At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
The Sunshine Millions is no longer a huge event, with purses cut and no longer on national television, but we still have five stakes on today’s card and plenty of good betting opportunities.
The highlight of the card is the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Classic which is the finale on the 12-race card at Gulfstream Park.
Things could end up chalky as the 7-5 morning line favorite Awesome Slew looks as if he is going to be very tough to beat. The colt is a Grade 3 winner, taking the Smarty Jones at Parx back in September and faced tougher in his last two starts—a fifth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and a third last out in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3).
We have a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race on tap this afternoon as well, a competitive field going in the $200,000 Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds.
A field of 12 entered with 11 likely to start with Saint’s Fan a possible scratch. There are 10-4-2-1 points up for grabs toward entry into the Run for the Roses.
Weather will be a factor as the New Orleans area has been hit by plenty of rain and there is more in the forecast for Saturday.
My selections for the Lecomte are below.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 OClm $25,000N1X (12:00 ET)
#8 Glass House 2-1
#2 Lady Coventry 4-1
#6 April Rose 7-2
#4 Love Flute 8-1
Analysis: Glass House makes her first start since her U.S. debut last April at Keeneland where she was off last and came with a good late rally while wide to finish third, beaten two lengths against Alw-1 foes. The filly broke her maiden at the Curragh in her second career start in a field of 30. The Ward barn is 25% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.
Lady Coventry came up the inside with a good late rally to finish third last out in the Claiming Crown Distaff Dash last out. The runner up My Sister Caro returned to beat $12,500 starter optional claimers in her next outing on Jan. 1. Her lone turf win was against $30,000 non-winners of two here last July. A repeat of her last effort puts her in the mix here.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8 / 2,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 12 The Sunshine Millions Classic (5:35 ET)
#8 Awesome Slew 7-5
#6 Piloting 4-1
#3 Hy Riverside 5-1
#4 We're All Set 6-1
Analysis: Awesome Slew tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a third place finish in the Harlan's Holiday (G3) last out here, beaten a neck by Keen Ice for the runner up spot. The colt drops in with state breds here owns a solid pace profile throughout. Castellano picks up the call for Plesa and this guy is going to be tough to beat in this spot as the short priced favorite.
Piloting set the early fractions and could not match strides in the stretch with the winner in a runner up finish last out in the state bred Millions Classic Preview at GP West. The gelding earned a career top speed fig in the effort. He should be forwardly placed but does not look quick enough early to be on the lead against this group.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8 / 3,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Fair Grounds:
FG Race 11 The Lecomte G3 (5:00 CT)
#9 Running Mate 10-1
#8 Guest Suite 5-1
#5 Untrapped 9-2
#3 Totality 12-1
Running Mate was sent off as the 2-5 chalk last out in the Sugar Bowl here going six furlongs after two big wins to start off his career. He tracked the early pace came in and interfered with a foe nearing the 3/16’s and finished with interest for the runner up spot, unbale to get to the winner in the stretch and then getting DQ’d to third. He won his first two career starts by a combined 13 ¾ lengths and has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out. He is by Creative Cause out of a Street Cry mare, her first foal to race. Three bullet works on the morning tab for Larry Jones. From 2-5 last out to 10-1 today, I’ll take it. He has a decent enough off track pedigree.
Guest Suite was a decent third two back in his stakes debut in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs going a one turn mile. The winner of that race was the highly regarded McCraken, who came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in his next outing on Nov. 26. Next out our second choice dropped in to facer Alw-1 optional claimers going a mile at Churchill Downs and trounced the field by 6 ¼ lengths. He popped a bullet work over the main track here on Jan. 18. By Quality Road out of a Ghostzapper mare, her first foal to race, the two turns should not pose a problem.
Untrapped faces winners and two turns for the first time here as one of three sent out by the Asmussen barn. The colt ran second to Uncontested in his debut, that runner winning the Smarty Jones on Monday at Oaklawn Park. Last out he graduated in his second career start, drawing away to win by 5 ¼ lengths. The two turns is the only question mark. Asmussen is 15% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering:
WIN: #9 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 3,5,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 3,5,8,9 / 3,4,5,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #4 Love Flute 8-1
R2: #6 Scat Arb 8-1
R3: #6 Rontos Lily 8-1
R5: #7 Dopo Lavoro 12-1
R7: #4 He’s the One 8-1
R8: #3 Blackjack Baby 8-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
The Sunshine Millions is no longer a huge event, with purses cut and no longer on national television, but we still have five stakes on today’s card and plenty of good betting opportunities.
The highlight of the card is the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Classic which is the finale on the 12-race card at Gulfstream Park.
Things could end up chalky as the 7-5 morning line favorite Awesome Slew looks as if he is going to be very tough to beat. The colt is a Grade 3 winner, taking the Smarty Jones at Parx back in September and faced tougher in his last two starts—a fifth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and a third last out in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3).
We have a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race on tap this afternoon as well, a competitive field going in the $200,000 Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds.
A field of 12 entered with 11 likely to start with Saint’s Fan a possible scratch. There are 10-4-2-1 points up for grabs toward entry into the Run for the Roses.
Weather will be a factor as the New Orleans area has been hit by plenty of rain and there is more in the forecast for Saturday.
My selections for the Lecomte are below.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 OClm $25,000N1X (12:00 ET)
#8 Glass House 2-1
#2 Lady Coventry 4-1
#6 April Rose 7-2
#4 Love Flute 8-1
Analysis: Glass House makes her first start since her U.S. debut last April at Keeneland where she was off last and came with a good late rally while wide to finish third, beaten two lengths against Alw-1 foes. The filly broke her maiden at the Curragh in her second career start in a field of 30. The Ward barn is 25% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.
Lady Coventry came up the inside with a good late rally to finish third last out in the Claiming Crown Distaff Dash last out. The runner up My Sister Caro returned to beat $12,500 starter optional claimers in her next outing on Jan. 1. Her lone turf win was against $30,000 non-winners of two here last July. A repeat of her last effort puts her in the mix here.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8 / 2,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 12 The Sunshine Millions Classic (5:35 ET)
#8 Awesome Slew 7-5
#6 Piloting 4-1
#3 Hy Riverside 5-1
#4 We're All Set 6-1
Analysis: Awesome Slew tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a third place finish in the Harlan's Holiday (G3) last out here, beaten a neck by Keen Ice for the runner up spot. The colt drops in with state breds here owns a solid pace profile throughout. Castellano picks up the call for Plesa and this guy is going to be tough to beat in this spot as the short priced favorite.
