At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
California Chrome was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for Saturday’s $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1), but it looks as if horseplayers are not too keen on his outside draw and Arrogate is taking more action in early betting.
Arrogate is down to -125 in advanced wagering while California Chrome has drifted up to +125.
There is a short run to the first turn at Gulfstream Park at the 1 1/8 mile distance, putting California Chrome at a disadvantage.
Arrogate drew the rail, which may not be much better as there is some speed to his outside, which may force the hand of his jockey Mike Smith to avoid getting caught in behind runners going into the first turn.
Noble Bird has taken some action, down to +1600. The Mark Casse trainee figures to be the pacesetter and has run some big numbers. He won the Fayette (G2) in October with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure and earned a 110 winning the Pimlico Special (G3) last May.
Neolithic is currently at odds of +2000 and seems to be the “wise guy” runner in the Pegasus field. He was an impressive winner versus first level allowance foes in his last outing after a second in the Discovery (G3). His last two Beyers are 101 and 100.
As I write this on Thursday evening I still have a few hours of handicapping to do on Saturday’s 12-race card that features seven stakes and plenty of full fields.
I will have my full card report along with my selections and analysis for the Pegasus World Cup available by Friday afternoon.
Latest Wagering Odds for the Pegasus World Cup
Arrogate -125
California Chrome +125
Eragon +5500
Keen Ice +2000
Neolithic +2000
Semper Fortis +4000
Shaman Ghost +2800
War Story +5500
Prayer For Relief +12000
Noble Bird +1600
War Envoy +15000
Breaking Lucky +2800
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Alw $50,000 (12:05 ET)
2 E Z's Mistress 7-2
4 Loving Valentina 8-5
3 Faith N Hope 5-1
7 Hello Juliet 9-2
Analysis: E Z's Mistress tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out for a $35,000 tag, beaten a half-length while nearly seven lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. She was an impressive gate to wire winner three back in her second career start at GP West earning a solid number. She has just four starts under her belt and appears to have more upside than the chalk in here.
Loving Valentina took 11 tries to break her maiden and then she reeled off three straight wins against $16,000 foes. She was claimed out of her last outing by the Navarro barn that is 22% winners first off the claim. She won going a mile in the slop last out but her first three sins all came in sprints. She is the logical one to bet but her price is going to be very much on the light side here.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 2,4 / 2,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 8 Clm $12,500N2L (4:02 ET)
7 Money Market 3-1
8 Souper True 6-1
1 Command Peter 2-1
2 Proud Enough 4-1
Analysis: Money Market is back on dirt after checking in fifth last out on turf against $16,000 non-winners of two. The gelding had to steady breaking about three furlongs out and finished evenly. Two back the gelding set the early fractions and held on to the runner up spot. His maiden score came on the fake stuff but willing to give him another look on dirt as he catches a weak looking group. The Walsh barn is 19% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
Souper True was not a threat in a 10th place finish last out in the same race our top picks exits. He is better on dirt and ran solid numbers at Philly three and four back versus tougher. Plesa hits at a 27% clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt. His maiden score came in the mud at Pimlico for a $40,000 tag. The surface switch will suit this gelding.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 1,2,7,8
TRI: 7,8 / 1,2,7,8 / 1,2,5,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R3: #7 Dadandi 10-1
R4: 32 Mo Cash 8-1
R5: #9 Xanto 8-1
R6: #3 I’m Majestic 12-1
R7: #1 Conquest Rapiduno 10-1
R7: #5 Guantanamera 12-1
R9: #2 Greenhorn 8-1
R11: #12 Giannino 12-1
R11: Crazy Frank C 8-1
Good luck today!