Indiana St +2.5/+3.5
I do not expect Marshall to play, and he has been downgraded to doubtful. I do still like Indiana a lot in this spot. Even though this season the Hulman Center hasn't been as kind to them they still hold a strong home court advantage. They went 12-2 last season, and have showed they are still dangerous after leading Evansville by double digits for most of the game before falling, and then beating the best team in the league Illinois St their last time out. Even with their best player out they have still been improving as a team. They started valley play with a surprising road win over No Iowa, which was followed up with a home loss to Creighton, and then the Evansville game, which they looked much better. They then got the Redbirds in a game where there improvements finally showed. They have managed to turn their rebounding deficiencies around. After struggling earlier in the season they have out rebounded 3 of the 5 valley teams to start the season, including their last 2, drake 41-28, and Illinois St 38-33. They also do something better than Bradley that most people will find surprising. While Bradley is thought of as the 3 point shooting team it is Indiana St that shoots the 3 at a 36.7% clip at home. Bradley only shoots 27.8% from 3 on the road, and 41.3% overall. In those games Bradley is 4-3 and only averages 64.6. They also turn the ball over at a much higher rate compared to Indiana St 11.9 to/g for Indiana St, and 15 to/g for Bradley. The Sycamores also held one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the league, Evansville, without a 3 pointer for the ENTIRE game. I think Bradley is getting a little too much credit for their hot start in league play. Before that start they were looked at middle of the pack at best. They too are without their best returning player, Andrew Warren. The Braves have also struggled for parts of the season on defense. Before league play started they were a below average defensive team. They did make some improvements, but their defensive woes showed again in their last game, a loss against Creighton. Out of conference they were just 1-3 on the road, with their only win being a 4 point road win over Florida Gulf Coast. I really think we are getting a good number because of the Braves hot start. Indiana St has showed improvement as of late and expect them to build on their win against Illinois St last time out. Bradley has a match up with perennial league power So Illinois this weekend and can possibly catch them looking ahead. I think the Sycamore steal another one tonight
