At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey
The $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) field continues to take shape, with the latest addition being Breaking Lucky, who was the runner up in the Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs in his last outing.
The first running of the Pegasus is coming up on Saturday, Jan. 28 and will become the world’s richest race, with a $7 million payday to the winning connections.
California Chrome remains on target for the race, which will be his last career start. The 2014 Kentucky Derby (G1) champion and likely 2016 Eclipse Award winner for Horse of the Year is the -110 betting favorite in currently odds.
The second choice in the betting is Arrogate, who is the only horse to beat California Chrome last year, taking the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
The Bob Baffert trainee is listed at +130, but I think his price may drift south in the next couple of weeks.
Breaking Lucky is not yet listed but figures to be a longshot, likely in the neighborhood of +5000.
Betting Odds for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup:
Arrogate +130
California Chrome -110
Eragon +2000
Gun Runner +3000
Keen Ice +3500
Neolithic +3500
Semper Fortis +7500
Shaman Ghost +3500
Stanford +3500
War Story +6000
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Clm $30,000N2L (12:35 ET)
#7 Regal Kitten 3-1
#6 Market Strength 8-1
#2 Mr. Sam 4-1
#3 Extreme Justice 9-2
Analysis: Regal Kitten drops in for a tag after checking in fifth last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes at Churchill Downs. This colt was a game third two and three back at that level and now looks well spotted dropping in for a $30,000 tag here for the Sharp barn. The colt picked up his maiden win over the turf here last January with a last to first run.
Market Strength prompted the early pace while a bit rank and hard to rate early and ran out of gas late in a fourth place finish last out at this level. Three back at Belmont Park this guy was a good second against $40,000 non-winners of two. He sat off the pace in his maiden score which came at the Spa and if Edgar can get him to relax early he should get a good trip form mid pack. Worth a look here if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,3,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,3,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 9 OClm $25,000N1X (4:32 ET)
#3 Forced Motion 9-2
#4 Canadian Flyer 5-2
#5 Beantown Saint 6-1
#6 Tizcano 7-2
Analysis: Forced Motion was a sharp winner against $30,000 non-winners of two or three-year-olds in his first start off a five month layoff. The fourth place finisher Awesome My Way exited the race to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in his next start on Dec. 7 here. The gelding looks capable of handing the slightly tougher group here. He is out of a Dayjur mare that has dropped six other turf winners and three stakes winners, top earner Lord Sinclair ($420,961).
Canadian Flyer makes his first start since July for the Mott barn that is 16% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. This guy was sixth last out at the Spa against Alw-1 foes in a key race in which the winner, third, fourth and fifth place finishers all won next out. He has a couple of bullet works in the mornings at Payson for his return.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #6 Market Strength 8-1
R2: #2 Slipper Orchid 12-1
R3: #9 Kentira 8-1
R4: #7 Grubered 8-1
R5: #6 Cape Force 8-1
R6: #1 Brown Almighty 8-1
R7: #4 Sound Check 12-1
R8: #10 Whistle 10-1
R10: #4 Fan Base 15-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
The $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) field continues to take shape, with the latest addition being Breaking Lucky, who was the runner up in the Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs in his last outing.
The first running of the Pegasus is coming up on Saturday, Jan. 28 and will become the world’s richest race, with a $7 million payday to the winning connections.
California Chrome remains on target for the race, which will be his last career start. The 2014 Kentucky Derby (G1) champion and likely 2016 Eclipse Award winner for Horse of the Year is the -110 betting favorite in currently odds.
The second choice in the betting is Arrogate, who is the only horse to beat California Chrome last year, taking the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
The Bob Baffert trainee is listed at +130, but I think his price may drift south in the next couple of weeks.
Breaking Lucky is not yet listed but figures to be a longshot, likely in the neighborhood of +5000.
Betting Odds for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup:
Arrogate +130
California Chrome -110
Eragon +2000
Gun Runner +3000
Keen Ice +3500
Neolithic +3500
Semper Fortis +7500
Shaman Ghost +3500
Stanford +3500
War Story +6000
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Clm $30,000N2L (12:35 ET)
#7 Regal Kitten 3-1
#6 Market Strength 8-1
#2 Mr. Sam 4-1
#3 Extreme Justice 9-2
Analysis: Regal Kitten drops in for a tag after checking in fifth last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes at Churchill Downs. This colt was a game third two and three back at that level and now looks well spotted dropping in for a $30,000 tag here for the Sharp barn. The colt picked up his maiden win over the turf here last January with a last to first run.
