At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
We say goodbye to Belmont Park and Keeneland this weekend, but next Friday Aqueduct opens for its fall/winter meeting and of course we have the Breeders’ Cup next Friday and Saturday from Santa Anita.
Closing day at Keeneland is this afternoon, with a good 10-race card highlighted by the $200,000 Fayette (G2) at nine furlongs on the main track.
A field of eight line up led by 6-5 morning line favorite Noble Bird, who took the field gate to wire to win the Lukas Classic in his last outing at Churchill Downs.
Earlier this spring the Mark Casse trainee earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Pimlico Special (G3) by 11 ¼ lengths.
Belmont Park features three stakes on Saturday’s card. The fall championship meeting concludes on Sunday.
I whine plenty about short fields in stakes at Belmont Park but that is not the case for today’s $200,000 Bold Ruler (G3) which drew a solid field of 13 runners that will go seven furlongs on the main track.
The Chad Brown duo of Economic Model (3-1) and Threefiveindia (6-1) look formidable.
The $100,000 Awad drew a field of nine juveniles that will travel one mile on turf. Again, Brown could be the one to beat. He saddles Heaven Is Waiting, who was sixth in the Bourbon (G3) at Keeneland in his last start.
Harlan’s Harmony (5-1) looks like a player if he gets a better trip today than in his fifth-place finish in the Summer (G2) last out at Woodbine.
The stakes action on Saturday at Belmont Park starts in the fourth race with the $200,000 Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3) which drew a field of seven fillies and mares that go 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
Lewis Bay is the 6-5 morning line favorite for Brown. The filly makes her first start since running fourth in the Test (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 6.
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:55 ET)
#1 Now in a Drive 6-1
#5 Oiseau de Guerre 2-1
#8 Concomitant 8-1
#9 Kahramani 5-1
Analysis: Now in a Drive put in a good effort in a third place finish in his debut at the Spa going long on turf. The winner J.S. Choice came back to run second in the Pilgrim (G3) in his next outing here on Oct. 1. The $150,000 Keeneland purchase is by Tiznow out of the stakes winner Ocean Drive ($803,986) who has dropped five winners and four have won on turf, with a pair of stakes winners, top earner West Ocean ($355,840).
Oiseau de Guerre had a clear lead heading for home in his debut but got run down late, settling for the runner up spot. Brown thought enough of that effort to step him up last out where he ran sixth in the Pilgrim. He is back in the maiden ranks here and the logical one to beat. He is by War Front out of a stakes placed Arch mare that has dropped two dirt winners but no turf winners to date.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,5,8,9
TRI: 1,5 / 1,5,8,9 / 1,5,8,9,12
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 The Bold Ruler G3 (5:08 ET)
#4 Economic Model 3-1
#2 Threefiveindia 6-1
#6 Stallwalkin' Dude 7-2
#8 Ami's Flatter 5-1
Analysis: Economic Model tracked thee early pace and finished up well for the runner up spot last out in the King's Bishop (G1), catching a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. The winner Defrong took the field gate to wire for the Baffert barn and will be one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) next Saturday. Our top pick has landed in the exacta in 6 of his 7 career starts and while his stakes win came in the Easy Goer going 1 1/16 miles he did run second in the seven furlong Swale (G2) at Gulfstream Park back in January in his second career start.
Threefiveindia stumbled coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace form the inside (often not the place to be at Philly) and rallied for third in the Gallant Bob behind a couple of runners being pointed toward the Sprint. The Brown trainee has earned solid numbers in his last two starts and still looks as if he has some upside. Castellano sticks as he makes his third start of his current form cycle and should be a fair price.
Stallwalkin' Dude was a good second behind Joking and two back third behind A.P. Indian, a couple of solid sprinters that are Sprint bound. He earned a career top speed fig last out in his runner up finish in the Vosburgh (G1). He was only beaten 4 3/4 lengths when eighth in last year's Sprint. The Jacobson trainee has earned nearly $1 million without a graded stakes win.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,6,8 / 2,4,6,8,13
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 The Fayette G2 (5:30 ET)
#8 Divining Rod 5-1
#2 Noble Bird 6-5
#3 Kasaqui 6-1
#7 Iron Fist 5-1
Analysis: Divining Rod came back off a year layoff with back to back wins at Philly, beating Alw-2 and Alw-3 company, last out by just a neck. The colt won the Lexington (G3) over the main track here last spring and was third in the Preakness (G1) and beaten just a head when third in the Ohio Derby. He needs to run back to those numbers here, but I'll take a positive view with the sharp Delacour barn calling the shots and Geroux picks up the call.
Noble Bird took the field gate to wire to win the Lukas Classic last out over a wet track at Churchill Downs. He bounced back after getting beaten double digit lengths two and three back in Grade 1 company. He ran huge winning the Pimlico Special (G1) four back earning a 110 Beyer. He looks back on track and Casse finds a great spot for him here but his price is going to be on the light side.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,3,7,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,3,7,8 / 2,3,6,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #8 Concomitant 8-1
R2: #9 Prime Time Man 10-1
R5: #7 Altar Boy 10-1
R5: #6 Grey Fox 15-1
R7: #3 Takaful 8-1
R8: #3 No Texting 10-1
R8: #5 Lead by Example 10-1
R10: #5 Full Sum Prisum 15-1
Good luck today!