Homedawg's Wednesday Plays 136-119 (53.33%) +4.7

[homedawg]

Tuesday: 2-2. -4.80 and an absolutely brutal push on No Illinois
Overall: 136-119 (53.33%) +4.70

Pretty embarrassing record, and even more frustrating past few days. Just seem to be on the short end of the stick time and time again and the frustrating is really starting to mount. At least I can put the mind towards Wednesdays games and try to forget about the past few days. Really need a big day. Seems to be all or nothing lately, and had been on a nice role until the past few days. I like a few tomorrow that I want to get out there.

3 Units

Wake Forest -3 -110

Don't get much more square then this. I am going against all my beliefs ( home dogs in conference, let down , etc), but I just think BC has to play out of their minds and Wake has to play very poor to get beat here. Possibly BC is still getting some love because of their victory over UNC, but they just don't have the bodies, size, or quickness to hang with Wake for 40 mins. Wake will have a huge advantage in the paint, and Teague should be able to hold down Rice. BC's win over UNC should help focus Wake a little more than they may have before. I am not very high on BC at all. Other than Rice they have a few nice players in Sanders and Raji, but even they don't match up to the pure athletes Wake has assembled. Wake is obviously has it rolling pretty nicely right now, and it's going to take a huge effort to knock them off. I don't think they will get it from BC




Will also be playing Georgia Tech, and Michigan, but I think I can get better numbers if I hold off. Also going to take a closer look at Arkansas, and Auburn and see where their numbers go.

Will also do a nice write up on the Syracuse-Georgetown match up even though i will not have anything on the game. Should be a nice match up in D.C. and if I were a betting man I would be very happy to take the points

 

[jbragg10]

I am all over Wake!
No way they hang with them.

good luck!

 

[hubbard316]

I got them at -3.5. Lets go Wake!!

 

[Dolphins950]

What you think about Richmond at Va Tech +8? I have been riding Richmond all year and they are a very good team. I see this game being a 5 point game at best. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

 

[jimmyshivers]

like the wake play ..agree with ^, richmond is a good play as well

 

[Drunkn247]

anyone worried that BC kicked the shit out of Wake last year and it was almost the same 2 teams..I know Aminu is a huge impact but Rice owned Teague he dropped 32 and held Teague to 10 BC won 112-73 they also hit 13 3's which is unlikely to happen again...Just some food for thought

 

[Drunkn247]

Hey how do you feel about Utep tomorrow I think they get the W and cover the short number

 

[jbragg10]

anyone worried that BC kicked the shit out of Wake last year and it was almost the same 2 teams..I know Aminu is a huge impact but Rice owned Teague he dropped 32 and held Teague to 10 BC won 112-73 they also hit 13 3's which is unlikely to happen again...Just some food for thought

2 different teams headed in different directions at this point.
The difference, Wake is young but they have improved a lot from last year.
Boston College is still the same Boston College.

I think the line is set because people are thinking it will be a let down game after the NC game (like Boston College had).
The difference is Wake is good and Boston College is average

 

[absolute59]

Any lean on ISU at home -1. Hilton is usually a very tough place to play and Nebraska has alway had a tough time winning there.

 

[papicker]

gl i like bc though, wake not only is coming off the win vs unc but also has to go to clemson saturday im willing to wait though im sure ill have a better line by tipoff, so you got a team thats right between there 2 biggest regular season games of the season vs a team that is no doubt gonna be hot after a home loss to harvard and a tough loss to miami, throw in that wake is a young unexperienced team with a very young coach i dont see why everyones so in love with them tonight

 

[Waz]

HD - I am really surprised you are going against your strategy and are betting on Wake. There has to be some kind of let down from the UNC win, whether it only be worth a point or two. Also, not only do they have to win on the road in the ACC, but they have to win by at least 4 points. Now BC is not a great team, but they can hold their own at home. They clearly looked past Harvard on their home court, but that was a situational sandwich game. I think this one will be tight, so I would hedge at half time if Wake is up.

This being said, I am 100% behind you, and I love your breakdown of the games. Please don't change a thing, as many of us enjoy the analysis. You know your stuff and work really hard at it.

 

[indiana]

HD...........

thank you for the plays..g/l today

indy

 

[TheGuarantee]

Good luck tonight, I too have fell for Wake. Square or not looks like the right side to me.

