Horse Racing 1-5-17

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At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

A field of seven was entered for Saturday’s $100,000 Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, the next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The race kicks off the major prep races for Derby hopefuls at Santa Anita. The other races the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) on Feb. 4, the $400,000 San Felipe (G2) on Mar. 11 and the marquee event of the meeting, the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1) on Apr. 8.

The John Shirreffs trained Gormley is looking to bounce back off a disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he faded to finish seventh at 5-1, beaten 16 ¼ lengths by the winner Classic Empire.

The colt had won the Frontrunner (G1) at Santa Anita on Oct. 1 in gate to wire fashion in his second career start. That race made him one of the early betting favorites for the Kentucky Derby (G1) but his priced has drifted up, currently at 55-1.

His main foe in the Sham figures to be the Bob Baffert trained American Anthem, an impressive maiden winner in his debut at Del Mar on Dec. 3. The colt was a $435,000 purchase, by Bodemeister out of a A.P. Indy mare.

The colt is down to 25-1 in early Derby wagering, but that could change after Saturday.

I will have selections for the Sham in Saturday’s column.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md $20,000 (12:35 ET)
#9 Great Skellig 3-1
#3 Bourbon City 2-1
#4 Twistcat Candy 6-1
#1 Leroy's Image 10-1

Analysis: Great Skillig raced near the back of the pack early last out in his local debut and came with a good late rally to finish fourth, beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot for the Clement barn. The gelding was third two back at Belmont Park over yielding ground against $40,000 state breds. It looks as if the extra ground here going 7 1/2 will suit this guy. He is out of a stakes placed Danehill mare that has dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner.

Bourbon City returns off a four month break here for the Romans barn that is 10% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The gelding was a decent third two back at a mile at Churchill Downs and last out checked in seventh over yielding ground at the Spa against open $40,000 maiden claimers. The winner of that race was Twenty Four Seven, who beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in his next outing on Sept. 25. This guy is out of a Saint Ballado mare that has dropped four winners including a couple of turf winners.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 1,3,4,9
TRI: 3,9 / 1,3,4,9 / 1,3,4,7,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 OClm $62,500C (4:32 ET)
#8 Summation Time 9-5
#6 Captain Gaughen 4-1
#2 Run for Logistics 3-1
#7 Platinum Prince 8-1

Analysis: Summation Time tracked the early pace, battled on gamely in the stretch and cold not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish last out in the Gin Rummy at GP West. He was nearly six lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and his last trip over the turf here was a good second in the Sunshine Millions Turf Sprint last January. Looks well spotted here for Clement.

Captain Gaughen checked in sixth last out going two turns against NY bred Alw-2 optional claimers and cuts back to a sprint. He makes his first start for the Servis barn that is 47% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. He has run well in turf sprints, his last win coming at six furlongs at Belmont Park against Alw-2 foes. The barn hits at a 37% clip (with a +ROI) overall in turf sprints.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 2,6,7,8
TRI: 6,8 / 2,6,7,8 / 2,3,6,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: Leroy’s Image 10-1
R2: #6 Starship Impulse 8-1
R3: #2 Latent Princess 8-1
R6: #8 In Closing 10-1
R7: #12 All About Yasom 15-1
R8: #12 Slava 15-1
R8: #2 Gold Crescent 8-1
R9: #7 Platinum Prince 8-1
R10: #5 Sigmet 8-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 5:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$7000 - HORSES/COLTS/GELDINGS CLAIMING $15,000 WITH ALLOWANCES
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 RALBAR 5/2
# 5 MOVIE IDOL 7/1
# 1 JL JOE 7/1

Look no further than RALBAR as the wager in this one. The brain trust saw this horse's name in a newspaper. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager. That 86 speed figure clocked in the most recent race puts this solid standardbred in the mix this time. Win percent for this driver/trainer is a sparkling 24 percent - strong chance. MOVIE IDOL - Starters win from this post at Dover Downs with better than average regularity, suggesting this tremendous play. Seems to have a competitive class edge based on the standardbreds he has raced against. JL JOE - When the trainer Ell puts Stafford up for the drive good things happen. All you need to do is look at the 8 pct return on investment.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 3:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$3300 - FILLIES & MARES NON-WINNERS $1,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $500 HORSES THAT RACED FOR PURSE OF $6,500 OR HIGHER LAST 2 STS INEL. AE: N/W 3 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 7 DOUBLE JOY 2/1
# 1 FOUR STARZ ROE 3/1
# 2 SMOOTH FINISH 8/1