Piloting set the early fractions and could not match strides in the stretch with the winner in a runner up finish last out in the state bred Millions Classic Preview at GP West. The gelding earned a career top speed fig in the effort. He should be forwardly placed but does not look quick enough early to be on the lead against this group.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8 / 3,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Fair Grounds:
FG Race 11 The Lecomte G3 (5:00 CT)
#9 Running Mate 10-1
#8 Guest Suite 5-1
#5 Untrapped 9-2
#3 Totality 12-1
Running Mate was sent off as the 2-5 chalk last out in the Sugar Bowl here going six furlongs after two big wins to start off his career. He tracked the early pace came in and interfered with a foe nearing the 3/16’s and finished with interest for the runner up spot, unbale to get to the winner in the stretch and then getting DQ’d to third. He won his first two career starts by a combined 13 ¾ lengths and has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out. He is by Creative Cause out of a Street Cry mare, her first foal to race. Three bullet works on the morning tab for Larry Jones. From 2-5 last out to 10-1 today, I’ll take it. He has a decent enough off track pedigree.
Guest Suite was a decent third two back in his stakes debut in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs going a one turn mile. The winner of that race was the highly regarded McCraken, who came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in his next outing on Nov. 26. Next out our second choice dropped in to facer Alw-1 optional claimers going a mile at Churchill Downs and trounced the field by 6 ¼ lengths. He popped a bullet work over the main track here on Jan. 18. By Quality Road out of a Ghostzapper mare, her first foal to race, the two turns should not pose a problem.
Untrapped faces winners and two turns for the first time here as one of three sent out by the Asmussen barn. The colt ran second to Uncontested in his debut, that runner winning the Smarty Jones on Monday at Oaklawn Park. Last out he graduated in his second career start, drawing away to win by 5 ¼ lengths. The two turns is the only question mark. Asmussen is 15% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering:
WIN: #9 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 3,5,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 3,5,8,9 / 3,4,5,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #4 Love Flute 8-1
R2: #6 Scat Arb 8-1
R3: #6 Rontos Lily 8-1
R5: #7 Dopo Lavoro 12-1
R7: #4 He’s the One 8-1
R8: #3 Blackjack Baby 8-1
Good luck today!
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Post: 7:35 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$8750 - N/W $5,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN N/W $7,500 IN LAST START INELIGIBLE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 NEW JERSEY SIRED OR OWNED PREFERRED
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 9 NOWUCIT NOWUDONT 5/2
# 2 NEVER EVER CLEVER 9/2
# 6 SURFACE TENSION 20/1
NOWUCIT NOWUDONT looks really good to best this group of animals. Can't overlook based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been great (91 avg) within the recent past. With a competitive 91 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. This trainer, and the driver Bongiorno, go together like hot dogs and buns. Their results together are terrific. NEVER EVER CLEVER - Seems to have a competitive class advantage based on the entrants she has raced against. 47 percent of the time this trainer and horse duo end up hitting the board. Big players in this contest. SURFACE TENSION - When starting from the 6 position, a better than expected win percentage has resulted. Positive feel - going to post well enough to contend in this gathering.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Post: 7:35 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$8750 - N/W $5,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN N/W $7,500 IN LAST START INELIGIBLE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 NEW JERSEY SIRED OR OWNED PREFERRED
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 9 NOWUCIT NOWUDONT 5/2
# 2 NEVER EVER CLEVER 9/2
# 6 SURFACE TENSION 20/1
NOWUCIT NOWUDONT looks really good to best this group of animals. Can't overlook based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been great (91 avg) within the recent past. With a competitive 91 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. This trainer, and the driver Bongiorno, go together like hot dogs and buns. Their results together are terrific. NEVER EVER CLEVER - Seems to have a competitive class advantage based on the entrants she has raced against. 47 percent of the time this trainer and horse duo end up hitting the board. Big players in this contest. SURFACE TENSION - When starting from the 6 position, a better than expected win percentage has resulted. Positive feel - going to post well enough to contend in this gathering.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Post: 7:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$14000 - NON-WINNERS OF $10,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $100,000 IN 2016/17 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. 3,4& 5 YEAR OLD NON-WINNERS OF $100,000 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 4 CHEYENNE SEEBER 7/2
# 3 CHUCARO ACERO BC 5/2
# 5 GHOST PINE 5/1
If you want a formidable play today, feast your eyes on CHEYENNE SEEBER. His 92 avg has this gelding among the most favorable speed ratings in this race. He has good class ratings, averaging 93. Should be considered for a bet in this event. CHUCARO ACERO BC - Doing work well, earned a formidable TrackMaster speed fig in his most recent outing (91). Outstanding win pct combined with recent very good performances. We think he can handle this group. GHOST PINE - When Coyne sends this standardbred out you can bet they'll hit the board, stats show them there 54 percent of the time. Been going to post with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 93)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Post: 7:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$14000 - NON-WINNERS OF $10,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $100,000 IN 2016/17 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. 3,4& 5 YEAR OLD NON-WINNERS OF $100,000 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 4 CHEYENNE SEEBER 7/2
# 3 CHUCARO ACERO BC 5/2
# 5 GHOST PINE 5/1
If you want a formidable play today, feast your eyes on CHEYENNE SEEBER. His 92 avg has this gelding among the most favorable speed ratings in this race. He has good class ratings, averaging 93. Should be considered for a bet in this event. CHUCARO ACERO BC - Doing work well, earned a formidable TrackMaster speed fig in his most recent outing (91). Outstanding win pct combined with recent very good performances. We think he can handle this group. GHOST PINE - When Coyne sends this standardbred out you can bet they'll hit the board, stats show them there 54 percent of the time. Been going to post with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 93)
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LOUISIANA FOALS OF 2012, 2013 & 2014 WHO ARE ELIGIBLE. $350 TO ENTER. ENTRY FEE MUST BE IN THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER'S OFFICE AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. THREE YEAR OLD: 124. OLDER:126.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 1 BANKIN ON BUX 10/1
# 8 HF LLUVIA 9/2
# 5 FOLLOW MY SCENT 7/2
I think about BANKIN ON BUX in this event and is a very good value bet given the line. Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in short races make this racer a contender. Hard to pass on this gelding with Martinez in the irons. Garnered a decent Equibase Speed Fig last time out. HF LLUVIA - Overall the Equibase speed figs of this pony look respectable in this competition. Has to be given a chance based on the strong speed rating posted in the last contest. FOLLOW MY SCENT - Rodriguez has solid numbers that point to this gelding to be a strong contender.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LOUISIANA FOALS OF 2012, 2013 & 2014 WHO ARE ELIGIBLE. $350 TO ENTER. ENTRY FEE MUST BE IN THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER'S OFFICE AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. THREE YEAR OLD: 124. OLDER:126.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 1 BANKIN ON BUX 10/1
# 8 HF LLUVIA 9/2
# 5 FOLLOW MY SCENT 7/2
I think about BANKIN ON BUX in this event and is a very good value bet given the line. Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in short races make this racer a contender. Hard to pass on this gelding with Martinez in the irons. Garnered a decent Equibase Speed Fig last time out. HF LLUVIA - Overall the Equibase speed figs of this pony look respectable in this competition. Has to be given a chance based on the strong speed rating posted in the last contest. FOLLOW MY SCENT - Rodriguez has solid numbers that point to this gelding to be a strong contender.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 91