Market Strength prompted the early pace while a bit rank and hard to rate early and ran out of gas late in a fourth place finish last out at this level. Three back at Belmont Park this guy was a good second against $40,000 non-winners of two. He sat off the pace in his maiden score which came at the Spa and if Edgar can get him to relax early he should get a good trip form mid pack. Worth a look here if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,3,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,3,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 9 OClm $25,000N1X (4:32 ET)
#3 Forced Motion 9-2
#4 Canadian Flyer 5-2
#5 Beantown Saint 6-1
#6 Tizcano 7-2
Analysis: Forced Motion was a sharp winner against $30,000 non-winners of two or three-year-olds in his first start off a five month layoff. The fourth place finisher Awesome My Way exited the race to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in his next start on Dec. 7 here. The gelding looks capable of handing the slightly tougher group here. He is out of a Dayjur mare that has dropped six other turf winners and three stakes winners, top earner Lord Sinclair ($420,961).
Canadian Flyer makes his first start since July for the Mott barn that is 16% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. This guy was sixth last out at the Spa against Alw-1 foes in a key race in which the winner, third, fourth and fifth place finishers all won next out. He has a couple of bullet works in the mornings at Payson for his return.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #6 Market Strength 8-1
R2: #2 Slipper Orchid 12-1
R3: #9 Kentira 8-1
R4: #7 Grubered 8-1
R5: #6 Cape Force 8-1
R6: #1 Brown Almighty 8-1
R7: #4 Sound Check 12-1
R8: #10 Whistle 10-1
R10: #4 Fan Base 15-1
Good luck today!
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$3300 - NON-WINNERS $1,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $500 HORSES THAT RACED FOR PURSE OF $6,500 OR HIGHER LAST 2 STS INEL AE: NON-WINNERS 3 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 3 CHANCELLORCULLEN N 2/1
# 5 ELECTRIC SHOOTER 5/2
# 2 CLARK P KENT 6/1
Really keen on the likelihood of CHANCELLORCULLEN N taking down the winner's share today. Could provide us a triumph based on really strong recent speed figs - earning an average of 89. With a 90 avg class number, this solid standardbred has one of the top class edges in the bunch. Racing solidly, earned a huge speed rating in his most recent outing (77). ELECTRIC SHOOTER - It's somewhat dicey to consider based only on class, but this gelding has among the best class markings of the group of horses. Should be given a look based on the formidable TrackMaster SR recorded in the last contest. CLARK P KENT - Have a gut feel this one might steal here.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$3300 - NON-WINNERS $1,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $500 HORSES THAT RACED FOR PURSE OF $6,500 OR HIGHER LAST 2 STS INEL AE: NON-WINNERS 3 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 3 CHANCELLORCULLEN N 2/1
# 5 ELECTRIC SHOOTER 5/2
# 2 CLARK P KENT 6/1
Really keen on the likelihood of CHANCELLORCULLEN N taking down the winner's share today. Could provide us a triumph based on really strong recent speed figs - earning an average of 89. With a 90 avg class number, this solid standardbred has one of the top class edges in the bunch. Racing solidly, earned a huge speed rating in his most recent outing (77). ELECTRIC SHOOTER - It's somewhat dicey to consider based only on class, but this gelding has among the best class markings of the group of horses. Should be given a look based on the formidable TrackMaster SR recorded in the last contest. CLARK P KENT - Have a gut feel this one might steal here.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Post: 1:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$3600 - SIX Y/O UNDER W/O 1 BUT N/M/T 3 PM
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 6 HSLB MICHELLE 7/2
# 4 OURLITTLEFLIRT 5/2
# 2 PINE BUSH MISSY 9/2
If you want a really strong play in this race, feast your eyes on HSLB MICHELLE. Can't overlook based on speed ratings which have been top notch (72 avg) within the recent past. Seems to have a good class advantage based on the competition she has raced against. Worth considering in this one if only for the great TrackMaster speed fig achieved in the most recent race. OURLITTLEFLIRT - If effort in the most recent gathering is any indicator, this race horse will have a very great shot for this race. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. The consortium happens to know that when you put Aldrich and McCracken together very good results are not far behind. PINE BUSH MISSY - Hands down the best hole at Monticello Raceway is the 2. The win percent is fantastic. The handicapping team knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This interesting entrant will unlock our way to a nice score.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Post: 1:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$3600 - SIX Y/O UNDER W/O 1 BUT N/M/T 3 PM
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 6 HSLB MICHELLE 7/2
