6-7-1 YTD.
I will post some early ones before the lines change any more.
Thursday:
Still looking at this one
Friday:
Florida State (+2)
Had this one circled for a while.
The Canes are only 6-12 ATS as a Home Fav under Larry Coker.
They only returns 4 starters on defense and FSU returns their entire O-Line. I think the Noles will be able to platoon Washington and Booker and run effectively on the Canes. This will open up the offense for Chris Rix, my Heisman pick this year. Rix has proven he can win big games and Brock Berlin really has not. Berlin was bailed out by a great defense last year. He won't have that luxury in this one.
Saturday:
Iowa State (+25)
All the trends point to Iowa, but I feel that they may be getting overvalued as a home chalk, much like Maryland did LW (got suckered on that one).
The visitor is also 13-4 ATS the L17 in this series.
Iowa only returns 2 starters on offense and only starts 2 seniors. The Hawkeyes were able to play ball control against Kent LW, but they barely were able to run for over 4.0 ypc. ISU held Northern Iowa (yes, I know Northern Iowa) to under 100 yds total offense (99 to be exact).
This is just too many points here.
I also like Auburn, but I am waiting to see if I can get -10 or 10.5.
Penn State (-1')
The Lions are 16-4 ATS and SU their L20 road openers.
PSU's offense looked very crisp LW and their defense wasn't to shabby either. They held Akron and Charlie Frye to 222 pass yards (most he got in the 2nd H).
Meanwhile, BC looked terrible on offense and consistently gave Ball State great field position LW and BSU just couldn't capitalize. Penn State will do just that.
Notre Dame (+14)
I promised myself I would stay away from this one, but I couldn't control it.
I think Michigan's atrocious Special Teams keeps this within the # by itself.
UM is only 13-21-1 ATS as a Home Fav under Carr. They are also 0-6 ATS in their L6 road openers.
The Dog is 14-3-1 ATS since 1980.
Michigan did not look crisp on offense at all. They ran the ball 40 times for only 132 yards (3.3. ypc). They were given 2 TD's (4th Quarter) by Miami turning it over in their own red zone.
Notre Dame was not able to run the ball well at all (11 net yards), but that should at least improve a little with Ryan Grant back in the lineup. However, Brady Quinn, when he had time, made good throws and didn't turn the ball over. Henne is a true frosh making his first road start and I think Notre Dame will be able to put enough pressure on to force him to make bad throws.
Colorado (+3)
The Buffaloes are 10-5 ATS as a Road Dog under Barnett, while Wazzu was only 2-4 ATS as a Home Fav under Doba LY. This game is in Seattle, but is still a home game for the Cougs.
CU's defense held Marcus Houston and the CSU rushing offense to 56 yards on 28 carries (2.0 ypc), but did allow Justin Holland to throw for 400 yards.
WSU's Josh Swogger threw 3 TDs and 2 INTs LW and was sacked 5 times. The Cougs will have success throwing the ball, but likely not running the ball (31 carries-55 yards @ New Mexico).
CU, led by Bobby Purify, ran for 260 yards and averaged a little under 6 ypc. Wazzu allowed New Mexico to run for almost 5.5 ypc and 233 total rushing yards. Will Derting can't do it all by himself for the Cougar defense.
Stanford (-3')
Letdown game for BYU here.
The Cougars are only 3-13 ATS their L16 road openers and are 8-18 ATS after a SU win.
Stanford is 4-0 ATS as a Home Fav under Buddy Teevens and are 14-4 ATS in September the last 4 years.
BYU is coming in on a high after beating Notre Dame, while Stanford blew the doors off of San Jose State LW (43-3).
Georgia Tech (+7)
The dog is 14-1 ATS in this series. That's not my main reason for picking GT here. I think Clemson is overrated and I went against them LW.
Clemson is only 5-10-1 ATS at home vs the ACC.
The Tigers allowed just under 300 yards on the ground to Wake Forest and they have a very young defensive Front 7. PJ Daniels and Reggie Ball will be able to move the ball easily.
Texas Tech (-3')
The Red Raiders are 5-3 ATS as a Road Fav under Leach (18-8-1 ATS as a Fav under Leach).
New Mexico had some trouble stopping the pass attack of Wazzu and they'll really have trouble here.
Texas (-10')
The Horns gained 673 yards LW (513 on the ground) and looked about as good as they could look. This is a huge revenge game for them and I look for them to roll over an inexperienced Razorback squad.
Texas was 5-0 SU and ATS as a Road Fav LY and are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a double-digit Fav.
Alabama (-10')
The SU winner is 18-2 ATS in this series/
Ole Miss is only 5-14 ATS L19 vs Bama.
Ole Miss QB Spurlock only completed 35% of passes vs. Memphis.
Bama ran for almost 7 yards a carry (285 total yds). Ole Miss only returns 1 Front Seven starter and I see Bama running for a lot in this one.
Utah State (-10')
Mainly a play against Idaho here. They were down 65-0 until 1:20 left in the game. They only had 141 yards total offense until a 71-yd TD run.
USU is 4-2 ATS as a Home Fav under Dennehy. The favorite is also 4-2 ATS in this series since 1996.
Utah State was at least able to somewhat move the ball against Alabama.