DIXIE BELLE S. - FILLIES, THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,000 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES AT A FEE OF $2,000 WHICH QUALIFIES TO START. $125,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 60% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 2% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONG ALL OTHER
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 4 FIVE STAR FACTOR 7/2
# 3 VERTICAL OAK 7/5
# 2 MY SWEET STELLA 6/1
I back FIVE STAR FACTOR here. She has been running soundly and the Equibase speed figs are among the strongest in this field. Competitive selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last contest. VERTICAL OAK - Have to believe this equine will make a good showing again this time around. Ran a sharp last race. MY SWEET STELLA - Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. This pony could upset this group at a solid price.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 91
DIXIE BELLE S. - FILLIES, THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,000 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES AT A FEE OF $2,000 WHICH QUALIFIES TO START. $125,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 60% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 2% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONG ALL OTHER
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 4 FIVE STAR FACTOR 7/2
# 3 VERTICAL OAK 7/5
# 2 MY SWEET STELLA 6/1
I back FIVE STAR FACTOR here. She has been running soundly and the Equibase speed figs are among the strongest in this field. Competitive selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last contest. VERTICAL OAK - Have to believe this equine will make a good showing again this time around. Ran a sharp last race. MY SWEET STELLA - Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. This pony could upset this group at a solid price.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 30
Rating:
#2 CHARITABLE ANN (ML=3/1)
CHARITABLE ANN - I like that this first-timer has been working over the Charles Town oval and makes her debut here today. With no recent past performance lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Casey has a +99 percent ROI rate with first-timers.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MARLEE BY MARLEE (ML=5/2), #8 BEELZEBOSS (ML=9/2), #5 GI GI'S SONG (ML=5/1),
MARLEE BY MARLEE - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. Multiple races for this less than sharp equine at Charles Town and still hasn't received her first victory here. BEELZEBOSS - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with M/L odds of 9/2. GI GI'S SONG - 30/27/13, are the decreasing speed figures for this less than sharp equine. Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a short distance clash to be worth the risk at short odds in a sprint.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CHARITABLE ANN - My main man Solo turned me onto betting certain trainers with first time starters. Casey is currently on my list.*
*
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 CHARITABLE ANN to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 30
Rating:
#2 CHARITABLE ANN (ML=3/1)
CHARITABLE ANN - I like that this first-timer has been working over the Charles Town oval and makes her debut here today. With no recent past performance lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Casey has a +99 percent ROI rate with first-timers.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MARLEE BY MARLEE (ML=5/2), #8 BEELZEBOSS (ML=9/2), #5 GI GI'S SONG (ML=5/1),
MARLEE BY MARLEE - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. Multiple races for this less than sharp equine at Charles Town and still hasn't received her first victory here. BEELZEBOSS - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with M/L odds of 9/2. GI GI'S SONG - 30/27/13, are the decreasing speed figures for this less than sharp equine. Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a short distance clash to be worth the risk at short odds in a sprint.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CHARITABLE ANN - My main man Solo turned me onto betting certain trainers with first time starters. Casey is currently on my list.*
*
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 CHARITABLE ANN to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Fair Grounds - Race #4 - Post: 1:51pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $38,000 Class Rating: 85
Rating:
#5 IT IS DEJAVU (ML=8/1)
#9 CRACK ON (ML=6/1)
IT IS DEJAVU - This colt made his debut on December 29th and ran well to finish third at big odds. I'm looking for another big effort from him today. Garnered a nice turf number on December 29th at Fair Grounds. A repeat in this event, and this one has a great shot to win. CRACK ON - This horse picks up a lot of money per start. I believe he can augment that bankroll today. I think that the addition of the 'hood' today will keep his mind on the race at hand.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRITISH HUMOR (ML=7/2), #10 PLEASANT STREET (ML=9/2), #11 DOC KANE (ML=6/1),
BRITISH HUMOR - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this one when scrutinizing the most recent efforts. This colt hasn't had any positive results in sprint races in the last sixty days. The rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this racer as a likely underpriced equine. PLEASANT STREET - In the last race this horse finished tenth. Doesn't look promising for his chances today. Mediocre speed figure last time around the track at Fair Grounds at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much today. DOC KANE - Difficult to play any horse in a sprint race at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last two months. Will be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - IT IS DEJAVU - With the highest last speed rating of 80, this colt looks exceptional against these ponies.*
*
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 IT IS DEJAVU to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Fair Grounds - Race #4 - Post: 1:51pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $38,000 Class Rating: 85
Rating:
#5 IT IS DEJAVU (ML=8/1)
#9 CRACK ON (ML=6/1)
IT IS DEJAVU - This colt made his debut on December 29th and ran well to finish third at big odds. I'm looking for another big effort from him today. Garnered a nice turf number on December 29th at Fair Grounds. A repeat in this event, and this one has a great shot to win. CRACK ON - This horse picks up a lot of money per start. I believe he can augment that bankroll today. I think that the addition of the 'hood' today will keep his mind on the race at hand.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRITISH HUMOR (ML=7/2), #10 PLEASANT STREET (ML=9/2), #11 DOC KANE (ML=6/1),
BRITISH HUMOR - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this one when scrutinizing the most recent efforts. This colt hasn't had any positive results in sprint races in the last sixty days. The rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this racer as a likely underpriced equine. PLEASANT STREET - In the last race this horse finished tenth. Doesn't look promising for his chances today. Mediocre speed figure last time around the track at Fair Grounds at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much today. DOC KANE - Difficult to play any horse in a sprint race at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last two months. Will be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - IT IS DEJAVU - With the highest last speed rating of 80, this colt looks exceptional against these ponies.*
*
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 IT IS DEJAVU to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00
CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE
#2 FLICK OF AN EYE
#3 JUST GOT OUT
#5 ABOUNDING SPIRIT
#7 MORETHANAWARNING
#2 FLICK OF AN EYE. the overall speed leader in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five starts, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche has been in her irons on 7 previous occasions, hitting the board in 6 of those rides, winning 4 times, en route to a +109% return on investment in the process, and is back tonight for her 8th ride, gunning for another "Circle Trip." #3 JUST GOT OUT has hit the board in four straight, with three of those "board hit efforts" also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."
RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00
CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE
#2 FLICK OF AN EYE
#3 JUST GOT OUT
#5 ABOUNDING SPIRIT
#7 MORETHANAWARNING
#2 FLICK OF AN EYE. the overall speed leader in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five starts, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche has been in her irons on 7 previous occasions, hitting the board in 6 of those rides, winning 4 times, en route to a +109% return on investment in the process, and is back tonight for her 8th ride, gunning for another "Circle Trip." #3 JUST GOT OUT has hit the board in four straight, with three of those "board hit efforts" also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."
