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Dynasty
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Going to hold off on both games as i think I can get a better line if i wait closer to game time. These are 2 games that I feel strongly about as I follow the big east very closely. I would play both games at the numbers available, but as I said I think I can get a better number most certainly in the Villanova game.


4 Units

West Virg +???

I am actually very surprised West Va was made a dog in this game. I don't think they should be and I don't think it will matter. I think West Va will win this one by 5+. West Va is your typical Big East team. They are rugged, aren't afraid to play and win ugly, play intense defense, and rebound. All those factors work against Davidson who is more of a finesse team. Of their 2 big challenges this season they got beat by Oklahoma, and struggled with NC ST before finally taking them down. Also if you recall last season they didn't beat any of these upper echelon teams before the NCAA tournament. However the big difference from last season is they don't have Jason Richards. I have been saying this all that Davidson won't be a serious threat this year because they don't have Richards. Without Richards running the point it forces Curry to handle the ball. Curry IS NOT a point guard. He is a cold hearted assassin who is a 2 guard. They can get by with Curry running point against lesser teams, but when they run into the big boys, like West Va, Curry running the pg is not a good thing. If Davidson is going to win against these stronger teams they need Curry to take an abundance of shots. He can't do that if he is running the point because it takes his teammates out of the game. If Curry is jacking it up every other time down the court his teammates tend to feel left out, and don't feel part of the game. As it is there are really no true scorers other than Curry. In their big games this year (OU, NCST) nobody other than Curry has scored in double figures other than Lovedale. Lovedale averages 14 a game, but is not a true scorer. He gets a lot of garbage buckets. He is not somebody you can give the ball and tell him to go score. Same can be said of Barr. He is an excellent shooter, but not a scorer. WIth Curry being the only legit scoring threat they will run into strong defensive teams such as West Va. Joe Mazzulla is a bulldog who's sole purpose of the game will be too shut down Curry. He didn't play last game b/c of a bruised shoulder, but I feel that was more of a precaution, as they said "he was held out". That leads me to believe he rested up last game just so he will be ready to go against Curry. Mazzulla is just what Huggins loves. He is a hard nosed, physical, defender. He runs the point and gets his teammates involved. He has faced the best the big east has to offer so he will not back down against Curry by no means. He has also been splitting times at the point with freshman Truck Bryant. Bryant is a little bit more of a scorer averaging just shy of 10ppg. But he is also a physical player who will take his shots at guarding Curry. With Mazzulla, and Bryant sharing time at the point you know you will have a fresh body on Curry at all times. They should be able to wear him down some. Besides those 2 overall West Virg has transformed into a strong team that plays defense and rebounds. Huggins came in and molded Belien's players from shooters who were lax on defense, and rebounding into just that. He has also added his type of players with a strong freshman class that includes Bryant and Devon Ebanks. Huggins believes in the weight room so those players that once played for Belien have not only had their philosophy changed, but also seen their bodies changed, as Huggins notorious weight lifting program has bulked up the entire team. Again imo a physical team that WVU now is will be an issue for a finesse Davidson team. Offensively WVU is a well balanced team with Da'Sean Butler 14.6, Alex Ruoff 14.3, and Truck Bryant 9.9 ppg. Butler and Rouff are experienced, proven scorers who have evolved into strong team leaders that Huggins can count on in these big games. They have seen their fair share of big games and will not shy down. Another key to the game may be the emergence of highly touted freshman Devin Ebanks. He has been quiet to start the season, but in his last game he scored 10 points, and more importantly grabbed 17 rebounds. He has the talent to dominate at this level in time. Coming off such a game like that should give him confidence coming into tonight's game. This just gives WVU another dimension, and another strong, physical player they can count on. WVU's only loss this year was against Kentucky. Those are the teams that WVU will struggle against. They don't have a legit big man, and teams that do, like Kentucky with Patterson will give the Mountaineers trouble. There is no such big man on Davidson so I expect no such struggles. Their athleticism should allow them to win the rebounding battle. They also should be able to out talent them. Take away Curry and I don't think there is a player on Davidson that will start on WVU. That bodes well since nobody will outwork a Bob Huggins team. The last factor will be the familiarity the WVU players have with MSG. They play there at least 2, if not 3 or 4 times a year (against St John's, and Big East Tournament). Veteran players like Ruoff, Butler, Mazzulla, Wellington, and so on have played more than a handful of games at the Garden so they won't be rattled by the surroundings that's for sure. Those are just a handful of factors that I feel make WVU a strong play. There are more things I looked at that pointed to a West Va win, but i just don't feel like typing anymore. The way I see it the better team should win tomorrow.
 

