Horse Racing 10-31-16

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 1:56 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$2700 - F& M $4000 CLAIMING/ALLOWANCES J TAGGART JR 1 OVER 2,8 M MERTON 6 OVER 4
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 RED EYE BLUE CHIP 5/2
# 6 PITA 9/2
# 5 FLASHY 6/1

RED EYE BLUE CHIP will have you running to the cashier's window here. Cannot put a finger on it, but lean toward this mare for a play. May be the most solid in the group here, showing very good numbers of late. Avg speed is a solid 76. Certainly should be given a look based on the really strong TrackMaster Speed Rating recorded in the last contest. PITA - Heads into this race with very nice TrackMaster class ratings as compared to the field of starters - could be worth a shot. This trainer, and the driver Merton, go together like The Smothers Brothers. Their results together are amazing. FLASHY - One of the most solid win rates with this driver/trainer make this mare dangerous. Pace figures say this race should shape up nicely for this mare. Looking for a big effort.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 10:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$25000 - NON-WINNERS OF 6 P-M RACES OR $60,000 LIFETIME. 2,3& 4 YEAR OLD FILLIES & MARES
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 MAJOR MILLIE 8/5
# 2 AMERICAN IVY 7/2
# 6 MOTHER OF ART 4/1

All signs point to MAJOR MILLIE for the selection. This gathering could very well be controlled by this filly. Just one look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. Unquestionably the class of the pack with an average rating of 83. A nice play. Is a strong win contender given the 88 TrackMaster speed fig from her most recent competition. AMERICAN IVY - The 2 post is on fire here at Yonkers Raceway. More wins than normal. Been competing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 82). MOTHER OF ART - Have good feelings this one might thieve in this event.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 31, 2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 6 CAPE FINISTERRE 8/1

# 9 SEA ZAR RUN 5/1

# 4 MISTER EUROPA 8/1

CAPE FINISTERRE looks decent to best this group especially at a such a nice price. I expect a very strong performance from this horse whose trainer has one of the top return on investment percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. With one of the strongest jock in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. SEA ZAR RUN - Will probably compete soundly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. Clouston and Parker have a very good win percentage together. MISTER EUROPA - With a nice class rating average of 85, has one of the most respectable class advantages in this field. Could beat this field given the 72 speed rating recorded in his last outing.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 QUEMATIERRAS 3/1

# 4 BEER THIRTY 4/1

# 5 ZOOMIN FOR KASH 8/5

My selection in this race is QUEMATIERRAS. He has been travelling admirably as of late while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures. This gelding has a good win percent in short races. With Wooten controlling the reins on him, this gelding will probably be able to break out early in this race. BEER THIRTY - In against a much softer lot than last time out. He has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the most favorable in this group of horses. ZOOMIN FOR KASH - Have to play this gelding with the formidable earnings per start in short events. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this field.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:00pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#12 PROBABLY (ML=5/2)
#11 GOOD SONG (ML=7/2)
#3 DANCEWHILEITSTORMS (ML=9/2)


PROBABLY - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. Trainer Sullivan moves this thoroughbred down in class to face a less competitive field. Look for a good effort at this level. The 67 latest race speed fig looks mighty good on paper. GOOD SONG - When this jock and conditioner work together you have to take a look. Pilares and Poole have been great together. The October 12th event at Belterra Park was at a class level of (77). Dropping to a lower class rank considerably, so she should be in a good position to win. A repeat of that most recent race on October 12th where she registered a speed figure of 67 looks lofty enough to prove victorious in this race. DANCEWHILEITSTORMS - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LITTLE MISS MORGAN (ML=8/1),

LITTLE MISS MORGAN - Tough to support any horse that runs as well as she did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #12 PROBABLY on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

12 with [3,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,11,12] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,11,12] with [3,11,12] with [3,5,6,11,12] with [3,5,6,11,12] Total Cost: $36
 
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Mohawk: Monday 10/31 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 5,6/1,8/2,4,8/4,5/1,7,10 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 4,5/1,7,10/7,8,9/5,6,8 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 3,8,9,10/2,3,9/1,5,6/2,3 = $72

MEET STATS: 450 - 1333 / $2351.60 BEST BETS: 71 - 122 / $221.70

SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 122 / $195.20

Best Bet: DRIFT PANIC (1st)

Spot Play: SHADOW MARGEAUX (11th)


Race 1

(6) DRIFT PANIC has won five straight after starting her career with 13 straight losses. She goes for a potent barn here in her first Mohawk start; top call. (5) DANCIN IN THE NUDE has been racing against tougher for several starts and she gets a good post to work with here; using. (8) TRILIFE has also faced better, but the vet scratch and outer post here are factors that could work against her. (4) NEVER ANY DOUBT missed three weeks prior to her last start now she goes six days later this time; consider for exotics.