Woodbine Harness: Saturday 1/21 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4/3,6,7/4,5/2,3,7,8,9/2,6,7,9 = $24
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,7,8,9/2,6,7/1,5/1,6 - $60
LATE PICK 4: 1,4,5,6/2,4,5,8/5,6/2 = $32
MEET STATS: 75 - 312 / $428.30 BEST BETS: 12 - 29 / $44.70
SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 28 / $44.20
Best Bet: SPIDER MAN HANOVER (11th)
Spot Play: MACH CODE (5th)
Race 1
(4) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS made several moves last week and he still won easily and that came following a one-month break; call to repeat. (6) LONEWOLF CURRIER improved immediately for Moreau, but he was still no match for the choice. This exacta has a good chance of repeating here, but it won't pay a lot. (7) PAR INTENDED gained some ground on the top two late last time, but he likely won't be in position to win turning home here. (8) MCKINNEY comes up tagged here and he could be blasting early.
Race 2
(6) AMERICAN VIRGIN almost lasted in this class last week and the rival that nailed him late isn't here this week; top call. (3) NICKLE BAG closed okay but he was out of position last week. He is always a threat in this class. (7) PRESCOTTS HOPE got pushed out wide last week in the second 1/4 which cost him some placings. That line is better than it looks; consider. (1) ALEXAS JACKPOT should get a good trip up near the front and is another that isn't out of this.
Race 3
(5) SWAN FOR DEE moves to the middle of the gate and retains the leading driver. Expect an early move this time. (4) READY ANY TIME is in top form and will be the one to fend off in the lane. (2) GIANT MUSCLES should be able to take a smaller share despite moving out of claimers. (6) P L JILL showed some ability at three. She could make the ticket at first asking here as her qualifier was decent.
Race 4
(8) ER ZACH ATTACK showed good speed both early and late last week. He should be prominent throughout here. (7) UF BETTORS HANOVER drops and figures, but he could be overbet. (9) RAFA had a good comeback race. He could be blasting off the gate this time. (3) GOOD FRIDAY THREE is back in decent form after a very long dry spell; consider.
Race 5
(2) MACH CODE drops and gets the potent first-time McNair angle in his favor here; top call. (6) PAPARAZZI HANOVER drops back into a class where he dominated two back. He's a must-use. (7) HALF A BILLION has raced well for the past four starts, but he is somewhat trip-dependent. He can win with some racing luck. (9) THE WAYFARING MAN drops off a decent comeback effort. Keep him in mind when making vertical wagers.
Race 6
(1) STONEBRIDGE PEACE won vs. similar last week and she has clearly figured things out the past two starts; call to repeat. (5) DEVILS ADVOCATE has really turned it around under Vanderkemp's care. She should be right there vs. these if not too rusty after missing five weeks. (2) CROWN CLASSIC faces easier and she should be heard from here. (7) KEEGAN HO is also capable of waking up in this easier company.
Race 7
(1) ARTISTIC MADISON continues her ascent and can win in this top class too when she is at the top of her game, which she clearly is now. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES was a victim of pace last week. She will likely be on the move earlier here. (4) P L HURRICANE was trapped in until it was too late last week. She should take another share here. (5) MS MAC N CHEESE parlayed an easy trip on the lead into a win last week. I don't see her getting the same trip here.
Race 8
(1) BRINGHOME THEBLUE has excelled for Auciello since returning to this circuit and he should get a good trip here; slight nod. (5) THE REV was just short last week as his form continues to improve; using. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER is sure to try to bottom out this group and he should be included on Pick 4 tickets. (6) SHADOW PLACE is on a good roll and isn't out of this, but he will have more competition for the lead here.
Race 9
(2) SIR GALAHAD made a power move to win last week and he retains aggressive driver Roy facing similar; call to repeat. (4) REEL rates highly, but he will likely be looking for room late which could go either way. (5) P L JACKSON comes off a sharp win vs. similar. He's a threat here starting from a good post. (8) MACH POWER set big fractions on his way to a win vs. easier last week. McNair sticks; using.
Race 10
(6) J JS DELIVERY destroyed easier last week. If he can replicate that mile, he will be tough to overhaul here. (5) ERLE DALE N is the class of this field and he looks ready to roll based on his latest qualifier. (8) SPORTSMANSHIP had a brutally long trip last week. He can fare much better here if he can find a seat early. (3) PERFECT VISTA can pass a few of these late and take a share.
Race 11
(2) SPIDER MAN HANOVER lays over this group and he looks ready to fire a bullet based on his January 13th qualifier. (1) FLAHERTY woke up with a sharp effort last week. He can take a big chunk of this purse with an alert start. (4) SENIOR MARKET exits a quick mile. He can take a slice at a price here off a following trip near the front. (5) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL was wildly overbet last week and didn't make the board. He will be a better price here, but he projects to take a smaller share. (8) QUICK FUN N can close in late for a small share.
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4/3,6,7/4,5/2,3,7,8,9/2,6,7,9 = $24
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,7,8,9/2,6,7/1,5/1,6 - $60
LATE PICK 4: 1,4,5,6/2,4,5,8/5,6/2 = $32
MEET STATS: 75 - 312 / $428.30 BEST BETS: 12 - 29 / $44.70
SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 28 / $44.20
Best Bet: SPIDER MAN HANOVER (11th)
Spot Play: MACH CODE (5th)
Race 1
(4) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS made several moves last week and he still won easily and that came following a one-month break; call to repeat. (6) LONEWOLF CURRIER improved immediately for Moreau, but he was still no match for the choice. This exacta has a good chance of repeating here, but it won't pay a lot. (7) PAR INTENDED gained some ground on the top two late last time, but he likely won't be in position to win turning home here. (8) MCKINNEY comes up tagged here and he could be blasting early.
Race 2
(6) AMERICAN VIRGIN almost lasted in this class last week and the rival that nailed him late isn't here this week; top call. (3) NICKLE BAG closed okay but he was out of position last week. He is always a threat in this class. (7) PRESCOTTS HOPE got pushed out wide last week in the second 1/4 which cost him some placings. That line is better than it looks; consider. (1) ALEXAS JACKPOT should get a good trip up near the front and is another that isn't out of this.
Race 3
(5) SWAN FOR DEE moves to the middle of the gate and retains the leading driver. Expect an early move this time. (4) READY ANY TIME is in top form and will be the one to fend off in the lane. (2) GIANT MUSCLES should be able to take a smaller share despite moving out of claimers. (6) P L JILL showed some ability at three. She could make the ticket at first asking here as her qualifier was decent.