DOUBLE JOY sure does look ready to score. She has been racing solidly and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the best in the group of horses. This mare has been squaring off versus some of the most competitive horses in this field recently. Certainly should be given a look based on the good speed fig earned in the last gathering. FOUR STARZ ROE - When starting from the 1 slot, an above average win percentage has resulted. This standardbred has shown us some prior ability, just look at the 79 avg class statistic. Should play well today. SMOOTH FINISH - The group always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning statistic is confirmation of that.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 30

FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 5, 2016 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 5, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 PITONISA 2/1

# 5 EL TRAKETO 4/1

# 4 MUSA BORICUA 3/1

I've got to go with PITONISA. Should hit the board without any trouble. This field is much less demanding than the last one she ran against. Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. EL TRAKETO - Has respectable front-end speed and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. This field is much easier than the last one he was up against. MUSA BORICUA - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 GREAT SKELLIG 3/1

# 1 LEROY'S IMAGE 10/1

# 6 EL GLOBO 30/1

GREAT SKELLIG is the best bet in this race. May best this field here, showing strong figures of late. I expect a quite good performance from this racer whose conditioner has one of the top return on investment percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last competition. LEROY'S IMAGE - Looks solid to be close to the front end at the first call.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:43pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#5 MY BOY TOY (ML=8/1)
#7 MAGICAL CONNECTION (ML=7/5)


MY BOY TOY - I have to figure that today's shorter distance should help this gelding. On board this entrant on Nov 9th and Cora is back again in the irons in today's race. The jockey/handler twosome of Cora and Kotenko has a strong return on investment together. Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to his last race at Penn National where he finished sixth on a track listed as good. Should improve this time around. MAGICAL CONNECTION - Pinero is up for another contest today after riding aboard this horse for the first time on Dec 26th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should profit from today's shorter trip. This gelding is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Gelding is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big race today. Look at this pattern of improvement. 1/38/52 are the last three speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 L G CRASH (ML=5/2), #2 LITTLE FRANKIE L (ML=4/1), #1 PERCEVAL (ML=6/1),

L G CRASH - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as often as this one does. This gelding hasn't had any recent success in sprint races. Not easy to play him in this event. LITTLE FRANKIE L - Can't bet on this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint clash recently. PERCEVAL - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this one when examining the most recent efforts. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better speed fig than last out to battle in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 MY BOY TOY to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turfway Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,100 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#8 HE'S A DANDY CANDY (ML=7/2)
#6 LANGTANZ (ML=8/1)


HE'S A DANDY CANDY - Mojica rode this thoroughbred for the first time in the last race and comes right back this time. This gelding is in nice physical condition. Finished second on December 17th. Just see his last speed figure, 81. That one fits in this bunch. LANGTANZ - Jurado brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. Jurado drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping information to think this animal has a shot at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FOREST MIST (ML=2/1), #7 STATELY OAK (ML=4/1), #4 COLTON FIFTY ONE (ML=5/1),

FOREST MIST - A pattern of decreasing Equibase speed figures 88/83/72 for this vulnerable equine. STATELY OAK - Garnered a mediocre speed figure last time out in an $8,000 Claiming race on Nov 25th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. COLTON FIFTY ONE - A 'bounce' is likely to happen for this horse this time around. May rebound next time.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 HE'S A DANDY CANDY to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:20 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $58,000.00 PURSE

#4 LIZ'S CABLE GIRL
#2 TIZ RAE ANNA
#3 HOPONTHEBUSGUS
#1 SUMMER OF JOY

#4 LIZ'S CABLE GIRL is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field sprinting at today's distance of 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, has excellent early speed abilities to compliment for this inner track sprint, and comes off a blistering, 11-length "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "first asking," 37 days ago at Parx Racing. #2 TIZ RAE ANNA, a 4-1 shot, has hit the board in both of her last two outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 2nd race back.
 
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Spot Plays

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (4th) Mr. Charles, 7-2
(8th) Gun for Hire, 3-1


Delta Downs (1st) Witt’s Town, 5-1
(2nd) Say Charlie, 4-1


Fair Grounds (3rd) Noble Doss, 3-1
(6th) Alivia’s Lion, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (5th) True Pleasure, 5-1
(7th) Starship Thor, 7-2


Penn National (3rd) Sho Me Success, 3-1
(8th) Philandthromister, 4-1


Turfway Park (1st) Wild Card Hit, 3-1
(2nd) Truly Trendy, 9-2
 

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