Race 2

(8) WARAWEE PROTON is at the top of his game and he doesn't need to lead throughout to win here; slight nod. (1) TAURUS DU PARC will push the rail and no doubt try to take these all the way. If the choice gets hung out early, it improves his chances greatly. (4) INCREADABLE FRANK has been racing decently at this level ad he is a threat from off-the-pace here. (9) GIRL DRAMA is another that will be passing rivals late, but she may get too far back early from this post; minor share predicted.

Race 3

(2) CONNIE MACH made a big move on a wet track last time but she tired late. She could race much closer to her effort two back where she took a new life's mark if the track is fast here. (8) DOCS SAUSILITO was part of a wicked early pace in a race where the leaders all stopped late last time. She could rebound at a good price here with a different trip. (4) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX has been racing great and she beat older in the Flamboro Mares Preferred last time. She should be included in the Pick 5 in her current sharp form. (6) DEWAR N SODA should be the early leader here and she can stick around for a slice.

Race 4

(4) TEMPUS SEELSTER went some big trips down south in September and she fits well here in the first leg of this stakes series. (5) LADY MARINA has been idle since June but she had a sharp qualifier on October 20th and she has shown she can win racing off the shelf; using. (2) DOCS DIVA was nailed late by a class-dropper last time and she is sharp, but her record would suggest she is more likely to take a minor share. (1) TOP ROYAL should be heard from leaving from the inside; consider for vertical wagers.

Race 5

(7) WORK THAT MAGIC has been racing great from close range. She should be tough in here. (1) I WANT KANDY has built her confidence up racing at Flamboro for several starts. She should be an early speed threat in here, at a minimum. (10) MAGICAL VALENTINE missed four weeks between starts before her last race and understandably tired late. She can be a threat here at a square price. (4) JAGERSRO improved her late speed last time and she can share here off a similar trip.

Race 6

(7) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER went a long way uncovered last week, but he showed grit and determination digging in late for the win; call to repeat. (9) WHO DOESNT is another that went a long trip and he almost survived it, too; using. (8) GIVE EM HECK wasn't beaten far by the choice now he goes for Moreau first time off the claim. He is another to toss on your horizontal tickets. (5) LIFEIMITATESART - a veteran who raced for several years here at the start of his career - has a solid record this season and can be a threat if he is ready to go off the shelf here.

Race 7

(6) LIGHT FT RD ran into a rival on the turn and went off stride for a few strides on the far turn last week, which likely cost him a win. He steps up slightly here which should help his price. I'll give him the nod. (8) JENKINS CREEK squandered a big lead late to one rival now he comes up tagged for the top trainer; using. (5) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE could benefit by moving to the middle of the gate here. He can beat these if he is positioned better at the 3/4 pole. (4) NOBETTORPLACEBE is likely to take a smaller share again.

Race 8

(3) WHAMBAMTHANKYOUMAM went a long mile last time after missing a month's action. An expected better trip puts her right there this time. (10) SUNRISE AVENUE is another that returns much quicker this time and she can be a big threat here despite the post. (9) ONE TOO MANY is worth a look here off the shelf with a sharp qualifier in tow. (8) ABSOLUT SEELSTER is in sharp form and could better this prediction with a decent trip.

Race 9

(2) AWESOMENESS roared up to just miss at big odds last week. He'll be a shorter price tonight, but he has a big shot vs. these. (8) EAST END has been racing okay vs. some decent company. He fits well here and should be a big factor. (3) LYONS SANDS - winner of 4 of his last 5 - is sure to be sent hard off the gate here and he is the one to chase down. (1) NEW STANDARD should pass most of these late to make the ticket.

Race 10

(5) YORK SEELSTEER made a threatening move on the final turn last week, but the pace wasn't slowing enough. Expect a more aggressive steer this time. (6) PAR INTENDED was closing well when a well-beaten third in a quick mile last week. He should be much closer at the finish here. (1) LONEWOLF CURRIER is an able veteran that comes up tagged for his move to Mohawk; using. (7) LETS WAIT AND SEE should be closing for a piece again.

Race 11

(3) SHADOW MARGEAUX took lots of play last week then won a three-pronged battle for early command with the prize being gaining the lead on a night where the front was stopping every race. I'll stick with him and hope for a price here. (2) HOUSE OF TERROR drops off a decent start and he should be closer here. (7) B N BAD can use his good early foot to get position and then stick around for a share. (6) KINMUNDYS STRYKER was flying late at Flamboro. He can crash the exotics at a price here. (5) MILLIONDOLLARCELL can pass many of these late if he isn't stacked up on excess cover.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:43pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#8 NORM THE GIANT (ML=8/1)
#1 YO SOY EL LOBO (ML=5/2)


