Lost with New Mexico tonight. 1-1 start to the week.
will post the rest of the card tomorrow morning.
Virginia Tech (-2')
The Hokies come off a tough loss at home LW in a game they probably should have won. They qualify for the unranked system play this week. They are also in a revenge role here where they are 15-4 ATS at home w/ revenge.
VT is 13-0-1 ATS in a home game when they lost SU the previous game.
The fav is 7-3 ATS in this series.
VT is 22-8 ATS at home vs. non-conference teams.
LW Bryan Randall was sacked 10 times by NC State. I expect Beamer and the coaching staff will correct that problem here. Plus, West Virginia only has 4 sacks in 4 games this year.
On defense, the Hokies are always solid against the run and the Mounties run the ball 70% of the time. They are going to force Rasheed Marshall to beat them throwing the ball.
Florida (-7)
OK, we know that Zook is pathetic as a home fav. However, I think the public and the oddsmakers are overcompensating for that trend.
Arkansas has played better than many, including me, would have thought. They are still playing with 18 new starters in their first road game. They have a rebuilt OL that gave up 3 sacks LW and the Gators will pressure Jones into making mistakes.
The Gators found a running game with Ciatrick Fason LW, who had over 200 yards. This will take pressure off of Leak, who played superbly at Tennessee.
I will go contrarian here and take the Gators.
Iowa (-7)
The Hawkeyes come off 2 losses on the road and finally come back home.
Iowa is 6-0 ATS as a fav off BB SU losses.
Iowa is 14-5-1 ATS in B10 home games under Ferentz.
Iowa is 19-4-1 ATS in their last 24 home games
MSU comes off a double-digit comeback road win at Indiana. However, IU's offense was terrible in the 2nd half. All MSU did was run QB option plays and won the game. Iowa was more speed on defense and will snuff that out. They are still good at stopping the run (2.4 ypp). Iowa doesn't have the best pass defense, but Stanton really didn't have to throw all that much against IU and got some yards against ND's 2nd and 3rd-stringers.
Oklahoma State (-17)
The Cyclones allowed Northern Illinois to move the ball at will on them and I think the Cowpokes will do the same here on the ground and through the air.
On the ground OSU's OL outweighs ISU's DL by an avg of 30 lbs per man.
Iowa State is 5-24 ATS as a road underdog of more than 7 points under McCarney.
Meanwhile, Okie State is 5-1 ATS w/ rest off a cover of 10 points or better.
They are also 8-2 ATS L10 as a DD fav and 8-3 ATS at home off BB SU wins.
Plus, ISU is unsettled at QB between Bret Meyer and Austin Flynn and OSU is +10 in Turnover Margin this year. ISU truned the ball over several times vs. Northern Illinois and were lucky to win.
ISU has also had problems in the kicking game this year.
Notre Dame (+3)
The public is all getting off ND's bandwagon, well not me.
I like Purdue's squad this year, but their defense was exposed LW by Illinois and a mediocre Illini squad easily moved the ball on Purdue all day long.
Purdue is only 3-11-1 ATS as a Road Dog and are only 1-9 ATS in their 2nd straight road game.
Purdue has yet to play a defense like Notre Dame.
Brady Quinn is gaining confidence in the offense now and he looked very good the L3 games and is getting better.
I see a close one here but I'll take the points and the Irish at home due to Purdue's poor past road record.
Louisiana-Monroe (+14')
Wyoming comes off a huge win over an SEC opponent and now have to get up for a small Sun Belt opp.
Wyoming shouldn't be laying this # to anyone. They are 1-7 ATS as a DD HF since 1997.
ULM covered at Auburn and at Arkansas this year. Steven Jyles is an athletic QB who can make plays and I think Wyoming lets down here a little bit.
Oregon State (+7)
Cal has not played since Sept 11th due to Hurricane Ivan postponing the So. Miss game. The public is all over Cal here and I will fade them here. Cal has USC on deck next week and face a Beavers team desperate for a win.
OSU is 6-3 ATS as a Home Dog under Riley.
OSU also has a pretty good defense despite their performance vs. Boise.
Reser Stadium is a tough place to play and I think Cal may be caught looking ahead here.
Washington (+13')
Another go against the public play here. Stanford almost beat USC LW so everyone thinks they are good. I don't see it here.
The trends favor Stanford, but the line value is with the Huskies here.
San Diego State (+6')
The Aztecs are 7-4-1 ATS as a Road Dog under Craft, while the Bruins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a Home Fav under Dorrell.
UCLA always seems to play down to their competition at home. SDSU has a pretty good defense this year and I think they keep it close.
Oregon (-2)
Another unranked system play here. The Ducks have been smacked around the L2Y by ASU. However, they are 8-1 ATS home off a home game w/ revenge. They are also 17-3 ATS in Pac 10 openers.
Meanwhile, ASU is 5-12 ATS as a dog under Koetter (3-10 as an Away Dog).
The Ducks are 18-6 ATS in home games when not favored by more than 6 points.
ASU is very thin at RB. Their #1 guy (Wade) is suspended and their backup (Hill) is starting with a broken forearm.
I think Oregon is looking for their breakout game and it comes here.
I will have a few more tomorrow.