Race 4
(8) ER ZACH ATTACK showed good speed both early and late last week. He should be prominent throughout here. (7) UF BETTORS HANOVER drops and figures, but he could be overbet. (9) RAFA had a good comeback race. He could be blasting off the gate this time. (3) GOOD FRIDAY THREE is back in decent form after a very long dry spell; consider.
Race 5
(2) MACH CODE drops and gets the potent first-time McNair angle in his favor here; top call. (6) PAPARAZZI HANOVER drops back into a class where he dominated two back. He's a must-use. (7) HALF A BILLION has raced well for the past four starts, but he is somewhat trip-dependent. He can win with some racing luck. (9) THE WAYFARING MAN drops off a decent comeback effort. Keep him in mind when making vertical wagers.
Race 6
(1) STONEBRIDGE PEACE won vs. similar last week and she has clearly figured things out the past two starts; call to repeat. (5) DEVILS ADVOCATE has really turned it around under Vanderkemp's care. She should be right there vs. these if not too rusty after missing five weeks. (2) CROWN CLASSIC faces easier and she should be heard from here. (7) KEEGAN HO is also capable of waking up in this easier company.
Race 7
(1) ARTISTIC MADISON continues her ascent and can win in this top class too when she is at the top of her game, which she clearly is now. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES was a victim of pace last week. She will likely be on the move earlier here. (4) P L HURRICANE was trapped in until it was too late last week. She should take another share here. (5) MS MAC N CHEESE parlayed an easy trip on the lead into a win last week. I don't see her getting the same trip here.
Race 8
(1) BRINGHOME THEBLUE has excelled for Auciello since returning to this circuit and he should get a good trip here; slight nod. (5) THE REV was just short last week as his form continues to improve; using. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER is sure to try to bottom out this group and he should be included on Pick 4 tickets. (6) SHADOW PLACE is on a good roll and isn't out of this, but he will have more competition for the lead here.
Race 9
(2) SIR GALAHAD made a power move to win last week and he retains aggressive driver Roy facing similar; call to repeat. (4) REEL rates highly, but he will likely be looking for room late which could go either way. (5) P L JACKSON comes off a sharp win vs. similar. He's a threat here starting from a good post. (8) MACH POWER set big fractions on his way to a win vs. easier last week. McNair sticks; using.
Race 10
(6) J JS DELIVERY destroyed easier last week. If he can replicate that mile, he will be tough to overhaul here. (5) ERLE DALE N is the class of this field and he looks ready to roll based on his latest qualifier. (8) SPORTSMANSHIP had a brutally long trip last week. He can fare much better here if he can find a seat early. (3) PERFECT VISTA can pass a few of these late and take a share.
Race 11
(2) SPIDER MAN HANOVER lays over this group and he looks ready to fire a bullet based on his January 13th qualifier. (1) FLAHERTY woke up with a sharp effort last week. He can take a big chunk of this purse with an alert start. (4) SENIOR MARKET exits a quick mile. He can take a slice at a price here off a following trip near the front. (5) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL was wildly overbet last week and didn't make the board. He will be a better price here, but he projects to take a smaller share. (8) QUICK FUN N can close in late for a small share.
Meadowlands: Saturday 1/21 Analysis
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 84 - 283 / $442.40 (-$133.60)
BEST BETS: 10 - 23 / $38.80 (-$7.20)
Best Bet: CALVIN B (10th)
Spot Play: THE FIRE WITHIN (13th)
Race 1
(5) MAGIC TRICKS could have been short after missing three weeks prior to his 12/30 start and gets a pass for his fifth-place finish from post 10 last time. In a field with many options, I’ll give him one more chance at a price. (1) TO BEACH HIS OWN was a winner when last in for a $10,000 claiming tag. (2) FRATERNITY has raced well in his last two starts and should be close to the action tonight. (8) ALEX BULLVILLE raced well last time to pull off the upset and faces many of the same foes in this spot.
Race 2
(1) WINEMASTER HANOVER has been playing the part of a hot potato as he moves from barn to barn each week. Seven-year-old comes off a nice win and should be in prime position again by showing speed from his inside post. (9) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT just missed versus the top choice last time and is stuck with an outside post once again. (2) NEVER EVER CLEVER was a bit disappointing in her last start. She can rebound in a hurry. (10) ANDY RAY drops down in his second start since September; could improve.
Race 3
It’s hard for me to get excited about any of these horses. I’ll roll the dice with (5) ANGEL CINDY, who gets a barn change as she ships in from Northfield Park. She seems to have some GO to her when she minds her manners and the switch to the big track could help. (7) MILLVILLE ROAD has put together a string of solid efforts but still sports a gloomy 2 for 31 career record. (2) THREEUPTHREEDOWN gets a key trainer change to Richard Johnson and seems likely to go to post as the favorite. That said, I’d didn’t love his qualifier and he was under a drive in victory despite the three length win margin.
Race 4
(10) MY SPIRIT SOARS has his work cut out for him from post 10 and hasn’t won a race since 2015, but this is the weakest field he has seen. He has to be a factor in this spot. (4) REGULUS N has been finishing far back week after week and now visits the basement condition. I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but will finally jump ship if he doesn’t race well Saturday. (8) THAT’S MY OPINION drops down and moves into a live barn, BUT this guy is very inconsistent and unreliable. (6) TRIGGER FINGER adds Gingras and should be considered at least underneath.
Race 5
(3) DASH OF DANGER hasn’t been the same horse in his last two starts that he was three and four starts back. In a field without a standout, I’m hoping the switch to Yannick Gingras can shake this guy up. (2) SHOREVIEW comes off a nice effort and should be forwardly placed for success. (4) PICKWICK has been third or better in three of his last four starts. (5) B FAST EDDIE has been within a few lengths of some of the others ranked a bit higher in this analysis. (9) BORN OF FIRE can’t seem to get away from post 10. If given a good trip, I do believe he can spice up the bottom exotics.
Race 6
I’m finding this race very difficult to decipher. Will Gingras be ultra aggressive with Ontario Success? Will National Seelster revert to his Meadowlands form now that he is back on the big track? Can Durant keep his form versus a more accomplished group here? Ultimately I’m going with the classy (6) HILLBILLY HANOVER to move his winning streak to three because there seems to be a fair amount of speed to set him up from second or third over; Brett Miller’s choice. (1) ONTARIO SUCCESS just missed last time and should only improve with Gingras. (7) NATIONAL SEELSTER, as I wrote above, is very capable. (4) BARIMAH A raced well with Lasix added last time and is fast enough if given the right trip. (5) DURANT can certainly keep rolling.
Race 7
(8) RED SCOOTER wasn’t going very far from the back of the pack at Dover last time but did take a picture here two-back for this $15K claiming tag. Callahan opting to #7 should guarantee we get a fair price. This is a competitive race, so demand value wherever you land. (5) DR C’S Z TAM seems to be rounding into form right now and only needs a smooth journey to menace. (4) JACKSON BRADY has the early speed to control the race and enough form to win if not hounded on the lead. (6) WHATAORSE has proven he is capable of winning for this claiming price but I would prefer him versus a softer field.
