At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
We have a couple of good betting cards on tap at Aqueduct and Del Mar for Saturday including a pair of graded stakes at the Big A that both drew big fields.
I was not planning on handicapping the Del Mar fall meeting but after a quick look at Saturday’s card I could not resist. We have some solid fields and good betting opportunities.
The feature at Del Mar on Saturday is the $75,000 Let It Ride for three-year-olds that have not won a stakes race of $50,000 other than state bred at a mile or over since April 1.
A field of six will line up to go a mile on turf and I landed on Mittersill, who just missed by a neck against first level optional claimers and looks ready to fire a good one in his third start since coming to the U.S.
The stakes at the Big A both drew competitive fields. The $200,000 Red Smith Handicap (G3) drew a field of 11 led by Wake Forest, the 8-5 morning line favorite for trainer Chad Brown.
The $150,00 Discovery (G3) drew a field of 11 three-year-olds that will go 1 1/8 miles on the main track. The Brown trained Gift Box is the 3-1 morning line favorite.
The ridgling makes his first start since running fourth in the Travers (G1). We saw Arrogate come out of that race with his strong win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in his next outing.
Brown also saddles My Man Sam, who was eighth in the Travers and then was fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) in his next start.
I am looking for Neolithic to run a good one at a generous price. He had a rough trip last out in his runner up finish against Alw-1 company. The colt tracked the early pace wile down along the inside, got steadied and squeezed back losing momentum, then had to steady a second time, was angled out four wide around the far turn and finished up well for the runner up spot.
The racing surface was kind to speed that day and I’ll give him a good look if he goes off near his 15-1 morning line.
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:20 ET)
#1 Discreet Encounter 6-1
#5 Mar Vista Miguel 8-1
#6 Toga Tosconova 6-1
#4 Shades of Brown 4-1
Analysis: Discreet Encounter was outrun early and finished evenly in a fourth place finish last out at this level. Two and three back this guy was third in a couple of tries against open $50,000 maiden claimers. It is a pretty weak group and with the rail draw and Carmouche aboard I think this guy may be closer to the front early in this spot.
Mar Vista Miguel prompted the early pace and weakened to finish sixth in his debut, sent off at 25-1 in a field of 12. He lands with the Esler barn and figures to be part of the pace against this weak group, He is out of a stakes placed Belong to Me mare that has dropped five winners.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 The Red Smith Hcp G3 (3:17 ET)
#8 Wake Forest 8-5
#7 Messi 5-1
#11 Danish Dynaformer 5-1
#9 Bigger Picture 6-1
Analysis: Wake Forest made a good late run to finish third in the Canadian International (G1) last out at Woodbine. The six-year-old has won just one race in six starts this year but that came in the man O' War (G1) at Belmont park back in May at today's distance. The Chad Brown trainee is going to get a good pace set up here and has been facing tougher than he catches here.
Messi shipped to the west coast last out for the John Henry (G1) but the gelding failed to fire, weakening to finish 10th. He won the Sky Classic (G2) at 1 1/4 miles at Woodbine. The runner up Are You Kidding Me came back to win the Durnham Cup (G3) and Autumn (G2) in his next two outings. He reunites with Prado who was aboard for his win in the Sky Classic and this guy is much better than he showed last out at Santa Anita.
Danish Dynaformer was sixth in the Canadian International last out at 33-1 but did earn a career top speed fig in the effort. His last win came in the Singspiel (G3) at Woodbine back in July and his last three starts have all come in Grade 1 company. He fits better at this level and his best puts him in the mix here for a share.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 7,8,9,11
TRI: 7,8 / 7,8,9,11 / 5,7,8,9,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
DMR Race 8 OClm $62,500C (3:59 PT)
#6 Hobbits Hero 7-2
#1 Stormy Liberal 6-1
#9 He Will 3-1
#3 Crown the Kitten 4-1
Analysis: Hobbits Hero set the early fractions and weakened late to finish fourth last out against Alw-2 optional claimers trying to go nine furlongs on turf at Santa Anita. This guy has won 9 of his 18 career starts on turf including beating Alw-1 foes over the turf here two back at a mile. He has landed in the exacta in 4 of his 6 trips over the turf here. He makes his second start off a two-month break and the cut back in distance here will suit him.
Stormy Liberal beat $40,000 claimers last out with a career top speed fig and was claimed out of the race by the Miller barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He is 0 for 5 at the Alw-2 level but did finish third in three of those trips. He makes his second start off a six-month break and he can handle the stretch out.
Wagering
WIN: #6 t win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,3,6,9
TRI: 1,6 / 1,3,6,9 / 1,2,3,6,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #5 Mar Vista Miguel 8-1
R3: #8 Barrel of Dreams 10-1
R4: #1 Daggerpoint 8-1
R8: #8 Neolithic 15-1
R8: #7 My Man Sam 8-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
We have a couple of good betting cards on tap at Aqueduct and Del Mar for Saturday including a pair of graded stakes at the Big A that both drew big fields.
I was not planning on handicapping the Del Mar fall meeting but after a quick look at Saturday’s card I could not resist. We have some solid fields and good betting opportunities.
