where I would love to take So. Illinois with this number, I just can't. They are too young throughout to tell how they are going to go out and perform in primetime against a big name school such as Duke. I am really hoping for a low number because I think the over may be the play here. I expect the Saluki's to have much more firepower this season, and if their first game was any evidence we will see some higher scoring games involcing So Ill this season.
UC Davis
Liked what I saw from UC Davis in their 3 game tournament in Aimes. They left with a 1-2 record, but led most of the game vs host Iowa St, and the same against Wisconsin Milw. UC Davis is expected to be much improved this season, and from the looks of it I would say this is accurate. What encouraged me most from those 3 games was their ability to rebound the basketball. Since they run a 4 out 1 in lineup it is extremely important that the guards have the ability to rebound, which they did. They out rebounded Iowa St, and their all league big man Craig Brackins 41-36, Wisc Milw 37-31, and Loyola Marymount 28-22. Even though they play a 4 guard lineup, and really only have 2 big guys that play a significant role, they have a very tall lineup. Mark Payne (6'8), Joe Harden (6'8), give UC Davis good length that should help them be consistent on the glass. In each game they also showed the ability to play better defense, holding their opponents to 44% shooting. That is a big improvement compared to last years numbers. Their all league guard Mark Payne didn't even play that well averaging only 6.3ppg in the 3 game tournament. You can only expect more out of him tonight against a young Arkansas team. However if Notre Dame transfer Joe Harden can continue to play the way he has you can expect even more from Davis. Harden had 2 double doubles in Aimes, and just missed out in a 3rd, while averaging 15.3ppg.
As for Arkansas I expect them to be really down this season, at least early on. I will be looking to fade them whenever possible until they show me they have the ability to compete at a high level. Their first game against SE Louisiana confirmed my belief that the Razorbacks are in for a long season by winning in overtime 91-88. They are very inexperienced returning only 1 starter, Stefan Welsh, and he even split time. Pelphrey brought in a strong recruiting class, but it will take time to adjust playing on the D1 level. Going against experienced teams, who have some talent, such as the Aggies will be a trouble spot early on. After the news that all league performer Patrick Beverley would not be back I felt it took the air out of the program for the upcoming season. Not much is expected from them, and when not a lot is expected from an inexperienced team they usually don't perform as if they were supposed to win.
UC Davis has shown they have improved, and that they are going to compete this season. The same can not be said for Arkansas. I expect the Aggies to stay close throughout.
Liked what I saw from UC Davis in their 3 game tournament in Aimes. They left with a 1-2 record, but led most of the game vs host Iowa St, and the same against Wisconsin Milw. UC Davis is expected to be much improved this season, and from the looks of it I would say this is accurate. What encouraged me most from those 3 games was their ability to rebound the basketball. Since they run a 4 out 1 in lineup it is extremely important that the guards have the ability to rebound, which they did. They out rebounded Iowa St, and their all league big man Craig Brackins 41-36, Wisc Milw 37-31, and Loyola Marymount 28-22. Even though they play a 4 guard lineup, and really only have 2 big guys that play a significant role, they have a very tall lineup. Mark Payne (6'8), Joe Harden (6'8), give UC Davis good length that should help them be consistent on the glass. In each game they also showed the ability to play better defense, holding their opponents to 44% shooting. That is a big improvement compared to last years numbers. Their all league guard Mark Payne didn't even play that well averaging only 6.3ppg in the 3 game tournament. You can only expect more out of him tonight against a young Arkansas team. However if Notre Dame transfer Joe Harden can continue to play the way he has you can expect even more from Davis. Harden had 2 double doubles in Aimes, and just missed out in a 3rd, while averaging 15.3ppg.
As for Arkansas I expect them to be really down this season, at least early on. I will be looking to fade them whenever possible until they show me they have the ability to compete at a high level. Their first game against SE Louisiana confirmed my belief that the Razorbacks are in for a long season by winning in overtime 91-88. They are very inexperienced returning only 1 starter, Stefan Welsh, and he even split time. Pelphrey brought in a strong recruiting class, but it will take time to adjust playing on the D1 level. Going against experienced teams, who have some talent, such as the Aggies will be a trouble spot early on. After the news that all league performer Patrick Beverley would not be back I felt it took the air out of the program for the upcoming season. Not much is expected from them, and when not a lot is expected from an inexperienced team they usually don't perform as if they were supposed to win.
UC Davis has shown they have improved, and that they are going to compete this season. The same can not be said for Arkansas. I expect the Aggies to stay close throughout.
Another team I expect to be down this season is UCLA. Not down as in missing out of the NCAA tournament, but down as in out of the top 15. I think the Miami Oh game proved just that. The game was pretty much even throughout, and needed a few calls to escape with the win. UCLA showed no inside game, against a team that they normally would have had a huge advantage against. Later that week Miami traveled to Pittsburgh proceeded to get handled by the Panthers who totally out talented them from the opening tip. Now i'm not saying UCLA is going to miss the NCAA tournament or anything like that, but you can forget about a 4th consecutive final 4. I have all the respect in the world for my favorite player in the country Darren Collison, but after him they are unproved. I have never been a fan of Josh Shipp. I think he is severely over rated, and always has been. Same goes for Alfred Aboya. The freshman class is loaded, but unproven.