# 4 OURLITTLEFLIRT 5/2
# 2 PINE BUSH MISSY 9/2
If you want a really strong play in this race, feast your eyes on HSLB MICHELLE. Can't overlook based on speed ratings which have been top notch (72 avg) within the recent past. Seems to have a good class advantage based on the competition she has raced against. Worth considering in this one if only for the great TrackMaster speed fig achieved in the most recent race. OURLITTLEFLIRT - If effort in the most recent gathering is any indicator, this race horse will have a very great shot for this race. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. The consortium happens to know that when you put Aldrich and McCracken together very good results are not far behind. PINE BUSH MISSY - Hands down the best hole at Monticello Raceway is the 2. The win percent is fantastic. The handicapping team knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This interesting entrant will unlock our way to a nice score.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 83
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE APRIL 12, 2016 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 29, 2016 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12, 2016 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 12, 2016 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 1 CONQUESTOR 5/1
# 9 WARRIOR QUALITY 7/2
# 4 SANDLER 2/1
I think CONQUESTOR is a competitive choice. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Ran a strong last race. Castro has shown excellent profits (+17 ROI ) at this distance/surface. WARRIOR QUALITY - Looks strong versus this field and will most likely be one of the early speedsters. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this horse a solid contender. SANDLER - He has been running quite well and the Speed Figures are among the strongest in this group. Should be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 83
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE APRIL 12, 2016 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 29, 2016 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12, 2016 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 12, 2016 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 1 CONQUESTOR 5/1
# 9 WARRIOR QUALITY 7/2
# 4 SANDLER 2/1
I think CONQUESTOR is a competitive choice. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Ran a strong last race. Castro has shown excellent profits (+17 ROI ) at this distance/surface. WARRIOR QUALITY - Looks strong versus this field and will most likely be one of the early speedsters. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this horse a solid contender. SANDLER - He has been running quite well and the Speed Figures are among the strongest in this group. Should be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 64
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 12 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 10 MS. SHOSHO 7/5
# 13 WIREDANCER 12/1
# 4 GENEROUS WOMAN 6/1
I think MS. SHOSHO is a very strong choice. Has garnered sound Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Should be considered based on the quite good speed figure put up in the last contest. Has very good Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this event. WIREDANCER - Is a strong contender based on figs garnered recently under today's conditions. GENEROUS WOMAN - Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. The speed fig of 64 from her most recent race looks competitive in here.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 64
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 12 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 10 MS. SHOSHO 7/5
# 13 WIREDANCER 12/1
# 4 GENEROUS WOMAN 6/1
I think MS. SHOSHO is a very strong choice. Has garnered sound Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Should be considered based on the quite good speed figure put up in the last contest. Has very good Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this event. WIREDANCER - Is a strong contender based on figs garnered recently under today's conditions. GENEROUS WOMAN - Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. The speed fig of 64 from her most recent race looks competitive in here.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 80
Rating:
#5 ISOLATION ROAD (ML=8/1)
#12 YOUARETRUE (ML=4/1)
#3 DR. DREW (ML=6/1)
ISOLATION ROAD - I like when a racer has dropped in class at least five class rating points like this one did last time around the track and then runs against a similar field right back. Lingenfelter must've found the right level. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 67 to 72 to 74 in succession. YOUARETRUE - This horse should be rumbling in the lane. DR. DREW - Ocasio and Graci perform well when they partner up. It's hard to beat a +252 return on investment for a jockey and conditioner. The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Graci. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 FINISHING A DREAM (ML=3/1), #1 PESCI TO DE NIRO (ML=5/1),
FINISHING A DREAM - Once you've got at least ten races at the venue and still have no triumphs, its tough to break through for a victory. You cannot keep making allowances for a pony that just doesn't win. Don't play him. No pace in this field to help set-up his closing rush. PESCI TO DE NIRO - This horse hasn't won in his last ten efforts. He's not worth the value today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 ISOLATION ROAD is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 80
Rating:
#5 ISOLATION ROAD (ML=8/1)
#12 YOUARETRUE (ML=4/1)
#3 DR. DREW (ML=6/1)
ISOLATION ROAD - I like when a racer has dropped in class at least five class rating points like this one did last time around the track and then runs against a similar field right back. Lingenfelter must've found the right level. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 67 to 72 to 74 in succession. YOUARETRUE - This horse should be rumbling in the lane. DR. DREW - Ocasio and Graci perform well when they partner up. It's hard to beat a +252 return on investment for a jockey and conditioner. The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Graci. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 FINISHING A DREAM (ML=3/1), #1 PESCI TO DE NIRO (ML=5/1),