The feature at Del Mar on Saturday is the $75,000 Let It Ride for three-year-olds that have not won a stakes race of $50,000 other than state bred at a mile or over since April 1.
A field of six will line up to go a mile on turf and I landed on Mittersill, who just missed by a neck against first level optional claimers and looks ready to fire a good one in his third start since coming to the U.S.
The stakes at the Big A both drew competitive fields. The $200,000 Red Smith Handicap (G3) drew a field of 11 led by Wake Forest, the 8-5 morning line favorite for trainer Chad Brown.
The $150,00 Discovery (G3) drew a field of 11 three-year-olds that will go 1 1/8 miles on the main track. The Brown trained Gift Box is the 3-1 morning line favorite.
The ridgling makes his first start since running fourth in the Travers (G1). We saw Arrogate come out of that race with his strong win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in his next outing.
Brown also saddles My Man Sam, who was eighth in the Travers and then was fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) in his next start.
I am looking for Neolithic to run a good one at a generous price. He had a rough trip last out in his runner up finish against Alw-1 company. The colt tracked the early pace wile down along the inside, got steadied and squeezed back losing momentum, then had to steady a second time, was angled out four wide around the far turn and finished up well for the runner up spot.
The racing surface was kind to speed that day and I’ll give him a good look if he goes off near his 15-1 morning line.
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:20 ET)
#1 Discreet Encounter 6-1
#5 Mar Vista Miguel 8-1
#6 Toga Tosconova 6-1
#4 Shades of Brown 4-1
Analysis: Discreet Encounter was outrun early and finished evenly in a fourth place finish last out at this level. Two and three back this guy was third in a couple of tries against open $50,000 maiden claimers. It is a pretty weak group and with the rail draw and Carmouche aboard I think this guy may be closer to the front early in this spot.
Mar Vista Miguel prompted the early pace and weakened to finish sixth in his debut, sent off at 25-1 in a field of 12. He lands with the Esler barn and figures to be part of the pace against this weak group, He is out of a stakes placed Belong to Me mare that has dropped five winners.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 The Red Smith Hcp G3 (3:17 ET)
#8 Wake Forest 8-5
#7 Messi 5-1
#11 Danish Dynaformer 5-1
#9 Bigger Picture 6-1
Analysis: Wake Forest made a good late run to finish third in the Canadian International (G1) last out at Woodbine. The six-year-old has won just one race in six starts this year but that came in the man O' War (G1) at Belmont park back in May at today's distance. The Chad Brown trainee is going to get a good pace set up here and has been facing tougher than he catches here.
Messi shipped to the west coast last out for the John Henry (G1) but the gelding failed to fire, weakening to finish 10th. He won the Sky Classic (G2) at 1 1/4 miles at Woodbine. The runner up Are You Kidding Me came back to win the Durnham Cup (G3) and Autumn (G2) in his next two outings. He reunites with Prado who was aboard for his win in the Sky Classic and this guy is much better than he showed last out at Santa Anita.
Danish Dynaformer was sixth in the Canadian International last out at 33-1 but did earn a career top speed fig in the effort. His last win came in the Singspiel (G3) at Woodbine back in July and his last three starts have all come in Grade 1 company. He fits better at this level and his best puts him in the mix here for a share.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 7,8,9,11
TRI: 7,8 / 7,8,9,11 / 5,7,8,9,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
DMR Race 8 OClm $62,500C (3:59 PT)
#6 Hobbits Hero 7-2
#1 Stormy Liberal 6-1
#9 He Will 3-1
#3 Crown the Kitten 4-1
Analysis: Hobbits Hero set the early fractions and weakened late to finish fourth last out against Alw-2 optional claimers trying to go nine furlongs on turf at Santa Anita. This guy has won 9 of his 18 career starts on turf including beating Alw-1 foes over the turf here two back at a mile. He has landed in the exacta in 4 of his 6 trips over the turf here. He makes his second start off a two-month break and the cut back in distance here will suit him.
Stormy Liberal beat $40,000 claimers last out with a career top speed fig and was claimed out of the race by the Miller barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He is 0 for 5 at the Alw-2 level but did finish third in three of those trips. He makes his second start off a six-month break and he can handle the stretch out.
Wagering
WIN: #6 t win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,3,6,9
TRI: 1,6 / 1,3,6,9 / 1,2,3,6,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #5 Mar Vista Miguel 8-1
R3: #8 Barrel of Dreams 10-1
R4: #1 Daggerpoint 8-1
R8: #8 Neolithic 15-1
R8: #7 My Man Sam 8-1
Good luck today!
Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/12 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,6/3,6/2,5/3,4,5,8/1,3,7,8 = $25.60
EARLY PICK 4: 3,4,5,8/1,3,7,8/3/2,9 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,6/1,6/3,5,7/1,4,6 = $54
MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00 BEST BETS: 0 – 0 / $0.00
SPOT PLAYS: 0 – 0 / $0.00
Best Bet: CATCH THE DREAM (6th)
Spot Play: SASS (8th)
Race 1
(1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE powered down the lane in an impressive score last time out. He could bring a decent price here on the class rise and is worth a play in his current razor-sharp condition. (6) THUNDER STEELER debuts for Menary here off a sharp qualifying effort and he is the class of the field by far; using. (2) DIALAMARA fell just short in a very good effort last time and he should make the ticket here. (3) HOUSE OF TERROR disappointed as chalk first time out for Moreau. He can rebound with a better effort here, but the top two may be too tough for him here.
