1-2 so far this week.
Some early plays and I'll add throughout the day.
Kansas State (+20')
K-State has a pretty good offense when Dylan Meier is in the lineup at QB and he will start here. K-State comes off a tough loss at Kansas while OU beat Texas yet again. I think this line is a little inflated b/c of the buttkicking K-State laid on OU LY in the Big 12 Title Game.
K-State is 10-3 ATS the L13 vs. OU and a respectable 9-5 ATS as Home Dog under Snyder.
The Wildcats have yet to cover a spread this year and this week they play the #2 team (#1 IMO) in the country. I have to go contrarian here.
Illinois (+19)
A few too many points here. Granted, Chad Henne looks sharp and Michael Hart will be a star someday, but they are still true freshmen on the road.
The Illini had a players-only meeting LW and I think they will be fired up early. The Illini have a pretty good offense and found a running game LW with Pierre Thomas in the 2nd half against Michigan State. They also hung with Purdue getting almost the same amount of points earlier this year.
I know all the trends are against the Illini, but Michigan may be looking ahead to next week's game against a possibly-undefeated Purdue team.
Clemson (-22')
The Tigers are desperate here (1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS). They have probably played the toughest schedule in the country and only a 2OT win over Wake is keeping them from being 0-5. They haven't recovered from that giveaway against Georgia Tech. However, this is Homecoming and they have the next 3 games at home and could still go 5-1 and get in a bowl. Plus, they got hot in the 2nd half of last year and Bowden seems to coach best when his butt is under fire.
Clemson is not that bad of a team and I think they can name the score in this one. This line would have been 30+ if Clemson was 2-3 or 3-2.
Nebraska (-23)
I know, another big fav here, but this line would be almost 30 if Nebraska wasn't crushed LW.
However, Baylor has given 15 turnovers away in 5 games and rank 114th in the country in Turnover Margin. I think the "Blackshirts" will step it up after being torched LW by Texas Tech. Plus, 4 of those TD's where in very short fields.
Joe Dailey was pissed at being pulled LW and will want to put up some big #'s.
Baylor is 1-10 ATS as a Road Dog vs. opp off SU loss and 7-14 ATS L21 as Road Dogs.
New Mexico (+3)
The Lobos are in big revenge mode after giving away 6 TO''s LY in a 37-35 home loss to the Rebels in a game they dominated. The Lobos are 8-1 ATS L9 conference revenge games.
UNLV does not have that good of an offense and the Lobos still have a decent defense.
New Mexico definitely cannot throw the ball so they will run and even BYU was able to run on this team LW.
Afternoon and evening slates will come tomorrow.
GL
HD
Navy (+6')
You know Navy will be up for this after a bye week (3-0 ATS LY and 18-9 ATS in that role since 1994) and they are 4-1 ATS L5 vs. the Irish.
The Middies are 8-1 ATS as dog off SU win vs. opp off SU win and 7-1 ATS w/revenge.
Paul Johnson is 18-8 ATS (10-4 ATS as Underdog) since taking over in Annapolis.
The Irish are not easy to run against, but this is not a conventional running attack and Polanco has the ability to roll out and make plays.
Minnesota/Michigan State Over 52
After watching Pierre Thomas single-handedly get Illinois back in the game LW by running the ball, I am convinced that Minny can run all day long here and hang at least 30 on the board. Meanwhile, the MSU offense seems to be hitting its stride with Drew Stanton at QB.
Some early plays and I'll add throughout the day.
Kansas State (+20')
K-State has a pretty good offense when Dylan Meier is in the lineup at QB and he will start here. K-State comes off a tough loss at Kansas while OU beat Texas yet again. I think this line is a little inflated b/c of the buttkicking K-State laid on OU LY in the Big 12 Title Game.
K-State is 10-3 ATS the L13 vs. OU and a respectable 9-5 ATS as Home Dog under Snyder.
The Wildcats have yet to cover a spread this year and this week they play the #2 team (#1 IMO) in the country. I have to go contrarian here.
Illinois (+19)
A few too many points here. Granted, Chad Henne looks sharp and Michael Hart will be a star someday, but they are still true freshmen on the road.
The Illini had a players-only meeting LW and I think they will be fired up early. The Illini have a pretty good offense and found a running game LW with Pierre Thomas in the 2nd half against Michigan State. They also hung with Purdue getting almost the same amount of points earlier this year.
I know all the trends are against the Illini, but Michigan may be looking ahead to next week's game against a possibly-undefeated Purdue team.
Clemson (-22')
The Tigers are desperate here (1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS). They have probably played the toughest schedule in the country and only a 2OT win over Wake is keeping them from being 0-5. They haven't recovered from that giveaway against Georgia Tech. However, this is Homecoming and they have the next 3 games at home and could still go 5-1 and get in a bowl. Plus, they got hot in the 2nd half of last year and Bowden seems to coach best when his butt is under fire.
Clemson is not that bad of a team and I think they can name the score in this one. This line would have been 30+ if Clemson was 2-3 or 3-2.
Nebraska (-23)
I know, another big fav here, but this line would be almost 30 if Nebraska wasn't crushed LW.
However, Baylor has given 15 turnovers away in 5 games and rank 114th in the country in Turnover Margin. I think the "Blackshirts" will step it up after being torched LW by Texas Tech. Plus, 4 of those TD's where in very short fields.
Joe Dailey was pissed at being pulled LW and will want to put up some big #'s.
Baylor is 1-10 ATS as a Road Dog vs. opp off SU loss and 7-14 ATS L21 as Road Dogs.
New Mexico (+3)
The Lobos are in big revenge mode after giving away 6 TO''s LY in a 37-35 home loss to the Rebels in a game they dominated. The Lobos are 8-1 ATS L9 conference revenge games.
UNLV does not have that good of an offense and the Lobos still have a decent defense.
New Mexico definitely cannot throw the ball so they will run and even BYU was able to run on this team LW.
Afternoon and evening slates will come tomorrow.
GL
HD
Navy (+6')
You know Navy will be up for this after a bye week (3-0 ATS LY and 18-9 ATS in that role since 1994) and they are 4-1 ATS L5 vs. the Irish.
The Middies are 8-1 ATS as dog off SU win vs. opp off SU win and 7-1 ATS w/revenge.
Paul Johnson is 18-8 ATS (10-4 ATS as Underdog) since taking over in Annapolis.
The Irish are not easy to run against, but this is not a conventional running attack and Polanco has the ability to roll out and make plays.
Minnesota/Michigan State Over 52
After watching Pierre Thomas single-handedly get Illinois back in the game LW by running the ball, I am convinced that Minny can run all day long here and hang at least 30 on the board. Meanwhile, the MSU offense seems to be hitting its stride with Drew Stanton at QB.