Race 8
(2) BLATANTLY BEST is moving up in class on paper but really doesn’t face a tougher group. In a field without a standout, I’d love to see Miller attempt an early brush rather than grinding it out. (7) SPICEBOMB has the ability to put in a nice mile if on his game. (6) DREAMLANDS ART has plenty of back class and did race well two starts back. (8) WAR N MUNN hasn’t been able to put it all together. I do believe he could step up, though.
Race 9
I’m going to take a shot here seeking a big price. (5) JK ALLNITELONG didn’t do anything wrong last week, his first pari-mutuel try since the end of October, finishing evenly while lacking a big kick. In a field without any razor-sharp horses, why can’t this guy improve enough to give us a run for our money at 20-1 or higher? (4) DANCINWITHDELIGHT comes off a solid effort and is obviously the one to beat as the chalk. (1) VICEROY HANOVER gets a better post to work with this week and Brett Miller in the bike. (7) SUCCESSFULLY SAID moves into a new barn.
Race 10
Despite the fact that (6) CALVIN B could be an underlay in this spot off a no-chance closing effort, I’m going to make him my top pick. If he shows up with his best game, he wins. (8) SASSY HANOVER has legitimate early speed and raced well for second while up in class last time; very dangerous. (9) JACKSRLUCKYTOO drew off to a decisive win last Saturday and may have picked up some confidence. (5) STRATOCASTER couldn’t make a dent as Durant won his second straight last time. Tonight he drops back down to the level of his last win. (2) REASONABLE FORCE adds Gingras for a high percentage barn.
Race 11
(5) SOMESIZESOMESTYLE has been racing well of late and finds a field with ample early speed to set him up. At the very least, he should have a clear path on the rim in this short field. (3) PARNU HANOVER is in career form right now and a major factor. (6) VEGAS VACATION missed all of 2014 and most of 2015 and 2016, but has finally made a string of consecutive starts and now is as good a time as any to take a shot and see what is in the tank.
Race 12
(9) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL was nowhere near the gate last Saturday in his first start with Lasix added. Gelding drops down a notch tonight and I’m willing to give him another shot. (6) FITZ’S Z TAM also moves down the class ladder and adds Gingras. (10) REAL NICE would likely be the favorite from an inside post; chance from outside. (8) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE has a good history here and the speed to menace from the outside.
Race 13
Coming off a five week break, (1) THE FIRE WITHIN was saved and finished up with late pace last time. I think he is sitting on a big mile and the switch to Gingras can only help. (8) PRINCE PALANI is also making his second start off the bench. Veteran knows his way to the winner’s circle. (10) SIR SAM’S Z TAM concludes the ‘off the layoff’ horses in the top three. He was flat his first start back and stuck in post 8 at Yonkers last time. I expect a solid effort for a good check. (2) LUCKY MAN finished second in this class last time. (3) TINK AND TIGER drops out of claimers but gets unlucky against a decent bottom-level field.
By Derick Giwner
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 84 - 283 / $442.40 (-$133.60)
BEST BETS: 10 - 23 / $38.80 (-$7.20)
Best Bet: CALVIN B (10th)
Spot Play: THE FIRE WITHIN (13th)
Race 1
(5) MAGIC TRICKS could have been short after missing three weeks prior to his 12/30 start and gets a pass for his fifth-place finish from post 10 last time. In a field with many options, I’ll give him one more chance at a price. (1) TO BEACH HIS OWN was a winner when last in for a $10,000 claiming tag. (2) FRATERNITY has raced well in his last two starts and should be close to the action tonight. (8) ALEX BULLVILLE raced well last time to pull off the upset and faces many of the same foes in this spot.
Race 2
(1) WINEMASTER HANOVER has been playing the part of a hot potato as he moves from barn to barn each week. Seven-year-old comes off a nice win and should be in prime position again by showing speed from his inside post. (9) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT just missed versus the top choice last time and is stuck with an outside post once again. (2) NEVER EVER CLEVER was a bit disappointing in her last start. She can rebound in a hurry. (10) ANDY RAY drops down in his second start since September; could improve.
Race 3
It’s hard for me to get excited about any of these horses. I’ll roll the dice with (5) ANGEL CINDY, who gets a barn change as she ships in from Northfield Park. She seems to have some GO to her when she minds her manners and the switch to the big track could help. (7) MILLVILLE ROAD has put together a string of solid efforts but still sports a gloomy 2 for 31 career record. (2) THREEUPTHREEDOWN gets a key trainer change to Richard Johnson and seems likely to go to post as the favorite. That said, I’d didn’t love his qualifier and he was under a drive in victory despite the three length win margin.
Race 4
(10) MY SPIRIT SOARS has his work cut out for him from post 10 and hasn’t won a race since 2015, but this is the weakest field he has seen. He has to be a factor in this spot. (4) REGULUS N has been finishing far back week after week and now visits the basement condition. I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but will finally jump ship if he doesn’t race well Saturday. (8) THAT’S MY OPINION drops down and moves into a live barn, BUT this guy is very inconsistent and unreliable. (6) TRIGGER FINGER adds Gingras and should be considered at least underneath.
Race 5
(3) DASH OF DANGER hasn’t been the same horse in his last two starts that he was three and four starts back. In a field without a standout, I’m hoping the switch to Yannick Gingras can shake this guy up. (2) SHOREVIEW comes off a nice effort and should be forwardly placed for success. (4) PICKWICK has been third or better in three of his last four starts. (5) B FAST EDDIE has been within a few lengths of some of the others ranked a bit higher in this analysis. (9) BORN OF FIRE can’t seem to get away from post 10. If given a good trip, I do believe he can spice up the bottom exotics.
Race 6
I’m finding this race very difficult to decipher. Will Gingras be ultra aggressive with Ontario Success? Will National Seelster revert to his Meadowlands form now that he is back on the big track? Can Durant keep his form versus a more accomplished group here? Ultimately I’m going with the classy (6) HILLBILLY HANOVER to move his winning streak to three because there seems to be a fair amount of speed to set him up from second or third over; Brett Miller’s choice. (1) ONTARIO SUCCESS just missed last time and should only improve with Gingras. (7) NATIONAL SEELSTER, as I wrote above, is very capable. (4) BARIMAH A raced well with Lasix added last time and is fast enough if given the right trip. (5) DURANT can certainly keep rolling.
Race 7
(8) RED SCOOTER wasn’t going very far from the back of the pack at Dover last time but did take a picture here two-back for this $15K claiming tag. Callahan opting to #7 should guarantee we get a fair price. This is a competitive race, so demand value wherever you land. (5) DR C’S Z TAM seems to be rounding into form right now and only needs a smooth journey to menace. (4) JACKSON BRADY has the early speed to control the race and enough form to win if not hounded on the lead. (6) WHATAORSE has proven he is capable of winning for this claiming price but I would prefer him versus a softer field.