Race 2
(6) NICKLE BAG races best in the cold winter months and he does well at Woodbine; slight nod. (3) ANDREIOS KARDIA is the one to beat off two straight Preferred wins and the short field is good for him. (2) JINS SHARK should improve returning to a 7-day cycle here. (5) EVENIN OF PLEASURE is always dangerous from close range but others look more likely here.
Race 3
(2) MUSCLE AVE raced okay first up against a good colt last time and that one does not show up here. A more aggressive drive is likely; top call. (5) WALK TO FOLSOM beat the choice off a better trip but he is a top contender again here. (9) SMASH HIT is likely to be closing from far back for a smaller share. (3) TYMAL TEMPEST returns to a 7-day cycle and is one to consider at a price as her racing style can play well here.
Race 4
(3) ST LADS PENNY LANE just failed while racing on the rim a long way last time. She races better off a helmet and she could be a good price stepping up slightly here. (5) RIDE AWAY SHARK is likely to show more early speed here and she is a threat to go all the way. (8) REGALLY READY drops and she should be a threat here despite her outer post. (4) REGAL LUCK should sit a good following trip here and she could pounce late for a win under the right circumstances.
Race 5
(7) COOL ROCK was impressive in victory last time and he has been known to string a few good ones together; top call. (8) PRESCOTTS HOPE had a comeback race in which he did okay. He is a Woodbine specialist that could wire these if sent hard early. (1) DARCEE N could get a rapid pace to chase here; using. (3) ASAP HANOVER drops slightly and is another to consider for Pick 4 and Pick 5 bets in a contentious dash.
Race 6
(3) CATCH THE DREAM takes a substantial drop here. He should handle this group. (7) STAN THE MAN keeps racing well showing big early speed and he never gets bet. He can offer some exotics value here. (6) ODDS ON AMETHYST is one of the better closers here and is another that can spice the exotics off his last couple of lines. (8) BURNIN MONEY steps up off a narrow win and he is likely to be a fringe player here. Use him on the bottom of vertical wagers.
Race 7
(9) HOT SPOT HANOVER is on a roll right now and should prove hard to beat, even from out there. (2) JUMP JIVE AND JAM should be blasting early here and she could sit a great trip near the front; using. (7) STYLISH BEACHWHERE requalified well and she should make the ticket here if she stays flat. (3) MISTY DE VIE has one of the best closing kicks in here and she's not out of this.
Race 8
(6) SASS qualified nicely with the addition of trotting hopples. He has the speed to beat these and he may offer a good price here. (3) HONOR ABOVE ALL was too far back when the pace accelerated last time. He should get put into action earlier here leaving from a better post. (2) MANOFMANYIMAGES is always around the money and he is another that will be a threat from close range here. (7) A ROD HALL fired his best effort in many weeks last time. Consider him for vertical wagers.
Race 9
(6) EASY LOVER HANOVER is quite simply the sharpest horse on the grounds right now; I'll stick with him here. (1) MACH CODE has returned from a break in great form and he looks like the only real threat to the choice here. (7) NIRVANA SEELSTER has been second to the choice in two straight and he will be a speed threat again, at least early. (3) HEZA THRILL N should be closing for a piece as always.
Race 10
(3) PERFECT VISTA was very game in defeat last week despite going a long trip. I'll give him the nod here off that sharp mile. (7) FLAHERTY showed late interest after getting shuffled. He can be a bigger threat here if sent early, which is quite possible. (5) IMKEEPNTHISGUY wasn't far behind the choice last time and trainer Brealey excels at this meet typically; using. (6) DAYLIGHT RUSH should be prominent ealry then stick around for a slice.
Race 11
(4) BLISSFUL YEARS goes for the potent Adams barn here shipping in from Leamington. He's won here before and could be a price; trainer angle play. (1) LATE NIGHT comes off a sharp win in a claimer and I don't think these are that much tougher. He should be there at the wire. (6) ZINGERS LAUGH couldn't fish out any cover last time. He may get a much better trip here; beware. (5) SINGLE WHITE SOCK fits this class well. He could better this prediction. (3) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL is a tough one to bet because he rarely leaves the rail, but he should take at least a smaller share here.
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,6/3,6/2,5/3,4,5,8/1,3,7,8 = $25.60
EARLY PICK 4: 3,4,5,8/1,3,7,8/3/2,9 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,6/1,6/3,5,7/1,4,6 = $54
MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00 BEST BETS: 0 – 0 / $0.00
SPOT PLAYS: 0 – 0 / $0.00
Best Bet: CATCH THE DREAM (6th)
Spot Play: SASS (8th)
Race 1
(1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE powered down the lane in an impressive score last time out. He could bring a decent price here on the class rise and is worth a play in his current razor-sharp condition. (6) THUNDER STEELER debuts for Menary here off a sharp qualifying effort and he is the class of the field by far; using. (2) DIALAMARA fell just short in a very good effort last time and he should make the ticket here. (3) HOUSE OF TERROR disappointed as chalk first time out for Moreau. He can rebound with a better effort here, but the top two may be too tough for him here.
