recently and would be no surprise from this inside spot against this questionable field. (4) MICKEY HANOVER is very inconsistent but his best effort puts him in the mix. (1) PREPARTY lacks the class of others but he's been sharp and he draws best.

Race 7

(4) BLOOD BROTHER appeared to have pace in the pocket but was shuffled and lost chance; give the 4-year-old another look, at a better price. (1) SOHO LENNON A returns off a win at The Meadowlands and gets a very nice post assignment. (8) P H SUPERCAM is severely handicapped by the outside post but it's hard to completely dismiss him.

Race 8

(4) THE REAL ONE always finishes with pace but always seems to be too far back; eventually the Lachance trainee is going to get there. (3) FIRST CLASS HORSE certainly didn't disgrace himself in his debut at this top level. (1) MELMERBY BEACH returns locally after a nice 3rd place finish in the TVG Final versus Always B Miki.

Race 9

(7) ALTA JEROME N has looked very impressive for Oakes since arriving from Down-Under; other imports have fired early on for this barn so I would expect good things from this one. (5) FASHION DELIGHT is reunited with Bartlett and lands a better post. (1) MCERLEAN is capable with these and the inside post certainly helps.

Race 10

(5) REUBEN BROGDEN N was a big upset winner when last at this level with Stratton driving and he draws best of the main contenders. (8) SAPPHIRE CITY has loads of class and has the speed to get involved from the outside post. (7) FEEL THE NEED A was empty from the pocket last week but we know he's better than that.

Race 11

(2) WINDS OF CHANGE pounced on these when last at this level and while it was a perfect setup that day he still figured to win; top billing from this inside spot. (4) BJ'S GUY raced decently last week for a board spot versus better. (6) CAVIART LUCA got brutally parked last out after a series of sharp efforts for the Burke barn; consider.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:36pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#13 SILENT AUCTION (ML=4/1)
#9 YARMORKA (ML=8/1)
#3 PENNY STAMP (ML=12/1)


SILENT AUCTION - This rider and handler's equines have been generating a beneficial return on investment. Not much speed in this race other than this horse. YARMORKA - I have to like this filly's chances of winning at the shorter distance. Callaghan was aboard this filly last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Woodbine, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 8/1 makes me think she's got a chance. PENNY STAMP - Silvera drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this horse is in a good spot at this level. This mare is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Finished out of the money last out at Woodbine, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 12/1 makes me think she's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 SIMPLE AS THAT (ML=3/1), #5 MORE THAN BANDEAU (ML=6/1), #2 FOREST PIKE (ML=8/1),

SIMPLE AS THAT - In the last event this steed finished seventh. Doesn't look promising for her chances this time out. Will be tough for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list. MORE THAN BANDEAU - The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant. FOREST PIKE - Awfully difficult to play this racer when she hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness of late. When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to notch a better fig than last time around the track to vie in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #13 SILENT AUCTION to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,9,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,9,13] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (2nd) Black Tide, 10-1
(9th) Storm Pursuit, 8-1


Charles Town (1st) Little Red Missile, 7-2
(6th) Carolina Gold, 3-1


Churchill Downs (5th) Areed, 7-2
(7th) Halo Nation, 5-1


Del Mar (7th) Honor and Courage, 3-1
(8th) Itsinthepost, 3-1


Delta Downs (4th) Rise Up, 4-1
(9th) Bling It On Baby, 10-1


Fair Grounds (1st) Dreamy Art, 7-2
(3rd) Song for Ruby, 5-1


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Heartofthetemple, 3-1
(8th) Matter of Luck, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (7th) Lemon Royal, 4-1
(10th) Arch Legacy, 3-1


Hawthorne (4th) Nifty Fifty, 6-1
(7th) Show'em Pop, 9-2


Laurel Park (3rd) Goodbye Sorrow, 3-1
(8th) Chamois, 9-2


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Oralee, 7-2
(4th) Sweeping Victory, 9-2


Mountaineer (2nd) Two Timer, 3-1
(7th) Bank of Dad, 6-1


Parx Racing (1st) Run Dixie Run, 9-2
(9th) Saharan Serenade, 6-1


Penn National (3rd) My Dear Noble, 9-2
(4th) Word Racer, 9-2


Remington Park (1st) Silver Reina, 3-1
(5th) Sajara, 10-1


Retama Park (4th) Awesome J T, 3-1
(6th) Miss Ocean Express, 7-2


Turf Paradise (7th) Surfliner, 6-1
(8th) Desert Express, 3-1


Woodbine (5th) Royal Katy, 3-1
(6th) Kodiac Gal, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 4,9/1,4,7/1/1,4,6,8/1,3,4,6 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,6,8/1,3,4,6/5,8/5,9 = $64

LATE PICK 4: 4,7/2/1,3,4,6,8/2 = $10

MEET STATS: 10 - 42 / $61.30 BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $6.00

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 4 / $0.00

Best Bet: NIRVANA SEELSTER (11th)

Spot Play: CASIMIR OVERDRIVE (6th)


Race 1

(4) HOT SPOT HANOVER had her win streak snapped right on the wire last time but she has post position advantage on that rival here and she can get a new streak started here. (9) STYLISH BEACHWHERE capitalized on a slowing late pace to get up on the wire last time and while she is sharp, she may not get the same type of trip here. (1) MISTY DE VIE can pass many of these and take a smaller share. (3) MISS BABE DELIGHT is worth a look for the exotics entering the top trainer's barn here.

