Hornets Tonight - Convince Me Not To Unload On Them

[oldmanTED]

Been awhile since I have posted a play in the Offshore Forum as I try to abide by our policy, but this just looks too good, so I wanted to share with you guys.

The Cavaliers are going to be without Delonte West (broken hand), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (broken ankle), likely Ben Wallace (intestinal flu) plus Lebron James is coming off his worst performance of the year, with a cold, while losing in Chicago last night. Meanwhile, the Hornets are now at full strength with Tyson Chandler back and Chris Paul coming off one of his best performances of the year with nearly a rare quadruple-double with 33 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and 7 steals in a road win over Dallas two days ago. With David West and Tyson Chandler controlling the boards, looks like a hard time for the Cavaliers. Lastly, the Hornets have won 4 of the last 5 from the Cavs.

Looks like Hornets either +2.5 or +120 to me! Comments welcome.

 

[JakeT.]

To play devil's advocate:

Hornets are just 11-7 on the road.
Hornets won earlier this year, Cavs looking for revenge.
Line has moved steadily down from -6.5, meaning you missed chances at much better value.
Hornets have played poor D their last 5.

 

[Betallsports]

Kind of like it myself, but worried that the Cavs don't lose too many games Back to Back.

Also, last night the Cavs should have won that game. Only because LJ slipped on the pass, the Bulls got the Ball back. ( on the Bounce )
Otherwise, No OT and the Cavs hold the ball and most likely win.

But you won't find me trying to talk you out of Betting.
BOL !

 

[Mistermj]

Been awhile since I have posted a play in the Offshore Forum as I try to abide by our policy, but this just looks too good, so I wanted to share with you guys.

The Cavaliers are going to be without Delonte West (broken hand), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (broken ankle), likely Ben Wallace (intestinal flu) plus Lebron James is coming off his worst performance of the year, with a cold, while losing in Chicago last night. Meanwhile, the Hornets are now at full strength with Tyson Chandler back and Chris Paul coming off one of his best performances of the year with nearly a rare quadruple-double with 33 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and 7 steals in a road win over Dallas two days ago. With David West and Tyson Chandler controlling the boards, looks like a hard time for the Cavaliers. Lastly, the Hornets have won 4 of the last 5 from the Cavs.

Looks like Hornets either +2.5 or +120 to me! Comments welcome.

I poached this post from another forum...but he makes the case for caution in my opinion. :toast:

BET ON THE TEAMS WITH INJURED / SUSPENDED PLAYERS OUT

ESPECIALLY IF IT A STAR PLAYER AND ESPECIALLY THE VERY FIRST GAME THE PLAY WITHOUT THAT PLAYER

I KNOW ITS HARD TO DO, BUT THE RESULTS ARE THERE !!

I DONT KNOW IF THE REST OF THE TEAM TIGHTENS THEIR BELT AND PLAYS HARDER OR THE OTHER TEAMS DONT PLAY AS HARD AND ARE TAKING IT EASY EXPECTING AN EASY WIN , OR VEGAS OVER ADJUST THE LINE DUE TO THE INJURY

HERE ARE JUST A FEW EXAMPLES THIS YEAR:


** BRANDON ROY OUT TONIGHT FOR PORTLAND - THEY WIN STAIGHT UP


** STEVE NASH OUT TONIGHT - THEY WIN AND COVER


** DIRK NOWITSKI SUSPENDED THIS PAST SUNDAY - DALLAS WINS BY 20 +


** PHILLY LOSES ELTON BRAND AND THEY COVER THEIR NEXT THREE GAMES


** ORLANDO LOSES DWIGHT HOWARD AND THEY WIN AT UTAH ( S/U AS A 7 1/2 PT DOG ) AND AT GOLDEN ST ON DEC 13TH AND 15TH



** DENVER WUTHOUT MELO WINS S/U AGAINST PORT


** UTAH JAZZ THE LAST -3 GAMES --- PAUL MILSAP WHO REPLACED AN INJURED CARLOS BOOZER AND HAD 15 STRAIGHT DOUBLE DOUBLES GOT HURT - FOR TWO STRAIGHT GAMES THEY WERE WITHOUT THEIR ENTIRE FRONTCOURT