Race 2
(6) NICKLE BAG races best in the cold winter months and he does well at Woodbine; slight nod. (3) ANDREIOS KARDIA is the one to beat off two straight Preferred wins and the short field is good for him. (2) JINS SHARK should improve returning to a 7-day cycle here. (5) EVENIN OF PLEASURE is always dangerous from close range but others look more likely here.
Race 3
(2) MUSCLE AVE raced okay first up against a good colt last time and that one does not show up here. A more aggressive drive is likely; top call. (5) WALK TO FOLSOM beat the choice off a better trip but he is a top contender again here. (9) SMASH HIT is likely to be closing from far back for a smaller share. (3) TYMAL TEMPEST returns to a 7-day cycle and is one to consider at a price as her racing style can play well here.
Race 4
(3) ST LADS PENNY LANE just failed while racing on the rim a long way last time. She races better off a helmet and she could be a good price stepping up slightly here. (5) RIDE AWAY SHARK is likely to show more early speed here and she is a threat to go all the way. (8) REGALLY READY drops and she should be a threat here despite her outer post. (4) REGAL LUCK should sit a good following trip here and she could pounce late for a win under the right circumstances.
Race 5
(7) COOL ROCK was impressive in victory last time and he has been known to string a few good ones together; top call. (8) PRESCOTTS HOPE had a comeback race in which he did okay. He is a Woodbine specialist that could wire these if sent hard early. (1) DARCEE N could get a rapid pace to chase here; using. (3) ASAP HANOVER drops slightly and is another to consider for Pick 4 and Pick 5 bets in a contentious dash.
Race 6
(3) CATCH THE DREAM takes a substantial drop here. He should handle this group. (7) STAN THE MAN keeps racing well showing big early speed and he never gets bet. He can offer some exotics value here. (6) ODDS ON AMETHYST is one of the better closers here and is another that can spice the exotics off his last couple of lines. (8) BURNIN MONEY steps up off a narrow win and he is likely to be a fringe player here. Use him on the bottom of vertical wagers.
Race 7
(9) HOT SPOT HANOVER is on a roll right now and should prove hard to beat, even from out there. (2) JUMP JIVE AND JAM should be blasting early here and she could sit a great trip near the front; using. (7) STYLISH BEACHWHERE requalified well and she should make the ticket here if she stays flat. (3) MISTY DE VIE has one of the best closing kicks in here and she's not out of this.
Race 8
(6) SASS qualified nicely with the addition of trotting hopples. He has the speed to beat these and he may offer a good price here. (3) HONOR ABOVE ALL was too far back when the pace accelerated last time. He should get put into action earlier here leaving from a better post. (2) MANOFMANYIMAGES is always around the money and he is another that will be a threat from close range here. (7) A ROD HALL fired his best effort in many weeks last time. Consider him for vertical wagers.
Race 9
(6) EASY LOVER HANOVER is quite simply the sharpest horse on the grounds right now; I'll stick with him here. (1) MACH CODE has returned from a break in great form and he looks like the only real threat to the choice here. (7) NIRVANA SEELSTER has been second to the choice in two straight and he will be a speed threat again, at least early. (3) HEZA THRILL N should be closing for a piece as always.
Race 10
(3) PERFECT VISTA was very game in defeat last week despite going a long trip. I'll give him the nod here off that sharp mile. (7) FLAHERTY showed late interest after getting shuffled. He can be a bigger threat here if sent early, which is quite possible. (5) IMKEEPNTHISGUY wasn't far behind the choice last time and trainer Brealey excels at this meet typically; using. (6) DAYLIGHT RUSH should be prominent ealry then stick around for a slice.
Race 11
(4) BLISSFUL YEARS goes for the potent Adams barn here shipping in from Leamington. He's won here before and could be a price; trainer angle play. (1) LATE NIGHT comes off a sharp win in a claimer and I don't think these are that much tougher. He should be there at the wire. (6) ZINGERS LAUGH couldn't fish out any cover last time. He may get a much better trip here; beware. (5) SINGLE WHITE SOCK fits this class well. He could better this prediction. (3) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL is a tough one to bet because he rarely leaves the rail, but he should take at least a smaller share here.
Meadowlands: Saturday 11/12 Analysis
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 30 - 78 / $130.30 (-$25.70)
BEST BETS: 3 - 6 / $6.90 (-$5.10)
Best Bet: ALWAYS B MIKI (6th)
Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (7th)
Race 1
(7) BELIEVE THIS ROMEO ships in off a sharp score at Vernon and picks up Yannick Gingras. In a field of camera shy individuals, he looks as good as any. (1) STIMULUS PLAN was in good position and came up flat late a week ago. That said, this race is likely to go slower than that 1:52 1/5 mile and we get a driver change to David Miller. (9) ITALIAN REBEL moves into a new barn that has started the meet fairly well with a 3-1-1-1 record.