Race 2

(1) PRINCESS AURORA was an excellent 2nd from the 10-hole to the division leader in the Breeders Crown and that rival doesn't show up here; top call. (7) WINTER SWEET FROST raced well for Zeron at Dover and her good early speed should play well here. (4) TEMPLE RUINS is another that will be positioned close to the lead early which is the place to be on this track. (3) GRAVITATOR is one of the better locals and she has shown improvement this autumn.

Race 3

(1) IMAGINE DRAGON unleashed an impressive late surge to win in this class last week. The short field works to her advantage; call to repeat. (3) SANDBETWEENURTOES was nailed right on the line by the choice last week. She should be the main threat again. (6) DELIGHTFUL HILL could threaten the top two if she is pushed hard off the gate, but, that scenario seems difficult to predict from week to week. (5) MS MAC N CHEESE raced better last time vs. weaker but she is likely to be limited to a smaller share here.

Race 4

(1) VEGAS ROCKS was a sharp winner last time he was in this class and he may offer a decent price here; slight nod. (8) ASAP HANOVER couldn't chase down a strong leader last time, but he was game in defeat and he rates highly here. (6) COOL ROCK is in sharp form and he is in with a good chance here if the track is playing fair. (4) THE REV should improve off his November 12th comeback race.

Race 5

(1) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE fell victim to a :59 flat middle 1/2 last week as no one was in any hurry in that elimination. Expect a more aggressive steer this time. (3) IDYLLIC BEACH was the benefactor of that slow pace, but good horses make their own luck and she is always a threat from close range. (6) THAT'S THE TICKET was flying at the wire last week. She would be the one to watch for late if any mid-race battling develops here. (4) CAVIART ALLY overcame a slow pace and powered up late to win her elimination. She isn't out of this.

Race 6

(5) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE moved first up into the fastest part of the mile last week and although he was quickly repelled, he did show some grit down the lane coming on again late. A slightly better trip could get him home at a price here. (8) PRESCOTTS HOPE will blast off the gate one of these weeks and when he does he could lead his rivals on a merry chase. (4) REEL has been closing well and he has an upset chance here if he is in range turning for home. (1) DARCEE N figures on the class drop here but he is often a victim of pace and trip.

Race 7

(5) SNOWSTORM HANOVER rode a soft early pace to an easy elimination win, but note that he doesn't need the lead to win and he can work out a good trip here starting from the middle of the gate. (9) WHAT THE HILL is sure to be more aggressive early here; using. (2) ANDY M was passing horses as the pace quickened last week which is a sign of sharpness. Toss him on some Pick 4 tickets. (3) JAKE was a solid elimination winner and he could better this prediction racing from close range.

Race 8

(7) DAYLIGHT RUSH was pushed hard early last week and he showed some determination re-rallying for 2nd. He could take this group coast-to coast. (4) BLAYDE HANOVER easily beat the choice, but he was the beneficiary of some spirited front-end dueling that night. He is obviously a contender, but likely to be overbet here. (2) MASERATI SEELSTER comes off a sharp front end win and he can take a slice here facing better this time. (5) ELECTRIC WESTERN is a great one to use in the bottom slots of exotic wagers.

Race 9

(2) HUNTSVILLE is on a tremendous roll and he proved in the Breeders Crown that he is the best in this division; top call. (3) DOWNBYTHESEASIDE was no match for the choice last time and the chalky exacta seems logical to repeat here. (1) MISO FAST can follow along and take a smaller share here. (4) BLOOD LINE had a tough trip in the Breeders Crown. He's worth a look here leaving from a much better post.

Race 10

(1) SASS couldn't chase the winner down last week on a night where the front was golden. He can turn the tables here if he gets a good enough start from the tricky rail post. (3) A ROD HALL will be a threat here if he can stay flat, but that part is a bit iffy. (8) MARQUIS VOLO finally put it all together last time. He is a threat to repeat off that sharp win. (6) RENEGADE MAGIC always seems to be around the money and she has an upset chance here if she is put into the race early.

Race 11

(2) NIRVANA SEELSTER went a monster first-over trip chasing the sharpest horse on the grounds last week and he was still digging at the wire. He should be very tough in here. (3) JINS SHARK makes his third start off a break and she is obviously fast enough to contend, if right. (1) AMERICAN VIRGIN figures on the class drop here. (7) TRACEUR HANOVER steps back up off a nice win but these are much tougher; minor share predicted.

Race 12

(8) BIGTOWN HERO qualified at least a second faster than his opponents go for purses here. If he stays flat, he'll be tough to overhaul. (9) MACH ON THE BEACH moves into Moreau's barn off a sharp victory; using. (5) ARRIVED LATE always hits the ticket it seems; consider for exotic wagers. (1) BALI can parlay an inside following trip into a share here. (6) CHAMPAGNE PHIL - a classy veteran - should be part of the early pace and he may stick around for a slice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 39 - 101 / $167.00 (-$35.00)

BEST BETS: 5 - 8 / $11.80 (-$4.20)

Best Bet: PIER HO TEMPTATION (9th)

Spot Play: BORN TO FIGHT (3rd)


Race 1

(3) SANTIAGO STYLE gets written into this Non-winners of 2 race on the merits of having won seven races for purses under $2,600. It will be interesting to see how he handles the stretch out to the mile track. (4) COOL BREEZE DE VIE has been on a solid run at Monticello and should fit with this group. (1) TALENT SOUP comes off a win at Pocono in decent time for a barn that seems to be heating up slightly.

Race 2

(5) DOUBLE A CASH HALL ships in from Hoosier where he was facing some strong company including Rose Run Parker, who rolled the dice in the Open ranks on the east coast earlier in the year. This seems like a winnable spot. (2) WAITING ON A WOMAN tired on the lead last time but showed more form than in previous weeks. He could be ready to turn things around. (6) ROCK CASHEL is very consistent but I’d need a double-digit price to back him on the win end in this group.

Race 3

(4) BORN TO FIGHT was poised to pounce in the pocket last time at Pocono when he ran up on the leader and made a break. This is far from a strong bunch and he should be sitting close to the front. (8) SHEER FLEX gets class relief and has won at The Meadowlands in the past; dangerous. (1) WILD SMILE was facing tougher at Yonkers and does get sent out by Daley this week.

Race 4

(1) GAMBLER’S TALE never got involved last week but turned in a solid effort in one of these preliminary Dash for the G Notes events two starts back. In a field without a standout, he can take charge. (6) BULLVILLE KYLE showed some late life last time and does own a 1:51 win here this year. (8) CARD SHOCK doesn’t show up every week but is more than capable of beating this field if he feels like it. (3) BROADIES SONG drops in claiming price tonight.

Race 5

(6) THE BRUISER finds a field lacking early speed and on the class drop this week, he might be a good option to steal this race. Barn has started the meet hot with a 6-2-2-1 record. (2) WILD SHOT HANOVER is another with the potential to get aggressive early in the mile. (4) IYQ YQR closed well last time out and could be rounding into form.

Race 6

(7) LET’S FOAL AROUND has reached the basement condition at The Meadowlands and only needs to bring a decent effort to take care of business. (2) RANCOUSY is another who is in cheap; main danger. (3) KONA KID was cruising along on the engine when he broke last time; contender but others may be faster.

Race 7

(1) MOONLIGHTER has raced well for new trainer Andrew Harris if you ignore his last race when he had no shot from post seven. From the inside post, driver Joe Bongiorno should have plenty of options. (2) BETTING EXCHANGE was a solid second two starts back in this class. (10) JACKSRLUCKYTOO is the fastest horse in the race but you have to be careful considering the bad draw and long layoff.

Race 8

(6) CLASSIC AMERICAN N has been a bit flat at Yonkers for trainer Nick Surick. The switch to The Meadowlands could make a big difference. (7) ELITE AWARDS gets post and class relief but hasn’t won in 28 starts this year. (5) LAST DRAGON is certainly fast enough but horses from this barn tend to need a start coming off the bench.

Race 9

(4) PIER HO TEMPTATION took a bit of a break and raced very well at Vernon last time. Four-year-old has some go in his tank and seems like a great fit here. (3) GUANTANAMO BAY has great tactical speed and should be in good position. (6) EVER AGAIN is a sharp horses taking a shot versus older foes; mixed feelings. (7) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL is certainly sharp and could be a factor if they mix it up on the engine.

Race 10

(1) TOTALLY DREAMY is in another field without much early speed. Coming off a win, I expect a more aggressive steer this week. (7) AMPED UP moves into a new barn and can easily fly off the gate and take them a long way. (8) STIMULUS PLAN is off the claim and instantly eligible to improve.

Race 11

(3) MISTER TRUTH drops ever so slightly off a solid second-place finish last Saturday. I’ll give him the slight edge over (2) WINDSONG GORGEOUS, who rolled down the road versus an abbreviated field last week after setting very soft fractions. (5) SAVAGE SEELSTER should be along for an exotics share but I’ll stick to just the top pair as winners. (1) THAT’S MY OPINION roared home last time and is sure to be overbet now. He is too unreliable to bet as anything other than a longshot.