FINISHING A DREAM - Once you've got at least ten races at the venue and still have no triumphs, its tough to break through for a victory. You cannot keep making allowances for a pony that just doesn't win. Don't play him. No pace in this field to help set-up his closing rush. PESCI TO DE NIRO - This horse hasn't won in his last ten efforts. He's not worth the value today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 ISOLATION ROAD is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Santa Anita - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 96
Rating:
#5 LONDON LEGACY (ML=5/1)
#1 MOMENTS NOTIZ (ML=5/2)
LONDON LEGACY - Last ran at Golden Gate Fields and finished seventh. Reviewing his Past Performances, I see he was close at the wire, within five of the winner. Last time out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the finish line this time around. MOMENTS NOTIZ - Ranked number 1 in earnings per race. Another sign that this horse has class. 62-81-95 are last 3 speed ratings. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SUCCESS RATE (ML=4/5), #3 ROYAL F J (ML=7/2),
SUCCESS RATE - This entrant hasn't been on the track since December 17th. Not even any morning blow outs. ROYAL F J - Tough to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. This horse ran a substandard fig last time around the track. He shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that number.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 LONDON LEGACY to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Santa Anita - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 96
Rating:
#5 LONDON LEGACY (ML=5/1)
#1 MOMENTS NOTIZ (ML=5/2)
LONDON LEGACY - Last ran at Golden Gate Fields and finished seventh. Reviewing his Past Performances, I see he was close at the wire, within five of the winner. Last time out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the finish line this time around. MOMENTS NOTIZ - Ranked number 1 in earnings per race. Another sign that this horse has class. 62-81-95 are last 3 speed ratings. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SUCCESS RATE (ML=4/5), #3 ROYAL F J (ML=7/2),
SUCCESS RATE - This entrant hasn't been on the track since December 17th. Not even any morning blow outs. ROYAL F J - Tough to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. This horse ran a substandard fig last time around the track. He shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that number.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 LONDON LEGACY to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEAR OLDS $25,000.00 CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE
#5 SILVER MISSION
#4 HE CAN DANCE
#6 DEAL DRIVEN
#2 TEN TWENTY NINE
#5 SILVER MISSION takes a BIG class drop (-23), has nice early speed sbilities to compliment for this inner track sprint, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five starts, hitting the board in three of those outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS": in his 4th and 5th races back. #4 HE CAN DANCE is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this claiming field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of his two career starts to date, including a maiden-breakikng, "POWER RUN WIN" ikn his last start.
RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEAR OLDS $25,000.00 CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE
#5 SILVER MISSION
#4 HE CAN DANCE
#6 DEAL DRIVEN
#2 TEN TWENTY NINE
#5 SILVER MISSION takes a BIG class drop (-23), has nice early speed sbilities to compliment for this inner track sprint, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five starts, hitting the board in three of those outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS": in his 4th and 5th races back. #4 HE CAN DANCE is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this claiming field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of his two career starts to date, including a maiden-breakikng, "POWER RUN WIN" ikn his last start.
Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/12 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 8,9/6,8,9/9/2,3,7,9/2,4 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,7,9/2,4/1,2,3,5,9/8 = $40
LATE PICK 4: 8/1,3,5/1,2,4/2,5,6,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 70 - 281 / $428.30 BEST BETS: 11 - 26 / $39.10
SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 25 / $38.20
Best Bet: AVA N ELLA (7th)
Spot Play: XELENE BAYAMA (1st)
Race 1
(8) XELENE BAYAMA immediately dropped four seconds last May when she shipped from Rideau to Mohawk and switched barns from Filion to Larocque. This isn't a tough group; top call. (9) FRANSCHOEK roared home but she was simply too far back last time. She looks much improved now; using. (6) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL couldn't close into an accelerating late pace racing on excess cover. She has a better chance to share here. (4) ON THE MINUTE MARK was also in a bad spot, racing first-up as the pace was quickening; for a slice.
Race 2
(6) FREE WILLY HANOVER trotted a 55 4/5 back 1/2 to take his third straight last time. He looks solid to extend that streak to four. (9) SUMMIT CITY TURBO has been racing well at Northfield and he is a recent purchase for owner/trainer/driver Zeron. He is worth a long look here. (8) GROUPIE DOLL set solid splits when 2nd to the choice. She should be a speed threat again. (5) DEUCE DEUCE DEUCE should be rallying for a slice here.