Michigan on the other hand I expect to be much improved. Not that the talent level is that much better (will be in Dec. when Lucas is eligible), but a young team now enters their second season under one of the best coaches in then country. I have that much respect for Belein that I believe his system, and philosophy alone can change games. He runs a unique offense, that relies heavily on 3 points, and driving to the basket, to go along with a 1-3-1 defense. Such cinks as these are tough for teams to deal with that don't play them on a normal basis. Belein has had a year to recruit some players that best fit his system, and although none of the recruits will be high impact players, each will play a significant role in making the team better. Zac Novak, Stu Douglas, and Anthony Wright are all shooters Belein brought in to fit into his system. None will be all league performers, but each will get 20 minutes a game, and have the ability to knock down some 3 pointers. All those guys need to do is complement Manny Harris who looks to be coming into his own. An all freshman performer last season, and no doubt all league 1st teamer this season, Harris looks to have improved greatly. That can be scary since he was very good last year. He is averaging 28ppg through the first 2 games, and maybe more importantly pulled down 10, and 7 rebounds respectively. They are going to need Harris to rebound like that if Michigan is going to have a good season. Harris has the capability to do so, and being the team leader he is, I have no doubt he will continue to rebound like this. The other star on the team DeShawn Simms looks to have improved as well. He had 10pts, 12rbs in his first game, and 19 and 7 in the 2nd. Again just as important as his scoring is the ability to rebound. If Simms, and Harris can rebound like this against UCLA I think Michigan has a good chance to compete. UCLA isn't dominant on the block so the ability to compete on the glass could be the difference in the game. If they are to limit any 2nd chance, or easy buckets, and make the Bruins work for each basket, I don't see UCLA as an explosive enough offense to score reguarly.
This is a good litmus test for a Michigan program on the rebound. Last season after a good opening half they eventually got beat 69-54 on their home floor against a MUCH better Bruins squad. This game will show just how much Belein's team has improved, or UCLA has slipped. This won't be a high scoring game, so 12 points is an awful lot to lay. Harris is the type of player who can create for himself, and keep the Wolverines out of those prolonged scoring slumps they have gone in the past. I am looking for a coming out party for Harris, and Belein, and Michigan to give UCLA all they can handle, and more.
GL
2 Units
UNLV/N. Arizona Under 136 -110
UNLV is an under team with Lon Kruger leading the way. His teams have always been tenacious on the defensive end of the floor. For the past few seasons Wink Adams has led the way holding opponents to under 40% shooting from the field. Things haven't changed this year as their first 2 opponents, San Diego, and Texas Pan Am shot 37%, and 36% respectively. Each team will have their conferences defensive player of the year on the court with Jermain Bishop for N. Arizona, and Wink Adams of UNLV. Adams constantly disrupts the opposing teams offensive flow with his pressure on the point guard. I expect the Lumberjacks to have an awful time dealing with UNLV's athletic defense. Other than Josh Wilson, N. Arizona really returns no significant offensive threats. I expect them to have a tough time putting points on the board, while UNLV will run a deliberate offense to go along with their in your face defense. See this game turning out much like the UNLV-SD game and stay in the 60's
UNLV/N. Arizona Under 136 -110
UNLV is an under team with Lon Kruger leading the way. His teams have always been tenacious on the defensive end of the floor. For the past few seasons Wink Adams has led the way holding opponents to under 40% shooting from the field. Things haven't changed this year as their first 2 opponents, San Diego, and Texas Pan Am shot 37%, and 36% respectively. Each team will have their conferences defensive player of the year on the court with Jermain Bishop for N. Arizona, and Wink Adams of UNLV. Adams constantly disrupts the opposing teams offensive flow with his pressure on the point guard. I expect the Lumberjacks to have an awful time dealing with UNLV's athletic defense. Other than Josh Wilson, N. Arizona really returns no significant offensive threats. I expect them to have a tough time putting points on the board, while UNLV will run a deliberate offense to go along with their in your face defense. See this game turning out much like the UNLV-SD game and stay in the 60's
Thank You
Thanks, homedawg, for your thorough analysis. I appears you really know your NCAA hoops! :aktion033
As I type this, the current lines for the 2 plays I will tail you on, UC Davis and Michigan are as follows at The Greek:
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>707</TD><TD width=180>UC Davis</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+550</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>708</TD><TD width=180>Arkansas</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-11</TD><TD align=middle width=85>146½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-750</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:20 pm (ESPN2) 2K Hoops Classic - Semifinal Round @ Madison Square Garden - New York, NY </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>727</TD><TD width=180>Michigan</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+450</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>728</TD><TD width=180>UCLA</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-9½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>127</TD><TD align=right width=45>-600</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Are these still plays for me? Also, would you recommend that I buy a 1/2 point to get Michigan +10?
Thanks in advance.
Good luck! :toast:
Thanks, homedawg, for your thorough analysis. I appears you really know your NCAA hoops! :aktion033
As I type this, the current lines for the 2 plays I will tail you on, UC Davis and Michigan are as follows at The Greek:
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>707</TD><TD width=180>UC Davis</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+550</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>708</TD><TD width=180>Arkansas</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-11</TD><TD align=middle width=85>146½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-750</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:20 pm (ESPN2) 2K Hoops Classic - Semifinal Round @ Madison Square Garden - New York, NY </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>727</TD><TD width=180>Michigan</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+450</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>728</TD><TD width=180>UCLA</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-9½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>127</TD><TD align=right width=45>-600</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Are these still plays for me? Also, would you recommend that I buy a 1/2 point to get Michigan +10?
Thanks in advance.
Good luck! :toast:
