Homerun Derby

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Robinson Cano or Jose Bautista vs Any Other Player

Odds

  • Jose Bautista +320
  • Prince Fielder +450
  • Robinson Cano +450
  • Mark Trumbo +500
  • Matt Kemp +600
  • Carlos Beltran +650
  • Carlos Gonzalez +700
  • Andrew McCutchen +900

Stadium Background: As you probably already know, the All-Star events are taking place in Kansas City this season in Kauffan Stadium. So far this season Kauffman Stadium has been a relatively neutral field which means it did not give a major edge to the pitcher or the batter. There have been 64 homeruns so far this season in Kauffman Stadium, that is 1.73 HRs per game.


As you can see by the numbers, none of these guys are heavy favorites to win, however Bautista is the "favorite," if you can even call a guy at +320 a true favorite. Right behind him we have the defending champion, Robinson Cano. Then after him you have the rest of the field led by Prince Fielder, who has won this event in the past. The real question here is does the field really have two legitmate players who have a chance at winning. I ask this because I think when you look at the Bautista and Cano, most of us will all say that they are the favorites. Why? Well because Bautista is one of the best, if not the best homerun hitting in the game right now and Cano is the defending champion. Now I will say that not too often do you see guys repeat in consecutive years. Now that does not mean Prince Fielder cannot win again. With that we now go and look at the field. There you have Prince Fielder who would most likely be the next guy in line to win. Not just because the odds say so, but because he has the experience and the hardware to go along with it. The tough thing is really finding that second guy. Although Kemp got off to a very hard start, you never know how he is going to play after not playing a real baseball game in months. Also, I am not a big fan of McCutchen is the home run derby. In my mind he is a competetive player and a good baseball player but I do not think the long ball is a big part of his game. That leaves us with Beltran, Trumbo, and Gonzalez. To be honest I think this is the group of guys where we will see the champion come. Trumbo has great power and has gotten off to a great start to the season. The same can be said for both Beltran and Gonazlez. Although I think Beltran is a bit of a long shot, I could see him coming through.

My Pick: Any Other Result

Confidence: 3.5/5

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