Race 3
(9) FINISH LINE ships in after sweeping a claiming stakes series in Ohio and he simply looks fastest here. He should prove tough to beat. (8) PONDAS LEXUS was sharp racing off a layoff on December 22nd. She would improve her chances if she landed in the choice's pocket here. (4) GIRL DRAMA seems to be coming back around for Henriksen now; notice her final 1/4 speed in her most recent start. (5) TOP DOLLAR should be closing for a smaller share here.
Race 4
(2) DUNESIDE SPORT exits several rapid miles. These should be more to his liking; slight nod. (9) FUTOMAKI endured a long trip but kept coming last time. A slightly better trip puts him right there with these. (7) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED was a sharp winner at Flamboro and holds a recency advantage on some of these; using. (3) LYONS DELIGHT is typically around the money. He should be good for a share here.
Race 5
(2) NIPS BEACH GIRL went a big trip at Flamboro Sunday, only to be overtaken late by the favorite. She should be very tough in here. (4) MATTJESTIC TEMPO signalled readiness with a blowout qualifying win at Flamboro and she is upped one class for her return, which is likely a good sign; using. (1) BOOZER BRUISER has raced well in two straight now. She looks like she has figured things out. (7) SWEETSHADYSHARK has raced great since being claimed and shipping north. She isn't out of the question here.
Race 6
In a race where nothing will surprise me, I'll take a swing with (5) EDL ANGEL, who looks improved and could trip-out racing near the front here. (9) PINGALING is another that looks improved and could pop at a price here. (3) ROAD LIGHT raced better with Cullen at the controls last time and she is another that could do here. (2) IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U should be good for a smaller share here.
Race 7
(8) AVA N ELLA set some big splits in her December 22nd qualifier but she was passed late by a promising colt that parlayed that victory into a win racing for a purse. She stands out here if she can reproduce that mile. (1) I WISH YOU WELL beat easier and she continues to improve her late speed. She looks next best. (10) I DEAL IN KISSES adds Lasix as she moves into Allard's barn. She should share. (4) JUST BLITZED finished just behind the choice last time; consider for exotics.
Race 8
(5) KEYSTONE KEEN stayed game despite enduring a long uncovered trip last time, which was the first time he raced in this class. He could get sent hard this time and that would likely improve his chances. (3) WOGGY ROCKS faces easier here and he should be prominent throughout. (1) IM DRINKIN DOUBLES won for Allard in a similar class at Flamboro in his first start off the claim. He is another to consider for Pick 4 tickets. (6) MONTE CHRISTO can take a smaller share here making his first start off a break.
Race 9
(2) SENSELESS BEAUTY was a sharp winner in her Woodbine debut and although she faces tougher here, she could be up to it. (1) KAYS SHADOW couldn't quite reach a determined winner last time, but that was her second very good mile in a row, which followed a long string of poor performances; using. (4) COLLECTIVE WISDOM continues to be a threat racing on or near the lead. (3) DOCS SAUSILITO is capable of better and she is likely to show it facing easier here.
Race 10
(2) NO BU was just short after setting solid fractions last time. He could be ready to wire these now. (5) I WANNA BE GEARED typically races well in this class, but notice the 18 slices vs. only four wins last year. (6) LIKEAVIRGIN went a huge trip to win at Flamboro on January 22nd; using. (7) CHEYENNE FORD blew up the tote board last time with McNair driving for the first time. He should be passing many of these late. (8) HIGHPOINT CHIP is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics with the barn change to Auciello.
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 8,9/6,8,9/9/2,3,7,9/2,4 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,7,9/2,4/1,2,3,5,9/8 = $40
LATE PICK 4: 8/1,3,5/1,2,4/2,5,6,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 70 - 281 / $428.30 BEST BETS: 11 - 26 / $39.10
SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 25 / $38.20
Best Bet: AVA N ELLA (7th)
Spot Play: XELENE BAYAMA (1st)
Race 1
(8) XELENE BAYAMA immediately dropped four seconds last May when she shipped from Rideau to Mohawk and switched barns from Filion to Larocque. This isn't a tough group; top call. (9) FRANSCHOEK roared home but she was simply too far back last time. She looks much improved now; using. (6) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL couldn't close into an accelerating late pace racing on excess cover. She has a better chance to share here. (4) ON THE MINUTE MARK was also in a bad spot, racing first-up as the pace was quickening; for a slice.
Race 2
(6) FREE WILLY HANOVER trotted a 55 4/5 back 1/2 to take his third straight last time. He looks solid to extend that streak to four. (9) SUMMIT CITY TURBO has been racing well at Northfield and he is a recent purchase for owner/trainer/driver Zeron. He is worth a long look here. (8) GROUPIE DOLL set solid splits when 2nd to the choice. She should be a speed threat again. (5) DEUCE DEUCE DEUCE should be rallying for a slice here.