BOOZER / OKUR / MILSAP / COLLINS - ALL OUT

GUESS WHAT ?? THE JUST WON AND COVERED THEIR LAST 3 GAMES ( OKUR PLAYED IN THE LAST ONE ) - WINNING S/U AT HOUSTON !!!!! AND BEATING AND COVERING DALLAS AND PHILLY



** DEC 10TH - PHOENIX TRADED RAJA BELL AND BORIS DIAW AND SHAQ WAS INJURED AND DIDNT PLAY ... COVERED EASILY AGAINST THE LAKERS



** HOUSTONS FIRST GAME WITHOUT McGrady THEY BLEW OUT THE SPURS


*** THE MOST AMAZING ONE-- THE SPURS ALREADY WITHOUT GINOBLI LOSE TONY PARKER -- COVER 7 OF THERE 9 NEXT GAMES WITHOUT PARKER !!!!!

***********

 

[ProPokerPlayer]

Hornets have been up and down all yr, right now their up and the play does look good....
Only thing scares me is the Lebron flu thing......Seems like most times they say a guy is going to be slowed by the flu, in any sport, if he plays he's lights out...

 

[D2bets]

Game of the year against 19-0 home Cleveland giving 2.5 points?

Ya never know, but it strikes of trying to be just a little too clever. I wouldn't do it. If you lose you're going to wonder why you bet against Cleveland at home.

 

[mj23]

I like it Ted !! G L

 

[stef]

OMT This scares me when you talk like this. From my experience of reading your posts this does not sound like you. Best of luck with whatever you do.

 

[FeelTheTruth]

Lebron at home on national TV

GL

 

[oldmanTED]

Some excellent comments from respected posters and very much appreciated. Just for information, you may want to check out the pre-game show NBA Shoot-Around on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. EST perhaps to get the latest updates on the health conditions of Ben Wallace and Lebron James. Bye the way, for the record, I did not call this a Game Of The Year. Just a very strong play. Keep your thoughts coming.

 

[whormoan]

This line opened 6 last nite. The ship has sailed.

 

[mj23]

This line opened 6 last nite. The ship has sailed.

Like George Strait once sang "I got the paddle I got the Boat come on baby I know she'll float "

 

[FairWarning]

This line opened 6 last nite. The ship has sailed.

Sure hard taking 2.5 when you could have had 6.

 

[oldmanTED]

Latest Update: Ben Wallace Is Starting

 

[oldmanTED]

Gentlemen:

I thought it appropriate since I started this thread and asked for your opinions, to let you know my final decision. The play is a go, but not on the moneyline, but with the +2.5. The phone calls have been made.

 

[seriousaddiction]

^was about to say Ben Wallace is playing. Now that this is cleared up. NO has been up and down all year and look to have it rolling finally. CP is playing amazing and the Hornets are starting to play great offensively. Only thing that scares me about this game is the lazy defense the Hornets tend to play. James absolutely explodes when he is on a national stage and as we all know this game is on TV for the whole country to see. LeBron is having yet another MVP year and is coming off one of the worst games he has had in as long as I can remember. Def won't happen two nights in a row. LeBron got away from his game last night as he took way too many jump shots and didn't slash to the basket as much as he knows he should. He addressed that after the game and realizes he needs to be going to the basket more as no one can stop him. Cavs are by far and away the best home team in the NBA and if they get home court throughout the playoffs I don't see anyone, except maybe the Lakers taking them out. If you are or were going to take the Hornets as someone has already stated, that ship has sailed. If you could have gotten this game at 6.5 then it might have been worthy of a play. This line is all the way down to 2 at some places and you can't lose out on that much value. You win money by getting the best possible number and giving up 4.5 points in less than 12 hours is NOT getting the best number. Good luck on your play OMT as its obvious you follow the league and know your shit, but I personally will be on the CAVS tonight.

 

[JakeT.]

+3's now. I'll jump if I see a +3.5 in the next 2 minutes.

 

[seriousaddiction]

I refuse to bet against Cleveland at home. Especially on a Friday night game on national TV. there will just be that much more drunk rowdy people. Biggest game since last week....where the cavs beat and covered against a better BOSTON team

 

[JakeT.]

Hell, I have nothing tonight. Adding +3 -107. Let's get this one in.

 

[seriousaddiction]

I know NBA is 3 for the show and 1 for the dough but I don't know how you bet against this team when they are at home. I haven't seen a home court advantage in the NBA like this one in years....19-0 and counting