Still dissecting tonight's 2 games.
Here are the plays I have so far and may add more as the weekend goes on.
Boston College (+1)
BC is simply the better team here.
They are 11-0-1 ATS with revenge off a SU and ATS win and 10-2 ATS as a non-conference Road Dog (Fav at a lot of places though) off a win and cover (vs. UConn LW).
Wake is only 2-9 ATS their L11 at home off a win vs. an opponent off a win.
The Deacs are also 0-5 ATS off a non-conf game vs. an opponent off BB wins and are 0-5 ATS off a DD win vs. an opponent with revenge.
They are also not a good bet as home chalk (3-7-1 ATS under Grobe).
Last year, Wake scored a 32-28 upset in Chestnut Hill.
Boston College won the overwhelming majority of snaps that day, showing a clear superiority at the line of scrimmage. The Eagles led 28-16 in first downs and 443-309 in total offense. But the Demon Deacons did what they often do to an opponent that is seeing Jim Grobe's schemes for the first time they made big plays. The offense struck for touchdowns on a 75 yard run and a 43 yard pass, while the defense contributed a fumble return for another score.
However, I don't expect Wake to score many big plays in this one. O'Brien will have his team prepared for this offense. Plus, BC's defensive front is only allowing only 78 yards per game on the ground.
NC State (+9)
The Wolfpack are usually known for their offense, well it is their defense that is the team's strength this year. The Pack shut down Ohio State last week, helping to compile an almost 2-1 edge in total offense. The Buckeyes had only 64 yards passing and 73 rushing for 137 total yards. Their only TD drive was 3 yards off a turnover.
NC State doesn't have their usual great QB, but they do have a solid running game. In his first game back, T. A. McLendon ran for 94 yards at 6.3 per carry vs. Ohio State in limited duty.
NC State is 7-0 ATS as a dog vs. conference opponents off a SU and ATS loss.
The Wolfpack is also 9-0 ATS as a Road Dog under Chuck Amato.
I am not that impressed with Virginia Tech this year and I actually think these teams are relatively even.
Louisville (-7)
UNC has a terrible defense and U of L should score at will. The Heels will also put up some points, but I don't see them being able to keep up.
UNC is 4-8 ATS as Home Dogs under Bunting and are 1-5 ATS as Home Dogs versus winning opponents.
U of L is 3-1 ATS as Road Favs under Petrino and 6-2 ATS their L8 non-conference road games, while UNC is only 5-14 ATS their L19 home non-conference games.
Texas Tech (-6)
I usually do not like to back Conference Road Favs here, but I like the Red Raiders on this spot. They finally seemed to get their offense going LW against TCU. I think that will give them confidence here.
The Red Raiders are 19-9-1 ATS as a fav under Mike Leach (only 5-4 on the road though). TT is also 8-3 ATS in their conference opener and 6-1-1 ATS as a fav vs. above .500 opp.
Meanwhile, KU comes off a tough loss at Northwestern LW and are only 4-10 ATS off a loss their L14.
The Fighting Manginos are only 2-7 ATS as a Home Dog since the Fatman arrived. They also may be looking ahead to Nebraska since the Huskers are in the North Division and that division is absolutely wide open this year.
UAB (+3)
Memphis came back LW in the 4th Qtr to beat Arkansas State and UAB lost 34-7 at FSU LW (even though they didn't look all that bad against them).
I love UAB getting points at home. They are 10-3-1 ATS as a Home Dog under Watson Brown. The dog is also 5-0 ATS the L5 in the series and UAB is 4-0 ATS the L4 in the series.
The Blazers are also 14-3 ATS as dogs off a loss and 10-1 ATS as dogs off a loss vs. an opponent off a win.
Alabama (+6)
Overreaction to the loss of Brodie Croyle. Marc Guillion was at Miami (FL) and had a great offseason and preseason camp from everything I read.
Arkansas is really overrated form their strong performance in a loss at home vs. Texas.
Bama is 5-1 ATS their L6 when in a revenge role from a home loss.
The dog is 5-2 ATS the L7 in this series.
Meanwhile, the Hogs are only 1-8 ATS as HF's off a DD SU win (over UL Monroe LW) vs. an opp off a SU win (Bama over W. Carolina).
Bama has the better running game and defense.
Louisiana Tech (+24)
Pretty much a situational play here. Tennessee comes off a huge emotional last-second win over Florida and has Auburn next week.
Tennessee has only covered 3 of their L10 Homecoming games.
Meanwhile, La Tech is 7-1-1 ATS as a dog off a SU loss vs. an opponent off a win.
La. Tech can run the ball effectively with Ryan Moats behind a big OL to at least move the ball and stay close with the Vols.
Will add a couple more fairly soon, but I am trying to keep my card a little smaller this weekend.