Race 8
(2) BLATANTLY BEST is moving up in class on paper but really doesn’t face a tougher group. In a field without a standout, I’d love to see Miller attempt an early brush rather than grinding it out. (7) SPICEBOMB has the ability to put in a nice mile if on his game. (6) DREAMLANDS ART has plenty of back class and did race well two starts back. (8) WAR N MUNN hasn’t been able to put it all together. I do believe he could step up, though.
Race 9
I’m going to take a shot here seeking a big price. (5) JK ALLNITELONG didn’t do anything wrong last week, his first pari-mutuel try since the end of October, finishing evenly while lacking a big kick. In a field without any razor-sharp horses, why can’t this guy improve enough to give us a run for our money at 20-1 or higher? (4) DANCINWITHDELIGHT comes off a solid effort and is obviously the one to beat as the chalk. (1) VICEROY HANOVER gets a better post to work with this week and Brett Miller in the bike. (7) SUCCESSFULLY SAID moves into a new barn.
Race 10
Despite the fact that (6) CALVIN B could be an underlay in this spot off a no-chance closing effort, I’m going to make him my top pick. If he shows up with his best game, he wins. (8) SASSY HANOVER has legitimate early speed and raced well for second while up in class last time; very dangerous. (9) JACKSRLUCKYTOO drew off to a decisive win last Saturday and may have picked up some confidence. (5) STRATOCASTER couldn’t make a dent as Durant won his second straight last time. Tonight he drops back down to the level of his last win. (2) REASONABLE FORCE adds Gingras for a high percentage barn.
Race 11
(5) SOMESIZESOMESTYLE has been racing well of late and finds a field with ample early speed to set him up. At the very least, he should have a clear path on the rim in this short field. (3) PARNU HANOVER is in career form right now and a major factor. (6) VEGAS VACATION missed all of 2014 and most of 2015 and 2016, but has finally made a string of consecutive starts and now is as good a time as any to take a shot and see what is in the tank.
Race 12
(9) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL was nowhere near the gate last Saturday in his first start with Lasix added. Gelding drops down a notch tonight and I’m willing to give him another shot. (6) FITZ’S Z TAM also moves down the class ladder and adds Gingras. (10) REAL NICE would likely be the favorite from an inside post; chance from outside. (8) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE has a good history here and the speed to menace from the outside.
Race 13
Coming off a five week break, (1) THE FIRE WITHIN was saved and finished up with late pace last time. I think he is sitting on a big mile and the switch to Gingras can only help. (8) PRINCE PALANI is also making his second start off the bench. Veteran knows his way to the winner’s circle. (10) SIR SAM’S Z TAM concludes the ‘off the layoff’ horses in the top three. He was flat his first start back and stuck in post 8 at Yonkers last time. I expect a solid effort for a good check. (2) LUCKY MAN finished second in this class last time. (3) TINK AND TIGER drops out of claimers but gets unlucky against a decent bottom-level field.
Yonkers: Saturday 1/21 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 13 - 52 / $72.90
BEST BETS: 2 - 5 / $9.80
Best Bet: SOMEWHERE IN L A (6th)
Spot Play: KILLER MARTINI (10th)
Race 1
(3) SNAP TO IT A never really fired last week yet still almost managed to run second; Bamond trainee likely needed that start off a month and he can be tighter tonight. (2) PANSFORMATIVE gets needed post relief and will be much more involved. (5) AMERICAN RAGE is another with back class who should benefit from racing back on consecutive weeks.
Race 2
(4) CHEYENNE SEEBER drops a notch off a rail-sitting trip; he was a winner when last at this level. (3) CHUCARO ACERO BC raced well last week and is starting to prove he belongs with this type. (2) P H KENNY gets needed post relief and will be much closer to the action tonight.
Race 3
(4) PASS THEM BY N finished with pace from a tough spot last week; he gets the nice combo of class and post relief tonight and the versatile veteran can fire from the gate. (2) BETTOREVER also drops and moves in off a needed start; big threat. (3) URBAN RENEWAL has hit the ticket in his four local starts but has yet to win.
Race 4
(2) TYBER TYKE looked very sharp wiring lesser and I'll stick with him. (5) DULL ROAR closed willingly to rally for second last week and he looks like a player here. (7) MATTAMERICAN is stuck with a tough outside post but he is sharp enough to land a piece.
Race 5
(5) BLOOD BROTHER raced very well in his 2017 debut and he lures Bartlett off of (2) P H SUPERCAM....interesting. Overbet? The latter raced well but was a victim of circumstance last week; Zeron gets the call tonight and would certainly be no surprise. (6) ROLAND N ROCK is in career form but needs a bit of help from this outside post assignment.
Race 6
(6) SOMEWHERE N L A went wire-to-wire in his last three and there's nothing in here to prevent him from taking another. (2) DYNAMIC YOUTH has been sharp for an extended period of time for Carl Cito, Jr. (5) GIVENUPDREAMING was second to the top choice last week and should be leaving the gate again.
Race 7
(5) UF LARRY ALLTHEWAY raced okay last week while having no real chance; he should be a healthy price in a field full of question marks. (2) ROLLIN RING AFIRE moves to the Banca barn off a good qualifier. (4) HERE WE GO AGAIN is probably the one to beat but he's tough to use on top.
Race 8
(4) DOCTOR BUTCH picks up a new set of hands in Scott Zeron after his regular driver Holland surprisingly opted off; Toscano trainee is probably best here. (7) SAPPHIRE CITY was a winner last week for his new barn and he can handle the bump in class. (1) IRA CHIEF gets class relief and a driver upgrade off a needed start.
Race 9
(4) LUCAN HANOVER had no excuse last week but Bartlett drives again and he deserves another chance. (3) CLASS SIX needed last week's race and he's capable of showing more. (2) BULLET BOB always has good speed but is usually lacking late; use underneath.
Race 10
(1) KILLER MARTINI hasn't put in a bad effort in ages and he gets another good draw; Bucci trainee isn't a prolific winner but if he keeps his good form the wins will come. (3) LORD OF MISRULE was very game in defeat last week. (5) BIG SURF gets Bartlett back in the bike and could be leaving the gate.
Race 11
(5) CASIMIR JITTERBUG is much better than he's shown in his last two starts; time for a wakeup call. (2) BORDER CONTROL A is another ex-Milici horse resurfacing in the Banca barn; he's a threat if ready. (1) KEYSTONE HONOR was second best last week and can round out the ticket from this spot.