Race 2
(1) TRUE BLUE HALL could be the value play in this field. He was stuck first-over last time and his previous starts were from outside posts on smaller tracks. I can see him coming up with a big effort in this spot. (3) SOUTHWIND INDY is another who has been dealing with bad posts and could show more in this spot. (4) SPICEBOMB went to the front and got caught again. He certainly seems better from off the pace. (7) SCREAMIN SEAMAN A is racing well enough to use underneath and seems capable of upsetting.
Race 3
(2) ROCKAVELLIAN is another sharp Vernon shipper picking up Gingras. New trainer Joseph Skowyra seems to have figured him out. (8) MEDOLAND JATE drops a notch this week and really wasn’t that bad last time. (4) AMPED UP switches to the big track and has won over this surface in 2016.
Race 4
I had no interest in (6) D’ONE when she raced in the Breeders Crown because I felt she needed a race. Now with that effort under her halter, I see no reason why this classy mare can’t step up her game against the division’s best. (2) HANNELORE HANOVER is clearly the horse to beat and has been super this year. (7) BEE A MAGICIAN wound up trapped along the cones too long in the Breeders Crown. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sears wanted to set the pace with that race in the back of his mind. She is very dangerous.
Race 5
(5) MR BLISSFULL switched to Callahan in the bike and rallied nicely last time. In a field lacking form, that seems like a reasonable angle. (10) NORTHERN PRIZE comes in with decent form from Freehold and was a solid $10,000 claimer here last year. Maybe new driver Brett Miller can spark his engine. (1) SEAFOOD MIKE should be firing away from the inside and get a piece. (2) RELENTLESS DREAMER looks awful on paper but I’ve always thought Campbell drove him best.
Race 6
(3) ALWAYS B MIKI is impossible to pick against in this spot; goes out a winner. (7) SHAMBALLA can best fast off the gate and this looks like a perfect spot to show early speed and follow the top choice for second money. (4) ALL BETS OFF is winding down a strong career with over $2 million earned. If the trip works out he can get second.
Race 7
(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND was given no opportunity to win and closed strongly for a minor share last time. Veteran gelding typically dominates at this level and seems like a must play, though I’m a bit worried he’ll be an underlay. (1) STAY UP LATE is in serious form right now and impossible to ignore. (6) URBANITE HANOVER has woken up in recent weeks with Gingras in the bike. (2) HILLBILLY HANOVER is just another sharp horse in what looks like a fairly competitive event.
Race 8
(3) LADY SHADOW is too fast for this group if she brings anything close to her best game. (1) SASSY HANOVER should push away just enough from the inside to sit a nice trip behind the speedy top choice. Four-year-old seems to be coming around late in her first year against older mares. (9) SOLAR SISTER gets a nice driver change to Sears and has the early zip to make the front and sit a trip. (7) FROST DAMAGE BLUES deserves respect in the exotics.
Race 9
(2A) UNCLE LILE A couldn’t have looked much better in winning his Meadowlands debut. I’m not crazy about post 10, but at least we get a decent entrymate in FEARLESS LEADER N in case the trip is too much to overcome. (3) SHOW ME UP set a lifetime mark last week at age 9. Can he follow that up? In a race without too much early speed on paper, he looks like a major player. (1) MAJOR BUBBLES N also set his career mark last Saturday and has dangerous inside speed. (5) LEGENDS LUCK could be a factor with a smooth trip.
Race 10
(3) BAR HOPPING has a tough task ahead beating older foes but he certainly is sharp enough to accomplish that feat. It will ultimately come down to whether he can get a reasonable trip. (6) RESOLVE is the clear horse to beat. I’m torn because of that fact and the likelihood that he’ll be odds-on. If you can somehow get 7-5 or better on him, I’d probably make him the top pick. (5) WIND OF THE NORTH has been racing much better over the last six weeks; using underneath.
Race 11
(4) WESTERN DYNASTY won his only start over the track this year and also owns a 1:50 2/5 qualifying win on this surface. Against a formless group, I’ll take a shot with him. (1) GRAVE DANCER hasn’t proven to be as fast as some of the others but is clearly the sharpest. (2) DANCIN HILL adds Gingras and has proven successful here in the past.
Race 12
(4) SIR JAKE’S Z TAM is coming off an interesting mile where he was being loose-lined in the three-hole and then pulled first over to challenge. It was just a strange performance and in a field without any standouts, I’ll take a shot in the dark. (1) MY SPIRIT SOARS comes off a decent mile and seems to have righted the ship. (9) Q ROCK has good gate speed, a quality that most of these seem to lack. (5) TINK AND TIGER dropped to this level and was okay last time; trip player.