GL
HD
Here are the plays I have so far and may add more as the weekend goes on.
Boston College (+1)
BC is simply the better team here.
They are 11-0-1 ATS with revenge off a SU and ATS win and 10-2 ATS as a non-conference Road Dog (Fav at a lot of places though) off a win and cover (vs. UConn LW).
Wake is only 2-9 ATS their L11 at home off a win vs. an opponent off a win.
The Deacs are also 0-5 ATS off a non-conf game vs. an opponent off BB wins and are 0-5 ATS off a DD win vs. an opponent with revenge.
They are also not a good bet as home chalk (3-7-1 ATS under Grobe).
Last year, Wake scored a 32-28 upset in Chestnut Hill.
Boston College won the overwhelming majority of snaps that day, showing a clear superiority at the line of scrimmage. The Eagles led 28-16 in first downs and 443-309 in total offense. But the Demon Deacons did what they often do to an opponent that is seeing Jim Grobe's schemes for the first time they made big plays. The offense struck for touchdowns on a 75 yard run and a 43 yard pass, while the defense contributed a fumble return for another score.
However, I don't expect Wake to score many big plays in this one. O'Brien will have his team prepared for this offense. Plus, BC's defensive front is only allowing only 78 yards per game on the ground.
NC State (+9)
The Wolfpack are usually known for their offense, well it is their defense that is the team's strength this year. The Pack shut down Ohio State last week, helping to compile an almost 2-1 edge in total offense. The Buckeyes had only 64 yards passing and 73 rushing for 137 total yards. Their only TD drive was 3 yards off a turnover.
NC State doesn't have their usual great QB, but they do have a solid running game. In his first game back, T. A. McLendon ran for 94 yards at 6.3 per carry vs. Ohio State in limited duty.
NC State is 7-0 ATS as a dog vs. conference opponents off a SU and ATS loss.
The Wolfpack is also 9-0 ATS as a Road Dog under Chuck Amato.
I am not that impressed with Virginia Tech this year and I actually think these teams are relatively even.
Louisville (-7)
UNC has a terrible defense and U of L should score at will. The Heels will also put up some points, but I don't see them being able to keep up.
UNC is 4-8 ATS as Home Dogs under Bunting and are 1-5 ATS as Home Dogs versus winning opponents.
U of L is 3-1 ATS as Road Favs under Petrino and 6-2 ATS their L8 non-conference road games, while UNC is only 5-14 ATS their L19 home non-conference games.
Texas Tech (-6)
I usually do not like to back Conference Road Favs here, but I like the Red Raiders on this spot. They finally seemed to get their offense going LW against TCU. I think that will give them confidence here.
The Red Raiders are 19-9-1 ATS as a fav under Mike Leach (only 5-4 on the road though). TT is also 8-3 ATS in their conference opener and 6-1-1 ATS as a fav vs. above .500 opp.
Meanwhile, KU comes off a tough loss at Northwestern LW and are only 4-10 ATS off a loss their L14.
The Fighting Manginos are only 2-7 ATS as a Home Dog since the Fatman arrived. They also may be looking ahead to Nebraska since the Huskers are in the North Division and that division is absolutely wide open this year.
UAB (+3)
Memphis came back LW in the 4th Qtr to beat Arkansas State and UAB lost 34-7 at FSU LW (even though they didn't look all that bad against them).
I love UAB getting points at home. They are 10-3-1 ATS as a Home Dog under Watson Brown. The dog is also 5-0 ATS the L5 in the series and UAB is 4-0 ATS the L4 in the series.
The Blazers are also 14-3 ATS as dogs off a loss and 10-1 ATS as dogs off a loss vs. an opponent off a win.
Alabama (+6)
Overreaction to the loss of Brodie Croyle. Marc Guillion was at Miami (FL) and had a great offseason and preseason camp from everything I read.
Arkansas is really overrated form their strong performance in a loss at home vs. Texas.
Bama is 5-1 ATS their L6 when in a revenge role from a home loss.
The dog is 5-2 ATS the L7 in this series.
Meanwhile, the Hogs are only 1-8 ATS as HF's off a DD SU win (over UL Monroe LW) vs. an opp off a SU win (Bama over W. Carolina).
Bama has the better running game and defense.
Louisiana Tech (+24)
Pretty much a situational play here. Tennessee comes off a huge emotional last-second win over Florida and has Auburn next week.
Tennessee has only covered 3 of their L10 Homecoming games.
Meanwhile, La Tech is 7-1-1 ATS as a dog off a SU loss vs. an opponent off a win.
La. Tech can run the ball effectively with Ryan Moats behind a big OL to at least move the ball and stay close with the Vols.
Will add a couple more fairly soon, but I am trying to keep my card a little smaller this weekend.
GL
HD