By Matt Rose
DRF
MEET STATS: 13 - 52 / $72.90
BEST BETS: 2 - 5 / $9.80
Best Bet: SOMEWHERE IN L A (6th)
Spot Play: KILLER MARTINI (10th)
Race 1
(3) SNAP TO IT A never really fired last week yet still almost managed to run second; Bamond trainee likely needed that start off a month and he can be tighter tonight. (2) PANSFORMATIVE gets needed post relief and will be much more involved. (5) AMERICAN RAGE is another with back class who should benefit from racing back on consecutive weeks.
Race 2
(4) CHEYENNE SEEBER drops a notch off a rail-sitting trip; he was a winner when last at this level. (3) CHUCARO ACERO BC raced well last week and is starting to prove he belongs with this type. (2) P H KENNY gets needed post relief and will be much closer to the action tonight.
Race 3
(4) PASS THEM BY N finished with pace from a tough spot last week; he gets the nice combo of class and post relief tonight and the versatile veteran can fire from the gate. (2) BETTOREVER also drops and moves in off a needed start; big threat. (3) URBAN RENEWAL has hit the ticket in his four local starts but has yet to win.
Race 4
(2) TYBER TYKE looked very sharp wiring lesser and I'll stick with him. (5) DULL ROAR closed willingly to rally for second last week and he looks like a player here. (7) MATTAMERICAN is stuck with a tough outside post but he is sharp enough to land a piece.
Race 5
(5) BLOOD BROTHER raced very well in his 2017 debut and he lures Bartlett off of (2) P H SUPERCAM....interesting. Overbet? The latter raced well but was a victim of circumstance last week; Zeron gets the call tonight and would certainly be no surprise. (6) ROLAND N ROCK is in career form but needs a bit of help from this outside post assignment.
Race 6
(6) SOMEWHERE N L A went wire-to-wire in his last three and there's nothing in here to prevent him from taking another. (2) DYNAMIC YOUTH has been sharp for an extended period of time for Carl Cito, Jr. (5) GIVENUPDREAMING was second to the top choice last week and should be leaving the gate again.
Race 7
(5) UF LARRY ALLTHEWAY raced okay last week while having no real chance; he should be a healthy price in a field full of question marks. (2) ROLLIN RING AFIRE moves to the Banca barn off a good qualifier. (4) HERE WE GO AGAIN is probably the one to beat but he's tough to use on top.
Race 8
(4) DOCTOR BUTCH picks up a new set of hands in Scott Zeron after his regular driver Holland surprisingly opted off; Toscano trainee is probably best here. (7) SAPPHIRE CITY was a winner last week for his new barn and he can handle the bump in class. (1) IRA CHIEF gets class relief and a driver upgrade off a needed start.
Race 9
(4) LUCAN HANOVER had no excuse last week but Bartlett drives again and he deserves another chance. (3) CLASS SIX needed last week's race and he's capable of showing more. (2) BULLET BOB always has good speed but is usually lacking late; use underneath.
Race 10
(1) KILLER MARTINI hasn't put in a bad effort in ages and he gets another good draw; Bucci trainee isn't a prolific winner but if he keeps his good form the wins will come. (3) LORD OF MISRULE was very game in defeat last week. (5) BIG SURF gets Bartlett back in the bike and could be leaving the gate.
Race 11
(5) CASIMIR JITTERBUG is much better than he's shown in his last two starts; time for a wakeup call. (2) BORDER CONTROL A is another ex-Milici horse resurfacing in the Banca barn; he's a threat if ready. (1) KEYSTONE HONOR was second best last week and can round out the ticket from this spot.
Spot Plays
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (4th) Horoscope, 4-1
(6th) Mahalo John, 3-1
Charles Town (5th) Boppin Anda Weavin, 5-1
(7th) Tango Delta, 7-2
Delta Downs (5th) Blues Museum, 5-1
(9th) Courtney’s Beau, 6-1
Fair Grounds (1st) Song of Dixie, 3-1
(6th) Fault, 7-2
Golden Gate Fields (3rd) She’s a Ten, 6-1
(9th) Chapter Ten, 9-2
Gulfstream Park (2nd) Beach Tag, 3-1
(7th) Happy Wanderer, 3-1
Laurel Park (2nd) Troy Story, 5-1
(9th) Zipping By, 8-1
Mahoning Valley (5th) Bobbys Approval, 4-1
(7th) Wichita Willy, 9-2
Oaklawn Park (2nd) Knight of Dreams, 9-2
(6th) Pitch Count, 6-1
Parx (2nd) Appealing Miss, 5-1
(4th) Luce Mia, 7-2
Penn National (3rd) Kamakaze, 4-1
(6th) Hot Squad, 7-2
Sam Houston (3rd) Mad Ruler, 9-2
(4th) She’s All Ranger, 9-2
Santa Anita (6th) Lucky Folie, 3-1
(9th) Solar Zone, 7-2
Sunland Park (6th) Dom Strait, 3-1
(8th) Forger, 3-1
Tampa Bay Downs (4th) I Cat, 3-1
(7th) Alto Belle, 3-1
Turf Paradise (6th) Saturdaynitelites, 9-2
(7th) Pacific Nights, 3-1
Turfway Park (5th) Spring Fling, 7-2
(6th) Dac, 7-2
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (4th) Horoscope, 4-1
(6th) Mahalo John, 3-1
Charles Town (5th) Boppin Anda Weavin, 5-1
(7th) Tango Delta, 7-2
Delta Downs (5th) Blues Museum, 5-1
(9th) Courtney’s Beau, 6-1
Fair Grounds (1st) Song of Dixie, 3-1
(6th) Fault, 7-2
Golden Gate Fields (3rd) She’s a Ten, 6-1
(9th) Chapter Ten, 9-2
Gulfstream Park (2nd) Beach Tag, 3-1
(7th) Happy Wanderer, 3-1
Laurel Park (2nd) Troy Story, 5-1
(9th) Zipping By, 8-1
Mahoning Valley (5th) Bobbys Approval, 4-1
(7th) Wichita Willy, 9-2
Oaklawn Park (2nd) Knight of Dreams, 9-2
(6th) Pitch Count, 6-1
Parx (2nd) Appealing Miss, 5-1
(4th) Luce Mia, 7-2
Penn National (3rd) Kamakaze, 4-1
(6th) Hot Squad, 7-2
Sam Houston (3rd) Mad Ruler, 9-2
(4th) She’s All Ranger, 9-2
Santa Anita (6th) Lucky Folie, 3-1
(9th) Solar Zone, 7-2
Sunland Park (6th) Dom Strait, 3-1
(8th) Forger, 3-1
Tampa Bay Downs (4th) I Cat, 3-1
(7th) Alto Belle, 3-1
Turf Paradise (6th) Saturdaynitelites, 9-2
(7th) Pacific Nights, 3-1
Turfway Park (5th) Spring Fling, 7-2
(6th) Dac, 7-2