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 30 - 78 / $130.30 (-$25.70)
BEST BETS: 3 - 6 / $6.90 (-$5.10)
Best Bet: ALWAYS B MIKI (6th)
Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (7th)
Race 1
(7) BELIEVE THIS ROMEO ships in off a sharp score at Vernon and picks up Yannick Gingras. In a field of camera shy individuals, he looks as good as any. (1) STIMULUS PLAN was in good position and came up flat late a week ago. That said, this race is likely to go slower than that 1:52 1/5 mile and we get a driver change to David Miller. (9) ITALIAN REBEL moves into a new barn that has started the meet fairly well with a 3-1-1-1 record.
Race 2
(1) TRUE BLUE HALL could be the value play in this field. He was stuck first-over last time and his previous starts were from outside posts on smaller tracks. I can see him coming up with a big effort in this spot. (3) SOUTHWIND INDY is another who has been dealing with bad posts and could show more in this spot. (4) SPICEBOMB went to the front and got caught again. He certainly seems better from off the pace. (7) SCREAMIN SEAMAN A is racing well enough to use underneath and seems capable of upsetting.
Race 3
(2) ROCKAVELLIAN is another sharp Vernon shipper picking up Gingras. New trainer Joseph Skowyra seems to have figured him out. (8) MEDOLAND JATE drops a notch this week and really wasn’t that bad last time. (4) AMPED UP switches to the big track and has won over this surface in 2016.
Race 4
I had no interest in (6) D’ONE when she raced in the Breeders Crown because I felt she needed a race. Now with that effort under her halter, I see no reason why this classy mare can’t step up her game against the division’s best. (2) HANNELORE HANOVER is clearly the horse to beat and has been super this year. (7) BEE A MAGICIAN wound up trapped along the cones too long in the Breeders Crown. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sears wanted to set the pace with that race in the back of his mind. She is very dangerous.
Race 5
(5) MR BLISSFULL switched to Callahan in the bike and rallied nicely last time. In a field lacking form, that seems like a reasonable angle. (10) NORTHERN PRIZE comes in with decent form from Freehold and was a solid $10,000 claimer here last year. Maybe new driver Brett Miller can spark his engine. (1) SEAFOOD MIKE should be firing away from the inside and get a piece. (2) RELENTLESS DREAMER looks awful on paper but I’ve always thought Campbell drove him best.
Race 6
(3) ALWAYS B MIKI is impossible to pick against in this spot; goes out a winner. (7) SHAMBALLA can best fast off the gate and this looks like a perfect spot to show early speed and follow the top choice for second money. (4) ALL BETS OFF is winding down a strong career with over $2 million earned. If the trip works out he can get second.
Race 7
(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND was given no opportunity to win and closed strongly for a minor share last time. Veteran gelding typically dominates at this level and seems like a must play, though I’m a bit worried he’ll be an underlay. (1) STAY UP LATE is in serious form right now and impossible to ignore. (6) URBANITE HANOVER has woken up in recent weeks with Gingras in the bike. (2) HILLBILLY HANOVER is just another sharp horse in what looks like a fairly competitive event.
Race 8
(3) LADY SHADOW is too fast for this group if she brings anything close to her best game. (1) SASSY HANOVER should push away just enough from the inside to sit a nice trip behind the speedy top choice. Four-year-old seems to be coming around late in her first year against older mares. (9) SOLAR SISTER gets a nice driver change to Sears and has the early zip to make the front and sit a trip. (7) FROST DAMAGE BLUES deserves respect in the exotics.
Race 9
(2A) UNCLE LILE A couldn’t have looked much better in winning his Meadowlands debut. I’m not crazy about post 10, but at least we get a decent entrymate in FEARLESS LEADER N in case the trip is too much to overcome. (3) SHOW ME UP set a lifetime mark last week at age 9. Can he follow that up? In a race without too much early speed on paper, he looks like a major player. (1) MAJOR BUBBLES N also set his career mark last Saturday and has dangerous inside speed. (5) LEGENDS LUCK could be a factor with a smooth trip.
Race 10
(3) BAR HOPPING has a tough task ahead beating older foes but he certainly is sharp enough to accomplish that feat. It will ultimately come down to whether he can get a reasonable trip. (6) RESOLVE is the clear horse to beat. I’m torn because of that fact and the likelihood that he’ll be odds-on. If you can somehow get 7-5 or better on him, I’d probably make him the top pick. (5) WIND OF THE NORTH has been racing much better over the last six weeks; using underneath.
Race 11
(4) WESTERN DYNASTY won his only start over the track this year and also owns a 1:50 2/5 qualifying win on this surface. Against a formless group, I’ll take a shot with him. (1) GRAVE DANCER hasn’t proven to be as fast as some of the others but is clearly the sharpest. (2) DANCIN HILL adds Gingras and has proven successful here in the past.
Race 12
(4) SIR JAKE’S Z TAM is coming off an interesting mile where he was being loose-lined in the three-hole and then pulled first over to challenge. It was just a strange performance and in a field without any standouts, I’ll take a shot in the dark. (1) MY SPIRIT SOARS comes off a decent mile and seems to have righted the ship. (9) Q ROCK has good gate speed, a quality that most of these seem to lack. (5) TINK AND TIGER dropped to this level and was okay last time; trip player.