Dynasty
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I will play 2 units automatically on WVU if it reaches +2, and then hold off and watch the lines in hopes of a little bit more
 

Dynasty
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2 Units

Villanova +? -110

Another team I feel I have a good read on. Nova has the personnel to that matches up with Texas quite well. They are strong in the back court with possibly the best back court in a loaded Big East. Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes make up the quickest, most talented group of guards in the conference, and possibly the country. Their quickness should enable them to cover one of Texas strengths, 3 point shooting. In fact they hold opponents to 29% from behind the arc. They held a very good 3 point shooting team, Rhode Island, to 3-13 23% from beyond the arc, and most recently shut down Pen from deep. If they can close out strong on Abrams, and make him drive to the basket, it should give them one leg up. Where their ability to guard the perimeter will be a huge factor in determining the outcome of the game, the key may be their ability to rebound. So far Nova has shown the ability to rebound with a +10 advantage on the glass. Texas is +6, but against better competition. Nova has experience of playing physical ball in big east conference play so i think that should help them rebound against a texas team who doesn't have a dominant big man who can control the glass. in fact Antonio Pena, Dante Cunningham, and Shane Clark all have that built in tenacity that makes them a good rebounding team. Neither is bigger than 6'8, but that all have the heart to rebound. In fact if Cunningham, and Pena can keep up their current play Nova is going to be much better than I expected at the beginning of the year. Dante is averaging 17.3ppg, and Pena 9.3 ppg to go along with 8.0, and 5.6 rbg respectively. If Jay Wright can get that production from to go along with his elite back court Nova is a top 10 team.
Another key factor is the health of Shane Clark. Nova's glue guy Shane Clark amazingly was only out 11 days after knee surgery and will be ready to play Tuesday. He most likely will guard Damion James. Clark is Nova's defensive stopper who's sole purpose will be to smother James. He should be able to slow James down enough to give Nova an advantage.
Also just like Curry with Davidson, Abrams is a 2 guard at heart. Having him run the point will have the same negative factor as Curry. He needs to be able to get shots off to be effective, but in order to run the team efficiently he needs to get others involved. When your point guard feels he has to do to much is when teams get in trouble. As talented as Texas is I think this will be an issue in big games. Your point guard just can't be forced to shoot 18 times and expect them to win consistently. Luckily they escaped with a home win against a UCLA team, who I feel is really down this year. Abrams was forced to take 18 shots, while James took the next most with only 11. No other player took more than 7 shots. Not being able to get your teammates involved will have a negative influence in big games such as these. Nova has the personnel to key on Abrams and slow him down. If he is slowed down, and James is being shadowed by Clark, I just don't see where else Texas is going to get consistent scoring from? Nova's balance should cause problems for a Texas team that just has 2 legit scorers.
Teams that are going to give Nova problems are teams that have a strong inside presence....Texas isn't that. I see Nova's 3 strong guard neutralizing Abrams, and Clark slowing down James.
Another small element you have to factor in is this is going to be a pro Nova crowd. It's just a short train ride into the city from Philly. They will have a solid fan base at MSG.
One other stat to take note of, which could be huge in what should be a closely contested game is the huge discrepency in free throw shooting. Nova shoots an excellent 78%, while Texas struggles mightily at 60%. In games such as these you cant' afford to give away points. Free throws are important in many ways. They can stop big runs, and give you another way to score if your shots aren't falling. Nova also averages 5 more ft's a game. All 3 of Nova's guards are great off the dribble and have the ability to get to the rim and get fouled where they all shoot an at an excellent %. They are experienced enough to know that if their shots aren't falling to penetrate and get to the line. It could also show coming down the stretch with the ability to close out the lead if winning, or Texas ability to let Nova back into the game if they are down. Either way this is a huge difference where in an evenly matched game could prove the deciding factor.
I think this is a game where the names on the jersey have something to do with the current line so holding out a little bit and watching the line may steal an extra half point, or full point.
**note** will be an automatic play once this hits +3 for 2 units, will possibly add more if goes beyond +3
 

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Dawg just wanted to wish you a great week with all your action.go get em!!.(ck)
 

Dynasty
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please disregard my poor grammar, and spelling. i was typing fast, while watching the football game. i didn't go back and proof read so i can only imagine how badly it sounds.
 