I will post some early ones before the lines change any more.
Thursday:
Still looking at this one
Friday:
Florida State (+2)
Had this one circled for a while.
The Canes are only 6-12 ATS as a Home Fav under Larry Coker.
They only returns 4 starters on defense and FSU returns their entire O-Line. I think the Noles will be able to platoon Washington and Booker and run effectively on the Canes. This will open up the offense for Chris Rix, my Heisman pick this year. Rix has proven he can win big games and Brock Berlin really has not. Berlin was bailed out by a great defense last year. He won't have that luxury in this one.
Saturday:
Iowa State (+25)
All the trends point to Iowa, but I feel that they may be getting overvalued as a home chalk, much like Maryland did LW (got suckered on that one).
The visitor is also 13-4 ATS the L17 in this series.
Iowa only returns 2 starters on offense and only starts 2 seniors. The Hawkeyes were able to play ball control against Kent LW, but they barely were able to run for over 4.0 ypc. ISU held Northern Iowa (yes, I know Northern Iowa) to under 100 yds total offense (99 to be exact).
This is just too many points here.
I also like Auburn, but I am waiting to see if I can get -10 or 10.5.
Penn State (-1')
The Lions are 16-4 ATS and SU their L20 road openers.
PSU's offense looked very crisp LW and their defense wasn't to shabby either. They held Akron and Charlie Frye to 222 pass yards (most he got in the 2nd H).
Meanwhile, BC looked terrible on offense and consistently gave Ball State great field position LW and BSU just couldn't capitalize. Penn State will do just that.
Notre Dame (+14)
I promised myself I would stay away from this one, but I couldn't control it.
I think Michigan's atrocious Special Teams keeps this within the # by itself.
UM is only 13-21-1 ATS as a Home Fav under Carr. They are also 0-6 ATS in their L6 road openers.
The Dog is 14-3-1 ATS since 1980.
Michigan did not look crisp on offense at all. They ran the ball 40 times for only 132 yards (3.3. ypc). They were given 2 TD's (4th Quarter) by Miami turning it over in their own red zone.
Notre Dame was not able to run the ball well at all (11 net yards), but that should at least improve a little with Ryan Grant back in the lineup. However, Brady Quinn, when he had time, made good throws and didn't turn the ball over. Henne is a true frosh making his first road start and I think Notre Dame will be able to put enough pressure on to force him to make bad throws.
Colorado (+3)
The Buffaloes are 10-5 ATS as a Road Dog under Barnett, while Wazzu was only 2-4 ATS as a Home Fav under Doba LY. This game is in Seattle, but is still a home game for the Cougs.
CU's defense held Marcus Houston and the CSU rushing offense to 56 yards on 28 carries (2.0 ypc), but did allow Justin Holland to throw for 400 yards.
WSU's Josh Swogger threw 3 TDs and 2 INTs LW and was sacked 5 times. The Cougs will have success throwing the ball, but likely not running the ball (31 carries-55 yards @ New Mexico).
CU, led by Bobby Purify, ran for 260 yards and averaged a little under 6 ypc. Wazzu allowed New Mexico to run for almost 5.5 ypc and 233 total rushing yards. Will Derting can't do it all by himself for the Cougar defense.
Stanford (-3')
Letdown game for BYU here.
The Cougars are only 3-13 ATS their L16 road openers and are 8-18 ATS after a SU win.
Stanford is 4-0 ATS as a Home Fav under Buddy Teevens and are 14-4 ATS in September the last 4 years.
BYU is coming in on a high after beating Notre Dame, while Stanford blew the doors off of San Jose State LW (43-3).
Georgia Tech (+7)
The dog is 14-1 ATS in this series. That's not my main reason for picking GT here. I think Clemson is overrated and I went against them LW.
Clemson is only 5-10-1 ATS at home vs the ACC.
The Tigers allowed just under 300 yards on the ground to Wake Forest and they have a very young defensive Front 7. PJ Daniels and Reggie Ball will be able to move the ball easily.
Texas Tech (-3')
The Red Raiders are 5-3 ATS as a Road Fav under Leach (18-8-1 ATS as a Fav under Leach).
New Mexico had some trouble stopping the pass attack of Wazzu and they'll really have trouble here.
Texas (-10')
The Horns gained 673 yards LW (513 on the ground) and looked about as good as they could look. This is a huge revenge game for them and I look for them to roll over an inexperienced Razorback squad.
Texas was 5-0 SU and ATS as a Road Fav LY and are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a double-digit Fav.
Alabama (-10')
The SU winner is 18-2 ATS in this series/
Ole Miss is only 5-14 ATS L19 vs Bama.
Ole Miss QB Spurlock only completed 35% of passes vs. Memphis.
Bama ran for almost 7 yards a carry (285 total yds). Ole Miss only returns 1 Front Seven starter and I see Bama running for a lot in this one.
Utah State (-10')
Mainly a play against Idaho here. They were down 65-0 until 1:20 left in the game. They only had 141 yards total offense until a 71-yd TD run.
USU is 4-2 ATS as a Home Fav under Dennehy. The favorite is also 4-2 ATS in this series since 1996.
Utah State was at least able to somewhat move the ball against Alabama.
