Hoosier Daddy's 10/9 Lovable Losers (44-31-1 Ytd)

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I will post a few now and add throughout the day.

Michigan (-3')
Same thing as last year. Minnesota is a good club and runs the ball well, but they haven't played anyone. Michigan is ranked #1 against the run (47 ypg) and #1 in forcing turnovers (19).

Michigan is 8-3 ATS L11 in the series. They are also 8-1 ATS home vs. opponent off BB SU wins.

Mich has gone 7-2-1 ATS L 10 as Home Favs.

The Wolverines are also 4-1 ATS vs. opponent w/revenge. I believe this revenge factor is being overplayed with Minnesota here.

Minnesota is only 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS as a Road Dog since 2000 and the Gophers are 0-7 ATS the L7 w/ conference revenge.

Michigan State (-7)
The Illini are 0-7 ATS off BB SU losses and 0-7 ATS off DD SU loss.
Illinois is only 2-8 ATS the L10 in this series (0-4 SU ATS L4 in East Lansing).

MSU is undervalued and has performed better with Stanton at QB even in the loss at Iowa (449 yds total offense). Illinois is considering changing QB's (mistake) and is without their top player on offense WR Adeyemo.

Leaning with Texas (+7'), but still waiting. I may lay off though.

Ohio U (+9)
Ohio U is 5-1 ATS the L6 in the series.
OU is 5-0 ATS home w/revenge and 5-1 ATS home vs. opponent off SU win.

Marshall is only 6-19 ATS in MAC road games. Marshall is moving to Conference USA so they will continue to get every MAC foe's best shot.

I wish Ohio would have lost to UK LW for some more line value and they also should have beaten Pitt, but caught some bad breaks.

Mississippi (+17)
Purely a contrarian play here. I had the Gamecocks LW and their win at Bama wasn't nearly as decisive as the final score indicated.

This line is high b/c Ole Miss is 0-5 ATS, but uusually that is when you get on a team b/c the oddsmakers are overstating the line.

Ole Miss is 8-2 ATS their L10 as a DD SEC dog.

Kent State (+20)
Kent is 10-3-1 ATS as a Road Dog with Cribbs at QB.

In this series the Dog is 4-1 ATS.
Kent is also 7-0 ATS away w/rev.
Kent is 6-0 ATS w/revenge vs. MAC and 6-1 ATS their L7 as DD dog.

Kent is a little better than their record. I think this is a big # for Miami to lay.

Notre Dame (-4')
Lots being made over Stanford being blown out LY by the Irish by 50.

Stanford is overvalued b/c of their near-win over USC.

I think the Irish get back on track here.

Stanford is only 3-7-1 ATS as a Road Dog under Teevens.

This is my card up to 3:30 EST.

GL

HD
 

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3:30 PM EST Plays:

Ball State (-7)
BSU is 4-1 ATS L5 in series. BSU is 4-0 ATS home vs. opponent w/revenge.

EMU is 3-9 ATS L12 as a Road Dog and Ball State has covered their L3 as a Home Fav.

Ball State has consistently been better at home than on the road. They are only allowing 319 ypg at home and 571 ypg on the road.

Maryland (-12')
The Terps are 7-1 ATS DD fav after they score 35 > pts. The Fridge is 15-4 ATS as a home fav and 18-7 ATS vs. ACC teams.

Maryland has a much better offense and Statham is seemingly getting a better grasp of it.

Ball has been terrible at throwing the ball for GT and if you watched any of LW's game against Miami, his WR's aren't much better. GT was sky high for Miami and still got dominated. Maryland rolls here.

Tennessee (+13)
Oddsmaker overreaction here. Tennessee got killed at home by Auburn and Georgia routed LSU.

The trends favor the Dawgs, but I think this line is a little high and an overreaction to 2 National TV games.

Washington (-17)
OK. We know Washington totally stinks and this line is high, but the oddsmakers are daring you take San Jose State off their 70 point offensive production. UW is desperate here. San Jose State is 0-6-1 ATS their L7 as a Road Dog. Let's not forget this San Jose team got drubbed by SMU.

California (+7)
Cal is 5-1 ATS L6 in the series and the road team is 6-1 ATS L7 away in the series.
Cal is 5-0 ATS as dog in second of BB away. TEDFORD is 10-2-1 ATS overall as a dog.

I didn't realize how good Cal was until LW.

USC getting a lot of respect here, but I don't think they are the best team in the nation here.

4:30 PM EST:
Penn State (+11)
Purdue off a huge win (closer than final indicated) at Notre Dame. Now they are laying DD on the road in conference? I'll take the generous points even with a bad PSU team.
Purdue is 1-9 away off away and 1-7 away vs. < .500 opponent.
PSU is 10-4 ATS home off DD SU loss.

More for the night card.

HD
 

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Night Plays:

LSU (+3')
Public all over Florida here and LSU is probably out of the BCS unless Auburn goes in the tank. Saban is 6-4-1 ATS as a Road Dog and Zook is 5-9 ATS as Home Chalk and 2-11 ATS overall as an SEC Fav.

The visitor is 17-6-1 ATS in this series.

Syracuse (+19')
The Orange is 17-2 ATS home off home and 13-2-2 ATS home vs. non con opponent.
Cuse is 19-7 ATS as a Home Dog since 1983.
FSU is only 2-8 ATS L10 as fav 14 > pts vs. non con opponent.

Wyatt Sexton is making his first road start in a dome no less. They will probably have a good, noisy crowd tonight for a night game against a top-tier team.

Texas Tech (-6')
The Red Raiders are 18-4 ATS at home off SU loss and are 14-5-1 ATS as a Home Fav under Leach.

Nebraska has played mediocre offenses all year and now have to face one of the nation's best on the road in a night game.

NU is 0-5 ATS off BB SU wins vs. con opponents.

GL

HD
 

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Add for 3:30 PM EST:

Colorado (+7)
OSU is only 5-13-1 ATS in B12 road games.

The Buffs are 6-2 ATS as a Home Dog under Barnett.


HD
 

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Can't believe this Ball State bunch..down 14-3 to pathetic Eastern at home..lets hope for a better 2nd half:neenee:
 

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14-10 @ Half. They better get something going. This EMU team couldn't even beat Idaho at home for godsakes.
 

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Should have stuck with my original card. That went 10-4-1. My late adds were 1-3 for an 11-7-1 day.

Record is now 55-38-2 YTD.

HD
 

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