Yonkers: Saturday 11/12 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 400 - 1152 / $2,182.10
BEST BETS: 52 - 93 / $172.00
Best Bet: GRIN FOR MONEY (1st)
Spot Play: DALHOUSIE DAVE (5th)
Race 1
(5) GRIN FOR MONEY took care of business at odds-on upon arriving from Canada and joining the Milici barn; he faces a very suspect group here and can easily repeat. (6) MAGIC MANNY could show more in his second start off the vacation. (4) UNION MAN HANOVER has been empty in his two starts off the claim for his new barn but he does face softer tonight.
Race 2
(1) FAMEOUS WESTERN has raced well in all recent efforts and lands another good post; veteran can trip out from this spot. (4) SKY IS THE LIMIT gets Brennan back in the bike and they teamed up to beat lesser two back. (2) MACHTU N is probably best here but has been a bit flat recently.
Race 3
(3) GYPSY LEATHER hasn't had the easiest of trips in his two starts off the Robertson claim but he drops a notch in class and draws better. (1) PAMS LEGACY finished decently last week and could be rounding back to form. (7) JUSTICE MY WAY can go with this type and could be considered underneath at a big price.
Race 4
(2) WHAT I BELIEVE has been on an insane form spree and there's no reason he can't take another. (5) SHADIOS will be firing to the front and trying to take these the distance, but don't expect 19/1 this week. (6) IDEALBEACH HANOVER showed some forward progress last out for the first time in a while.
Race 5
(6) DALHOUSIE DAVE got hung to dry last week and lingered around for a while before tiring, still pacing in 1:53 3/5; Bartlett's back driving tonight and they teamed up for his two local wins. (1) TEXICAN N moves back inside and will be right there throughout. (5) DREAM OUT LOUD N drops another notch in class and clearly is a player.
Race 6
(2) ROCK ABSORBER has been razor-sharp since being claimed by Allard and he will look for four straight versus this competitive bunch. (3) BETTOR REASON N stormed home for the victory last out, his second off the Milici claim. (7) DOJEA SOLO has sharp early speed which will help him overcome the outside post.
Race 7
(1) SCOTT ROCKS returns locally looking for three straight and has controlling speed from the best post. (6) SAPPHIRE CITY hasn't been at his sharpest of late but he still merits consideration with this type. (5) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH was shuffled last out but I'm not sure how much he had left anyway; Bamond trainee has a nice move that needs to be timed right.
Race 8
(6) THE REAL ONE had plenty of pace last week but no chance; Lachance can storm by late with any sort of live setup. (2) FIRST CLASS HORSE qualified effectively and we all know what kind of raw speed he possesses; don't ignore. (1) ROCK N ROLL WORLD gets needed post relief and we'll see if the 4-year-old can go with these.
Race 9
(1) BJ'S GUY gets the best post in a field with some question marks; consider him if the price is right. (6) P H SUPERCAM was outfinished off a two-move effort last out and I suppose he could be considered the one to beat. (8) RAMPAGE JACKSON has gone from a $12,500 claimer to being assigned the eight hole in the Preferred....what a story! He's got blast-off early speed to get good position.
Race 10
(3) FEEL THE NEED A has become a bit of an erratic type since making a big splash upon arrival in the U.S.; he's worth a look here in a field lacking a standout. (7) CLASS SIX has been very sharp in his last three and would be my top pick if not for the poor post. (1) ROLAND N ROCK was a solid pocket-sitting winner versus lesser last week but I'm not too confident with him versus some better foes.
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 400 - 1152 / $2,182.10
BEST BETS: 52 - 93 / $172.00
Best Bet: GRIN FOR MONEY (1st)
Spot Play: DALHOUSIE DAVE (5th)
Race 1
(5) GRIN FOR MONEY took care of business at odds-on upon arriving from Canada and joining the Milici barn; he faces a very suspect group here and can easily repeat. (6) MAGIC MANNY could show more in his second start off the vacation. (4) UNION MAN HANOVER has been empty in his two starts off the claim for his new barn but he does face softer tonight.
Race 2
(1) FAMEOUS WESTERN has raced well in all recent efforts and lands another good post; veteran can trip out from this spot. (4) SKY IS THE LIMIT gets Brennan back in the bike and they teamed up to beat lesser two back. (2) MACHTU N is probably best here but has been a bit flat recently.
Race 3
(3) GYPSY LEATHER hasn't had the easiest of trips in his two starts off the Robertson claim but he drops a notch in class and draws better. (1) PAMS LEGACY finished decently last week and could be rounding back to form. (7) JUSTICE MY WAY can go with this type and could be considered underneath at a big price.
Race 4
(2) WHAT I BELIEVE has been on an insane form spree and there's no reason he can't take another. (5) SHADIOS will be firing to the front and trying to take these the distance, but don't expect 19/1 this week. (6) IDEALBEACH HANOVER showed some forward progress last out for the first time in a while.
Race 5
(6) DALHOUSIE DAVE got hung to dry last week and lingered around for a while before tiring, still pacing in 1:53 3/5; Bartlett's back driving tonight and they teamed up for his two local wins. (1) TEXICAN N moves back inside and will be right there throughout. (5) DREAM OUT LOUD N drops another notch in class and clearly is a player.