Race 3
(9) FINISH LINE ships in after sweeping a claiming stakes series in Ohio and he simply looks fastest here. He should prove tough to beat. (8) PONDAS LEXUS was sharp racing off a layoff on December 22nd. She would improve her chances if she landed in the choice's pocket here. (4) GIRL DRAMA seems to be coming back around for Henriksen now; notice her final 1/4 speed in her most recent start. (5) TOP DOLLAR should be closing for a smaller share here.
Race 4
(2) DUNESIDE SPORT exits several rapid miles. These should be more to his liking; slight nod. (9) FUTOMAKI endured a long trip but kept coming last time. A slightly better trip puts him right there with these. (7) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED was a sharp winner at Flamboro and holds a recency advantage on some of these; using. (3) LYONS DELIGHT is typically around the money. He should be good for a share here.
Race 5
(2) NIPS BEACH GIRL went a big trip at Flamboro Sunday, only to be overtaken late by the favorite. She should be very tough in here. (4) MATTJESTIC TEMPO signalled readiness with a blowout qualifying win at Flamboro and she is upped one class for her return, which is likely a good sign; using. (1) BOOZER BRUISER has raced well in two straight now. She looks like she has figured things out. (7) SWEETSHADYSHARK has raced great since being claimed and shipping north. She isn't out of the question here.
Race 6
In a race where nothing will surprise me, I'll take a swing with (5) EDL ANGEL, who looks improved and could trip-out racing near the front here. (9) PINGALING is another that looks improved and could pop at a price here. (3) ROAD LIGHT raced better with Cullen at the controls last time and she is another that could do here. (2) IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U should be good for a smaller share here.
Race 7
(8) AVA N ELLA set some big splits in her December 22nd qualifier but she was passed late by a promising colt that parlayed that victory into a win racing for a purse. She stands out here if she can reproduce that mile. (1) I WISH YOU WELL beat easier and she continues to improve her late speed. She looks next best. (10) I DEAL IN KISSES adds Lasix as she moves into Allard's barn. She should share. (4) JUST BLITZED finished just behind the choice last time; consider for exotics.
Race 8
(5) KEYSTONE KEEN stayed game despite enduring a long uncovered trip last time, which was the first time he raced in this class. He could get sent hard this time and that would likely improve his chances. (3) WOGGY ROCKS faces easier here and he should be prominent throughout. (1) IM DRINKIN DOUBLES won for Allard in a similar class at Flamboro in his first start off the claim. He is another to consider for Pick 4 tickets. (6) MONTE CHRISTO can take a smaller share here making his first start off a break.
Race 9
(2) SENSELESS BEAUTY was a sharp winner in her Woodbine debut and although she faces tougher here, she could be up to it. (1) KAYS SHADOW couldn't quite reach a determined winner last time, but that was her second very good mile in a row, which followed a long string of poor performances; using. (4) COLLECTIVE WISDOM continues to be a threat racing on or near the lead. (3) DOCS SAUSILITO is capable of better and she is likely to show it facing easier here.
Race 10
(2) NO BU was just short after setting solid fractions last time. He could be ready to wire these now. (5) I WANNA BE GEARED typically races well in this class, but notice the 18 slices vs. only four wins last year. (6) LIKEAVIRGIN went a huge trip to win at Flamboro on January 22nd; using. (7) CHEYENNE FORD blew up the tote board last time with McNair driving for the first time. He should be passing many of these late. (8) HIGHPOINT CHIP is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics with the barn change to Auciello.
Yonkers: Thursday 1/12 Analysis
By Brewster Smith
DRF
FINAL 2016 MEET STATS: 295 - 1254 / $1,893.50
BEST BETS: 32 - 117 / $151.10
Best Bet: PIER HO TEMPTATION (3rd)
Spot Play: PRINCESS KATIE (7th)
Race 1
(3) JDS CALEB MAN moves back inside where this gelding showed fine speed two starts back. All systems should be go for this old pro to boss these down the road. (4) ADDWATER shot up the cones to grab the show spot in his recent outing; threat. (2) JOJO JOVE comes by way of Saratoga off an impressive victory from off the pace; not out of this.
Race 2
(1) PHOOS GIRL was dull in her last three trips to the post, however she catches a weak group of pacing mares and this 4-year-old miss moves to door number one where she has done her best racing. (2) SHE SAID impeded turning for home, she did get the job done but was taken down for win honors last time out; main danger. (3) JOKES JET flashed solid speed at the Meadowlands, but did not have enough gas in the tank to make her last start a winning one; capable.