GL
HD
will post the rest of the card tomorrow morning.
Virginia Tech (-2')
The Hokies come off a tough loss at home LW in a game they probably should have won. They qualify for the unranked system play this week. They are also in a revenge role here where they are 15-4 ATS at home w/ revenge.
VT is 13-0-1 ATS in a home game when they lost SU the previous game.
The fav is 7-3 ATS in this series.
VT is 22-8 ATS at home vs. non-conference teams.
LW Bryan Randall was sacked 10 times by NC State. I expect Beamer and the coaching staff will correct that problem here. Plus, West Virginia only has 4 sacks in 4 games this year.
On defense, the Hokies are always solid against the run and the Mounties run the ball 70% of the time. They are going to force Rasheed Marshall to beat them throwing the ball.
Florida (-7)
OK, we know that Zook is pathetic as a home fav. However, I think the public and the oddsmakers are overcompensating for that trend.
Arkansas has played better than many, including me, would have thought. They are still playing with 18 new starters in their first road game. They have a rebuilt OL that gave up 3 sacks LW and the Gators will pressure Jones into making mistakes.
The Gators found a running game with Ciatrick Fason LW, who had over 200 yards. This will take pressure off of Leak, who played superbly at Tennessee.
I will go contrarian here and take the Gators.
Iowa (-7)
The Hawkeyes come off 2 losses on the road and finally come back home.
Iowa is 6-0 ATS as a fav off BB SU losses.
Iowa is 14-5-1 ATS in B10 home games under Ferentz.
Iowa is 19-4-1 ATS in their last 24 home games
MSU comes off a double-digit comeback road win at Indiana. However, IU's offense was terrible in the 2nd half. All MSU did was run QB option plays and won the game. Iowa was more speed on defense and will snuff that out. They are still good at stopping the run (2.4 ypp). Iowa doesn't have the best pass defense, but Stanton really didn't have to throw all that much against IU and got some yards against ND's 2nd and 3rd-stringers.
Oklahoma State (-17)
The Cyclones allowed Northern Illinois to move the ball at will on them and I think the Cowpokes will do the same here on the ground and through the air.
On the ground OSU's OL outweighs ISU's DL by an avg of 30 lbs per man.
Iowa State is 5-24 ATS as a road underdog of more than 7 points under McCarney.
Meanwhile, Okie State is 5-1 ATS w/ rest off a cover of 10 points or better.
They are also 8-2 ATS L10 as a DD fav and 8-3 ATS at home off BB SU wins.
Plus, ISU is unsettled at QB between Bret Meyer and Austin Flynn and OSU is +10 in Turnover Margin this year. ISU truned the ball over several times vs. Northern Illinois and were lucky to win.
ISU has also had problems in the kicking game this year.
Notre Dame (+3)
The public is all getting off ND's bandwagon, well not me.
I like Purdue's squad this year, but their defense was exposed LW by Illinois and a mediocre Illini squad easily moved the ball on Purdue all day long.
Purdue is only 3-11-1 ATS as a Road Dog and are only 1-9 ATS in their 2nd straight road game.
Purdue has yet to play a defense like Notre Dame.
Brady Quinn is gaining confidence in the offense now and he looked very good the L3 games and is getting better.
I see a close one here but I'll take the points and the Irish at home due to Purdue's poor past road record.
Louisiana-Monroe (+14')
Wyoming comes off a huge win over an SEC opponent and now have to get up for a small Sun Belt opp.
Wyoming shouldn't be laying this # to anyone. They are 1-7 ATS as a DD HF since 1997.
ULM covered at Auburn and at Arkansas this year. Steven Jyles is an athletic QB who can make plays and I think Wyoming lets down here a little bit.
Oregon State (+7)
Cal has not played since Sept 11th due to Hurricane Ivan postponing the So. Miss game. The public is all over Cal here and I will fade them here. Cal has USC on deck next week and face a Beavers team desperate for a win.
OSU is 6-3 ATS as a Home Dog under Riley.
OSU also has a pretty good defense despite their performance vs. Boise.
Reser Stadium is a tough place to play and I think Cal may be caught looking ahead here.
Washington (+13')
Another go against the public play here. Stanford almost beat USC LW so everyone thinks they are good. I don't see it here.
The trends favor Stanford, but the line value is with the Huskies here.
San Diego State (+6')
The Aztecs are 7-4-1 ATS as a Road Dog under Craft, while the Bruins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a Home Fav under Dorrell.
UCLA always seems to play down to their competition at home. SDSU has a pretty good defense this year and I think they keep it close.
Oregon (-2)
Another unranked system play here. The Ducks have been smacked around the L2Y by ASU. However, they are 8-1 ATS home off a home game w/ revenge. They are also 17-3 ATS in Pac 10 openers.
Meanwhile, ASU is 5-12 ATS as a dog under Koetter (3-10 as an Away Dog).
The Ducks are 18-6 ATS in home games when not favored by more than 6 points.
ASU is very thin at RB. Their #1 guy (Wade) is suspended and their backup (Hill) is starting with a broken forearm.
I think Oregon is looking for their breakout game and it comes here.
I will have a few more tomorrow.
GL
HD