 

[homedawg]

3 Units

Arkansas +2.5 -110
Georgia Tech +11.5 -110

2 Units

Michigan +7.5 -110

Also going to play Auburn, but think i can get better than the current +3

 

[homedawg]

Arkansas +2.5

I think this is a good matchup for Arkansas. They suffered the inevitable let down last time out against Miss St. Coming off a big win over Texas they obviously didn't play with the same fire, and focus against Miss St. Tonight I think will be a different story. Already in the hole 0-1 in conference, with a date at Florida on the horizon, Arkansas can't afford to fall here and be staring a potential 0-3 sec start in the face. With that on deck I expect a much concentrated effort. Last game against Miss St Fortson struggled running the team. He has had an unbelievable freshman season, but as a young kid a let down could have been expected. Their is still no denying his talent, and how important he is to this team. With Mississippi's loss of guard Chris Warren for the season i just don't see the Rebels matching Arkansas in the back court. Huertas is a good player, but he is the only player averaging more than 8.2ppg. Losing Warren, a 19.6ppg scorer, was pretty much the death blow to Miss season. They are 2-2 since his injury losing by 20 to So Miss, and by 10 to Florida. They also struggled to get by Nichols St at home. Now tonight they have to face a supremely talented Arkansas squad. To go along with Fortson, Michael Washinton is a beast in the paint. I think this is where the game will be won tonight. The 6'9 240lb Washington will have nobody to match him in the paint and could have a field day. Washington is averaging 17.8ppg and 10.6rpg. The 2nd number may be the most important. While Arkansas leads the conference in rebounding, Ole Miss is 2nd to last. Washinton should control the glass, in turn controlling the game. Arkansas also has other scorers who complement Washington and Fortson. Stefan Welsh averages 13.6 from the guard position, and Rotnei Clark averages 12.3ppg, and is a legitiment 3 point threat. Arkansas has showed they are capable of beating anyone in the country with wins over Texas, and Oklahoma. Sure they won those at home, but with the loss of Waren, ole miss is reeling. They don't have the talent to match Arkansas, and will get handled in the paint. Huertas isn't going to be enough to compete with one of the best young point guards in the country. Arkansas should roll in this one

 

[Drunkn247]

Homedawg,
I know your a huge cuse fan so let me run my little theory by you. I'm thinking that if they can win tonight at Gtown and then play ND on Saturday at home the line will hit anywhere from 6-8 and the Irish can possibly steal one. If I remember off the top of my head the Irish always play Cuse tough and they struggle with those teams that can knock down shots. So i'm hoping Cuse wins today and then the Irish beat them on Saturday. What are your thoughts? I know you have to write up all those games for today so if you can answer later on it would be appreciated.

 

[homedawg]

What you think about Richmond at Va Tech +8? I have been riding Richmond all year and they are a very good team. I see this game being a 5 point game at best. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

i saw richmond play in person and wasn't overly impressed by their talent. i am actually surprised they have been doing as well as they have been. gonzalez is a decent player, but i really didn't see much talented after him. i think Vt will beat them up inside and will have a very good chance at covering the 8

GL

 

[homedawg]

Hey how do you feel about Utep tomorrow I think they get the W and cover the short number

utep has been the ultimate thorn in my side all year. they rely too much on the 3 ball, and have some of the worst shot selection i have ever seen. i think i am done backing them unless they are a good sized home dog. it is just too hit or miss because of their willingness to jack up the 3

 

[homedawg]

Any lean on ISU at home -1. Hilton is usually a very tough place to play and Nebraska has alway had a tough time winning there.

i really don't like either team. this should be an ugly game. iowa st really doesn't protect their home court as well as most major programs. nebraska however is always brutal on the road. just too close to call for me

 

[homedawg]

HD - I am really surprised you are going against your strategy and are betting on Wake. There has to be some kind of let down from the UNC win, whether it only be worth a point or two. Also, not only do they have to win on the road in the ACC, but they have to win by at least 4 points. Now BC is not a great team, but they can hold their own at home. They clearly looked past Harvard on their home court, but that was a situational sandwich game. I think this one will be tight, so I would hedge at half time if Wake is up.

This being said, I am 100% behind you, and I love your breakdown of the games. Please don't change a thing, as many of us enjoy the analysis. You know your stuff and work really hard at it.

ya everytime i do this i lose so BC is probably the side. the way i see it is wake has to play absolutely terrible and bc has to play one of their best games. the reason i am not afraid here is because of wake's ability to beat them up inside. they just have too many weapons who can score. for all of them to have an off night against a team who really lacks a lot of talent will be very tough. rice will have to deal with some of the quickest guards in the country. i actually think they will put LD Willimas on Rice. LD is their best defender and will let teague focus on running the offense. also their is no answer for johnson, aminu, and chas down low. i think they will collect enough offensive rebounds to win