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please disregard my poor grammar, and spelling. i was typing fast, while watching the football game. i didn't go back and proof read so i can only imagine how badly it sounds.

No biggie. I think you got your point accross to the masses here. :toast:

Everyone here APPRECIATES the time and effort you put in typing these long analysis like that! :aktion033
 

Dynasty
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No biggie. I think you got your point accross to the masses here. :toast:

Everyone here APPRECIATES the time and effort you put in typing these long analysis like that! :aktion033

thanks. i just want to show that each play is well thought out, researched, and dissected from all angles. i want to show just how hard you have to work to be successful at this (b/c i will be in positives when the year is done over about 500 plays). just want to show that I just don't look at the line and chose a side. the more views, and angles the many posters on this board share, the easier it is to play winners. it especially helps being able to see other peoples points of views from areas of the country, and teams they are familiar with. i'm a big east guy, and pretty boned up on the conference. i know Roxy is a MAC, and Horizon guy. Same with prodigy when he posts, he knows the MAC, and Horizon. Pool always had top notch SEMO, and Ohio Valley info, and even though Rail is bias sometimes to a fault he is good with the west coast. those are just a few examples of how this board is a great help.
 

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Nice writeups. Everyone appreciates your early plays. GL on Tuesday.
 

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I like taking dogs +2 or 3 on a neutral court it has been profitable early this year too....IE Okla over Purdue Mizzou over USC Zags over Tenn I cant think of the others but I like both your plays
 

Dynasty
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I like taking dogs +2 or 3 on a neutral court it has been profitable early this year too....IE Okla over Purdue Mizzou over USC Zags over Tenn I cant think of the others but I like both your plays

i believe with both plays we match up favorably
 

Rx. Junior
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thanks. i just want to show that each play is well thought out, researched, and dissected from all angles. i want to show just how hard you have to work to be successful at this (b/c i will be in positives when the year is done over about 500 plays). just want to show that I just don't look at the line and chose a side. the more views, and angles the many posters on this board share, the easier it is to play winners. it especially helps being able to see other peoples points of views from areas of the country, and teams they are familiar with. i'm a big east guy, and pretty boned up on the conference. i know Roxy is a MAC, and Horizon guy. Same with prodigy when he posts, he knows the MAC, and Horizon. Pool always had top notch SEMO, and Ohio Valley info, and even though Rail is bias sometimes to a fault he is good with the west coast. those are just a few examples of how this board is a great help.

This post is right on. I actually typed the same thing in your Monday thread. Again nice job tonight hope to square off against you in the finals of the JOH contest.
 

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Again, the writeups are great, really enjoy everyones perspective I can get. Just a quick question, do you think Texas height advantage will have an impact on the game vs. Nova or do you think a zone will take care of the height advantage. Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
 

Dynasty
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Again, the writeups are great, really enjoy everyones perspective I can get. Just a quick question, do you think Texas height advantage will have an impact on the game vs. Nova or do you think a zone will take care of the height advantage. Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

Nova is used to playing against bigger teams in the big east. nova has been using a 3 guard line up for years. they depend on their strong guard play to neutralize their lack of size. if they can bang with the big boys in the big east they won't shy away from texas, who lacks a dominant inside presence.
 

Dynasty
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Going to hold off on both games as i think I can get a better line if i wait closer to game time. These are 2 games that I feel strongly about as I follow the big east very closely. I would play both games at the numbers available, but as I said I think I can get a better number most certainly in the Villanova game.


4 Units

West Virg +???