NORM THE GIANT - This jock and handler have a profitable return on investment when they combine forces. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is up against an easier field than last time around the track at Parx Racing. I like that recent race on Oct 17th at Parx Racing where he ran second. YO SOY EL LOBO - Strong return on investment for this jock and trainer duo. Last two speed ratings (90, 90) were dominant. Anything close to that in this race and this one could win easily. Earnings per race entered is something that I feel can be a valuable factor. This racer is ranked number one in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 THOMAS KNIGHT (ML=4/1), #7 P J'S BAD BOY (ML=9/2), #5 THOUGHT PARTNER (ML=5/1),

THOMAS KNIGHT - Difficult to put any money on this gelding on the front end. Likes to land in the top three though. P J'S BAD BOY - The lack of works has to make one concerned despite the good effort in the last event. This gelding registered a speed rating in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event. THOUGHT PARTNER - Last ran on October 2nd at Laurel, finishing sixth. Not likely to perk up off of that performance in today's race. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a better rating than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint. Acquired his best rating last time around the track, but the track conditions may have played a major role in the outcome.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 NORM THE GIANT to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
 
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Yonkers: Monday 10/31 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 273 - 1147 / $1,780.00

BEST BETS: 31 - 107 / $148.40

Best Bet: SAIL TO THE BEACH (9th)

Spot Play: NIPS BEACH GIRL (11th)


Race 1

(2) SANTIAGO STYLE Sharp in his last two starts here and figures to put his best foot forward. (3) CARLOS DANGER fits well in this event and the 3-hole should put him right in the mix. (6) VINOVIO was caught for win honors last time out.

Race 2

(1) TIME CLOCK HANOVER gets serious post relief where this filly got the job done two trips ago; ready for action. (2) STONEBRIDGE PEARL Sophomore miss has good speed and should handle the half-mile oval. (5) PHOOS GIRL put in a mild rally for the show spot recently.

Race 3

(5) WITHOUT A DAUT showed good early pace last time around and she is very capable of getting the job done with a favorable trip. (2) GIVEMEYOURHEART closed well to grab the show spot last time out. (6) RACE WITH GRACE came wide to get up for the place spot last week.

Race 4

(2) IDEAL PRINCESS is razor sharp scoring her second straight victory and now she moves to the 2-hole; the one to deny. (5) WINNERS OVER is knocking at the door based on her last three outings. (1) LIVE ODDS came up the cones to grab the victory last out.

Race 5

(4) MARLA MCGIVERS ran in a good fourth and that might be an indication she is ready to greet the cameraman for pictures. (3) LO HOLD A MOONBEAN was sent down the road last time out for all the glory. (5) FROG POND PRINCESS just missed the victory in her last two starts by a nose and a head respectively; watch out.

Race 6

(7) DERECHO got the job done going away last out and this gelding is in fine form and catches a weak group tonight; the pick. (2) CLASSIC BREEZE has done well in his last three outings at Freehold; threat. (1) GRAND THEFT gets post relief and that should help his cause.

Race 7

(1) HEARTS WILD gets Brennan and now moves to the rail so this filly can boss these at her best. (4) SOUTHWIND TANGO led every step of the way for all the glory last time around. (5) UPSIDE SURPRISE is back at Yonkers where she closed strongly for the victory two trips ago.

Race 8

(5) WINNA WINNA has hit the board 13 of 20 starts this year and he put in a sharp effort last out; can take this for team Brennan/Burke. (3) WINNING LINC has wheeled off three straight victories and appears to be the one to beat. (2) BOOK BINGE got the job done wire to window in his Pocono finale.

Race 9

Showdown against last week's contestants and (5) SAIL TO THE BEACH was awesome in her last victory here. Pacing miss will be odds on and tough to down. (3) HOT LEMONADE did not race badly in her most recent outing. (6) SHEZAREALDEAL could not get past the top two picks last out but she is very capable of making a quick turnaround.

Race 10

(3) SHINOBU HANOVER came outside to get up for win honors last time out and this gelding might have found his winning form to grab two in a row. (1) LONE SURVIVOR put in a nice run to grab the victory at Pocono last week; dangerous. (4) JK HEAVEN SENT was used in the early stages and tired badly last out but he is better than his last flop so watch out.

Race 11

(3) NIPS BEACH GIRL gets post relief and should show more speed in this event; ready for glory with Sears in the bike. (4) MAJOR MILLIE moves down the ladder and Bartlett gets the call on this sophomore filly; big threat. (2) AMERICAN IVY is knocking at the door based on her last two tries; not out of this for Team Miller.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Finger Lakes (2nd) Stone Crab, 3-1
(7th) Ghost Ship, 5-1


Mahoning Valley (4th) Classic Reward, 7-2
(8th) Good Song, 7-2


Mountaineer (1st) Nickers in a Twist, 8-1
(8th) Fightmaster, 3-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Zen's Sunrise, 3-1
(9th) Gypsy Fire, 4-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Good Company, 7-2
(7th) Angel de Amour, 6-1
 

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