Race 3
(5) PIER HO TEMPTATION was very sharp for the victory against winner overs company at Monticello last time around. Gelding appears to be in very good form, so the move to Yonkers and Brennan with the call could put him right back into the winner's circle. (2) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR gets class and post relief, and that should help his cause; maybe. (3) SOMETHING FOR DOC 9-year-old pacer moves back to Yonkers where he was a fast closing second three starts back; watch out.
Race 4
I'll try (1) SCOOTIN FOR JOY to put it all together. Pacing mare should fit well with these, moves to the fence and has tactical speed; factor. (3) CHILLED DESIRE A should be in a perfect spot and the drop in class should put her right in the mix; big threat for win honors. (4) MEDIA QUEEN N will need to return to her 12-2 start to make an impact against this group; quite possible.
Race 5
(4) CHANGE THE RULZ N did not fire her best at the Big M last time out, but the good news is she makes her return to the Hilltop and should find these to her liking; primed to get the job done. (1) MADE OF JEWELS AS took a tough break at the start against better stock last out and now this mare gets class relief plus Brennan will handle the reins; dangerous. (7) BABY REMIND ME was on the engine most of the way, but was nailed for the score in deep stretch recently; don't overlook.
Race 6
(1) WHAT I BELIEVE is a consistent gelding that seems to always be in the trifecta picture. He has excellent speed and moves to the fence; ready to boss these at his best. (3) MEETYOUATMIDNIGHT will have to revert to his 11-29 trip to have a say; possible with Bartlett at the controls. (7) ART OF ILLUSION was a good second upstate last time out. Post hurts, but with Brennan in charge he must be considered.
Race 7
(7) PRINCESS KATIE has put in three straight game efforts, so the winning form is there. And good to see Brennan with the call; primed to greet the cameraman for pictures. (1) DUNE IN RED gets serious post relief plus fits well against this group; big threat. (5) ROCKN RUBY N comes by way of Delaware with back class, but will need to put it all together to top these; maybe.
Race 8
(6) SAMS ESCAPE was sent down the road in his latest to take down the victory. Eleven-year-old pro is in solid form based on his last three outings, so a repeat effort is well within the realm. (2) SITXIT TO EM N was quite dull in his last try, but was a pocket-rocket winner at Philly two starts back; factor. (7) LUCKY MCTRUCKY seems to always do his best at Yonkers; clearly not out of this.
Race 9
(5) ROCK ABSORBER seems to heading in the right direction based on his last start. With a favorable trip, he can make tonight a winning one. (1) PAPPYS PAL was on the lead most of the way, but the gas ran out on this gelding and he had to settle for second money; player. (4) FASHION DELIGHT moves back to Yonkers off two dull efforts. Did get the job done here three starts back, so there's hope for him to get back to the winning grove; maybe.
Race 10
(5) BROWN BRINNY has good tactical speed and she hit the board 12 of 24 starts last year; poised to return to her winning ways. (3) CANACO STAR 11-year-old miss has been quite sharp in her last three tries and a favorable trip could put her right back in the winning grove; big threat. (1) ALHAMBRA gets serious post and class relief; must be considered in all the exotic slots.
By Brewster Smith
DRF
FINAL 2016 MEET STATS: 295 - 1254 / $1,893.50
BEST BETS: 32 - 117 / $151.10
Best Bet: PIER HO TEMPTATION (3rd)
Spot Play: PRINCESS KATIE (7th)
Race 1
(3) JDS CALEB MAN moves back inside where this gelding showed fine speed two starts back. All systems should be go for this old pro to boss these down the road. (4) ADDWATER shot up the cones to grab the show spot in his recent outing; threat. (2) JOJO JOVE comes by way of Saratoga off an impressive victory from off the pace; not out of this.
Race 2
(1) PHOOS GIRL was dull in her last three trips to the post, however she catches a weak group of pacing mares and this 4-year-old miss moves to door number one where she has done her best racing. (2) SHE SAID impeded turning for home, she did get the job done but was taken down for win honors last time out; main danger. (3) JOKES JET flashed solid speed at the Meadowlands, but did not have enough gas in the tank to make her last start a winning one; capable.
Race 3
(5) PIER HO TEMPTATION was very sharp for the victory against winner overs company at Monticello last time around. Gelding appears to be in very good form, so the move to Yonkers and Brennan with the call could put him right back into the winner's circle. (2) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR gets class and post relief, and that should help his cause; maybe. (3) SOMETHING FOR DOC 9-year-old pacer moves back to Yonkers where he was a fast closing second three starts back; watch out.