I am actually very surprised West Va was made a dog in this game. I don't think they should be and I don't think it will matter. I think West Va will win this one by 5+. West Va is your typical Big East team. They are rugged, aren't afraid to play and win ugly, play intense defense, and rebound. All those factors work against Davidson who is more of a finesse team. Of their 2 big challenges this season they got beat by Oklahoma, and struggled with NC ST before finally taking them down. Also if you recall last season they didn't beat any of these upper echelon teams before the NCAA tournament. However the big difference from last season is they don't have Jason Richards. I have been saying this all that Davidson won't be a serious threat this year because they don't have Richards. Without Richards running the point it forces Curry to handle the ball. Curry IS NOT a point guard. He is a cold hearted assassin who is a 2 guard. They can get by with Curry running point against lesser teams, but when they run into the big boys, like West Va, Curry running the pg is not a good thing. If Davidson is going to win against these stronger teams they need Curry to take an abundance of shots. He can't do that if he is running the point because it takes his teammates out of the game. If Curry is jacking it up every other time down the court his teammates tend to feel left out, and don't feel part of the game. As it is there are really no true scorers other than Curry. In their big games this year (OU, NCST) nobody other than Curry has scored in double figures other than Lovedale. Lovedale averages 14 a game, but is not a true scorer. He gets a lot of garbage buckets. He is not somebody you can give the ball and tell him to go score. Same can be said of Barr. He is an excellent shooter, but not a scorer. WIth Curry being the only legit scoring threat they will run into strong defensive teams such as West Va. Joe Mazzulla is a bulldog who's sole purpose of the game will be too shut down Curry. He didn't play last game b/c of a bruised shoulder, but I feel that was more of a precaution, as they said "he was held out". That leads me to believe he rested up last game just so he will be ready to go against Curry. Mazzulla is just what Huggins loves. He is a hard nosed, physical, defender. He runs the point and gets his teammates involved. He has faced the best the big east has to offer so he will not back down against Curry by no means. He has also been splitting times at the point with freshman Truck Bryant. Bryant is a little bit more of a scorer averaging just shy of 10ppg. But he is also a physical player who will take his shots at guarding Curry. With Mazzulla, and Bryant sharing time at the point you know you will have a fresh body on Curry at all times. They should be able to wear him down some. Besides those 2 overall West Virg has transformed into a strong team that plays defense and rebounds. Huggins came in and molded Belien's players from shooters who were lax on defense, and rebounding into just that. He has also added his type of players with a strong freshman class that includes Bryant and Devon Ebanks. Huggins believes in the weight room so those players that once played for Belien have not only had their philosophy changed, but also seen their bodies changed, as Huggins notorious weight lifting program has bulked up the entire team. Again imo a physical team that WVU now is will be an issue for a finesse Davidson team. Offensively WVU is a well balanced team with Da'Sean Butler 14.6, Alex Ruoff 14.3, and Truck Bryant 9.9 ppg. Butler and Rouff are experienced, proven scorers who have evolved into strong team leaders that Huggins can count on in these big games. They have seen their fair share of big games and will not shy down. Another key to the game may be the emergence of highly touted freshman Devin Ebanks. He has been quiet to start the season, but in his last game he scored 10 points, and more importantly grabbed 17 rebounds. He has the talent to dominate at this level in time. Coming off such a game like that should give him confidence coming into tonight's game. This just gives WVU another dimension, and another strong, physical player they can count on. WVU's only loss this year was against Kentucky. Those are the teams that WVU will struggle against. They don't have a legit big man, and teams that do, like Kentucky with Patterson will give the Mountaineers trouble. There is no such big man on Davidson so I expect no such struggles. Their athleticism should allow them to win the rebounding battle. They also should be able to out talent them. Take away Curry and I don't think there is a player on Davidson that will start on WVU. That bodes well since nobody will outwork a Bob Huggins team. The last factor will be the familiarity the WVU players have with MSG. They play there at least 2, if not 3 or 4 times a year (against St John's, and Big East Tournament). Veteran players like Ruoff, Butler, Mazzulla, Wellington, and so on have played more than a handful of games at the Garden so they won't be rattled by the surroundings that's for sure. Those are just a handful of factors that I feel make WVU a strong play. There are more things I looked at that pointed to a West Va win, but i just don't feel like typing anymore. The way I see it the better team should win tomorrow.

3 Units

West Va +1.5 -110

will add another unit later just afraid to lose the 1.5....
 

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