Race 6
(2) ROCK ABSORBER has been razor-sharp since being claimed by Allard and he will look for four straight versus this competitive bunch. (3) BETTOR REASON N stormed home for the victory last out, his second off the Milici claim. (7) DOJEA SOLO has sharp early speed which will help him overcome the outside post.
Race 7
(1) SCOTT ROCKS returns locally looking for three straight and has controlling speed from the best post. (6) SAPPHIRE CITY hasn't been at his sharpest of late but he still merits consideration with this type. (5) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH was shuffled last out but I'm not sure how much he had left anyway; Bamond trainee has a nice move that needs to be timed right.
Race 8
(6) THE REAL ONE had plenty of pace last week but no chance; Lachance can storm by late with any sort of live setup. (2) FIRST CLASS HORSE qualified effectively and we all know what kind of raw speed he possesses; don't ignore. (1) ROCK N ROLL WORLD gets needed post relief and we'll see if the 4-year-old can go with these.
Race 9
(1) BJ'S GUY gets the best post in a field with some question marks; consider him if the price is right. (6) P H SUPERCAM was outfinished off a two-move effort last out and I suppose he could be considered the one to beat. (8) RAMPAGE JACKSON has gone from a $12,500 claimer to being assigned the eight hole in the Preferred....what a story! He's got blast-off early speed to get good position.
Race 10
(3) FEEL THE NEED A has become a bit of an erratic type since making a big splash upon arrival in the U.S.; he's worth a look here in a field lacking a standout. (7) CLASS SIX has been very sharp in his last three and would be my top pick if not for the poor post. (1) ROLAND N ROCK was a solid pocket-sitting winner versus lesser last week but I'm not too confident with him versus some better foes.
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (1st) Discreet Encounter, 8-1
(3rd) C d'Cat, 7-2
Charles Town (3rd) Reata's Cork, 6-1
(6th) Torcida, 3-1
Churchill Downs (3rd) My Eminence, 4-1
(8th) Lenstar, 3-1
Del Mar (1st) Aztec Warrior, 3-1
(4th) Little Scotty, 4-1
Delta Downs (2nd) Mi Padre, 6-1
(6th) Green Paint, 3-1
Golden Gate Fields (8th) Upended, 7-2
(9th) Kelly, 3-1
Gulfstream Park West (3rd) Front Loaded, 3-1
(6th) Surprise Wedding, 9-2
Hawthorne (2nd) War News, 3-1
(4th) Hollarforadollar, 6-1
Laurel Park (2nd) Wildcat Rising, 6-1
(4th) Iredell, 9-2
Mahoning Valley (7th) Nikispring, 5-1
(8th) Old Key West, 3-1
Mountaineer (3rd) Scotty's Gotta Go, 8-1
(9th) Geometric, 6-1
Parx (4th) Bensational, 9-2
(7th) Secretive, 8-1
Penn National (3rd) Key Cheyne, 7-2
(8th) Money Tree, 7-2
Remington Park (5th) Tenspeed, 7-2
(8th) Gold Hawk, 4-1
Retama Park (2nd) Atlantico Norte, 4-1
(4th) Bourbon Best, 8-1
Turf Paradise (5th) Qahr, 7-2
(6th) Lonely Lover, 5-1
Woodbine (3rd) Red n' Nasty, 5-1
(6th) Superduper Sky, 3-1
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (1st) Discreet Encounter, 8-1
(3rd) C d'Cat, 7-2
Charles Town (3rd) Reata's Cork, 6-1
(6th) Torcida, 3-1
Churchill Downs (3rd) My Eminence, 4-1
(8th) Lenstar, 3-1
Del Mar (1st) Aztec Warrior, 3-1
(4th) Little Scotty, 4-1
Delta Downs (2nd) Mi Padre, 6-1
(6th) Green Paint, 3-1
Golden Gate Fields (8th) Upended, 7-2
(9th) Kelly, 3-1
Gulfstream Park West (3rd) Front Loaded, 3-1
(6th) Surprise Wedding, 9-2
Hawthorne (2nd) War News, 3-1
(4th) Hollarforadollar, 6-1
Laurel Park (2nd) Wildcat Rising, 6-1
(4th) Iredell, 9-2
Mahoning Valley (7th) Nikispring, 5-1
(8th) Old Key West, 3-1
Mountaineer (3rd) Scotty's Gotta Go, 8-1
(9th) Geometric, 6-1
Parx (4th) Bensational, 9-2
(7th) Secretive, 8-1
Penn National (3rd) Key Cheyne, 7-2
(8th) Money Tree, 7-2
Remington Park (5th) Tenspeed, 7-2
(8th) Gold Hawk, 4-1
Retama Park (2nd) Atlantico Norte, 4-1
(4th) Bourbon Best, 8-1
Turf Paradise (5th) Qahr, 7-2
(6th) Lonely Lover, 5-1
Woodbine (3rd) Red n' Nasty, 5-1
(6th) Superduper Sky, 3-1