Race 4
I'll try (1) SCOOTIN FOR JOY to put it all together. Pacing mare should fit well with these, moves to the fence and has tactical speed; factor. (3) CHILLED DESIRE A should be in a perfect spot and the drop in class should put her right in the mix; big threat for win honors. (4) MEDIA QUEEN N will need to return to her 12-2 start to make an impact against this group; quite possible.
Race 5
(4) CHANGE THE RULZ N did not fire her best at the Big M last time out, but the good news is she makes her return to the Hilltop and should find these to her liking; primed to get the job done. (1) MADE OF JEWELS AS took a tough break at the start against better stock last out and now this mare gets class relief plus Brennan will handle the reins; dangerous. (7) BABY REMIND ME was on the engine most of the way, but was nailed for the score in deep stretch recently; don't overlook.
Race 6
(1) WHAT I BELIEVE is a consistent gelding that seems to always be in the trifecta picture. He has excellent speed and moves to the fence; ready to boss these at his best. (3) MEETYOUATMIDNIGHT will have to revert to his 11-29 trip to have a say; possible with Bartlett at the controls. (7) ART OF ILLUSION was a good second upstate last time out. Post hurts, but with Brennan in charge he must be considered.
Race 7
(7) PRINCESS KATIE has put in three straight game efforts, so the winning form is there. And good to see Brennan with the call; primed to greet the cameraman for pictures. (1) DUNE IN RED gets serious post relief plus fits well against this group; big threat. (5) ROCKN RUBY N comes by way of Delaware with back class, but will need to put it all together to top these; maybe.
Race 8
(6) SAMS ESCAPE was sent down the road in his latest to take down the victory. Eleven-year-old pro is in solid form based on his last three outings, so a repeat effort is well within the realm. (2) SITXIT TO EM N was quite dull in his last try, but was a pocket-rocket winner at Philly two starts back; factor. (7) LUCKY MCTRUCKY seems to always do his best at Yonkers; clearly not out of this.
Race 9
(5) ROCK ABSORBER seems to heading in the right direction based on his last start. With a favorable trip, he can make tonight a winning one. (1) PAPPYS PAL was on the lead most of the way, but the gas ran out on this gelding and he had to settle for second money; player. (4) FASHION DELIGHT moves back to Yonkers off two dull efforts. Did get the job done here three starts back, so there's hope for him to get back to the winning grove; maybe.
Race 10
(5) BROWN BRINNY has good tactical speed and she hit the board 12 of 24 starts last year; poised to return to her winning ways. (3) CANACO STAR 11-year-old miss has been quite sharp in her last three tries and a favorable trip could put her right back in the winning grove; big threat. (1) ALHAMBRA gets serious post and class relief; must be considered in all the exotic slots.
Spot Plays
For Thursday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (3rd) He Can Dance, 3-1
(4th) Stony Brook, 4-1
Charles Town (6th) Courtisinsession, 9-2
(8th) Noble Hustle, 5-1
Delta Downs (6th) Purely Blessed, 4-1
(9th) Malila, 7-2
Fair Grounds (5th) Ten to Midnight, 6-1
(6th) Elenzee, 5-1
Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Bold U., 4-1
(4th) Floating Feather, 7-2
Gulfstream Park (6th) The Son Wind, 9-2
(7th) To Your Health, 6-1
Penn National (3rd) Sweet Candy, 4-1
(4th) D C Dancer, 6-1
Santa Anita (6th) Wrightwood, 4-1
(7th) Air Pocket, 6-1
Turfway Park (1st) Rose’s Valenwine, 7-2
(6th) In the Shoes, 7-2
For Thursday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (3rd) He Can Dance, 3-1
(4th) Stony Brook, 4-1
Charles Town (6th) Courtisinsession, 9-2
(8th) Noble Hustle, 5-1
Delta Downs (6th) Purely Blessed, 4-1
(9th) Malila, 7-2
Fair Grounds (5th) Ten to Midnight, 6-1
(6th) Elenzee, 5-1
Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Bold U., 4-1
(4th) Floating Feather, 7-2
Gulfstream Park (6th) The Son Wind, 9-2
(7th) To Your Health, 6-1
Penn National (3rd) Sweet Candy, 4-1
(4th) D C Dancer, 6-1
Santa Anita (6th) Wrightwood, 4-1
(7th) Air Pocket, 6-1
Turfway Park (1st) Rose’s Valenwine, 7-2
(6th) In the Shoes, 7-2
